8 February 2011 - APAN Community SharePoint

Report
Welcome to Focus 2011
8 February 2011
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow
Focus 2011 Opening Remarks
01/28/2011 Page-1
UNCLASSIFIED
Overview
• Why are we here?
– The Need
– The Vision
• How do we get there?
– The challenge space
– Rigor versus intuition
– Modeling and simulation
• The HSCB Program
–
–
–
–
–
–
Vision and themes
Phases I and II
How success is gauged
Engagement and coordination
Highlights of our work
Where we are going
• Where you come in
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-2
UNCLASSIFIED
Why are we here?
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-3
UNCLASSIFIED
The Operating Environment
Conventional Warfare
Irregular Warfare
The center of gravity is often
the adversary’s military
forces and political
leadership
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-4
The center of
gravity is usually
the indigenous
population
Understanding the physical
terrain is key
Understanding the
social & cultural
terrain is key
Regular forces of nation
states that are separate and
distinct from the civilian
population
Often, irregular state
forces or non-state
networks embedded
within civilian population
Focus on the kinetic
destruction of the
adversaries warfighting
material from stand-off
distances
Focus on non-kinetic
influence of local and
regional populations
requiring face-to-face
interaction
UNCLASSIFIED
Quadrennial Defense Review
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-5
UNCLASSIFIED
QDR Technology Area Study –
Building Security Capacity of Partner States (BSC)
• Whole-of-Government activities that directly support the
development of the capacity and capability of foreign
security forces and their sustaining institutions.
• HSCB-sponsored technologies support most of the top 10
enabling technologies for BSC:
1. Immersive and Mixed Reality Simulations
2. Information Sharing
3. Human Socio-cultural Multi-scale, Hybrid,
and Federated Modeling
4. Adaptive Planning & Assessment Tools
5. HSC Knowledge Management Enterprise
6. Human Language Technology
7. Social Networking Tools and Methods
8. Geo-spatial Information and Services
9. Knowledge Visualization
10. Interactive Language Training Tools
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-6
UNCLASSIFIED
Long-Term Vision
• Soldier as cultural chameleon,
• Actionable estimation of 2nd and 3rd order effects
across the PMESII spectrum
• Reliable forecasting of regional
stability on a short time scale
• Routine exploitation of social media for
intelligence, understanding and
engagement, training, info sharing and
collaboration
• Ability to track and shape viral communication
across distributed dynamic social networks
• Data, technologies, and methods support a
timely, relevant Data to Decisions process
• High fidelity “social radar”
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-7
UNCLASSIFIED
How do we realize the vision?
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-8
UNCLASSIFIED
Understand the Landscape
Changing
World
DoD
Capabilities
DoD Industrial
Base
Dynamic
Threat Space
DoDfunded
Evolving
Technology
INVEST WHERE WE MUST…
LEVERAGE EVERYTHING ELSE
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-9
UNCLASSIFIED
DoD Core
Technologies
Strategic Imperatives
• Accelerate delivery of technical
capabilities to win the current fight
• Prepare for an uncertain future
• Reduce the cost, acquisition time and risk
of our major defense acquisition program
• Develop world class science, technology,
engineering, and mathematics capabilities for the
DoD and the Nation
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-10
UNCLASSIFIED
Being Rigorous
• Military processes and tasks in most domains are reflected in
doctrine based workflows with associated tools
• Issue: Opinions in political/socio-cultural domains are easily
challenged by informed personnel and senior decision makers
• Solution: Socio-cultural analysis must
incorporate a environment that allows
users to defend, explain, and bound
conclusions and recommendations and
point to the rigor that allowed their
formulation.
• The environment must be:
– Warfighter responsive
– Focused on doctrine/process
– Driven by evidence
– Grounded in scientifically defensible data and theory
– Model-rich
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-11
UNCLASSIFIED
Modeling/Simulation Need
DoD Strategic Planning Guidance FY2008-2013 Study recommended:
Increased FY08-13 S&T investment for HSCB capabilities
New BA4 investment to support product maturation and transition
• Theory Development
• Modeling Uncertainty
• Data Collection Methods
• Federated Models
2009 Defense Science Board report
2008 National Research Council report
Research, Science communities have identified highest priorities:
• Automated assessment of attitudes,
networks, & strategic
communication
• Automated detection of sentiment,
bias, intention, deception
• Prediction of adversary reactions
• Gaming for virtual training and
mission rehearsal
• Federated databases to inform
dynamic network models
• Open architecture platforms for
interoperability
• Model Validation
• Tools and Infrastructure
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-12
UNCLASSIFIED
“But these models can’t predict…”
• The models of social science still are our best synthesis
but …
– They are incomplete
– The translation of “raw” socio-cultural data from the real world into model
parameters is unavoidably imprecise
– The translation of model results back to real-world implications is also
imprecise.
• Unlike definitive physical models, deeply uncertain models
cannot be used for making point predictions
We can use these models to explore and understand
Operational usage of these systems will entail a shift from seeking
optimal decisions to seeking robust decisions – developing options
that work across the broadest swath of plausible futures
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-13
UNCLASSIFIED
This is Hard
• Human behavior is inherently difficult to understand
• Empirical studies are difficult to conduct
• Requires multidisciplinary approaches across
multiple domains
• Enduring technical challenges of computational
modeling
– Data
– Hybrid modeling
– Transparency
– V&V
Figure Source: Behavioral Modeling and Simulation, page 56.
