NCIE Turkey -

A National Critical Intelligence Estimate
Presented by Section 31
For Approval by Professor R. Nichols
Section 31
Jay Kippen, Team Leader
Dan Routier, Executive Officer
Kristell Havens
Kristina Anderson
Darcy Pitkin
Kyle Leisner
Brendan Kinchla
Naveen Kumar
Jeff Sperry
Ekow Ocran
Enzi Jauregui
Executive Summary
State Snapshot
Key Judgments
Possible outcomes
Useful Definitions
• Political Islam
• The inclusion of Islam into the secular political arena
• Conservative Democracy
• In Turkey conservative democracy is liberalism by
promoting social conservativeness
• Theocracy
• A government ruled by religious virtues
• Secular
• Not bound by any religion
• Secularism
• A noted separation between government and religion,
common in Turkish politics.
Executive Summary Critical Intentions
•Based on analysis of available data points, it is
•Intent of the AKP party with assistance from the
Muslim Brotherhood is to quietly institute various nonsecular religious political reforms;
• To consolidate and maintain control of the
•via use of subversive political tactics;
•clear intentions of creating an extremist religious
Muslim nation
• that is contrary to western principles
Executive Summary Capabilities
AKP capabilities to complete their intentions
• Infiltration of key military and government branches
• Control of Military
• Military Chief of Staff is a member of AKP and
considered principal figure for carrying out coup
• Control of Legislature
• Controls the military through legislation, i.e. military
reforms, budget etc...
• Control Judicial branch
• Placement of AKP friendly staff
• Courts are not open to public scrutiny- ripe with
• Turkey is at a crossroads in their secular ideology and political
identity, turning either direction will send the country and
people towards an uncertain future
Right the country will fall into a Muslim extremist state thereby
isolating itself from western influence, but at a price
Left involves the military stepping in to protect the secular
ideology with prospects of a civl war or military control for an
extended period
Straight allows the Muslim Brotherhood to continue solidifying
their march towards an extremist state and ruling out any further
chances for normalcy
• Understanding the consequences of this international crisis is
of major importance, not only in terms of strategic interests for
United States but the whole world
• This report will focus on the implications if Turkey becomes a
Muslim radicalized nation-state similar to Iran
Key areas for analysis
• Identification of strategic important areas for the
United States, and their relevance
• Analysis of hypothetical predictions and their
• Identification of potential key indicators
• Political
• Economic
• Intelligence
• Military
• Development and analysis of alternate outcomes
based on analysis of critical data points and
assumed predictions
Executive Summary U.S. Interests
Areas of strategic importance for the United States in
relation to Turkey's geopolitical situation
• Energy Security
• Turkey's strategic location provides a means for regional distribution of oil
/gas originating in the Middle East and Caspian basin through a series of
pipelines traversing Turkish territory
• Regional stabilization efforts
• With Turkey's standing in the Muslim world the US is able to use Turkey as
an intermediary in relations with other regional Muslim nations concerning
Israel, Syria, Jordan, and to an extent Iran
Provides a unique example to combat fundamentalist through the use of
Democracy and secular activities
Executive Summary U.S. Interests
Areas of strategic importance for the United States in
relation to Turkey's geopolitical situation
• Military Cooperation
• NATO- Turkish involvement provides the west a unique opportunity to
conduct regional stabilization efforts in relation to former Soviet bloc
Muslim nations
Missile defense systems- Turkey's strategic location provides an ideal
location for defending against missile launches from Iran
War on Terror- with Turkey's assistance several key regional states
supported efforts to combat terrorism
Executive Summary
• Political
Turkey Loses Bid to join EU
Turkey Loses NATO Membership
Turkey Aligned Politically with Iran
(Cyprus occupation)
• Economic
Turkey’s Economy will Decline/Collapse
• Military
Military Coup Probable
Imzir & Incirlik Air Bases and Airspace Permissions Revoked
(Cyprus occupation)
• Intelligence/Cyber Security
Turkey will increase intel relationship with Iran while decreasing
relationship with US/Israel
Loss of SIGINT and HUMINT Resources and Placement
Executive Summary
Key Indicators
• Political
• Government instituting unpopular Islamic reforms contrary
to Turkey's secular ideology
Reinstated Hatip religious schools
Started sponsoring official Quran courses
Started teaching Sunni Islam in schools
Dramatically Increased the number of mosques
The secular population is now moving away from viewing the
government in a favorable way
• Freedom of press is constrained
The government established controls to limit news media
No longer can Turkish people express opposition to
• Key government players are from a pro-Islamic
background with strong ties to the Muslim Brotherhood
• Increased the Directorate of Religious affairs budget from
553T to over 2.7Q in first 4 years of rule
Executive Summary Key Indicators
• Economic
• Decline in economic growth, measured from pre- Erdoğan
1990 to present 2013
• Private sector has increased borrowing, in March of 2013
Turkeys private sector foreign debt was 202 million, up
from 138.5 the previous month, total debt currently 38.5
• Suspected increase of the Hawalas system cannot be
predicted due to the nature of the system, almost no
records are kept, it is noted that an increase in Hawala
usage occurs during time of conflict and political discord
• Istanbul stock market decreased by 10% and Interest
rates are up 50%
Executive Summary Key Indicators
• Government influence in the private sector
President Erdoğan accusing Kuwait Oil Company (KOC)
of terrorism
Turkey has a history of prosecuting companies for
suspected anti-government activities
Possible government sanctions or loss of business
KOC represents 6% of total economic output
Have lost 17% of business since the riots
Executive Summary Key Indicators
• Military
• Infiltration of pro-Islamic military officers into the current
• Current ruling party instituted military reforms designed to
limit their power in the political arena in order to curb coup
• Through political action, redefined the military's
responsibilities to strictly protect the country from outside
• Persecution of key military officers who would be in the
position to direct a coup
• Demonstrations over US military bases, seeking expulsion
from Turkey
• Continued decrease in military budget
Executive Summary Key Indicators
• Intelligence
• Recently developed intelligence sharing capabilities with
Iran in order to combat Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)
• Provided US equipment to Iran
• Turkeys intelligence relationship with the US has cooled
since 2004
Mainly due to perceived US support for the Kurdish PKK
Including a Brief History
State Snapshot
• Geographical strategic
location for controlling
Turkish straits
• Slightly larger than the state
of Texas
• 7200 km of coastline
• Many natural resources
• Coal
• Iron
• Copper
• Mercury
• Ethnic groups
• Turkish 70-75%
• Kurdish 18%
• Other 7-12%
• Economic resources
Agricultural Outputs
• Language-Turkish
• Religions
Mostly Sunni
• Population 80 Million
• 81 Provinces
State Snapshot
Turkey Estimated Population- 80 million
Percent of total population Muslim- 99.0 (~79 million)
Capital: Ankara
Government Type: Republic parliamentary democracy
with a free market economy
• Suffrage: 18 years of age
• Last elections were held during June, 2011
• Recently, presidential elections were amended to reflect a
direct election process
• Next elections will be held June 2015
• Political Parties (at least 61)
• Administrative Divisions: 81 Provinces
• Independence: 29 October 1923
• Marked by a national holiday every October 29
• Constitution Ratified on 7 November 1982
Illustration of Turkey’s Strategic
Importance to Middle Eastern Affairs
Google Earth (Cartographer). (2013). Middle east map [Topographic map]. Retrieved from
Key judgments and possible outcomes
Prediction One
Key judgment and possible outcome
• Turkey gains Economic Union (EU) membership and
becomes radicalized
• Analyzing all data points
• Has NO effect on western relations
Prediction Two
Key judgment and possible outcome
• Turkey fails to gain EU status
• Erdogan's 2002 promise to attain EU
memberships is a key component to AKP's
popularity, which if their bid fails would almost
certainly spell defeat for his non-secular state and
the AKP party
Prediction Three
Key judgment and possible outcome
• Continued pro-islamic government intervention
through unpopular reforms resulting in a military
coup similar to the 1960 one
• Junior grade officers stage the coup without
approval or knowledge from higher military
• Unique as it applies to today's situation
• AKP has infiltrated key military command structures
• Has also infiltrated elements of junior grade officers
• Consolidated gains from Political, Legislative, and
Judicial branches
Presented by, Kristell Havens and Kristina Anderson
Key Political Indicators
What If Scenario
Supporting History
Political Organization
Political Summary
•Government type: republic parliamentary democracy
with a free market economy
•Turkey’s geographical location allows them to act as
the bridge between Europe and the Middle East
•This position has helped Prime Minister Erdoğan build
up Turkey’s political influence and economy over the
last decade
Political Summary
•The political and societal upheavals in recent times
within this region have left Turkey largely unscathed
• Electoral democracy- allows for flexibility and gives the
people of Turkey a voice in their government.
