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CROSS-SECTIONAL MIXTURE MODELING 1 Shaunna L. Clark Advanced Genetic Epidemiology Statistical Workshop October 23, 2012 OUTLINE What is a mixture? Introduction to LCA (LPA) Basic Analysis Ideas\Plan and Issues How to choose the number of classes How do we implement mixtures in OpenMx? Factor Mixture Model What do classes mean for twin modeling? 2 HOMOGENEITY VS. HETEROGENEITY Most models assume homogeneity i.e. Individuals in a sample all follow the same model What have seen so far (for the most part) But not always the case Ex: Sex, Age, Patterns of Substance Abuse 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 3 0 Alcohol Tobacco Cannabis Opiates Heroin WHAT IS MIXTURE MODELING Used to model unobserved heterogeneity by identifying different subgroups of individuals Ex: IQ, Religiosity 4 LATENT CLASS ANALYSIS (LCA) 5 Also known as Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) if you have continuously distributed variables LATENT CLASS ANALYSIS Introduced by Lazarsfeld & Henry, Goodman, Clogg, Dayton & Mcready Setting Cross-sectional data Multiple items measuring a construct Hypothesized construct represented as latent class variable (categorical latent variable) 12 items measuring the construct of Cannabis Abuse/Dependence Different categories of Cannabis Abuse\Dependence patterns Aim Identify items that indicate classes well Estimate proportion of sample in each class (class probability) Classify individuals into classes (posterior probabilities) 6 LATENT CLASS ANALYSIS CONT’D 1 0.9 C 0.8 0.7 0.6 Non Users 0.5 0.4 Legal Drug Users 0.3 Multiple Illicit Users 0.2 0.1 0 Alcohol Tobacco Cannabis Opiates Heroin x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 7 LATENT CLASS ANALYSIS MODEL Dichotomous (0/1) indicators u: u1, u2, ... , ur Categorical latent variable c: c = k ; k = 1, 2, ... , K Marginal probability for item uj = 1, (probability item uj =1 is the sum over all class of the product of the probability of being in class k and the probability of endorsing item uj given that you are in class k) 8 JOINT PROBABILITIES Joint probability of all u’s, assuming conditional independence: Probability of observing a given response pattern is equal to the sum over all classes of the product of being in a given class and the probability of observing a response on item 1 given that you are in latent class k, . . . (repeat for each item) 9 POSTERIOR PROBABILITIES Probability of being in class k given your response pattern Used to assign most likely class membership Based on highest posterior probability Individual P(Class1) P(Class2) MLCM A .90 .10 1 B .8 .2 2 10 MODEL TESTING Log-likelihood ratio χ2 test (LLRT) Overall test against the data with H1 being the unrestricted multinomial Problem: Not distributed as χ2 due to boundary conditions Don’t use it!!! (McLachlan & Peele, 2000) Information Criteria Akaike Information Criteria, AIC (Akaike,1974) AIC = 2h-2ln(L) Bayesian Information Criteria, BIC (Schwartz, 1978) BIC = -2ln(L)+h*ln(n) Where L = log-likelihood, h = number of parameters, n = sample size Chose model with lowest value of IC 11 OTHER TESTS Since can’t do LLRT, use test which approximate the difference in LL values between k and k-1 class models. Vuong-Lo-Mendell-Rubin, LMR-LRT (Lo, Mendell, & Rubin, 2001) Parametric bootstrapped LRT, BLRT (McLachlan, 1987) P-value is probability that H0 is true H0: k-1 classes; H1: k classes A low p-value indicates a preference for the estimated model (i.e. k classes) Look for the first time the p-value is nonsignificant or greater than 0.05 12 ANALYSIS PLAN 1. Fit model with 1-class 2. 3. Everyone in same class Sometimes simple is better Fit LCA models 2-K classes Chose best number of classes Seems simple right??? 