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-14
UNCLASSIFIED
Scientifically Valid Solutions for
End-Users
• COCOMs, HTTs, and other users have clearly stated needs for sociocultural awareness capabilities
• Need to run fast, do good systems engineering, and integrate
technologies into needed capabilities
• COCOMs need 80% solution now
• Push for sustainment but in some cases capabilities might just be a
one off and not go into a POR
• Important to focus on operational priorities, leveraging academia
and industry, but
• Also important to be rigorous, with a solid foundation in scientifically
valid basic and applied research (e.g. Minerva)
Innovation, speed, and agility
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-15
UNCLASSIFIED
Signs of Progress
Core sociocultural
capability
Data and tools
transference
Data and collection
methods
Models scope and
scale
Model integration
across levels
Gap at individual
soldier level
Governance of
sociocultural R&D
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-16
2006
Now
• Technical socio-cultural behavior
capability drawn from academia, labs,
industry
• No investment in resources to port or
extend relevant data, knowledge and
tools
• No data and collection methods to
support understanding, models, tool
development
• Models not broad enough to cover full
range of military operations, nor detailed
enough to forecast behaviors at scale
• Limited capacity to support integrated
modeling of strategic/operational/tactical
planning and operations
• No general use S&T to achieve the
‘language agile cultural chameleon’
soldier
• Sociocultural behavior R&D highly
distributed with limited coordination and
few DoD-wide solutions
• OSD, Army TRAC, AF, Special Op,
AFRICOM, EUCOM and others
have programs
• Increased DoD investments in data
collection, storage, and
transference
• Data collection tools and methods
emerging along with models and
tools
• Strong progress being made in
hybrid modeling and integration of
model output
• Requirement for integrated
modeling not often articulated, but
progress on numerous fronts
• Progress being made, but general
use S&T solution for individual
soldier remains long term
• Increasingly coordinated
governance through major
programs (HSCB, Minerva, SMA)
UNCLASSIFIED
The OSD Human Social Culture
Behavior Modeling Program
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-17
UNCLASSIFIED
Program Overview
• Lead DoD innovation in development, application,
and transition of social cultural methods, models,
and tools to meet operational needs
• Integrated portfolio of R&D
–
–
–
–
–
Understanding sociocultural dynamics of human behavior
Building computational behavior models
Improving data collection and management
Defining HSCB competencies and training methods
Developing tools for analysis and visualization
• Themes
– Tackle hard problems with great research in theory building and
modeling
– Ensure rigor through assessment and concrete metrics
– Transition to POR and warfighters in need
– Provide technology leadership across department
– Promote coordination and collaboration
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-18
UNCLASSIFIED
A Sample of the Hard Problems
Being Addressed
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
What factors influence religious extremism and
support for secular politics, gender equality, and
national identity?
How are decisions made in illicit cross-border
supply chains?
What narratives drive extremist behavior, and
how can we better detect and track their use?
How to leverage data mining to better predict
insurgent activities?
How to find and analyze mission-relevant
sentiment in multiple languages?
Can online gaming be used to study behavioral
models?
How can analytic systems visualize sociocultural
factors and the attendant uncertainty?
How do information and arguments propagate?
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-19
UNCLASSIFIED
OSD HSCB Program Objectives
Advanced
Technology
Development
Applied
Research
Modeling
Visualization
Training
Data
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-20
Component
Development,
Prototypes
Develop and validate theoretical
constructions, generate knowledge
products, and develop generalizeable,
quantitative models of socio-cultural
factors
Develop and demonstrate
tools and software to
integrate models and
information into existing
systems
Mature and deliver sociocultural modeling
capabilities within existing
DoD systems
Develop common categorization of
meta-information, and methods for
depicting cultural information to support
manual or automated analysis
Deliver visualization toolsets
and integrate a common
architecture visualization
tool to enhance situational
awareness and support
decision making
Mature and deliver software
that will visually and
digitally represent cultural
factors within existing
systems
Identify cross-cultural competencies
across mission areas and personnel
needs, and methods for flexible training
of socio-cultural knowledge, skills, and
abilities at tactical and operational
levels
Integrate and demonstrate
training of cross-cultural
competencies into existing
training systems
Prototype cultural training
tools and systems.
Improve strategies and methods for
valid collection of socio-cultural data,
especially in denied or difficult to
penetrate areas.
Generate functional
architectures for managing
and disseminating data,
information and analysis
products.