•Recent protests and military actions within the state
have opened up international discourse on the realities
of the political situation in Turkey
cronyism, lack of transparency and accountability
•Creeping authoritarian actions
•Fundamentalist restrictions on democracy
Political Summary
•The Syrian refugee influx and border violence is
spilling over into Turkish soil, and they are largely illequipped to handle the crippling effects
•Turkey still acts as an occupying force in Northern
Cyprus, with no plans to yield on their position
•They are now fighting for claims to newly discovered
oil reserves on the southern half of the island
Key Indicators of Political Discourse
•Prime Minister Erdoğan is instituting reforms that are
considered unpopular with secular populations
•Secular population is moving away from viewing the government
in a favorable light
•Pro-Islamic reforms have resulted in Erdoğan losing his majority
•Freedom of the press is constrained
•Influence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) inside of
Turkey has grown
•The Justice and Development Party (AKP) is viewed with
suspicion by some segments of the electorate, since they
have strong Islamic ties, and their policy output tends to
lean toward Islamic based ideals.
Key Indicators of Political Discourse
• Erdoğan is pushing for international legislation that
would make it illegal to affront the sensitivities of
• Twitter, Facebook, or any other social media device
has been labeled a societal risk
• The government is concerned that it will compromise
Islamic values- but more than that it will encourage protest
as it did in the Arab Spring
• "There is a problem called Twitter right now and you can
find every kind of lie there, The thing that is called social
media is the biggest trouble for society right now."Erdoğan
• Erdoğan is attempting to take away freedoms that
democracy has brought, even making it illegal to buy
alcohol at college campuses
Key Indicators of Political Discourse
• Turkey is currently the #1 jailer of journalists in the
• December 2012, 49 journalists were imprisoned, the next
closest country was Iran with 45
• Anti-state and Terrorism charges were brought against the
• Erdoğan has charged at least 5 journalists with defamation
• Police are the biggest threat, they are targeting the
press, especially during the protests
• Resulting in equipment loss, physical threats, raids,
assaults, imprisonment, and obstruction
• Police do not fear being held accountable
• Government calls some journalists “terrorists”
Indicators of Islamic Political Subversion
• In addition to democratic reforms the AKP party
instituted Islamic reforms meant to address an
apparent lack of Islamic values, reforms such as
85,000 Mosques to date or 1 for every 300 people
90,000 Imams
Reinstated Imam-Hatip religious schools
New 4000 government sponsored official Quran courses
Sunni Islam teachings in school
Spending on the Turkish Directorate of Religious affairs has
risen dramatically
• 2002 Budget was 553 Trillion, has risen to 2.7 Quadrillion in
just 4 years of AKP rule*
Political Predictions
• If Turkey becomes radicalized with Muslim ideology:
• The extremist elements in power are met with a counter
movement, and civil violence/war breaks out in the country
• The extremist elements in power sever ties with Western
• Resulting in loss of European Union (EU) bid
• NATO membership may be jeopardized
• Turkey may turn to political alignment with Iran, which would
impact US relationship
• Invasion of neighboring countries, like Cyprus in order to gain
control of newly discovered oil
• This would lead to strained diplomatic relations for the
United States with countries in the region
• Israel is already on course to align with Cyprus- this will lead to
better strategic positioning for Israel
• This will also create tensions and increase the likelihood
for conflict
Political What-if Scenario
What if extremist elements were to take over Turkey?
• The fragile relationship between Cyprus and Turkey
would be shattered
• Ethnic cleavages would encourage internal dispute
• Increased violence at borders
• Civil war
• The drive for natural resources would push
extremist-Turkey to take control of Cyprus
• Turkey may experience a breakdown in relations
between EU and NATO
• Increased tensions throughout the region and within
• Loss of strategic access point for US and NATO
Erdoğan Approval Rating Faltering,
Indicator of Political Discontent
• Pew Research Poll shows that Erdoğan is losing
favor among the more secular groups of people
• 2011- after sweeping victories for the AKP- confidence in
Erdoğan was very high
2013- his policies, are falling out of favor with the secular
• Secular/religious divide
• It should be noted that the popularity poll was done prior to
the protests, and military action currently plaguing the
Pew Research also found that Erdoğan is losing favor with
people living in Istanbul
• Urban/rural divide
• His favorability is at risk- especially with the younger
generation of Turks
Erdoğan Approval Rating
Losing Favor
Confidence 2011
Losing Popularity
Pew Research, Global Attitudes Project: Erdogan more popular
among devout muslims. (2013). Retrieved from
Pew Research Center. (2011, June 7). On eve of elections, a more upbeat mood in turkey. Retrieved
July 8, 2013, from Pew Research Global Attitudes Project:
The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey
• Islam developed not only as a religious movement
but as a political force
• The Quran provides practitioners with the “Straight Path” or
Sharia, Islamic Law
• 1924-1926 Sharia Law system was officially abolished in
• “Turkification of Islam”
• Progressive reforms to Islam in order to mold the religion to
fit the national Turkish identity
• Translate Quran to Turkish rather than Arabic
• Prayers were spoken in Turkish
• Turkey has dense networks of Sufi Islamists
• Philosophically based
• Spread through storytellers, poets, philosophers
The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey
• The Turkish middle class movements have promoted
Islamic identity through new ‘identity spaces’
•Internet, social media, journals, news media and education
• Kemalism was established to secularize the state and
create a feeling of nationalism
• Backlash of movement has been the failure (due to military)
to incorporate civil society and democracy
• State
is effectively more important than the citizenry
• In order to connect with the Islamic foundations of the
country, Turkey officially established “Turkish-Islamic
• This increased the budget for the Directorate of Religious
Affairs, and began promoting religious activity
Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
• 1948- NATO was established as a defense to
growing Soviet threat after the WWII
1952- Turkey joined alliance seeking to strengthen
its defense policy
Geopolitical significance made Turkey an important
regional power
Turkey carried out duties as a member of NATO
through the Cold War and the Korean War
Since the 1980’s, Turkey has been involved in a
number of defense issues
Terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
• Imia/Kardak Crisis on the Aegean Sea
• Internal conflicts in the Balkans
• Gulf War
Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with NATO
• Later half of 1990’s- Turkey shifted its national
security policy into a more restrained civilian policy
• Following the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade
Center- Turkey shared a common focus on terrorism
Tensions rose in the USA when the Turkish Parliament
refused to send Turkish troops to Iraq in 2003 creating
conflict within NATO
• Turkey’s shifting focus to the Middle East
• Effectively pushed their EU ally aside
jeopardizing membership
• NATO is concerned
• New Strategic Concept (2010)
• Pro-Islamic Justice and Development (AKP)
Turkey's Geopolitical Relationship with NATO
Turkey believes the integration of all Western
Balkan countries in Euro-Atlantic structures is key to
lasting peace and stability in the region
In terms of military, Turkey is going to be a serious
problem for NATO if extremists come to power
This will have consequences for NATO
• Without use of the Turkish straits there will be issues with
Russia and Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia
Key Turkish Political Figures
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Prime Minister
Raised in a devout Muslim family
Mayor of Istanbul 1994-1998
Chairman of the AKP
Served a prison term for reciting religious poems
during a public address
Commenced EU membership negotiations during his
• Instituted many reforms
• Brought the countries inflation under control
Key Political Figures
Abdullah Gül
Member of the Welfare Party
Founding member of the AKP Party
1991: Elected to Parliament
2002-2003: Served as Prime Minister
2003-2007: Served as Foreign Minister
Abdullah Gül
2007 - Voters back plan to have presidents elected
by, popular vote rather than Parliament
Nominated presidential candidate in 2007 by, Prime
Minister Erdoğan
May 2007 - Gül’s first bid for presidency was blocked
by Constitutional Court over his secular views and
past membership in the Welfare Party.
August 2007 - Gül was elected as the 11th President,
after the AKP party won control of the Parliament
• Gül was the first openly devout Muslim President in modern
Turkish history
Justice and Development Party (AKP)
• Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi
• Developed out of the Welfare Party by, Abdullah Gül
and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in 1997
• They did not want their party to be solely based on Islamthey wanted to focus on democratic ideals
• Approach appealed to a much wider audience
• Fairly new to the political game in 2002, the party
was able to gain an absolute majority in the
Parliament by taking advantage of the economic
crisis of 1999-2001
• The party is viewed with suspicion by some
segments of the electorate, since they have strong
Islamic ties, and their policy output tends to lean
toward Islamic based ideals.
