Hazus Analysis

Report
Significance of the Pakistan
Floods of 2010 to America
Could it happen here?
Michele Seib, CFM
Zachary Baccala, CFM
1
Index of Analysis
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•
•
•
•
Background of floods along Indus River
Hydrology of the Pakistan flood of 2010
Similarities in U.S. Watersheds
Hazus Analysis of the Missouri River
Impact Study – Could a similar catastrophe
happen here?
2
Background – Indus River Facts
• Primary source of agricultural water supply
• Provides 45% of electricity for Pakistan
• Majority of population live in the watershed
http://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photos/01/24/f8/5e/indus-river-and-fields.jpg obtained 5/15/2011
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/2YKQLSdquC0/TaGEbBL0NfI/AAAAAAAAEbk/RUTiBuswuSU/s1600/Indus
+River+Pakistan+by+all+about+pakistran+%252819%2529.jpg obtained
5/15/2011
3
Background – 2010 Flood Facts
According to the United Nations OCHA,
•
•
•
•
•
•
17.2 million people directly affected
1,539 lives claimed
1.2 million homes damaged or destroyed
3.2 million hectares of farmland destroyed
Damaged 7,820 schools
Massive infrastructure damage
Photo of flooding in
Muzaffargarh
(AFP/Getty Images)
4
Background – Planning Factors
Location of
Development
Lack of
maintenance
Flood
warning
system
Lack of
storage
FLOODING
http://www.floodrelief.us/wpcontent/uploads/2010/08/pakistan-flood-2009-817-12-41-15.jpg obtained 05/15/2011
5
Background – Flood Distribution
based on: http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,1518,711885,00.html, Google Earth
and Times Atlas, flooding zones as of 2010-8-26
Hydrology – Indus River
• Precipitation and temperature primary
contributors
• Links Himalayans and groundwater from Indus
alluvium fans
• Large number of dams and barrages
• Total Drainage area = 450,000 square miles
7
Hydrology – Flood Disaster Factors
Duration of
monsoon
season
Higher than
normal
precipitation
Lack of
maintenance
Design
Criteria of
structures
http://www.inmysense.com/wpcontent/uploads/2010/11/flood-pakistan.jpg
8
Hydrology – Indus River
Tarbela
Kalabaugh
Chashma
Guddu
Taunsa
Sukkur
Kotri
http://ancien.riob.org/ag2000/pakistan.htm
9
Hydrology – Historical Peaks
Site
Design cfs
MaximumQ cfs
Date
2010 Q cfs
Tarbela
1,500,000
832,000
July 30 2010
833,000
Kalabagh
950,000
937,453
July 30 2010
937,453
Chashma
950,000
1,038,873
August 1 2010
1,038,873
Taunsa
1,100,000
959,991
August 2 2010
959,991
Guddu
1,200,000
1,199,672
August 15 1976
1,148,738
Sukkur
1,500,000
1,166,574
August 15 1986
1,130,995
Kotri
875,000
980,329
August 14 1986
964,897
Data obtain from the Pakistan Meteorology Department
10
Hydrology – Study Locations
Tarbela
Taunsa
Guddu
65,000 sq miles
180,000 sq miles
293,300 sq miles
833,000 cfs
959,991 cfs
1,130,000 cfs
11
Similarities – US Watersheds
Missouri River Basin
•Average discharge 86,340 cfs
•529,350 square miles
•Sourced by several springs
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/images/mrr_map_1.jpg
12
Similarities – US Watersheds
Fort Peck Dam, MT
Sioux City, IA
Bismark, ND
Hermann, MO
13
Similarities – Gage Pairs
Fort Peck Dam Montana
Tarbela
65,000 sq miles
833,000 cfs
57,566 sq miles
Q100 = 45,620 cfs
Q500= 58,770 cfs
Historical Peak= 51,000 cfs (1946)
Bismark North Dakota
Taunsa
180,000 sq miles
959,991 cfs
186,400 sq miles
Q100 = 325,200 cfs
Q500=548,500 cfs
Historical Peak= 500,000 cfs (1952)
Sioux City Iowa
Guddu
293,300 sq miles
1,130,000cfs
314,600 sq miles
Q100 = 445,600 cfs
Q500=571,100 cfs
Historical Peak= 441,000 cfs (1952)
14
Similarities – Gage Pair
Hermann Missouri
Kotri
*450,000 sq miles
964,000 cfs
573,566 sq miles
Q100 = 703,900 cfs
Q500= 862,100 cfs
Historical Peak= 750,000 cfs (1993)
15
Hydrologically
speaking, could an
event happen along
the Missouri River?