Demonstrate and prototype
first generation system that
operations analysts can use
to rapidly map new data and
optimize decision support
models to that data
UNCLASSIFIED
HSCB Portfolio
OSD HSCB
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR
Analytics and Modeling
Cultural Behavioral Model
Docking
(6.2)
Rhetoric-Based Modeling
of Insurgent Groups
(6.2 )
Identifying and Countering
Terrorist Narratives
(6.2)
Modeling Outcomes of
Coordinated USG and NGO
Efforts (6.2)
Tactical Irregular Warfare
(IW) Analytic Capabilities
(6.3)
Social Network Analysis
Reach back Capability
(6.3)
Modeling Strategic Contexts
(6.2)
Social and Cultural Model
Embedding Technologies
(6.2)
Architecture to Support SocioCultural Modeling
(6.2)
Breadth-Depth Triangulation
for V&V
(6.3)
US Agency for International
Development
(6.3)
US European Command
(6.3)
Simulation of Afghanistan
Opium Economic Systems
(6.2)
Cultural Influences on
Intertemporal Reasoning
(6.2)
Ethnic Conflict, Repression,
Insurgency and Social Strife
Model (ERIS) (6.3)
Model Evaluation, Selection,
and Application (MESA)
(6.3)
US Africa Command
(6.3)
US Pacific Command
(6.3)
Extremist Ideological
Influences on Terrorist
Decision Making (6.2)
Understanding RSM: Relief
Social Media
(6.2)
Turning Text into Behavioral
Processes and Public
Support (6.3)
Automatic Bias Detection and
Ranking
(6.3)
Automated Discovery of
Insurgent Behavior
(6.3)
Modeling Information
Propagation for more Effective
Influence Operations (6.3)
US Special Operations
Command
(6.3)
HSCB Modeling Decision
Support Framework (PRISM)
(6.4)
Automated Network
Construction
(OSD SBIR)
Dynamic MetaNetwork Measures
(OSD SBIR)
Neuromorphic Models of Human
Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB)
(OSD SBIR)
Analytical Tools for
Local Economic Analysis
(OSD SBIR)
Algorithmic Behavior Forecasting
(OSD SBIR)
A Cultural Architecture Generator
for Immersion Training in Virtual
Environments (OSD SBIR)
Data Generation
Visualization
Training & Education
Competitive Adaptation in
Terror Networks
(6.2)
Cross-National Analysis of
Islamic Fundamentalism
(6.2)
Enhanced HSCB Visualization
and Operational Decision
Support (6.3)
HSCB Training, Strategic
Direction and Requirement
Development (6.2)
Development and Assessment
Methods for Cultural
Capabilities (6.2)
Mining Afghan Lessons From
The Soviet Era
(6.2)
Unifying Social Frameworks
(6.2)
HSCB Modeling Visualization
Framework
(6.4)
Identifying Dynamic Environments
for Cultural Competencies
(InDECCs) (6.2)
Commonsense Socio-Cultural
Models for Training
(6.3)
Hybrid Knowledge Framework
for Complex Operations
(6.3)
HSCB Mobile Support to
HA/DR Operations
(6.3)
Visualization Methods and Tools
for HSCB Models
(OSD SBIR)
Enhancing Warfighter CrossCultural Awareness
(6.3)
Task-Based Communications
Training System
(6.3)
Cultural Awareness for
Military Operations
(OSD SBIR)
Game-based Simulation for
Human, Social, Culture
Behavioral Training (OSD SBIR)
In Situ Collection of Human
Social Cultural Behavioral Data
(OSD SBIR)
-
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-21
UNCLASSIFIED
Using Serious Games for SocioCultural Scenario Training
(OSD SBIR)
HSCB Related SBIR Topic Areas
New Starts
• OSD10-HS1: Decision Superiority through Enhanced
Cultural Intelligence Forecasting
• OSD10-HS2: In Situ Collection of Human Social Cultural
Behavioral Data
• OSD10-HS3: Neuromorphic Models of Human
Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB)
• OSD10-HS4: Dynamic Meta-Network Measures
• OSD10-HS5: Visualization Methods and Tools for Human,
Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Models
• OSD10-HS6: Automated Network Construction
• OSD10-HS7: Analytical Tools for Local Economic Analysis
• OSD10-HS8: An Adaptive Cultural Trainer for Development
of Cultural Aptitude in Warfighters
• OSD10-HS9: Developing and Modeling Social Networks
inside Technology Poor Societies
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-22
UNCLASSIFIED
Program Milestones
• Established wide-ranging portfolio of projects spanning 6.2
to 6.4 RDT&E levels with awardees from industry,
academia, and government
• Developed partnerships with Programs of Record
• Engaged with Combatant Commands (COCOMs) and other
operational users
• Organized three
national conferences
with diverse research
and operational
communities
• Provided operational
support and tools
transition for nearly all
COCOMs
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-23
UNCLASSIFIED
Disciplines of HSCB Principal
Investigators
• 56% of Principal
Investigators have Social
and Behavioral Science
degree(s)
• 30% have computer
science or
modeling/simulation
background
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-24
UNCLASSIFIED
How do we gauge success?
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-25
UNCLASSIFIED
The Impact of Good Modeling
• Enhance situation awareness (SA)
– Perceive (monitor, model, visualize) more socio-cultural factors
– More accurately comprehend the meaning of a situation (because sociocultural factors are accounted for)
– Project a broader range of futures, providing more realistic account of
HSCB problems and scenarios
• Enhance option awareness (OA)
– Perceive more completely and with greater accuracy how available options
for action perform across the landscape of plausible futures
– For each of the available options, better anticipate and distinguish which
socio-cultural factors will lead to desired outcomes and which to undesired
outcomes
– Increase ability to use these factors to create options, branches, and
sequels that improve performance across the landscape of plausible futures
Models will explore SA/OA uncertainty, visualization will
reveal distinctions, data will feed a wide range of models, and
training will achieve agility
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-26
UNCLASSIFIED
HSCB Program Metrics and
Assessment Processes
Processes in place to independently verify and validate
ongoing efforts based on project specific criteria
• Technical and Programmatic Reviews by PM at Project
and Portfolio Levels
• Technical Performance Evaluation Events
• Transition Demonstration Events
• Wargames and Experimentation Events
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-27
UNCLASSIFIED
HSCB Technologies are in Use
• While the domain has limited clear requirements, numerous
operational entities have begun use of relevant
technologies
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
USSOCOM – MISO and other
USCENTCOM – AFPAK COE and Human Terrain Analysis Team
AFRICOM – Serengeti
USSTRATCOM JIOWC
US Army TRADOC
OSD CAPE
ISAF
USPACOM
USJFCOM
USEUCOM
JIEDDO
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-28
UNCLASSIFIED
Transition Success Stories
• Transition of HSCB data ingestion and modeling
capabilities to US Special Operations Command
• Transitioning HSCB behavioral modeling capabilities
to United States Army Training and Doctrine
Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center (TRAC) to
support their cultural geography model and wargame
• Transitioned geospatial and social network analysis
HSCB capabilities to US Special Operations
Command, Pacific
• Prototyped use of automated techniques to rapidly
extract persons, events, and sentiments in support of
USAFRICOM
• Supporting ISAF Joint Command Headquarters in
Kabul, Afghanistan.