Justice and Development Party (AKP)
• AKP has clear Islamic roots
• Party founded by Erdoğan
• Came to power in 2002
• The main election promise was to gain EU status
• Only party in Turkish history to win 3 elections
• Has been considered moderate pro-Western party
• Favored a moderate approach to religious tolerance
• In recent times the party has evolved to become more
steeped in Islamic traditions
• Embraces Capitalism
• Party's agenda is conservative capitalism
• Their approach is often called Political Islam
AKP Political Goals
• To accomplish social reforms the AKP in 2002
established two primary goals*
• Instituted democratic social reforms that were more in line
with EU standards which appealed to the Turkish
• With these democratic reforms EU membership appeared
more likely which also earned Erdogan support from
• Business
• Academic
• Middle Class
• In addition, other reforms were instituted in line with
EU memberships guidelines
• Reform of the Judicial system
• Civil relations to the military
• Human rights
AKP Consolidating Power
• To consolidate these political gains the AKP leaders
established policies of reform that appealed to the
masses such as:
• Social reforms
• Creating a national agreement to address
Health care
Increased improvised infrastructure
Minority rights
• Refused to challenge secularism
• Accepted secularism and decided to work with the secularist
Created reforms to address the failing economy
AKP Consolidating Power
• The party has been at odds with the military and
Judicial branch over secularism
• Won the popular vote in 2011 by almost ½ and its 3rd
consecutive election
• The party also consolidated its authority over the
• Many senior military staffers resigned or retired early
• Some active duty generals were jailed for plotting against
the government
• Has no problems in relations with the US
Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK)
• Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK) known in English
as the Kurdistan Workers Party
• Formed to win rights to develop an independent
Kurdish state
One of the world’s largest “stateless” populations
• Approximately 30 million Kurds live between Turkey, Iraq,
Syria and parts of Armenia
• Today their goal is to have self-rule within a Turkish state
• Labeled as a terrorist group by the US government
and Turkey with approximately 3-5,000 members
• Turkey views the group as a direct threat to their
national security
Turkey has lifted their ban on speaking Kurdish, and allows
them some broadcasting capabilities
• Some cultural expressions are still forbidden by the state
Executive Branch
• Executive:
• President direct election- 5 year term
• Cabinet- Council of ministers, the Prime Minister appointed
by the President from members of Parliament
• Chief of State: President Abdullah GÜL, elected
August 28th, 2007
• Head of Government: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
ERDOĞAN appointed by the President in March
• No term limits
Transparency, Accountability &
• The graph on the following slide will outline some of
the issues that are facing the current administration
in Turkey
• Higher values are indicative of better governance.
Rank is an average between the lower and upper
• Turkey’s governance falls between the lower
percentile countries and the median percentile.
Transparency and Corruption
Legislative Branch
• Unicameral Grand National Assembly of Turkey
• 550 seats
• Members elected by popular vote every five years
• Closed List Proportional electoral system
• Does not allow citizens to directly choose candidates, rather they
vote for the party of their choice and the party wins a percentage of
seats based on the number of votes
• Last elections held June 2011
• Percentage of Vote, by party
Transparency, Accountability & Corruption
• No codes of
• Low integrity, leads
to lack of trust in
• The law for the most
part is in placehowever in practice
nepotism, cronyism,
and patronage take
center stage.
Fagan, C. (2011). Eu anti-corruption requirements: Measuring
progress in albania, kosovo, fyr macedonia, and turkey.
Transparency International, (p. 9). Retrieved July 8, 2013 from
7345/CIMAP_For Web.pdf
Judicial Branch
Judiciary: Independent Civil Law
• Consists of 5 judicial bodies
• Constitutional Court
• Responsible for constitutional review in all legal matters
• Also functions as the Supreme Criminal Court
• High Court of Appeals
• Examines rulings by lower court bodies
• Council of State
• Reviews rulings by administrative courts
• Court of Accounts
• Responsible for auditing all Turkish government fiscal matters
• Military High Court of Appeals
• Reviews rulings by military courts
• Military High Administrative court
• Exercises jurisdiction over military personnel
Transparency, Accountability &
• Lack of transparency
• Court decisions are only
open to the subject
involved and their
• High Board of Judges
and Prosecutors
• Created to act as
independent judicial
review- not open to
public review or any
other control
Fagan, C. (2011). Eu anti-corruption requirements: Measuring
progress in albania, kosovo, fyr macedonia, and turkey.
Transparency International, (p. 7). Retrieved July 8, 2013 from
7345/CIMAP_For Web.pdf
Turkey- Candidate Country for Membership
in the European Union (EU)
Turkey would benefit from
economic advantages associated
with trade within EU, as well as
direct funding from the EU budget
for overall economic prosperity
(see graph)
Turkey’s involvement with
European integration dates back to
• Ankara Association Agreement
(1963) for the progressive
establishment of a Customs Union
EU declared Turkey eligible for
membership bid in 1997
EU Candidacy continued
Turkey must make fundamental changes that will
affect all sectors of the country, defined by EU body
of law (the acquis)
2006- EU expressed concern over restrictions on the
free movement of goods
Unresolved problems/obstacles to membership:
Armenia, (Armenian Genocide)
Kurdish question
Cyprus issue
Turkey’s focus on the Middle East and the proIslamic background of the AKP may lead to a panIslamic movement, jeopardizing EU membership
The Refugee Problem
Syrian Refugees
Sunni Syrians are fleeing their war-torn country
Border towns in Turkey welcomed refugees
Approximately, half a million Syrian refugees in
There are growing frustrations with their presence and
growing numbers
Number continues to grow
Border guards are pushing back thousands of refugees
The cost is now hitting the $1 billion dollar mark for
the country
Local Turks complain rents are going up and wages
are being driven down by the Syrian presence
The Refugee Problem
Syrian Refugees
• Cultural and religious differences are igniting in
many border towns
• Reyhanli
• Antakya
• May 11, 2013- violence against the growing Syrian
population peaked in Reyhanli
• 53 people were killed in a twin car bomb attack
The Refugee Problem
Detailed illustrations showing influx of refugees
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. (2013, May). Refugee crisis worsens. Retrieved July 8, 2013, from Gulf News:
• The succeeding sections of the analysis will be
dedicated to exploring the possible implications of
the following questions:
• If and when Turkey is taken over by extremists factions,
what will be the consequences to United States’ interest in
this region of the world?
Civil War/ Internal Violence
Socio-political Cleavages
• Ethnic Groups
• Turkish 70-75%
• Kurdish 18%
• Other 7-12%
• Rich v. Poor
• Rural v. Urban
• Modern v. Traditional
• Religious v. Secular
Civil War/ Internal Violence
• Islamic Roots could invite extreme groups
• Muslim Brotherhood or Al-Qaeda
• Encourage violence in the state
• Syrian border violence would increase
• Border towns would see increased levels of violence
• May spread through the country like a plague
• Erdoğan or the extreme group that takes over may
increase rhetoric
• Encourage these cleavages to turn on each other
• Resulting in violent uprisings from all sides of the
Sever Ties with Western Democracy
• If extremist elements, such as radical Islamic groups,
take control of Turkey the results could be
detrimental to political diplomacy efforts between the
more westernized democracies
• Groups that could be impacted
• European Union
• We may see a political realignment in terms of
strengthened partnership with countries like Iran
Unbridled Invasion
• Turkish Republic of Northern
1974 Invasion
• Recognized by Turkey alone
• UN established a buffer zone
between north and south
• Southern Cyprus is a member of
the EU
• Turkey has begun encroaching
on southern Cyprus territory
Exploratory gas drilling off the
coast- The gas lies within the
Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone
• Tensions are on the rise as
ethnic differences become
center-stage for dispute
• If extremist elements were to take over Turkey the fragile
relationship between Cyprus and Turkey would be
• Ethnic cleavages would encourage internal dispute
• The drive for natural resources would push extremist-
Turkey to take control of the country
• United States based
company, Noble Energy
has taken the lead to help
southern Cyprus with
This oil would aid not only
Cyprus’ economy and
geopolitical positioning but
also the United States and
the European Union
• The United States would
• Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic
Zone (EEZ)
•Cyprus made a deal with Israel in
defiance of Turkey concerning oil
•Turkey believes this deal is in
violation of their rights in Northern
• Leads to potential political
alignment with Israel
•Political and military consequences
for Israel with more solid flyover air
space abilities
most assuredly wish to act
to protect their investments
•Tensions in this region will
and a fellow democratic
increase- potential for conflict
• Civil war in Turkey would seriously damage regional
economies including close allies to the United States
like- Israel
• Turkey serves as a strategic access point to the
Middle East for both the US and NATO
• Internal fracture would hurt the US and their ability to
access this very important region in the Middle East
• Turkey has long served as an example to many
Muslim countries in the area
• Their fall could create more strife/chaos throughout the
Resulting in loss of European Union bid
Turkey has already threatened to sever ties with the EU on
multiple occasions
Turkey’s leadership has become defensive toward the EU in
regards to their response to protests
Cyprus and Israel differences
If extreme elements take power in Turkey, they may continue
this trend and sever all ties with the EU
NATO membership may be called into question
During the Georgia War, Turkey began to move away from
NATO and toward becoming a more solitary power
If an extremist element took power, they may distance
themselves from organizations like this citing philosophical
Turkey may turn to political alignment with Iran,
which would impact US relationship
Up until 2011 Turkey and Iran had a productive relationship
Ties became strained because of differences in opinion
Arab Spring
Rising regional competition
Iran refused to discuss nuclear issues
This could easily be reversed especially if Turkey
severs ties with the EU and NATO.
The regional partnership would be a threat to
democracy in the region
Presented by, Darcy Pitkin and Kyle Leisner
Key Economic Indicators
What If Scenario
Supporting History
Economic Organization
Economic SummaryCurrent Concerns
• Turkey continues to be denied full membership into
the EU
• May 2013, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke announced intentions to taper $85 billion
in bonds that they buy each month. This will leave
countries with high-current-account deficits like
Turkey particularly vulnerable.
