Ir. Adi Indrayanto, M.Sc., Ph.D. - LP4

Report
ADI INDRAYANTO
FGD SCIENCE &
TECHNOLOGY
FORECASTING
LP4 ITB
INDONESIA ICT &
ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY
INDONESIA ICT MARKET
OVERVIEW
INDONESIA VS ASEAN COUNTRIES
• Indonesia becomes the largest spender on IT in South
East Asia ranked 19th globally, growth 15% CAGR to
2014 (Source: IDC)
• IT spending $10.9 billion USD in 2011,
• raise 18.3% to $12.9 billion USD for 2012,
• and may reach $17.8 billion USD by 2016,
• mostly on Hardware (80%)
(Source: Global Business Guide Indonesia – 2013)
ASEAN ICT SPENDING IN 2015
(SOURCE: IDC)
ICT COMPETITIVENESS
(SOURCE: THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2012-2013, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM)
GLOBAL COMPETITIVE INDEX
(SOURCE: THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2012-2013, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM)
GLOBAL COMPETITIVE INDEX
(SOURCE: THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2012-2013, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM)
BROADBAND QUALITY
(SOURCE: ITU 2012)
INTERNET MARKET
• Indonesia the 5th largest Internet market in Asia
after China, Japan, India, and South Korea.
• Internet users has grown from 2 million (2000) to
more than 31 million (2010), and reach 55 million
(2012).
• Forecast in 2015 will be 125 million (baseline) or
150 million (optimistic), growth rate more than 30%
in the next 5 years. (source: redwing-asia)
INTERNET USERS BY 2015
(SOURCE: REDWING-ASIA)
INTERNET USERS AGE GROUP
• It is an emerging market, has younger audiences.
• By 2011, 73% internet users are between 15 – 34
age groups, where 36% is women. It is only about
13% of total population. (source: comScore)
• However, after 2011 the 25-50 age group has
grown over the past two years. (source: redwing-asia)
• The user base is relatively spread evenly across all
age groups.
• Potential growth is still very high.
USERS DEMOGRAPHIC
(SOURCE: NATIONAL STATISTICS AGENCY)
More than 30 years span
of demographic bonus
MOBILE INTERNET
• Mobile (wireless) infrastructure is more developed compare
to fixed (wired) infrastructure, cover 90% of Indonesian’s
population.
• In 2010, there are more than 200 million mobile cellular
subscriptions, and 15 million of them with broadband
access.
• 63% internet users have adopted mobile internet.
• The highest level of mobile phone ownership is in 8 – 24
years old, with 80% penetration.
• Indonesia among the highest ranks in the world for mobile
browsing intensity (633 pages per month/person).
(Source: Market Alert No. 2/2011 by MATRADE Jakarta)
MOBILE USERS STATISTIC
(SOURCE: MASTEL ICT OUTLOOK 2012)
PRIMARY REASONS
• Three primary reasons why mobile internet market is
big in Indonesia:
1. Price
Mobile (wireless) has many cheaper internet packages compare to
wired broadband internet (mostly on corporate market).
2. Infrastructure
Mobile infrastructure is more developed for last miles internet access,
cover about 90% of populations, suitable for achipelago country with
huge amount of islands (17.508 islands, only 6000 inhabited). Wired
broadband is more concentrated in urban areas.
Mobile penetration (9%) is higher than wired broadband internet (3%)
(Source: AT Kearney & GSMA 2011)
MOBILE PENETRATION
(SOURCE: AT KEARNEY & GSMA 2011)
MOBILE OPERATORS
(SOURCE: TELKOM 2010)
MOBILE FREQUENCY BANDS
(SOURCE: DITJEND SDPPI KEMKOMINFO)
PRIMARY REASONS
• ... Three primary reasons ... :
3.
Culture
Indonesian spend about 17.2 online hours/month.
Internet usages (% of internet users):
42% email;
39% reading newspapers;
29% searching information of products and services;
27% reading magazines;
23% chatting;
50% do online shopping, only1% spending their online time for shopping;
35 million has account in Facebook (2nd largest Facebook users in the
world);
3rd highest number of tweets in the world.