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-29
UNCLASSIFIED
Engagement and Leadership
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-30
UNCLASSIFIED
LONG TERM
Socio-Cultural Behavior Domains and
Relationships
International
(TTCP, NATO, Smart
Power…)
Interagency
DARPA
USMC
DoD
RDT&E
(State, DHS,
Intel)
HSCB
ARI
Minerva
ONR
TRADOC
AFRL
NEAR TERM
USDI
Operation
(COCOMs, Services)
COLLABORATE
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-31
ENGAGE
UNCLASSIFIED
COORDINATE
INFORM
User Engagement and Applied
Science Leadership
• Working directly with COCOMs and other users
• Cobra Gold Exercise Participation
• Held first HSCB capabilities open
house
• NSTC Subcommittee on Human
Factors for Homeland and
National Security
• IW M&S SCG
• Congressionally Mandated User Group
• Active at national conferences
• HSCB national conferences
– Focus2010 had over 600 participants from USG, academia, and
industry
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-32
UNCLASSIFIED
Promoting Coordination and
Collaboration
• OSD-Policy
– Coordinating with Minerva Program
• Congressional Staff
– Engaged with congressional staff to define requirements of HASC/SASC
requests
• ASD R&E Rapid Fielding Office
– Coordinating with strategic communication and SMA activities in ASD R&E RFO
• DTRA
– Assisted DTRA in development of HSCB relevant BAA
• Interagency (State, USAID, USG-C)
– Conducting outreach to senior executives at DOS to determine requirements and
facilitate interagency cooperation
• International
– Engaging with TTCP and NATO on metrics and tools to support comprehensive
approach to operations
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-33
UNCLASSIFIED
Where we are Going
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-34
UNCLASSIFIED
ONR BAA
• The Office of Naval Research just released a Broad Agency
Announcement (BAA) requesting proposals for research
sponsored through the HSCB Modeling Program.
• Topics:
– Data collection and management
– Multi-scale and hybrid modeling of
regional and subregional stability
– Training methodologies
– Analysis and modeling of non-kinetic
COA
• Expected outputs for all projects:
–
–
–
–
published research findings and data
Methodologies and Designs
training materials
analytic frameworks, Ontologies, and/or taxonomies
HSCB Domains
• Expected outputs of advanced technology projects (in
addition to above)
– prototype software
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-35
UNCLASSIFIED
Thank you, and a Challenge
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-36
UNCLASSIFIED
Backups
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-37
UNCLASSIFIED
Social Network Analysis Reachback
Capability (SNARC) for ISAF
OBJECTIVE: Develop/integrate tools, models, processes, and skills
necessary to implement and operate a social network reachback
capability
HYPOTHESIS: Additional tools, models, processes, skills will assist
ISAF in the Request for Information (RFI) process
MILITARY RELEVANCE/OPERATIONAL IMPACT:
MITRE has been providing direct support to the ISAF since November
2009. Based on this work and interaction, the need for SNARC was
identified in June 2010 to address the Network Effects Cell’s need to
collect information on social networks for the District Development
Program (DDP). The HSCB Modeling program performers have been
tasked to support this sponsor, and explore technology transition
TECHNICAL APPROACH:
MITRE: Transition focused technical leadership for integration of
HSCB research technologies in support of ISAF
LANL: Assess opium trade-based corruption, and the population’s
perception and support for opium trafficking
Milcord: Bayesian influence model represents survey questions as
nodes, computes relations among answers
NU: Study to determine the robustness of one centrality measure as
the network is randomized (errors introduced)
UC Davis: Event analysis (IEDs) focused on key drivers (coalition
activity) and relationship to socio-economic signatures
PERFORMERS: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Milcord
Northeastern University, University of California-Davis
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-38
SCHEDULE: (JUN 2010 – OCT 2011)
JUN 2010:
OCT 2010:
NOV 2010:
Starting
JAN 2011:
OCT 2011:
Project kickoff with 4 HSCB performers
Proof of concept demonstrated to ISAF including
response to Network Effect Cell (the NEC) RFIs
Periodic meetings with ISAF to respond to RFIs
As directed, engage with more HSCB performers
Deliver Techniques, Tactics, and Procedures
(TTPs) for selected HSCB tools, models
Train the NEC analysts on selected HSCB capabilities
Product: Applying computational models to answering
ISAF information requests on 2-week cycles
UNCLASSIFIED
Phase III Plans
• Continue maturing Phase Two investments
• Emphasize new 6.4 investments
• Move technology developed at all levels of
investment into acquisition
• Demonstrate an end-to-end
application of HSCB modeling
to intelligence analysis,
operations planning, operations
analysis, and training
• Lead R&D coordination working closely with US
Department of Defense partners
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-39
UNCLASSIFIED
What is our view for the future?