• May 2013, the Lira hit its lowest value against the
U.S. dollar in 17 months
Economic SummaryCurrent Concerns
• Political unrest, citizen protest can reduce foreign
confidence with future investment considerations
• Since the demonstrations started, the Istanbul stock
market is down 10 percent and interest rates are up
about 50 percent.
• PM Erdoğan’s paranoia concerning the protests
have caused him to accuse Koç for conspiring with
protesters. His claims that Koç “cooperated with
terrorists” could reduce their continued substantial
investment in the nation.
Economic Key Indicators
• Key economic indicators
Economic growth rate is declining
A departure from the boom over last ten years
Private sector borrowing is heavy in 2013
Indicator of some concern over near future government
control of the economy
Suspected increase in use of the Hawala system
• Decrease in Turkish stock market
Down 10% this year
Government alienation of the secular private sector
Erdogan’s accusations of terrorism towards Koc Holding
Economy in an Extremist Turkey
• If Turkey were to become an extremist, radical
Islamic nation:
• Turkey’s economy would face:
• Tourism decline
• Withdrawal of international borrowing/investment
• Inability to pay existing loans/debt problems
• Halt to oil transport development
• Loss of trade agreements
• EU Isolation
• Decline of Koç
• United States economy would face:
• Termination of trade partnership
• Loss of oil access opportunities
• Imposition of economic sanctions to Turkey and other supporter
• Strengthening of Iran/Turkey/Russia strategic bond
What if Turkey becomes extremist
• Turkey’s tourism industry will decline
• Tourism in Egypt dropped 37% during Islamic rule, a total
loss of $5 million in revenue
• 378,000 U.S. residents visited Turkey in 2011, that number
will drop substantially
• U.S. Department of State will issue travel warning advising of
potential safety concerns and/or terrorist threats.
• Radical Islamic rule will likely bring bans to alcohol and the
summer attire that westerners seek on a vacation.
What if Turkey becomes extremist
• Default of Private Sector debt (U.S. & European)
• $431 billion net external debt which accounts for 51% of
• $221 billion in borrowing this year alone
• Several of the international loans are short-term
• If Turkey becomes extremist, these lenders can leave
quickly and not return.
• Result: currency crisis, collapse of property market and a
threat to the stability of Turkey’s banks.
What if Turkey becomes extremist
Hawala Usage
• Hawala use increases during conflict situations where central
authority is either non-existent or weak
• In a radical Turkey, government distrust and a desire to avoid
the government reporting requirements of formal financial
institutions will heighten
• Turkey’s formal financial institutions will experience an economic
decline from decreased lending
• The use of Hawalas for financing terrorist financing will increase
• The Hawala system will continue to be used for Iran/Turkey
transactions out of the eyes of the U.S.
EconomicGeneral Statistics
• National Budget:
• Revenues: $179.9 Billion
• Expenditure: $200.4 Billion
• -2.6% Deficit
• Gross Domestic Product $ 1.125 Trillion
• Ranked 17th in the World
• Major Economic Sectors:
• Service: 63% of GDP
• Industry: 28.1% of GDP
• Agriculture: 8.9% of GDP
• (2012 estimated)
Economic Labor Force Statistics
Labor Force Demographics:
• Overall Labor Force: 27.11 Million People
• Unemployment Rate: 9% (2012 estimate)
• Labor Force Rate Per Sector:
Services: 48.4 %
Industry: 26.2%
Agriculture: 25.5% (2010 estimate)
EconomicSector Outputs
Primary Agricultural Outputs
Primary Industrial Outputs
• tobacco, cotton, grain,
olives, sugar beets,
hazelnuts, pulses, citrus,
• textiles, food processing,
autos, electronics, mining
(coal, chromate, copper,
boron), steel, petroleum,
construction, lumber,
Primary Service Outputs
• tourism, wholesale and
retail trade, transport,
financial services,
education, healthcare,
real estate.
Economic Sector Outputs
• Agricultural Output
• Turkey is the world leader in the production of dried figs,
hazelnuts, sultanas/raisins and dried apricots.
• Turkey has the largest milk and dairy production in its region
• The total exports of agricultural products (including
processed foods) reached $12 billion in 2010
• Agricultural Output Goals by 2023
• $150 billion agricultural GDP
• $40 billion in agricultural exports
• Becoming one of the top 5 countries in terms of agricultural
• Ranking number 1 in fisheries as compared with the EU
Economic Sector Outputs
• Tourism as a Service Output
• Turkey ranked the 7th and 6th most visited country in the
world respectively in 2009 and 2010.
• Turkey received $21.3 billion of tourism revenue in 2009,
and $20.8 billion in 2010.
• Tourism Goals for 2023
• Be among the top five countries in the world in terms of
attracting the highest number of tourists and receiving the
highest amount of tourism revenue
Economic Sector Outputs
• Petroleum/Oil as an Industry Output
• Turkey only produces approximately 270 million barrels
from the Hakkari Basin (2011)
• National consumption was approximately 706,000 barrels per
• 90% of their oil is imported
• May have other reserves in the Black Sea
• TPAO ( Turkey’s National Petroleum Organization) is working
with Exxon (U.S.) and Petrobras (Brazil) to explore
• Koç owned Tupras Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri (TUPRS) will
also construct a new $2.7 billion unit upgrade in November
2014 at its Izmit plant that will cut the country’s fuel-import
bill by $1 billion a year and allow its four refineries to work at
90% of capacity.
Economic Sector Outputs
• Turkey plays a bigger role as a conduit of oil
• Is considered the crossroads of oil between the east and
west as well as the north and south
• Significant volumes of Russian and Caspian oil are being
sent by tanker via the Turkish Straits to Western markets
• A terminal on Turkey's Mediterranean coast at Ceyhan
facilitates oil exports from northern Iraq via a pipeline from
Kirkuk and from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC) pipeline
• Several bypass routes for Caspian oil via the Bosporus
Straits have been proposed in Turkey
Economic Sector Outputs
Turkey: Crossroads of Oil
The proposed and existing pipelines, ports of entry and transportation routes for oil in Turkey
Kandiyoti, R. (2011, January). Pipeline chess across the black sea. Retrieved July 11, 2013, from Le Monde diplomatique
(English Edition):
Economic Sector Outputs
• Nabucco pipeline
• Western/U.S. Oil/Gas Interests:
European Union-backed
3,300-kilometer (pipeline between
Turkey and Austria scheduled for
completion by 2014.
Designed to transport up to 193 billion
barrels of gas annually.
Will increase gas supply to Europe
independent, of Russia; expand the
Southern Corridor capacity; and
possibly transport abundant Turkmen
gas to Europe, onto the United States.
Çimen, S. (2009, June 1). Energy and energy security: Turkey's
role. Retrieved July 10, 2013, from American Turkish Council:
Economic Debt
• Overall Public Debt Rate: 40.4% of GDP
• Was approximately 78% of GDP when PM Erdoğan came to
power in 2003.
• Turkey currently has no outstanding debt to the
International Monetary fund.
• In 2002 owed IMF $23.5 billion
• Made final payment to IMF in May 2013 for a $412 million
• Turkey’s private sector has began to borrow heavily.
• Current net external debt is for private sector $413 billion, or
nearly 51% of the country’s GDP.
Economic Hawala
• Hawala = Trust in Arabic
• Traditional Islamic method of exchanging money used frequently in
A funds transfer system based on personal trust-no receipts, no
audit trails, no banks
A money transfer without money movement
Registration is often required but most operate on the black
In Turkey from 1981-2000, 17% of transfers went unrecorded
Is used as a channel for terrorist financing, money laundering, drug
This system is also used by 40% of Turkish exports to Iran
This method used by Turkish businessmen called “Anatolian Tigers”
circumvent the formal data tracked by U.S. relating to sanctions for
supporting Iran.
Economic Economic Timeline
• 1990’s-Economic Turmoil
• (series of coalition governments with weak economic
policies, leading to high-inflation & boom-and-bust cycles)
• 2001-Economic Recession
• (deep economic downturn , GNP fell 9.5% in 2001, and
unemployment significantly increased)
Economic Economic Timeline
• 2001-May 2013- Steady Growth
• good monetary and fiscal policies and structural economic
reforms made with the support of the International Monetary
Fund and the World Bank)
• 2002-2007- 6% Average Economic Growth, one of
the highest sustained rates of growth in the world.