(Source: Market Alert No. 2/2011 by MATRADE Jakarta)
INDONESIA MOBILE PHONES
MARKET TRENDS
CURRENT MARKET CONDITION
• The Middle-lower Segment, in Second and Third tier
cities, has long been the Biggest Market for Feature
Phones, especially Local Brands
• Feature Phones sold More Units, around 84 Percent of
the Market
• Local Brands, Cross and Mito, are the Top Five Mobile
Phone Brands alongside Nokia, Samsung and
Research in Motion (RIM) – (Source: IDC)
• Most Local Brands were Manufactured in China
LOCAL BRAND CROSS CASE
• CROSS was Founded in 2008
• In Year 2012 Sales Grew Two-fold, in Runner-up Position
after Nokia (the Third is Samsung, the Fourth is MITO,
and the Fifth is Blackberry)
• The Biggest Market is in Java (Jawa Island) with 55
Percent of Sales
• Offered at least 45 Models of Featured Phones
• Introduce 5 New Models every Month (Indonesians
change their phones every 9 months on average)
• Introduce 7 Android Smartphones with Price Less than
$155
INDONESIAN CONSUMERS
• 61 Percent of the Population is Middle Class (Source: BI)
• 90 Million People will enter the Consumer Class, with
an Annual Net Income of US$3,600 by 2030 (Source:
McKinsey)
• Population: 240 million, 55% under 30 years old
• 96% of Indonesians Use Social Media
• 12% of Global Tweets from Indonesia (Indonesia the
4th Largest Twitter Country in the World)
• 87% Twitter Messages are sent via Mobile Phones
• Indonesia is also the 4th Largest Facebook Country
MARKET FACTS
•
•
•
•
Connected mobile devices: 280 million
3G subscriptions: 30 milion
Mobile phone ownership: 80%
Smartphone Penetration: 24%
• PC or Laptop Owners: 5%
• Some of the Cheapest Mobile Tariffs in the World
• 50% Mobile Sold Below $50, 85% Mobile Sold Below
$100, 3% Mobile Sold Above $250 (Source: IDC)
• Average Price of Mobile Sold: $90
• Market Circulation 3.5 million units phones per months
(100 local brands)
MARKET FACTS
IMPORT HANDPHONE KONTRIBUSI DEFISIT
NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA
• Nilai Import Handphone Rp 29 Trilyun
• 31% dari Total Defisit Neraca Perdagangan
Indonesia Sebesar US$ 8 Milyar
• 2013, Import HP Sebesar 15 Ton Unit
(Source: Majalah ICT)
MODEL EKOSISTEM INDUSTRI TIK
INDUSTRI PERANGKAT, OPERATOR, HINGGA KONTEN
STRUKTUR INDUSTRI TIK
(SOURCE: MP3EI)
Layer 0
• Content Industry
• (digital publishing, e-comerce, animation, etc)
Layer 1
• Software & Telematic Applications
• (e-Gov, e-Health, e-Education, etc)
Layer 2
• Internet Service Provider
Layer 3
• Network (Infrastructure) Provider
Layer 4
• Integration, Installation & Maintenance
Layer 5
• ICT Devices Manufactures (OEM, ODM)
Layer 6
• ICT Components Industry
Layer 7
• Component Materials Industry
INDUSTRI NETWORK &
SERVICE PROVIDER
(SOURCE: MP3EI)
Layer 0
• Content Industry
• (digital publishing, e-comerce, animation, etc)
Layer 1
• Software & Telematic Applications
• (e-Gov, e-Health, e-Education, etc)
Layer 2
• Internet Service Provider
Layer 3
• Network (Infrastructure) Provider
Layer 4
• Integration, Installation & Maintenance
Layer 5
• ICT Devices Manufactures (OEM, ODM)
Layer 6
• ICT Components Industries
Layer 7