NATIONAL & TACTICAL
SYSTEMS
defenselink.mil
AWARENESS & DIME
DECISION MAKING
BUILD CAPACITY
Socio-Cultural
Understanding
Measure
Effects
PMESII
Effects
SC Data
Collection
US & Partner
Objectives
HSCB
Modeling
&
Forecasting
COA
Analysis
http://rtfministries.org/yahoo_site_admin/assets/images/multi
.333152129.jpg
Analyze
& Fuse
PMESII
Effects
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-40
PMESII
Effects
http://happybrainstorm.com/wp-includes/images/Belief.jpg
UNCLASSIFIED
defenselink.mil
Where You Come In
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-41
UNCLASSIFIED
Highlighted Projects – Applied
Research
•
•
•
•
Modeling Strategic Contexts - Support analysis of international
conflicts by providing rich models of strategic context
Variations in Islamic Fundamentalism - Understand factors
influencing religious extremism and support for secular politics,
gender equality, and national identity
Simulation of Opium Supply Chain - Develop models of adaptive
decision-making in illicit cross-border supply chains
Socio-Cultural Modeling Architecture – Develop coherent,
flexible, extensible data-to-model service oriented architecture
for socio-cultural modeling and analysis
• Identifying and Countering Terrorist
Narratives - Develop models and
decision making tools that allow rapid
assessment of terrorist propaganda
and development of effective countermeasures
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-42
UNCLASSIFIED
Highlighted Projects – Advanced
Technology Development
• Modeling Information Propagation - Aid
influence operations by providing a model of
information propagation that supports
analysis of the effectiveness of arguments
and media.
• Automated Discovery and Prediction of Insurgent Behavior - Leverage
data mining to provide commanders with capability to predict insurgent
activities and behaviors
• Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations - Semantic
Answer Engine for the complex operations community to support
modeling and simulation, training, and tactical decision-aid applications
• Turning Text into Behavioral Processes and Public Support - Develop a
next-generation automated (1) political event and (2) sentiment coder
• Irregular Warfare Analytic Capabilities - Provide analytic methods,
models, and tools suites to support examination of impacts on
operational environment (specifically, population) by reachback analysis
teams and deployed analyst cells.
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-43
UNCLASSIFIED
Highlighted Projects – Component
Development and Prototypes
• Transition of Analytic Tools - Facilitate transition of fusion cell analytic
tools by creating a “Help” system the incorporates best practices
heuristics and visualizations.
• Skope Toolkit Enhancement - Enhance USSOCOM Skope’s Behavioral
Modeling Toolkit, to develop additional modular, web-enabled, flexible
tools focused on discovery and characterization of non-obvious
relationships among people, places, things.
• APERTURE - Design, develop and implement
an open source interactive visualization
framework and API.
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-44
UNCLASSIFIED
Program Phase II
(FY10/11)
Significant increased emphasis on developing reusable models (10%)
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-45
UNCLASSIFIED
Phase II Program Profile – Major
Research Challenges
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-46
UNCLASSIFIED
Phase I Program Profile Awardees
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-47
UNCLASSIFIED
Phase I Program Profile Requirements
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-48
UNCLASSIFIED
Phase I Program Profile –
Research Challenge Areas
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-49
UNCLASSIFIED
Phase II Program Profile –
Awardees
Projects conducted by Small Businesses increased by 10%, projects conducted by Big
Businesses decreased by 9%
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-50
UNCLASSIFIED
Selected Phase II Technical
Accomplishments
• Development of visualization tools and infrastructures that
display hybrid data sources
• Development of a theory to support hybrid, generalizeable
models which span the spectrum from tactical to
operational to strategic.
• Development of technologies capable of leveraging
extracted data (e.g. from surveys), processing the data, and
validating it.
• Demonstration of distributed training technologies to speed
the development of socio-cultural skills of coalitions in
current military operations.