• Recent Growth Rates:
2010, 2011-9% Economic Growth
2012-2% Economic Growth
2013-3-4% Economic Growth (estimated)
Economic Foreign Investment/Trade
Central Intelligence Agency. (2013, May 15). The World Factbook: Turkey. Retrieved July 2, 2013, from
EconomicForeign Investment/Trade
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Investment Support and Promotion Agency. (2013). Invest in turkey. Retrieved July 5, 2013, from The Republic of Turkey Prime
Ministry - Investment Support and Promotion Agency:
Economic Foreign Investment/Trade
• Turkey ranks as the world’s 13th most attractive
destination for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in
2012, according to the A.T. Kearney FDI Confidence
• Has Bilateral Investment Agreements with 82
• Country remains heavily dependent upon capital
inflows (foreign investment)
• Foreign investor confidence is key for continued
economic growth for the nation
Economic Foreign Investment/Trade
• Has a Customs Union Agreement with the EU
• Not a full member of the EU
• Has Trade/Cooperation Agreements with 28
• Has Free Trade Agreements with 29 countries
Economic U.S. Investment & Trade Relations
• Turkey has several bilateral investment and tax
treaties in place, some of which are with the United
• Guarantee free repatriation of capital in
convertible currencies and eliminate double
• Ex. FSECC (Framework for Strategic Economic &
Commercial Cooperation )-Formed in 2009
• 2009-2011, U.S. exports to Turkey increased 106%
• 2010-2011 U.S. FDI in Turkey nearly tripled (385
Economic U.S. Investment & Trade Relations
• Over 1,200 U.S. companies now operate in Turkey –
a 50% increase since 2007
• Many new successful joint ventures between U.S.
and Turkish firms.
• Are designed to manufacture innovative products in Turkey
for both domestic production and export to third country
• Examples:
• General Electric invested $900 million in 2012,
• AmGen made a $700 million acquisition
• 3M announced a $500 million project.
Economic U.S. Investment & Trade Relations
• Other Turkey/U.S. joint ventures:
• Near Zero Zone
• A Turkish project focused on cost-effective energy efficiency
upgrades in which the U.S. has assisted with.
• U.S. provides technical training to industrial managers and has
shared new efficiency technology.
• Movement to Enhance Opportunities & FATIH Project
• American company investment in education by bringing high
speed internet access to classrooms.
• U.S. is also working with Turkey on improving healthcare,
pharmaceuticals, information & communication technology,
intellectual property rights, and agriculture.
Economic Role of Koç Holding Company
• Largest company headquartered in Turkey
• Secularist operation
• The company operates in five main segments of
Turkey’s industries:
• Energy
• Automotive
• Consumer
• Finance
• Other
• Accounts for 6% of Turkey’s economic output
Economy in an Extremist Turkey
U.S. Oil Interests
• U.S. will lose access to Turkey’s oil transportation
• Nabucco pipeline construction will likely cease
• A Turkey will likely strengthen oil ties with Iran &
Russia, the United States will lose out on Turkey’s
strategic link to this scarce resource.
• Turkey currently maintains strong oil ties with Radical
Islamic nations or Islam friendly nations
• 44% of its oil is imported from Iran
• 40% of its oil is imported from Russia
• Construction of Gazprom-backed South Stream gas pipeline
through Turkey-supported by Russia
Economy in an Extremist Turkey
U.S. Sanctions
• Under legislation signed by President Barack Obama
in December 2011, the U.S. will take action against
countries that continue buying large volumes of
Iranian oil
• Turkey, a major purchaser of Iran’s oil, was granted
exemption from this sanction.
• If Turkey becomes an extremist nation, the
exemption will likely lifted by the U.S.
Economy in an Extremist Turkey
U.S. Investment/Trade Relations
• If Turkey becomes an extremist Islamic nation the
U.S. may cease their economic relationship with
• $1.4 billion in FDI by the U.S. potentially will disappear.
• FSECC to facilitate trade relations will discontinue
• Elimination of imports and exports between nation
• Withdrawal of U.S. corporate investment (1,200 companies
including 3M, GE, Pfizer…)
• No collaboration on industrial & technological improvement
(Near zero zone)
• No investment in social improvements (FATIH)
Economy in an Extremist Turkey
EU Interests
• Turkey’s desire for full EU admission would be
• Possible revocation of EU Customs Agreement
• WIthdrawal of Major Western European trade
• Italy, Germany, UK, France
• Threat of U.S. sanctions may cause other EU
members less sensitive to extremist nation relations
to pull out of trade agreements.
Economy in an Extremist Turkey
Impact on Koç Hold Company
• Koç Holding Company accounts for 6% of Turkey’s
total economic output.
Secular corporation.
• Accused by Erdogan of “cooperating with terror” and
supporting the liberal protesters.
• Koç in an extremist Turkey may face major business
declines, boycotts and even prosecution.
• Koç’s shares dropped 17% during month of protests, will
continue to decline in an extremist state.
• Turkey has a history of prosecuting and fining corporations
for “anti-government” conspiracies. Koç could be next
• Koç’s financial collaborations with U.S. corporations (Ford)
would end.
Economy in an Extremist Turkey
• It is likely that Turkey’s economy will collapse as an
extremist nation.
• 10 years of economic growth will be undone
Revenue from tourism and oil transportation will be reduced
• Foreign direct investment will disappear
• Secular corporations (foreign and domestic) will leave
• Debt will go unpaid
• Poverty and starvation will increase
• Turkey lacks the industrial and agricultural resources to be
Presented by, Ekow Ocran and Enzi Jaureguui
Key Military Indicators
What-If Scenario
Supporting History
Turkish Military Organization
Military Summary
The primary role of the military in Turkey is to maintain
and protect the secular ideology founded by, Mustafa
Kemal Ataturk
• The Turkish political/military relationship is a unique
situation since the military's responsibility is to
safeguard against internal struggle.
• If one party comes to power and attempts to change the
secular ideals of Kemalism, the military will step in and
remove the leader (military coup)
• Once the military overthrows the leader, the military
will return governmental authority to the person they
have chosen*
Military Summary
• One of the largest standing militaries in NATO with
the exception of the US
• Key member of NATO due to strategic location and
geopolitical atmosphere
• Hosts US and NATO bases
• Military industrial complex has evolved and is now
capable of producing its own armaments, but prefers
to co-produce items with other nations
South Korea
Military Summary
• Most conflicts involved acting in conjunctive effort
with world powers- US, UN, NATO
• Last major contribution
• Korea 1950
• Involved fighting domestic terrorism PKK
• Only military involvement acted on independently
• Cyprus 1974
• Considered major ally in War on Terror
Military Summary
• Overall Military budget cut almost in half since 2000
• Military expenditures saw a steady decrease
• 2000-2005
• Increased Military expenditures slightly
• 2006-2012
• Top military commander
• Necdet Özel
• Appointed by Erdoğan
• Supports Islamic ideology
• Initiated many military coups
Key Military Indicators
• Continued AKP infiltration of pro-Islamic military
officers into current ranks
• Continued persecution of military officers in
authority to direct a coup
• Ongoing demonstrations concerning US military
• Concerning the expulsion of US bases
• Gradual overall decline in military budget
• Reduced military expenditures
• Turkish and Cyprus conflict will increase tensions
throughout the region
• Involvement of NATO into conflict
• Loss of NATO membership
• Possibility of open conflict with NATO countries
• Loss of membership
Voluntarily or forced
• Turkish Military Coup
• Resulting in interim government
• Possibility of disrupting stability and growth
• Civil war will cause more problems with the PKK
• PKK will become more bold and violent
• Kurdish PKK may try to declare independence
• US may choose to actively assist the PKK
• Turkey and Iran will become allies
• Both countries will have fundamental Islamic governments
in power
• This will cut off Europe from the Middle East.
What-If Scenario
What if extremists come to power in Turkey?
• Possible loss of strategic NATO ally
• NATO bases may be removed or lost completely
• European security will be jeopardized
• Regional military stabilization efforts will be affected
• Regional projection of U.S. military power will be
• Loss of strategic U.S. military bases on Turkish soil
• War on Terror will be affected
• Missile defense shield
What-If Scenario
What if extremists come to power in Turkey?
• Turkish-Cyprus conflict
• Israel may align militarily with Cyprus
• NATO military involvement on Cyprus' behalf
• Military cooperation with Israel will be affected
• Loss of Israeli military's ability to fly over Turkish airspace
Identification of key military assets for
U.S. Interests
NATO Patriot missile batteries- Adana
Command center for missile defense radar: Diyarbakir
Missile defense radar location- Kurecik base
Partnership for Peace Training center Command
Center of Excellence-Defense Against Terrorism
Allied Lan- Izmir
Incirlik Air Base
U.S. Office of Defense Cooperation
U.S. is involved in all of NATO's interests as well
US Air Bases
Izmir Air Base
• Major strategic military hub for strategic projection
of US Air power in the Middle East
• Joint US Turkish Base
• Supports major US assets
• 425th Air Base Squadron
• NATO CC 6th Allied Tactical Air Force
US Air Bases
Incirlik Air Base
• Second Major US military hub for strategic
projection of US airpower in the Middle East
• Under joint US and Turkish control
• Major US military assets
39th Air Base Wing
728th Air Mobility Squadron
385th Air Expeditionary Group
US and NATO Bases in Turkey
Zanotti, J. (2013, June 21). Turkey: Background and u.s. relations. Retrieved July 12, 2013 from The Federation of
American Scientists:
Turkish Military Budget
Military expenditures have shown a steady decrease
Gürleyen, I., Sinav, G., Şimşek, R., Karabiyik, S., & Tanriöven, A. (2008). Turkey - eu relations. (p. 6).