13 NOT REALLY . . .LOTS OF KNOWN ISSUES IN MIXTURE ANALYSIS Global vs. Local Maximum Log Likelihood Log Likelihood Local Global Global Local Parameter Parameter Use multiple sets of random starting values to make sure have global solution. Make sure that best LL value has replicated 14 DETERMINING THE NUMBER OF CLASSES: CLASS ENUMERATION No agreed upon way to determine the correct number of latent classes Statistical comparisons (i.e. ICs, LRTs) Interpretability and usefulness of classes Substantive theory Relationship to auxiliary variables Predictive validity of classes Class size Quality of Classifications (not my favorite) Classification table based on posterior probabilities Entropy - A value close to 1 indicates good classification in that many individuals have posterior probabilities close to 0 or 1 15 SUGGESTED STRATEGY Nylund et al. (2007), Tofighi & Enders (2008), among others Simulation studies comparing tests and information criteria described previously Suggest: Use BIC and LMR to narrow down the number of plausible models Then run BLRT on those models because BLRT can be computationally intensive 16 OPENMX: LCA EXAMPLE SCRIPT 17 LCA_example.R MIXTURES IN OPENMX Specify class-specific models Specify class probabilities Create MxModel objects for each class Create an MxMatrix of class probabilities\proportions Specify model-wide objective function Pull everything together in a parent model with data Weighted sum of the class models Estimate entire model Note: One of potentially many ways to do this 18 CLASS SPECIFIC MODELS nameList <- names(<dataset>) class1 <- mxModel("Class1", mxMatrix("Iden", name = "R", nrow = nvar, ncol = nvar, free=FALSE), mxMatrix("Full", name = "M", nrow = 1, ncol = nvar, free=FALSE), mxMatrix("Full", name = "ThresholdsClass1", nrow = 1, ncol = nvar, list("Threshold",nameList), free=TRUE), dimnames = mxFIMLObjective(covariance="R", means="M", dimnames=nameList, thresholds="ThresholdsClass1",vector=TRUE)) Repeat for every class in your model Don’t be like me, make sure to change class numbers 19 DEFINE THE MODEL lcamodel <- mxModel("lcamodel", class1, class2, mxData(vars, type="raw"), Next, specify class membership probabilities 20 CLASS MEMBERSHIP PROBABILITIES When specifying need to remember: 1. 2. Class probabilities must be positive Must sum to a constant - 1 mxMatrix("Full", name = "ClassMembershipProbabilities", nrow = nclass, ncol = 1, free=TRUE, labels = c(paste("pclass", 1:nclass, sep=""))), mxBounds(c(paste("pclass", 1:nclass, sep="")),0,1), mxMatrix("Iden", nrow = 1, name = "constraintLHS"), mxAlgebra(sum(ClassMembershipProbabilities), name = "constraintRHS"), 21 mxConstraint(constraintLHS == constraintRHS), MODEL-WIDE OBJECTIVE FUNCTION Weighted sum of individual class likelihoods Weights are class probabilities 2LL 2*log pk Lk k i1 So for two classes: 2LL 2 * log( p1L1 p2 L2 ) 22 MODEL WIDE OBJECTIVE FUNCTION CONT’D mxAlgebra( -2*sum(log(pclass1%x%Class1.objective + pclass2%x%Class2.objective)), name="lca"), mxAlgebraObjective("lca")) ) Now we run the model: model <- mxRun(lcamodel) And we wait and wait and wait till it’s done. 23 PROFILE PLOT One way to interpret the classes is to plot them. In our example we had binary items, so the thresholds are what distinguishes between classes Can plot the thresholds Or you can plot the probabilities More intuitive Easier for non-statisticians to understand 24 PROFILE PLOTS IN R\OPENMX #Pulling out thresholds class1T <- [email protected]$matrices$Class1.ThresholdsClass1 class2T <- [email protected]$matrices$Class2.ThresholdsClass2 #Converting threshold to probabilities class1P<-t(1/(1+exp(-class1T))) class2P<-t(1/(1+exp(-class2T))) 25 PROFILE PLOTS CONT’D plot(class1P, type="o", col="blue",ylim=c(0,1),axes=FALSE, ann=FALSE) axis(1,at=1:12,lab=nameList) axis(2,las=1,at=c(0,0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8,1)) box() lines(class2P,type="o", pch=22, lty=2, col="red") title(main="LCA 2 Class Profile Plot", col.main="black",font.main=4) title(xlab="DSM Items", col.lab="black") title(ylab="Probability", col.lab="black") legend("bottomright",c("Class 1","Class 2"), cex=0.8, col=c("blue","red"),pch=21:22,lty=1:2) 26 OPENMX EXERCISE Unfortunately, it takes long time for these to run so not feasible to do in this session However, I’ve run the 2-, 3-, and 4- class LCA models for this data and (hopefully) the .Rdata files are posted on the website Exercise: Using the .Rdata files 1. 2. Determine which model is better according to AIC\BIC Want the lowest value Make a profile plot of the best solution and interpret the classes What kind of substances users are there? 