16
Hazus Modelled Losses
17
•Hazus MR5
Hazus
•DEMs from USGS Seamless
•DEMs for Canada from SRTM 90mtr data
•Resampled to 30mtr
•20 sq mile drainage area used for stream network
creation
•Single Discharge Methodology
•Section 1: 833,000
•Section 2: 959,991
•Section 3: 1,140,000
18
Hazus – Selected Communities
• Bismarck, North Dakota
• 1952 Floods
•27.9 feet, 200 homes destroyed
•300 head of cattle
•Modeled Flood (Section 2)
•31 feet
•7,124 homes impacted
•3,788 substantially damage
•$1,232,086,000 Total Loss
•Mandan, ND also heavily impacted
19
Hazus – Selected Communities
• Sioux City, Iowa
• 1952 Floods
•24.3 feet
•$3,264,000 in damages
•Modeled Flood (Section 3)
•33 feet
•5,240 homes impacted
•3,246 substantially damage
•$1,694,734,000 Total Loss
•Dakota County, NE also heavily
impacted
20
Hazus – Selected Communities
• Omaha, Nebraska
• 1952 Flood
•30.25 feet
•$445,018,700 in damages
•414,000 cfs
•5 miles wide
•Altered course of river
•Modeled Flood (Section 3)
•33 feet
•9,463 homes impacted
•7,665 substantially damage
•$2,742,164,000 Total Loss
•Almost 7 miles wide
•1,140,000 cfs
21
Hazus Agricultural Analysis
•Parameter and Losses
•Agriculture Parameter: May 1st
•Agricultural Losses Totaling $352,450,000
•Majority Corn, Soybeans, Wheat and Oats
Corn
$45,927,074
$45,489,204
Soybeans
Wheat
Oats
$42,089,290
$6,464,674
22
Hazus
•General Building Stock
•$7,070,296,000 Total Losses
Nebraska
MT
Iowa
Stanley
Hughes
Yankton
Union
Clay
Morton
Burleigh
Monona
Pottawattamie
Fremont
Richland
Cedar
Boyd
Thurston
Douglas
Dakota
• Schools
•59 schools
•$216,594,290 Building Damage
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Burt
•Shelters
•Displaced Population: 106,845
•Short Term Needs: 93,088
Building Loss Ratio
South Dakota
23
Other Impacts
•Transportation Systems
•Airports
•4 large airports, including Eppley Airfield in Omaha,
Nebraska and Sioux Gateway Airport (Colonel Bud Day
Field) in Sioux City, Iowa
•Roads
•235 Major Highway segments
•32 of Highway crossings
•Rails
•1,085 miles inundated
•8 rail crossings
24
Environmental Hazards
•Over 7500 Public Water Source
wells
•TRI Sites
•173 Sites
•Agricultural, Fuel Depots,
Industrial chemicals
•Waste Water Treatment Facilities
•Over 40
•16 Classified as Major
25
Environmental Hazards
•Over 7500 Public Water Source
wells
•TRI Sites
•173 Sites
•Agricultural, Fuel Depots,
Industrial chemicals
•Waste Water Treatment Facilities
•Over 40
•16 Classified as Major
26
Could such an event happen in the US?
•From an engineering perspective
•Yes, but only at the mouth
•From a economic perspective
•Relief Aid
•Income/Educational differences
•Government Organizations
•From a quality of life perspective
27
Questions
• Michele Seib: [email protected]
•Zachary Baccala: [email protected]
28

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