• Component Materials Industries
INDUSTRI SOFTWARE, APLIKASI & KONTEN
(SOURCE: MP3EI)
Layer 0
• Content Industry
• (digital publishing, e-comerce, animation, etc)
Layer 1
• Software & Telematic Applications
• (e-Gov, e-Health, e-Education, etc)
Layer 2
• Internet Service Provider
Layer 3
• Network (Infrastructure) Provider
Layer 4
• Integration, Installation & Maintenance
Layer 5
• ICT Devices Manufactures (OEM, ODM)
Layer 6
• ICT Components Industry
Layer 7
• Component Materials Industry
INDUSTRI PERANGKAT TELEMATIKA
(SOURCE: MP3EI)
Layer 0
• Content Industry
• (digital publishing, e-comerce, animation, etc)
Layer 1
• Software & Telematic Applications
• (e-Gov, e-Health, e-Education, etc)
Layer 2
• Internet Service Provider
Layer 3
• Network (Infrastructure) Provider
Layer 4
• Integration, Installation & Maintenance
Layer 5
• ICT Devices Manufactures (OEM, ODM)
Layer 6
• ICT Components Industry
Layer 7
• Component Materials Industry
VALUE CHAIN INDUSTRI
ELEKTRONIKA
EFEK DARI MODULARITY PRODUK
VALUE CHAIN INDUSTRI PERANGKAT TIK
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
VALUE CHAIN INDUSTRI KOMPONEN
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
INDUSTRI KOMPONEN ENTRY BARRIER
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
VALUE CHAIN ODM/OEM
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
ODM/OEM ENTRY BARRIER
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
VALUE CHAIN MANUFAKTUR
ELEKTRONIKA
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
MANUFAKTUR ENTRY BARRIER
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
PEMETAAN SDM - INDUSTRI TIK
(SOURCE: MP3EI)
PEMETAAN SDM - INDUSTRI TIK
(SOURCE: MP3EI)
VALUE CHAIN MODULARITY
(SOURCE: GANGNES, ASSCHE, 2011)
Horizontally Specialized
Vertically Integrated
VALUE CHAIN MODULARITY
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
VALUE CHAIN MODULARITY
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
CONTOH LEAD FIRMS
(SOURCE: STURGEON & KAWAKAMI, 2010)
No
Segmen Pasar
Jenis Produk
Lead Firms
1
Komputer
PC (dekstop, notebook,
netbook), embedded
computers
IBM, Fujitsu, Siemens, HP,
Dell, Apple, Acer, Lenovo
2
Peripheral
Komputer
Printer, Fax, Scanner,
Mesin Photocopy
HP, Xerox, Epson, Kodak,
Cannon, Lexmark, Acer,
Fujitsu, Sharp
3
Consumer
electronics
TV, Home HiFi, portable
audio&video, game
consoles, toys, musical
equip., mobile phone
handset
Philips, Toshiba, Sony,
Sharp, Apple, Nintendo,
Microsoft, Samsung, LG,
NEC, Matsushita, Hitachi,
HTC, Politron
4
Networking
Public & private
communication network,
internet, mobile phone
infrastructure
Alcatel, Nortel, Cisco,
Motorola, Juniper,
Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia
CONTOH CONTRACT MANUFACTURER
(SOURCE: STURGEON & KAWAKAMI, 2010)
No
Negara
Jenis Service
Contract Manufacturer
1
Taiwan, China
EMS
Foxconn (Hon Hai)
2
Taiwan, China
ODM
Quanta Computer
3
Taiwan, China
ODM
Compal Electronics
4
Canada
EMS
Celestica
5
US & Singapore
EMS
Flextronics
6
Japan
EMS
SIIX
7
Luxembourg
EMS
Elcoteq
8
Germany
EMS
Zollner Elektronik
9
Singapore
EMS
Beyonics
10
Singapore
EMS
Venture
11
Indonesia
EMS
SatNusa