27 CODE TO PULL OUT LL AND COMPUTE AIC\BIC #Pull out LL LL_2c <- [email protected]$Minus2LogLikelihood LL_2cnsam = 1878 #parameters npar <- (nclass-1) + (nthresh*nvar*nclass npar #Compute AIC & BIC AIC_2c = 2*npar + LL_2c AIC_2c BIC_2c = LL_2c + (npar*log(nsam)) BIC_2c 28 TABLE OF RESULTS # Classes -2*LL Npar AIC BIC 2 6589.96 25 6639 6778 3 6329.95 38 6405 6616 4 6308.96 51 6410 6693 29 3-CLASS PROFILE PLOT 30 FACTOR MIXTURE MODELING 31 PROBLEM WITH LCA Once in a class, everyone “looks” the same. In the context of substance abuse, unlikely that every user will have the same patterns of use Withdrawal, tolerance, hazardous use There is variation within a latent class Severity One proposed solution is the factor mixture model Uses a latent class variables to classify individuals and latent factor to model severity 32 σ2 F FACTOR MIXTURE MODEL F C λ1 x1 x2 x3 λ2 λ3 x4 λ4 λ5 x5 Classes can be indicated by item thresholds (categorical)\ item means (continuous) or factor mean and variance 33 GENERAL FACTOR MIXTURE MODEL yik = Λk ηik + εik , ηik = αk + ζik , where, ζik ~ N(0, Ψk) Similar to the FA model, except many parameters can be class varying as indicated by the subscript k Several variations of this model which differ in terms of the measurement invariance Lubke & Neale (2005), Clark et al. (2012) 34 FMM PROFILE PLOT 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Non Users 0.4 Users 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Alcohol Tobacco Cannabis Opiates Heroin 35 HOW DO WE DO THIS IN OPENMX? You’ll have to wait till tomorrow! Factor Mixture Model is a generalization of the Growth Mixture Model we’ll talk about tomorrow afternoon. 36 MIXTURES & TWIN MODELS 37 How do we combine the ACDE model and mixtures? OPTION 1: ACE DIRECTLY ON THE CLASSES 1.0 (MZ) / 0.5 (DZ) aA 1.0 cB cA x1A eA eB CA CB x2A x3A x4A x1B x2B aB x3B x4B 38 WHAT WOULD THIS LOOK LIKE FOR THE 1.0 (MZ) / 0.5 (DZ) FMM? 1.0 1.0 (MZ) / 0.5 (DZ) aA cA eA 1.0 aA x1A aA cA cA eA CA x3A x4A cB eB eA FB FA x2A aB x1B x2B CB x3B x4B 39 FMM & ACE CONT’D One of many possible ways to do FMM & ACE in the same model Can also have class specific ACE on the factors Each class has own heritability 40 From Muthén et al. (2006) ISSUE WITH OPTION 1 Model is utilizes the liability threshold model to “covert” the latent categorical variable, C, to a latent normal variable This requires that classes are ordered Ex: high, medium, low users Don’t always have nicely ordered classes Models are VERY time intensive Take a vacation for a week or two 41 OPTION 2: THREE-STEP METHOD 1. 2. 3. Estimate mixture model Assign individuals into their most likely latent class based on the posterior probabilities of class membership Use the observed, categorical variable of assigned class membership as the phenotype in a liability threshold model version of ACE analysis Note: Requires ordered classes 42 OPTION 2A Contingency table analysis using most likely class membership Concordance between twins in terms of most likely class membership If your classes are not ordered Odds Ratio Excess twin concordance due to stronger genetic relationship can be represented by the OR for MZ twins compared to the OR for DZ twins. Place restrictions on the contingency table to test specific hypotheses Mendelian segregation, only shared environmental effects Eaves (1993) 43 ISSUES WITH OPTION 2 Potential for biased parameter estimates and underestimated standard errors Assigned membership ignores fractional class membership suggested by posterior probabilities Treat the classification as not having any sampling error Good option when entropy is high\ well separated classes Individual P(Class1) P(Class2) MLCM A .90 .10 1 B .8 .2 2 C .51 .49 1 44 SELECTION OF CROSS-SECTIONAL MIXTURE GENETIC ANALYSIS WRITINGS Latent Class Analysis Factor Mixture Analysis Neale & Gillespie, 2005 (?); Clark, 2010; Clark et al. (in preparation) Additional References Eaves, 1993; Muthén et al., 2006; Clark, 2010 McLachlan, Do, & Ambroise, 2004 Mixtures in Substance Abuse Gillespie (2011, 2012) Great cannabis examples 45