Retrieved July 15, 2013, from European Union Research and Application Center: Izmir University of
Turkish Military Budget
Military expenditures remained steady at 2.5% of GDP
Sönmez, M. (2013, April 27). Can the peace process cut the high security budget? Retrieved July
16, 2013, from Hurriyet Daily News:
Turkish Foreign Aid
Recent decline in foreign aid request
Zanotti, J. (2013, June 21). Turkey: Background and u.s. relations. (p. 23). Retrieved July 12, 2013, from The
Federation of American Scientists:
Turkish Military Organization
Supreme Command
• Abdullah Gül
• Supreme Military Commander
• Turkish President
• İsmet Yılmaz
• Minister of National Defense
• Appointed 6 July 2011 by, Prime Minister Erdoğan
• Member of the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
• Has same religious ideology (Islam) as Erdoğan
Turkish Military Organization
Supreme Command
• Necdet Özel
• Commander of the Turkish military
• Chief of the General Staff
• Came to power after previous military purge
• Appointment "marks the end of an era during which top military
commanders saw themselves as self-appointed guardians of
the regime"
Turkish Military CompositionContinued
• Troop Strength
• Active Military Personnel: 510,000
• Reserve Personnel: 378,700
• Paramilitary Personnel: 152,200
• Service Branches
• Turkish Army
• Turkish Air Force
• Turkish Navy
• Turkish Coast Guard (2012, December 4). Turkey maintains one of the largest militaries on the asian
continent. Retrieved July 6, 2013, from Global Fire Power:
Turkish Military compositionContinued
• Land Systems
• including tanks and armored fighting vehicles
• mostly modern equipment
• Total armour strength approx. 12,000
• Including Self-Propelled, towed and MLRS
• Mostly modern
• Total Artillery approx 3000
Logistical Vehicles: 23,691
• Air Power
Total Aircraft: 1,512
Helicopters: 570 (2012, December 4). Turkey maintains one of the largest militaries on the asian
continent. Retrieved July 6, 2013, from Global Fire Power:
Turkish Military OrganizationContinued
• Naval Power
Total Strength: 183
Aircraft Carriers: 0
Frigates: 17
Destroyers: 0
Corvettes: 7
Submarines: 14
Coastal Craft: 43
Mine Warfare: 20
Amphibious Assault:
• Logistical
• Labor Force: 26,690,000
• Merchant Marine Strength: 629
• Major Ports and Terminals: 9
• Roadway Coverage: 352,046
• Serviceable Airports: 98
Turkish Defense Industry
• Turkey's economic and military industrial complex
was traditionally insufficient to produce sophisticated
weapons like those of Western Europe
• AKP's priority is to emphasize development of
Turkey's domestic arms industry
• The Turkish defense industry
Employs ~50,000 at 110 firms
Most are state owned
• About 1,000 additional firms are subcontracted
Turkish Defense Industry
• Makina ve Kimya Endustrisi Kurumu (MKEK)
• Controlled by Ministry of Industry and Trade
• 12,000 employees
• Largest producer of weaponry in Turkey
• MKEK meets the requirements of the Turkish armed forces
for light arms
• Including the M-3 and MG-3 rifles which are of German design
• Ammunition and explosives
• Producer of antiaircraft and antitank guns
Turkish Defense Industry
• Most domestically produced military projects are
made in cooperation with allied foreign nations
• Local development of defense items is preferred
• Ankara prefers co-development agreements
• Turkey's domestic tank relies on a co-production
deal with South Korea's Hyundai
• The attack helicopter is a co-production agreement
with AgustaWestland
Noted Discontent Over U.S. Bases
• Previous discord between US and Turkish areas of
interest has resulted in strained relationships
Turkey has demonstrated control using U.S. Turkish bases
as leverage for political purposes
• Key areas of concern
• Turkish- Cyprus
• Turkish government decided to close down all
the American bases on its territory
• Only two active US bases remain
• US-Turkish jointly controlled
• Izmir
• Incirlik
Turkish-Cyprus Conflict
• Major issue affecting U.S. and Turkish relationship if
Turkey becomes radicalized
• Israel
• May align militarily with Cyprus
• Recently become intertwined in oil dealings with Cyprus
• Turkey believes they have claim to this resource
• If Turkey becomes radical Israeli and Turkish relationship may
suffer and ultimately resort to military action
• Loss of Turkey may result in NATO military action on behalf of
Turkish Conflicts: 1952-1974
• 1952- Turkey joined NATO
• Thereby abandoning Kemalists' neutrality policy
20 July 1974- Turkish troops invade Cyprus
Invasion justified as peacekeeping operation
Claimed need to restore constitutional order was disrupted
due to Greek military coup
There was a ceasefire 3 days after invasion
Turkish military occupied 3% of Cyprus
14 August 1974- Turkish military mounts another
offensive despite talks being held in Geneva
• Military increased hold on Cyprus to 37%
Turkish Conflicts: 1984-1990
1990- Turkey allows US- led coalition to launch air
strikes from Turkish bases against Iraq
• Turkey amassed troops on the border with Iraq during the
Gulf War
• Turkey allowed its airspace to be used by US and British
forces after Gulf war
• March 2011-Turkish military engaged in Libyan
• Provided a submarine, frigates, two tanker aircrafts and
four F-16's under UN resolution 1973
• May 2012- Turkish military is involved in
Afghanistan under UN authorized mandate
• Committed 1,327 troops
Turkey and the PKK
The PKK and Turkey have a long history of internal
Attacks by the PKK
PKK's primary targets
Turkish Government security forces
Local Turkish officials
Villagers opposed to PKK
Turkish tourist sites and hotels
Kidnapped foreign tourists in early to mid-1990s in an attempt
to damage Turkish tourist industry
Turkish military
Turkish Internal Conflicts: 1992-1999
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
1984- Launched separatist guerrilla war in
southeast Turkey
• Main goal of PKK is to establish independent Kurdish state
in southeast Turkey, northern Iraq and parts of Iran and
• 1992- Anti-PKK operation
• 20,000 Turkish troops enter Kurdish safe havens within
• Military intervention in Iraq was under an agreement with
Saddam Hussein
Turkish Internal Conflicts: 1992-1999
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
1993- Turkish ceasefire with PKK broke down
• Conducted attacks on Turkish diplomatic and commercial
facilities in European cities during 1993 and 1995
1995- Turkish military launched offensive against
Kurds in Northern Iraq
• Approximately 35,000 Turkish troops were committed to
the effort
• 1999- PKK leader Ocalan was captured, sentenced
to death but later commuted to a life sentence
• After arrest, Ocalan started a peace initiative asking
members to refrain from violence and maintain dialog with
Turkish Government on PKK Issues
Turkish Conflicts: 2002-Present
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
2002 PKK changed their name to Kurdistan
Freedom and Democracy Congress (KADEK)
2002 PKK committed to nonviolence
2003 PKK renamed itself to Kongra-Gel (KGK)
conducted self-defense attacks and promoted peace
June 2004 PKK's hard line militant wing renounced
self-imposed cease-fire for the last 5 years
• January 2012- Turkish military launched air strikes
on PKK targets in Northern Iraq
• 35 civilians were killed in the strikes
Coup d'etat 1960 and 1971
27 May 1960- Military initiated coup
Coup not from typical military hierarchy
Initiated by junior grade officers
Leader of the coup was General Cemal Gursel
• 1971- Military initiated coup
Removed Turkish Prime Minister Suleyman Gundogdu
Commanders sent memorandum to President Sunay
demanding a strong and credible government capable of
putting an end to what they referred to as an anarchical
Coup d'etat: 1980 and 1997
1980- Military initiated coup
Following political deadlock and civil unrest
Imposed martial law
Dissolved Turkish Parliament
Revoked the constitution
Shutdown all political parties
28 February 1997- 'Postmodern Coup'
• Military-dominated National Security Council issued a series of
recommendations/ultimatums to the government on actions
needed to "protect secularism
• then military overthrew the coalition government led by,
Necmettin Erbakan
• The military demanded Erbakan to stop or reverse policies
seen as promoting Islam in government affairs.
Military Coup and Current Politics?
• Implications involved with initiating a coup and the
effects on the nations people
• The current administration even with their infiltration
into the military ranks fail to recognize the tension
that exists between themselves and the military and
therefore fail to acknowledge the threat of a coup
• The Turkish military holds a significant amount of power
They have already mounted several successful coups
• If they feel the need to act there is little the current
administration can do to stop them
How will Coup affect Current Politics?
• Even though the politicians are installing high
ranking officers in the military, that will not stop the
military from acting:
• 27 May 1960- "Purging of Group 14"
• An internal confrontation within the army
• Several low-ranking military officers overthrew the government
and purged high ranking military officers
• The "young officers" were still uneasy.
• This was followed by a "coup within the coup" six months later
• The military officers were sent into exile
• This shows that the military will act if they believe that it is
High ranking officers do not have supreme control,
especially if the lower-ranked officers know they were
placed in their position by politicians
Military’s Current Moral Crisis
• 2003-2004 During its first term in office, the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP) introduced
several military reforms aimed at diminishing the
military’s power in politics.