CONTOH PLATFORM LEADER
(SOURCE: STURGEON & KAWAKAMI, 2010)
No
Segmen Pasar
Jenis Produk
Firms
1
Komputer
Chipset
PC dekstop, notebook,
netbook
INTEL
2
Komputer,
Consumer
Electronics
PC desktop, tablet,
portable audio & video,
mobile phone handset
APPLE
3
Audio & Video
Chipset
CD, DVD, DVR, HDTV
MediaTEK
NILAI TAMBAH DALAM VALUE CHAIN
(SOURCE: MUDAMBI, 2008)
Figure 5: The Smile of Value Creation
Contract
Manufacturer
Platform
Leader
Lead
Firms
ADDED-VALUE PADA VALUE CHAIN
INDUSTRI ELEKTRONIKA
FENOMENA SHAN ZHAI – PELAJARAN DARI CHINA
VALUE CHAIN MOBILE PHONES
(SOURCE: DTI, 2012)
GLOBAL MOBILE PHONE INDUSTRY VALUE 2010
(SOURCE: DTI, 2012)
CONTOH BOM PHONES BB CURVE 8300
(SOURCE: DEDRICK, KRAEMER, LINDEN, 2010)
Table A-3. Key Inputs in the RIM Curve 8300
Component
Most Likely
Supplier
Company HQ
Location
Estimated
Factory Price
Price as % of
total factory
cost
Gross
Margin
Est’d Value
Capture
Operating
Margin
Display
Display Module
Unknown
Asia
$11.68
11%
16%
$1.87
0%
Processors
Baseband Chip
Marvell
Texas
Instruments
US
$14.60
13%
48%
$7.01
-4%
US
$1.88
2%
53%
$1.00
25%
Intel
US
$9.25
9%
52%
$4.81
24%
Processors
Storage and
memory
Camera
PCB
Cellular
Cellular
Audio processor
Flash and SDRAM
multi-chip package
Camera module
STMicro
Europe
$8.50
8%
35%
$2.98
-5%
Main PCB
AT&S
Europe
$5.17
5%
18%
$0.93
9%
RF Transceiver
Freescale
US
$2.35
2%
33%
$0.78
<0
Power Amplifier
Freescale
Bluetooth chip
CSR
Battery
Battery Pack
Unknown
Keypad
Keypad assembly
Trackball
mechanism
Unknown
Unknown
EDGE royalties
Various
Bluetooth
Trackball
License
US
$1.75
2%
33%
$0.58
<0
Europe
$1.90
2%
47%
$0.89
18%
Japan (cell)
$4.24
4%
16%
$0.68
1%
$1.71
2%
33%
$0.56
$0.42
0%
33%
$0.14
Various
Sub-Total
$5.00
$68.45
5%
63%
33%
$1.65
Other parts
$31.85
29%
33%
$10.51
Estimated assembly and test
$7.95
7%
5.0%
$0.40
Estimated factory cost
$108.25
100%
Source: iSuppli (2007) and authors’ calculations.
Note: Blank “Operating Margin” means the actual company was not known (gross margin is industry average)
$34.77
0%
PERBANDINGAN BOM 3 MEREK MOBILE PHONES
(SOURCE: DEDRICK, KRAEMER, LINDEN, 2010)
Table 1. Comparison of Inputs as Percentage of Factory Cost: Three Phones
Motorola
V3 "RAZR"
Treo 650
CDMA
RIM Curve
8300
2004
2004
2007
Display
Processors
Storage
Memory
Assembly
Camera
Cellular and
Bluetooth chips
30%
10%
9%
2%
4%
5%
23%
16%
3%
5%
6%
3%
11%
13%
6%
4%
4%
Cellular license
4%
incl.in chip
cost
5%
Battery
3%
5%
4%
PCBs
5%
5%
5%
Enclosure
2%
2%
5%
Keypad
6%
1%
2%
5%
Not Applicable
Year of
introduction
Software Not Applicable
9%
7%
8%
Subtotal for key
components
86%
82%
72%
Hundreds of
other
components
14%
18%
28%
100%
100%
100%
640
1,040
585
TOTAL
Total Parts
S) providers. With a cluster of Shanzhai manufacturing players, a new product can be launched to
et within 2 months, compared to 6-12 months of R & D requirement for international brands. Not on
SHANZHAI MOBILE PHONE VALUE CHAIN
omponent suppliers contribute specifically
on the
vertical dimension,
but also those companies with R
(SOURCE:
DIGITIMES,
2009)
ions are all linked together on a horizontal idimension as Fg ure 1 illustrates.