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-51
UNCLASSIFIED
Context: DoD Representative
Communities
Data & Theory
Building
Model &
Software
Development
Socio-Cultural Modeling of Effective Influence (AFRL)
ARMED SERVICES
Cascading Effects Modeling (AFRL)
Collective Behavior and Socio-Cultural Modeling (AFRL)
Predicting Adversary Behavior (AFRL)
HSCB Basic and Applied Research (ARI)
Effects Measurement and Geospatial Services (USACE)
Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (USMC)
Program Manager Training Systems (USMC)
Affordable Human Behavior Modeling (ONR)
ONR HSCB Science (ONR)
Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (DDR&E)
Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (DDR&E)
Strategic Multilayer Analysis (DDR&E)
OSD
Minerva Research Initiative (OSD)
Social Science Research & Analysis (USDI)
Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (OSD)
Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (DARPA)
Applications of Social Computing (DARPA)
Strategic Communication Assessment & Analysis (DARPA)
Conflict Modeling, Planning & Outcomes Experimentation (DARPA)
OTHER DoD
Socio-Cultural Dynamics Initiative (DIA)
Behavioral/Social Sciences Research Program (DIA)
Social-Science Research for Anticipation & Reduction of WMD (DTRA)
ATHENA (TRISA)
Human Terrain System (TRADOC)
Social Dynamics Awareness (JIEDDO)
OTHER
Socio-Cultural Behavior R&D (COCOMs)
Social/Behavioral Dimensions of Security, Conflict, Cooperation (NSF)
Socio-Cultural Content in Language (IARPA)
Reynard (IARPA)
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-52
UNCLASSIFIED
Model Building
Resources &
V&V
Integration &
Systems
Development
Training &
Mission
Rehearsal
Operational Use
& Transition
AFRL: AIR FORCE
RESEARCH LAB; ARI:
ARMY RESEARCH
INSTITUTE;
COCOMS: US
COMBATANT
COMMANDS; DARPA:
DEFENSE
ADVANCED
RESEARCH
PROJECTS AGENCY;
DIA: DEFENSE
INTELLIGENCE
AGENCY; DTRA:
DEFENSE THREAT
REDUCTION
AGENCY; IARPA:
INTELLIGENCE
ADVANCE
RESEARCH
PROJECTS AGENCY;
JIEDDO: JOINT
IMPROVISED
EXPLOSIVE DEVICES
DEFEAT
ORGANIZATION;
NSF: NATIONAL
SCIENCE
FOUNDATION; ONR:
OFFICE OF NAVAL
RESEARCH;
TRADOC: TRAINING
AND DOCTRINE
COMMAND; TRISA:
TRADOC
INTELLIGENCE
SUPPORT ACTIVITY;
USACE: ARMY
CORPS OF
ENGINEERS; USDI:
UNDER SECRETARY
OF DEFENSE FOR
INTELLIGENCE
HSCB Portfolio Overview
Human, Social, Cultural
and Behavioral Sciences
Mastery of the social, cultural and
cognitive factors that optimize the
warfighter’s ability to influence human
behavior across the full spectrum of
military operations.
OSD ASD R&E
MANAGER
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow
[email protected]
TEAM
Dr. Ivy Estabrooke
Deputy PM/Technical
Execution Agent
ONR
RECENT TRANSITIONS
Technology Investment
Areas
Data Generation
T&E STO-2: Learning OPFOR
Intel STO-5: Exposing hidden
enemy networks, anticipating and
influencing behavior
NECC BP/shape 8.2-4: Operational
Data Collection
PROJECTS
Competitive Adaptation in Terror
Networks
(6.2)
Cross-National Analysis of
Islamic Fundamentalism
(6.2)
Mining Afghan Lessons From
The Soviet Era
(6.2)
Unifying Social Frameworks
(6.2)
Hybrid Knowledge Framework
for Complex Operations
(6.3)
HSCB Mobile Support to HA/DR
Operations
(6.3)
In Situ Collection of Human
Social Cultural Behavioral Data
(OSD SBIR)
Hybrid Knowledge Framework
for Complex Operations (E&D)
(OSD)
ISAF Support
Mining Afghan Lessons
from the Soviet Era
ISAF Support: COIN Training
Center
Mr. Dhiren Khona
Technical Execution
Agent
AGC
OSD HSCB
Shana Yakobi
Technical Execution
Agent
CTTSO
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-53
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR
UNCLASSIFIED
HSCB Portfolio Overview
Technology Investment
Areas
Human, Social, Cultural
and Behavioral Sciences
Analytics and Modeling
T&E STO-2: Learning OPFOR.
Mastery of the social, cultural and
cognitive factors that optimize the
warfighter’s ability to influence human
behavior across the full spectrum of
military operations.
Intel STO-5: Exposing hidden enemy
networks, anticipating and influencing
behavior
OSD ASD R&E
MANAGER
RECENT TRANSITIONS
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow
[email protected]
(OSD) (D&I)
TEAM
NECC BA/ISR 2.1-14: Expose Enemy
Networks, and Anticipate or Influence
Their Behavior
NECC BP/Shape 8.2-1: Civil
Information Management for Civil
Military Operations
Rhetoric-Based Modeling
of Insurgent Groups
JFCOM
Modeling Strategic Contexts
(OSD) (D&I)
NECC BP/Shape 8.2-2: Cultural and
Language Proficiency Tools
NECC BP/Shape 8.2-3: Influence and
Effects Measurement Tools
Dr. Ivy Estabrooke
Deputy PM/Technical
Execution Agent
ONR
EUCOM Social Science
Research and Analysis (SSRA)
.
Simulation of Afghanistan
Opium Economic Systems
(D&I) (OSD)
NIWO: Advanced Predictive Tools for
Battlefield Effects
Mr. Dhiren Khona
Technical Execution
Agent
AGC
ISAF Support
NIWO: Exposing Hidden Enemy
Networks, Anticipating and Influencing
Behaviors
Shana Yakobi
Technical Execution
Agent
CTTSO
Modeling Outcomes of
Coordinated USG and NGO
Efforts (D&I) (OSD)
TRAC Irregular Warfare
Wargame
NIWO: Operationally Adaptive
OPFORIntel STO-5: Exposing hidden
enemy networks, anticipating and
influencing behavior
-
.