Erdoğan has been slowly limiting Turkeys current military
involvement in politics
• Further attempts to diminish the military’s power due
to involvement in recent coups:
"Thursday, June 6, a criminal court in Ankara approved an
indictment filed by the Turkish prosecutor’s office- 102
retired military officers, including former senior
commanders, and a civilian will be tried over charges of
staging the "post-modern coup of Feb. 28, 1997.”
Presented by, Jeff Sperry and Brendan Kinchia
Key Intelligence Indicators
What-If Scenario
Identification of Key U.S. Interests
Supporting History
Intelligence Organization
Foreign Relations
Intelligence Summary
• Modern Turkish Intelligence activities designed
along American and NATO models
• Has joint Turkish-Israeli Intelligence gathering
cooperation agreement
• Turkish intelligence agencies play a key role for the
NATO alliance due to
Strategic location
Unique ability to Develop assets where the U.S cannot
• SIGNET-Signals Intelligence
• HUMINT-Human Intelligence
• Have recently increased intelligence cooperation
with Iran
Intelligence and Cyber Indicators
• Turkey's intelligence relationship with the US has
cooled since 2004, primarily due to US support for
the Kurdish PKK party
• Turkey recently established intelligence sharing
capabilities with Iran in order to combat PKK
• Turkey provided US equipment to Iran
Intelligence Cooperation Predictions
Impact on SIGINT and HUMINT ability for U.S. in the
Middle East
Turkish Intent:
• Form strategic intelligence partnerships in the Middle
• Seek opportunities to acquire intelligence on militant PKK activities
• Dependence on Iran and Russia for energy necessitates a close
• Leverage geographic advantage and SIGINT strengths to build strong
intelligence partnerships
• Loss of intelligence relationship with Israel due to
differences in ideology
• Israeli jets may no longer be allowed to fly over Turkish airspace
• Turkish SIGINT capabilities along the Israeli flight path could be used
against Israel
Intelligence Cooperation Predictions
Turkey opts to cut off intelligence sharing and
surveillance with U.S. and Israel
Turkey will be an attractive intelligence ally in the Middle East
due to geographic location and strong SIGINT capabilities
Turkey's Intelligence relationship with Israel will suffer:
Loss of intelligence sharing from Southern Syria
Potential weakening of intelligence on Syrian PKK
Loss of CIA assisted HUMINT capabilities along borders
Turkey’s drone technology for surveillance and counter
terrorism would evolve slower, if at all.
Intelligence Cooperation Predictions
Turkey opts to continue intelligence sharing and
surveillance with U.S. and Israel
• Tense relationship with CIA will likely worsen when working
with a radicalized Turkey
• Expect Turkey to leverage its desirable intelligence capabilities
to establish relationships with other radicalized countries in the
Middle East
• Expect Turkey to continue secret intelligence relationships with
other radicalized countries, deepening the CIA's distrust of the
Intelligence and Cyber What-If
• If the Turkish government succumbs to extremist
views, Intelligence and Cyber Security will be
affected by:
• Loss of intelligence cooperation with U.S.-Israel
• Could impact Turkey's status with NATO
• Possible decrease awareness on Syria and their
current conflict
• Possible decrease in HUMINT capabilities along
Iran and Syria borders
Identification of U.S. Interests
Current SIGINT picture for U.S. in the Middle East
• SIGINT listening post established at GED
headquarters in Gölbaşı (A, see map)
• SIGINT listening post in Iraqi Security Zone (B)
• Intelligence inter-dependence with Israel
SIGINT intelligence sharing:
Israel SIGINT closer to Iran
Turkish SIGINT surrounding Syria
• The Iraqi Security Zone and the Turkish/Syrian
border is the normal route for Israeli jets to fly
Identification of U.S. Interests
Current HUMINT picture for U.S. in the Middle
• Interviews along the borders with Syria and Iran
provide HUMINT on militant PKK activities (C) & (D)
• CIA Interviews of Syrian defectors as they cross into
Turkey provides HUMINT on the Syrian situation (C)
• Border with Iran provides HUMINT opportunities for
SIGINT / HUMINT focal points for U.S.
Turkey Intelligence and Cyber Security
Organizations primarily responsible for intelligence:
National Intelligence Organization –
MIT (Milli Istihbarat Teskilati)
• Primary State Intelligence procurement and handling organization
Undersecretary of Public Order and Security –
KDGM (Kamu Duzeni ve Guvenligi Mustesarligi)
• Domestic Intelligence analysis and dissemination organization
Gendarmerie Intelligence Organization –
JITEM (Jandarma Istihbarat Teskilati)
• Secret organization focused on counterterrorism
• Current existence and capabilities are unknown
Turkey Intelligence and Cyber Security
Organizations involved primarily with cybersecurity:
• Cyber Security Institute – SGE (Siber Güvenlik Enstitüsü)
R&D Institute, part of TUBITAK National Research Institute of Electronics
and Cryptology
• Computer Emergency Response Teams
• Information and Communication Technologies Authority –
BTK (Bilgi İletişim ve Teknolojileri Kurumu)
• Cyber Army Command
Turkey Intelligence Background
• History of Intelligence in Turkey
• Intelligence organizations date back to Ottoman Empire
• Early organization emulated intelligence services of
European countries
• Modern-day activities follow American and NATO models
• Joint Israeli-Turkey intelligence sites along Syrian, Iraqi and
Iranian borders
Intelligence Agencies
throughout the Years
• TESKILAT-I MAHSUSA (Special Organization)
• First intelligence organization
• Established on November 17, 1913
• Dismantled after World War I, October 30, 1918.
• Established after Teskilat-I Mahsusa was dismantled
• Involved in the National Liberation War
• Provided arms, supplies and equipment to fight forces in
Intelligence Agencies
throughout the Years
• HAMZA GRUBU (Hamza Group)
• Established on September 23, 1920
• Renamed Felah Grubu on August 31, 1921
• Continued activities until end of the National Liberation War
• Founded by Turkish General Staff; July 18, 1920
• Established to end chaos among the intelligence
• Dismantled on March 21, 1921.
Intelligence Agencies
throughout the Years
• Armed National Defense
• Approved by Turkish Grand National Assembly; May 3, 1921
• Consisted of an extensive network of spies a
• Dismantled on October 5, 1923.
• After foundation of Republic of Turkey, activities were carried
out by intelligence Branches of Army Inspectorships until 1926.
• Directorate of the National Security Service
• First Intelligence Organization for the Republic of Turkey
• Established on January 1, 1926
• Year later, reorganized under the Ministry of Internal Affairs
National Intelligence Organization (MIT)
Defence-Point. (n.d.). MIT-Turkey.jpg. Retrieved July 16, 2013, from
MIT Organization
Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Undersecretary of the MIT
Dr. Hakan Fidan
Deputy Undersecretary
I. Intelligence
Deputy Undersecretary
II. Intelligence
Deputy Undersecretary
Technical Intelligence
Deputy Undersecretary
Service Units
Service Units
Service Units
Service Units
MIT Background
• Established on 22 July 1965, by Law no. 644
• Run by an Undersecretary, reporting to Prime Minister
• Updated on 1 January 1984, by Law no. 2937, Law
on State Intelligence and the Turkish National
Intelligence Organization
• MIT effectively replaced the Milli Emniyet Hizmeti
(MEH/MAH), the National Police Service
• Approximately 5000 (full-time) employees work for
MIT with an annual budget of 996 million Turkish Lira
MIT Duties & Responsibilities
• Procure national security intelligence on immediate
and potential activities
• Meet the intelligence needs of the President, the
Prime Minister, the Secretary General of the National
Security Council, and of the relevant Ministries
regarding the national security policy of the State
• Make proposals to the National Security Council and
the Prime Minister on directing the intelligence
activities of public institutions
MIT Duties & Responsibilities
• Provide consultancy in technical issues regarding the
intelligence and counterintelligence activities of public
• Deliver the information and intelligence, the General
Staff deems necessary for the Armed Forces, to the
Headquarters of the General Staff
• Carry out other duties determined by the National
Security Council
• Carry out counterintelligence activities
MIT Relationship with Israel
• Cooperation began in 1997 as a joint effort to share
intelligence on terrorist activities.
• Israel/Turkey joint listening posts on the Syrian, Iraqi,
and Iranian borders.
• Information on the PKK and Syrian and Iraqi military
• Intelligence sharing has led to improved military
relationships between the two countries.
• Turkey and Israel have granted permission to each
other to use their airspace.