Figure 1. Value chain of Shanzhai mobile phone
Low overhead operation is also a key element. Normally, a mobile phone company invests in R&D, design,
promotion, and channel expenses and this total cost is added onto the price of a mobile phone. I n general, the
scale of a Shanzhai mobile phone company is around 20 employees and can be done with as few as 3 people.
One is responsible for sourcing the solution and components, the second one works with outsourced factories,
while the third person cooperates with channels on rebates. These are the main cost advantages of Shanzhai
(SOURCE: DIGITIMES, 2009)
mobile phone companies.
BIAYA SHANZHAI VS MEREK INTERNASIONAL
Table 2. Cost comparison of Shanzhai and international
r
ba nd mobile phones
Item
Shanzhai
International Brand
BOM Cost
$37
$52
Logistic & Assembly
$7
$9
Subtotal
$44
$61
Markup from OEM
$7
$21
FOB Price
$51
$82
Gross Margin of OEM
14%
26%
VAT
$0
$21
Markup from Channel
$47
$20
Retail Price
$98
$123
Management Research
Gross Margin of Channel
48% Australian Journal of Business and 16%
Source: Digitimes (2009)
Difference
$15
$2
$17
$14
$31
12%
$21
$27
$25
Vol.1
No.3 | June-2011
32%
Market
3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
5
4
3.1 The Business Model Approach
3
Competitive strategy business model andValue
proposition
The research applies the framework of Chesbrough and Rosenbloom’s
takes
Beijing Tianyu
2
Nokia
Communication Equipment Co. Ltd. (Tianyu) as the subject of the case study 1since Tianyu is given the title
of
Samsung
‘The King of Shanzhai’ in the industry and has the top market share 0among domestic mobile phone
Tianyu
manufacturers in mainland China. The study further compares Tianyu with Nokia, which has the highest
Value networkmarket leader. By comparing
Value chain
handset market coverage globally and Samsung which is the second
the business
models of these 3 companies, we intend to find out how value is created and how they capture it.
Cost and profit
This research focuses on studying a firm’s business model and looks into value creation and the capture process.
graph for three
business models
Further questions can query about what the definition and elementsFigure
of 2.a A radar
business
model
are, as well as
STRATEGI
PENINGKATAN NILAI TAMBAH
BERGERAK DARI NILAI TAMBAH RENDAH KE NILAI TAMBAH TINGGI
Using Portelligent teardown reports (Portelligent 2006, 2005b) , we compared the key parts in
one model of Apple’s iPod (30GB Video iPod from 2005) and a Hewlett -Packard notebook
computer (nc6230, also from 2005). Table 1 shows how the two systems compare in terms of
theirCONTOH
key inputs as a percentage
of factory cost (the
total of t he KOMPONEN
inputs).
PERSENTASI
BIAYA
30 GB
(SOURCE: DEDRICK, KRAEMER, LINDEN, 2008)
IPOD
Table 1. Comparison of Inputs as Percentage of Factory Cost: 30GB V ideo iPod
and HP nc6230 notebook
Software
Video iPod
Not Applicable
HP nc6230
12%
Storage
51%
13%
Display
16%
16%
Processors
9%
27%
Assembly
5%
3%
Battery
2%
5%
Memory
4%
4%
PCBs
2%
3%
Enclosure
2%
1%
Input Device(s)9
Subtotal for key components
Hundreds of other components
1%
90%
10%
2%
86%
14%
Table 2. Derivation of Apple’s Gross Margin on 30G
Retail Price
Distributor Discount (10%)
Retailer Discount (15%)
Sub-Total
(estimated wholesale price)
Factory Cost
Remaining Balance
(estimated Apple gross profit)
Apple Gross Margin ($80/$224)
Source: Authors’ calculations; see text.