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-54
UNCLASSIFIED
PROJECTS
Cultural Behavioral Model
Docking
(6.2)
Rhetoric-Based Modeling
of Insurgent Groups
(6.2 )
Modeling Strategic Contexts
(6.2)
Social and Cultural Model
Embedding Technologies
(6.2)
Simulation of Afghanistan
Opium Economic Systems
(6.2)
Cultural Influences on
Intertemporal Reasoning
(6.2)
Extremist Ideological Influences
on Terrorist Decision Making
(6.2)
Understanding RSM: Relief
Social Media
(6.2)
Identifying and Countering
Terrorist Narratives
(6.2)
Modeling Outcomes of
Coordinated USG and NGO
Efforts (6.2)
Architecture to Support SocioCultural Modeling
(6.2)
Breadth-Depth Triangulation for
V&V
(6.3)
Ethnic Conflict, Repression,
Insurgency and Social Strife
Model (ERIS) (6.3)
Model Evaluation, Selection,
and Application (MESA)
(6.3)
Turning Text into Behavioral
Processes and Public Support
(6.3)
Automatic Bias Detection and
Ranking
(6.3)
OSD HSCB
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR
HSCB Portfolio Overview
Human, Social, Cultural
and Behavioral Sciences
Analytics and Modeling
T&E STO-2: Learning OPFOR
Mastery of the social, cultural and
cognitive factors that optimize the
warfighter’s ability to influence human
behavior across the full spectrum of
military operations.
OSD ASD R&E
MANAGER
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow
[email protected]
NECC BP/Shape 8.203: Influence and
Effects Measurement Tools
RECENT TRANSITIONS
Automated Discovery of Insurgent
Behavior (OSD) (D&I)
ISAF Support
TEAM
Shana Yakobi
Technical Execution
Agent
CTTSO
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-55
USA ASTMP: Network Science
Research will provide an understanding
of networks much more broadly and
deeply, including human social
networks
USA ASTMP: Human Dimension – The
Army leverages enhanced means to
identify, access, retain, and develop
Soldiers with unsurpassed cognitive,
physical, and social (moral and cultural)
capabilities.
USA ASTMP: Soldiers are enabled by
technology, cognitive, medical, and
social sciences to achieve excellence in
small unit competence and to dominate
increasingly complex operational
environments.
Dr. Ivy Estabrooke
Deputy PM/Technical
Execution Agent
ONR
Mr. Dhiren Khona
Technical Execution
Agent
AGC
PROJECTS
Technology Investment
Areas
.
USA ASTMP: Soldiers are able to
leverage technologies and processes
that optimize and restore cognitive and
physical performance.
Automated Discovery of
Insurgent Behavior
(6.3)
Modeling Information Propagation
for more Effective Influence
Operations (6.3)
Tactical Irregular Warfare (IW)
Analytic Capabilities
(6.3)
Social Network Analysis Reach
back Capability
(6.3)
US Agency for International
Development
(6.3)
US European Command
(6.3)
US Africa Command
(6.3)
US Pacific Command
(6.3)
US Special Operations
Command
(6.3)
HSCB Modeling Decision
Support Framework (PRISM)
(6.4)
Automated Network
Construction
(OSD SBIR)
Dynamic MetaNetwork Measures
(OSD SBIR)
Neuromorphic Models of Human
Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB)
(OSD SBIR)
Analytical Tools for
Local Economic Analysis
(OSD SBIR)
Algorithmic Behavior Forecasting
(OSD SBIR)
A Cultural Architecture Generator
for Immersion Training in Virtual
Environments (OSD SBIR)
OSD HSCB
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR
UNCLASSIFIED
HSCB Portfolio Overview
Technology Investment
Areas
Human, Social, Cultural
and Behavioral Sciences
Visualization
Mastery of the social, cultural and
cognitive factors that optimize the
warfighter’s ability to influence human
behavior across the full spectrum of
military operations.
OSD ASD R&E
MANAGER
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow
[email protected]
TEAM
Dr. Ivy Estabrooke
Deputy PM/Technical
Execution Agent
ONR
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-56
Enhanced HSCB Visualization
and Operational Decision
Support (6.3)
HSCB Modeling Visualization
Framework
(6.4)
Visualization Methods and Tools
for HSCB Models
(OSD SBIR)
RECENT TRANSITIONS
Enhanced HSCB Visualization
and Operational Decision
Support (D&I) (OSD)
Collaborative Security JCTD
(USAID); ISAF
.
Mr. Dhiren Khona
Technical Execution
Agent
AGC
Shana Yakobi
Technical Execution
Agent
CTTSO
PROJECTS
,
OSD HSCB
.
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR
UNCLASSIFIED
HSCB Portfolio Overview
Technology Investment
Areas
Human, Social, Cultural
and Behavioral Sciences
OSD ASD R&E
MANAGER
RECENT TRANSITIONS
,
Identifying Dynamic Environments
for Cultural Competencies
(InDECCs) (6.2)
Commonsense Socio-Cultural
Models for Training
(6.3)
T&E STO-7: Automated Performance
Assessment
Enhancing Warfighter CrossCultural Awareness
(6.3)
Task-Based Communications
Training System
(6.3)
NIWO: Enhanced Cultural and Human
Terrain Capabilities
Cultural Awareness for
Military Operations
(OSD SBIR)
Game-based Simulation for
Human, Social, Culture
Behavioral Training (OSD SBIR)
ATO-D: Learning With Adaptive
Simulation and Training
.
.
