Presentation - HIDALGO COUNTY MPO

Report
Economic Costs of Critical Infrastructure
Failure in El Paso-Juarez Region
Border to Border Transportation Conference
November 20, 2014
Jeff Shelton, Sharada Vadali, Gabriel Valdez, Shailesh Chandra, Arturo Bujanda
Texas A&M Transportation Institute
Mike Medina
El Paso Metropolitan Planning Organization
Contents
•
•
•
•
The Context
Extreme Event Modeling Framework
Economic Framework
Concluding Remarks
2
The Context: Cross Border Trade Flows
Trade Value (Billions $) : 2013 ($507 Billion) ($280 b imports and $226 b exports)
3
TX Land Ports of Entry Are Vital for
Trade and Will Continue to be so..
Top 10 Ports by Trade Value (Billions of US$) ranked by total trade for USA- NAFTA partner trade in 2011. (U.S. DOT,
Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics,TransBorder Freight Data, 2012)
Name
Export Value Import
(Truck)
Value
(Truck)
54
63
58
40
37
26
% Export
Value
%Import
Value
% Total
Trade Value
Laredo, TX
Detroit, MI
Buffalo-Niagara, NY
Total Trade
Value
(Truck)
117
99
62
17
18
12
21
13
9
19
16
10
El Paso, TX
Port Huron, MI
51
48
22
30
29
18
7
10
10
6
8
8
Otay Mesa, CA
33
11
22
3
7
5
Champlain Rouses Pt,
NY
Hidalgo, TX
Santa Teresa, NM
24
10
12
3
4
4
21
18
9
7
15
10
3
2
5
3
3
3
Pembina, ND
17
12
5
4
2
3
4
Aging Infrastructure – Underinvestment or
Disinvestment in Critical Links Could be
Costly…
5
What did we do?
• Developed a DTA model
of the El Paso/Juarez
region
• Ports-of-entry
• Traffic signals
• Accurate geometry
• Traffic flow models
6
Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling
Framework to Simulate Traffic Effects of
Failures…
Port of Entry (POE) and
the Bridge of the
Americas (BOTA)
Simulation Area: LPOE connecting to
I-10 interchange.
7
Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling –
Simulated Area and Infrastructure..
8
Modeling Framework to Simulate Economic
Implications... Teasing out Domestic,
International Flows
9
Modeling Framework to Simulate Economic
Costs to System Users
Data Output
Base Case
Short Term
Long Term
Zonal Trips
Zonal Travel
Times
Decide ‘Hotspot’ Zones
based on Trip Volumes
Time Delay Costs-Truckers/Carriers
Trip Diversion Rates
Zonal Travel
Distances
Operating Costs-Truckers/Carriers
Fuel Costs-Truckers/Carriers
Cost Parameter and Inputs
Industry Costs-Additional Inventory Costs
Shippers and
Carriers
Industry Costs-Additional Freight Shipment
Costs
Border Delay Costs
10
Costs Imposed to Society Can be
Large…
11
What does this mean?
12
Average Travel Time - Trucks
Before event
31 mins
Next day
130 mins
Several weeks
42 mins
13
Preliminary Results and Conclusions
 For the term immediate to disruption, the loss is at an
accelerated rate of $2.5 million per day for the shippers
and carriers. Peak periods have the highest loss.
 Longer term costs on a per day basis are lower but will
accumulate depending on length of replacement
schedules and ability of trucks to shift to alternate POEs
besides Zaragoza or Santa Teresa.
 Regional spillover costs (indirect and induced) are not
considered.
 Possibilities include exploring mitigation strategies and
looking at important supply chains and trade flows.
14
Concluding Remarks (contd.)
 Vital for agencies to consider regional resilience
as part of preparedness and,
 Continuity planning for businesses along
corridors.
15
Thank You
Questions?
16

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