$299
($30)
($45)
$224
($144)
$80
36%
Apple’s estimated gross profit on these units would be $
36 percent of the $224 estimated wholesale price. As a
corporate gross margin for all products in the year endin
Apple’s corporate number reflects various iPod -related
not included in our analysis, and also reflects margins fo
TOTAL
100%
100%
Total Parts
451
2,196
Note: iPod software was developed in-house by Apple so there is no software license fee in the bill of materials.
Figure 4. Value capture in Video iPod and HP notebook as percent of wholesale price
CONTOH MARGIN NILAI TAMBAH
DEDRICK, KRAEMER, LINDEN, 2008) HP nc6230 notebook
Video iPod(SOURCE:
30G
e 4. Value capture in Video iPod and HP notebook as percent of wholesale price
Video iPod 30G
HP nc6230 notebook
HP NC6230 Notebook
Notes: Margins
byIpod
country refer to gross margins associated with inputs produced by firms headquartered in that
Video
30 GB
country (regardless of where the inputs were manufactured). COGS is cost of goods sold, including purchased
inputs and direct labor.
BERKEMBANG MELINGKUPI
VALUE CHAIN LAIN
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
TEACHING FACTORY
INTERAKSI DUNIA AKADEMIK & INDUSTRI
Industri
Komponen
Perguruan Tinggi
& Politeknik
ODM
Industri
Komponen
ODM/OEM
TECHNO Industri
PARK Perangkat
Teaching
Factory
Electronics
Manufacturing
Service (EMS)
PEMETAAN SDM - INDUSTRI TIK
(SOURCE: MP3EI)
NILAI TAMBAH DALAM VALUE CHAIN
(SOURCE: MUDAMBI, 2008)
Figure 5: The Smile of Value Creation
Contract
Manufacturer
Platform
Leader
Lead
Firms
Pera
n ITB
KORIDOR EKONOMI – INDUSTRI TIK
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
INTERNATIONAL HUB – INDUSTRI TIK
(SOURCE: PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB)
KESIMPULAN & USULAN
• Industri Elektronika Dunia Saat Ini Value Chain
nya Terfragmentasi
• Trend Pergerakan Industri Elektronika Dunia, untuk
beberapa Value Chain nya, Bergerak ke Negara
Berkembang  Low Labours, Emerging Markets
• Industri Elektronika Indonesia Tidak Bisa Lepas dari
Value Chain Industri Elektronika Dunia
• Industri Dalam Negeri (IDN) Indonesia masih
Terisolasi dari Value Chain Industri Elektronika
Dunia
KESIMPULAN & USULAN
• Pemerintah Indonesia Belum Memiliki Strategi
untuk Mengembangkan Industri Elektronika
• ITB WAJIB Membantu Pemerintah untuk
Menyusun Strategi Pengembangan Industri
Elektronika
• ITB Sebaiknya bukan Hanya Kontribusi pada
Pembentukan SDM dan Penguasan Sains &
Teknologi saja Tetapi Juga perlu Kontribusi pada
Penyusunan Kebijakan Industri Elektronika dan
Pembentukan Value Chain Industri Elektronika di
Indonesia
KESIMPULAN & USULAN
• Fokus Teknik Elektronika Umumnya Masih Pada
Pengembangan SDM dari Sisi “Hardcore”
Engineering (Tukang), Siapa Yang Memikirkan
Industri Elektronika dan Kebijakan Industri Bidang
Elektronika di Indonesia?
• Kerjasama Multi-Disiplin di ITB Perlu DIPERKUAT
• Ada Program Studi Multi-Disiplin yang Fokus pada
Industri Elektronika dan Kebijakan Industri
Elektronika
THANK YOU
PUSAT MIKROELEKTRONIKA ITB
JL. GANESHA 10, BANDUNG / Email: [email protected]

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