USA ASTMP: Future training and
leader development must be
completely adaptable and scalable to
cover the full spectrum of operational
challenges facing the Soldier
OSD HSCB
Shana Yakobi
Technical Execution
Agent
CTTSO
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-57
Using Serious Games for SocioCultural Scenario Training
(OSD SBIR)
USA ASTMP: Soldiers and leaders
require the ability to excel in a
challenging and increasingly complex
future operating environment
TEAM
Mr. Dhiren Khona
Technical Execution
Agent
AGC
Development and Assessment
Methods for Cultural
Capabilities (6.2)
T&E STO-6: High Fidelity
Virtual Environment.
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow
[email protected]
Dr. Ivy Estabrooke
Deputy PM/Technical
Execution Agent
ONR
HSCB Training, Strategic
Direction and Requirement
Development (6.2)
Socio-Cultural
Training & Education
Mastery of the social, cultural and
cognitive factors that optimize the
warfighter’s ability to influence human
behavior across the full spectrum of
military operations.
PROJECTS
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR
UNCLASSIFIED
Project Transitions
Projects
Transition Targets
Transition Status
Plug and Play Cultural Avatars for Training
& Mission Rehearsal – VCOM3D
US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC)/J.F.
Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School
(JFKSWCS)
Completed
Tyton/Canvas – SPADAC
USSOCOM Skope Cell, International Security
Assistance Force, DIA
Partially Complete
Simulation of Afghanistan Opium Economic
Systems – Los Alamos National Lab
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
Partially Complete
Mining Afghan Lessons from Soviet Era
(MALSE) – Stanford (NPS)
International Security Assistance Force – COIN CT
Training Center
Partially Complete
Social Network Analysis Work –
Northeastern University
Collaborative Security JCTD (USAID); ISAF
Partially Complete
TRADOC Analysis Center – TRAC
TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame
Partially Complete
Automated Discovery and Explanation Of
Adversarial Behavior – UC Davis
International Security Assistance Force, TRAC Irregular
Warfare Tactical Wargame; AFRICOM; EUCOM
Partially Complete
Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex
Operations – Milcord
Collaborative Security JCTD (USAID); ISAF; Milcord
Partially Complete
Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency, and
Social Strife (ERIS) – NSI
USSOCOM/PM Military Information Support Operations
(MISO); Joint Military Information Support Command
(JMISC); TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame
Partially Complete
SAVANT-HSCB/MIMEO – Charles River
Analytics
USSOCOM/PM Military Information Support Operations
(MISO); Joint Military Information Support Command
(JMISC); TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame
Partially Complete
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-58
UNCLASSIFIED
Project Transitions
Projects
Transition Targets
Transition Status
Rhetoric-Based Modeling of Insurgent
Groups – University of Washington APL
JFCOM
In Progress
Identifying and Countering Terrorist
Narratives – Arizona State University
MCIOC POR; EUCOM
In Progress
Enhanced HSCB Visualization and
Operational Decision Support – SAE
Collaborative Security JCTD (USAID); ISAF
In Progress
Modeling Outcomes of Coordinated USG
and NGO Efforts – eCrossCulture
TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame
In Progress
Commonsense Socio-Cultural Models for
Culture Training in Serious Games – Alelo
PMTRASYS, Operational Language and
Culture Training System (OLACTS)
In Progress
Modeling Strategic Outcomes – University
of Chicago
EUCOM Social Science Research and
Analysis (SSRA)
Planning
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-59
UNCLASSIFIED
Program Transitions
Goal
Transition Target
Transition Status
USSOCOM SKOPE Developed signature analysis and
visualization toolkit
USSOCOM SKOPE
Complete
Instantiation of “Senturion” influence models for
PACOM/SOCPAC planning
USPACOM HQ
Complete
Enhanced Web Monitoring System to allow manual annotation
of sentiment and graphical depiction based on a user-defined
template
SOCPAC
Complete
Develop technologies necessary to enhance operation training
US Army Special Operations
Command
Complete
Develop a prototype modeling capability provides insight into
mass migration flow, and provides potential shaping for
courses of action related to those flows
AFRICOM
In Progress
Develop models and procedures that yield geospatial
trafficking insight that links activities to networks, and to time
and physical space.
EUCOM
In Progress
Assist in conducting the research and development necessary
to implement a fully representative shura for a district and
identify the religious leadership in each provincial & district
government & their assessed influence
ISAF
In Progress
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-60
UNCLASSIFIED
Program Transitions
Goal
Transition Target
Transition Status
Support influence operations by developing innovative
extensions to existing tools
USSOCOM PSYOP/MISO
In Progress
Monitor the spread of violent extremism across specified
AOR
USSOCOM Combating Violent
Extremism
In Progress
Leverage innovations in data collection, mobile devices,
and modeling to support participation in Joint Combined
Exercise and Training in the PACOM AOR
USPACOM MEC
In Progress
Integrate social cultural models into infrastructure model
and assist in development of technologies to support
strategic communication
Intelligence Community
In Progress
Development of technologies to support audience
analysis and engagement
Joint Forces Command
In Progress
Engaging with USCENTCOM science advisor on
USCENTCOM predictive analysis requirements
CENTCOM
Planning
Assist in solving the “data problem”. Develop the
capabilities necessary to process social cultural data
robustly and accurately.
Human Terrain Systems
Planning
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-61
UNCLASSIFIED

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