MIT Relationship with Iran
• July 2, 2012
Two PKK militants turned themselves in as part of a unit of 200 who
transported heavy weaponry to the southeastern Turkish district of
MIT was previously unaware of the activity
MIT had been sharing intelligence with Iran, unknown to the rest of the
intelligence community, and saw the lack of intelligence on the PKK
offensive as a betrayal by SAVAK (Iranian Organization of Intelligence and
National Security)
• “I am disappointed with the Iranians’ attitude. Turkey
was sharing intelligence with Iran concerning the
PKK, but Iran did not help Turkey know more about
PKK units on Iranian territory” – Prime Minister
• MIT’s assistance to Iran in providing US equipment
was seen as a betrayal to the CIA
MIT Relationship with CIA
• Historically strong relationship has cooled
considerably since 2004
• Ankara feels the U.S. presence in Iraq since the Gulf
War has allowed the PKK to flourish in northern Iraq
Perception the U.S. has been supporting the PKK
Claims the U.S. formed a Kurdish region in northern Iraq
Turkish public has been attributing the growth in terror attacks
to the U.S.
Concerned the U.S. might be willing to divide Turkey
• U.S. strategy is based on a rapprochement between
Turks and Kurds
U.S. is trying to bring Kurdish bodies closer to Turkey
Main obstacle to Turkish rapprochement is the PKK
KDGM Duties & Responsibilities
• Kamu Düzeni ve Güvenliği Müsteşarlığı (KDGM) is
the Under-secretariat of Public Order and Security (of
the Prime Minister)
• Established under Law no. 5952 to “ensure
productivity and effectiveness in the field of
• Responsible for domestic intelligence
• Produces counterterrorism policies and strategies
• Ensuring that the security forces and intelligence
agencies are analyzing, sharing and effectively using
• Fulfilling other duties assigned by legislation
JITEM Duties & Responsibilities
• Jandarma İstihbarat ve Terörle Mücadele (JITEM) is
a secret Gendarmerie Intelligence organization
dedicated to counter-terrorism activities.
• Established as a body within Gendarmerie General
Command without the approval of the General Staff or the
knowledge of the Interior Ministry.
• Little is known about JITEM’s official duties and
responsibilities due to the secrecy of the program.
• It is unknown outside of Turkish government whether
JITEM still exists at all.
JITEM Duties & Responsibilities
• Some People's Democratic Party (HADEP) leaders
claim that JITEM was opposed to the establishment
of democratic parties, like HADEP.
• Accused of involvement in dozens of unsolved
murders in 1990s.
• Many civil rights activists, politicians and business people
were kidnapped and murdered. Bodies were thrown into the
wells and others were doused in acid and thrown into the
• Organization has links to Ergenekon, which is a
clandestine criminal organization accused of
planning to overthrow the government.
Cyber Security Policies
• Ministry of Transport, Maritime Affairs and
Communications has overall responsibility for
establishing cyber security policies
• Information and Communication Technologies
Authority (ICTA) regulates cyber security issues
• National Cyber Security policy document established
in 2008; strategy document in October 2012
• Cabinet Decision Nr. 2012/3842 established a
National Cyber Security Board in October 2012 to
oversee cyber security issues
Cyber Security Institute
Duties & Responsibilities
• Siber Güvenlik Enstitüsü (SGE) is the Cyber Security
Institute under the Scientific and Technological
Research Council (TUBITAK)
• Information security consulting and services
• Military
• Public security institutions
• Private sector
Cyber Security Institute
Duties & Responsibilities
• Provides the following consulting services:
System security testing and auditing
Secure information system design
Information security management
Secure software development
IT product safety testing
Malware analysis
Digital forensic analysis
Network monitoring and intrusion prevention
Data privacy
CERT (Computer Incidents Response Team)
Information Security Training
Computer Emergency Response Teams
• Two accredited CERTs
• TR-BOME – government-run
• ULAK-CSIRT – belongs to the Scientific and Technological
Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for research and
Information and Communication
Technologies Authority (BTK)
• Bilgi İletişim ve Teknolojileri Kurumu (BTK) is the
Information and Communication Technologies
• Equivalent of the U.S. National Institute of Standards
and Technology (NIST)
• Regulates policies established by Ministry of
Transport, Maritime Affairs and Communications
• Anti-spam project in 2009 reduced spam e-mails by
99%, from 6.5 billion to 394 million
• Hacked in 2012 by unknown actors, victim of Denial
of Service
Cyber Army Command
• Established sometime in 2012, announced in
January 2013
• Established to counter cyber-terrorism attacks.
• Special unit created within General Staff with cooperation
with the Defense Ministry, the Scientific and Technological
Research Council of Turkey (TAK) and the Middle East
Technical University.
• Mimics the U.S. Cyber Command, subordinate to
Turkish General Staff
• Will function within framework of the National Virtual Media
Security Policy and protect public institutions and
• Has its own budget and an autonomous structure.
Cyber Army Command
• Monitors entire Internet network in Turkey, protects
state institutions
• Participates in national and NATO led cyber-defense
• “White Hackers” trained with specific expertise in health
defense, security, education, insurance and banking.
• Trained to look for vulnerabilities and weaknesses within
institutions and eliminate the vulnerabilities by putting up
defensive measures.
Timeline of Cyber / Intelligence Events
Alleged Turkish infiltration of the US State Dept, Pentagon, and Congress
to blackmail a Congress member to sway a Congressional vote on
recognizing the Armenian genocide.
01/06/2011 - DDoS attacks against multiple Turkish government websites
by Anonymous in response to Turkey’s plans to introduce Internet filtering.
01/25/2011 - National Cyber Security Exercise executed with cooperation
of the Information and Communications Authority (BTK) and TUBITAK
Informatics and Information Security Advanced Technologies Research
Center (BILGEM)
07/08/2011 – 74 websites and more than 100 Turkish government
domains attacked by Anonymous
Timeline of Cyber / Intelligence Events
2011 (cont’d)
11/09/2011 – Turkish Finance Ministry website attacked by terrorist
organization Kurdistan Workers’Party (PKK). Website replaced with
propaganda material.
03/01/2012 – Attack against Ankara Police Headquarters network by
RedHack. Leaked files were released on Attack was
performed in support of the AntiSec operation to attack all types of
government and security firms.
03/07/2012 – Attack against the Turkish Prime Ministry’s network,
attempting to access official documents of government correspondence,
initially attributed to Anonymous. Anonymous denied carrying out the
Timeline of Cyber / Intelligence Events
2012 (cont’d)
06/2012 – Turkish Intelligence betrays CIA; deceived by Iran.
01/24/2013 – Turkey’s Council of Higher Education (YOK) attacked by
RedHack. 60,000 documents leaked
05/06/2013 – Istanbul official government website defaced by RedHack in
“retaliation for of attack on people at MayDay and to commemorate
revolutionaries Deniz, Yusuf, Huseyin hanged on May 6, 1972.”
Timeline of Cyber / Intelligence Events
2013 (cont’d)
06/05/2013 – Turkish government networks attacked by Syrian Electronic
Army and Anonymous. The Prime Minister’s official website,, was compromised and access was gained to staff
email, passwords, and phone numbers.
06/12/2013 – MIT Undersecretary and the head of Israel’s Mossad Secret
Service meet in Ankara to discuss intelligence sharing between the two
countries and protests in Taksim square.
06/13/2013 – DDoS attack on Turkey’s Radio and Television Supreme
Council (RTUK) official website by Anonymous.
06/28/2013 – attack on Istanbul Special Provincial Administration’s website
by RedHack allegedly resulting in debt write-offs.
Cyber Threats
• RedHack
• Turkish based hacktivist
• Istanbul Police classify
RedHack as a “Cyber Terrorist
• Responsible for attacks on
multiple Turkish government
websites and networks
Cyber Threats(continued)
• Anonymous
• Loosely organized hacktivist
• Responsible for attacks on
multiple Turkish government
websites and networks
• Close relationship with RedHack
Cyber Threats(continued)
Syrian Electronic Army
• Syrian-based hacktivist organization
• 06/05/2013 – In coordination with
Anonymous, attacked Prime Minister’s
official website, gained access to staff
email, passwords, and phone numbers.
Kurdistan Workers’ Party
• Highly organized terrorist organization
focused on Kurdish nationalism
11/09/2011 – Defaced Turkish Finance
Ministry website with propaganda
Primarily a physical threat through
militant actions against Turkey
Impact to US without Turkey’s feed into
the NATO intelligence stream
US-Turkey defense relationship is critical to good relations
between Turkey and NATO
• Turkey will no longer host US-made radar system in Kurecik
Radar system turned Turkey into “intelligence-provider”
• Less intelligence sharing on Turkey’s surrounding countries
• No resolution to Turkey-Israel relations
• US desire to coordinate regional policies with both nations
• US’s interest in Turkish domestic and foreign policy issues
• No access to global hotspots
Impact on SIGINT and HUMINT ability for U.S. in the
Middle East
• Effect on U.S:
• CIA relationship will suffer as a close ally of Israel and
adversary of Iran
• Loss of HUMINT capabilities on Turkish borders
• Loss of SIGINT capabilities from Gölbaşı and Iraqi
Security Zone
• U.S. loses key intelligence facilities from a critical area in
the Middle East.
• U.S. Strategy of facilitating a rapprochement between Turks
and Kurds is in jeopardy
• Intelligence channels to monitor militant PKK sects will be cut off
• A rapprochement will start to slip away without solid intelligence
analysis of both sides in the conflict
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