Energy - Water Science Group

Report
Dimensions of the
Water-Energy-Food-Security Nexus at the
Regional Scale
Hydrologidagarna 2014
Stockholm University
Jakob Granit, PhD
Centre Director & Deputy Director SEI
GEF STAP IW Panel Member
Structure of presentation
1.
2.
3.
4.
Context – WEF Nexus
Cases
Conclusions
Further work
Failure of meeting citizen and customer
demands – the “bottom billion”
Water
Water scarcity: Aggregated global water supply gap
estimated to be 40% by 2030 assuming no efficiency
gains
WRG 2030
Climate variability
increases water
resources
challenges
More than 75% of river flows
are allocated to agriculture,
industries or domestic
purposes
Water resources can be abundant but lack of
investment makes them unavailable for
exploitation
Indicators of water quality degradation
•
80% of the world’s
population is exposed to
high levels of threat to
human water security
(HWS)
– large scale transformation of
water systems through land
cover change, urbanization,
industrialization and
hydrologic infrastructure
•
Vörösmarty et.al.,
2010)
Dead zones in coastal
oceans have spread
exponentially since the
1960s
– Coastal eutrophication
fueled by riverine runoff of
fertilizers and the burning of
fossil fuels
(Robert J. Diaz & Rutger Rosenberg, 2008)
Transboundary freshwater resources – the
collective action dilemma
• Water (surface & ground) crosses
boundaries
–
–
About 279 TB river basins in the world, 45%
earth surface (Backer 2011)
Political & physical boundaries at local, national
& international levels
Recognizing:
•
The political economy in sovereign states
differ
G
–
•
Only 20% of all multipartite basins feature
multilateral organisations, (Dombrowsky,2007)
–
•
Underlying power asymmetries to consider,
(Zeitoun and Warner 2006)
7 are basin wide,
Cooperation compared to conflict
appears to be the norm in TB systems
(Giordano and Wolf 2003)
Granit 2012
Energy
Unequal consumption of energy
Nilsson et.al. SEI 20129
Growing energy consumption trends & links to
climate change
•
•
World energy consumption forecast to grow by
49 percent from 2007 to 2035
Quadrillion Btu
Fossil fuels expected to continue supply much
of the energy used worldwide
– 85% of global energy supply in 2008
– Availability of shale gas and oil is increasing
•
Renewable energy is relatively the fastestgrowing source of electricity generation
– Globally 13 % of primary energy demand is met
by renewable energy
– Almost 80 percent of the increase is in
hydroelectric power & wind power
•
Present emission trends put the world plausibly
on a path toward 4°C warming within this
century. (WB 2012)
Source: International Energy Outlook IEO 2010,
Reference case
Food
Crop area available is being reduced
FAO, 2011
Fertilizer use in agriculture is increasing significantly
FAO
Nexus
Development opportunities/benefits in the
nexus – conceptual model
1. Energy production
• Water use in all steps of the
thermal energy value chain
• Water storage for
hydropower
• Water for bio fuels
2. Primary production
• Agriculture
(irrigation & rainfed)
• Forestry
• Fisheries
3. Industry & urbanization
• Domestic use
• Industrial use
• Waste water treatment
• Tourism
4. Ecosystem services
• Water quality management
• Biodiversity & conservation
• Flood & drought protection
• Navigation
Granit 2012, based on Phillips, D., Allan, A., Claassen, M., Granit, J., Jägerskog, A., Kistin, E., Patrick,
M. & Turton, A. (2008).
Energy links to water withdrawal & water
consumption
• Global water withdrawal patterns – low efficency
– 70% Agriculture; 20% industry; 10% households (IWMI 2007)
• Regional differences & trends in water withdrawal
– EU: 44% for energy production, 24% for agriculture,
17% for public water supply, 15% industry (EC 2007)
– USA: 40% Irrigation, 39% Thermoelectric generation, 14% Public &
domestic supply, 7% Industry (US Department of Energy 2006)
• Global consumptive use part of total water withdrawal for electricity
generation is about 3-5% (15% of the world’s total water withdrawal, IEO 2012)
– Security of supply is important to guarantee power generation
– Return flows to be managed; temperature & quality
Case South Eastern Baltic Sea
Region
South Eastern-Baltic Sea Region
A micro-region defined by its transboundary waters lacking
cooperative frameworks
Key water challenges in the micro-region –
affects the economy as a whole
Supply
Deteriorating supply networks
Significant losses due to leakage
Lack of maintenance
Pollution
Point source pollution
Waste water treatment
Solid waste management
Diffuse source pollution from agriculture
Energy
Water for energy (cooling)
Energy for water (pumping)
Energy for regulation power (pump storage)
Health
Water related disease
Exposure to toxic waste products
Environmental change
Climate change and hydrology impacts
Failing ecosystems
Loss of flora and fauna
Fisheries affected
Development of protected areas
Governance
EU BSR laws & national law
Multiple stakeholders
Unclear institutional framework
Poor monitoring of natural & water
resources
Granit, J. J., Lindström, A., Dimitrevsky, V., Guterstam, B.,
Hellström, M., Kindler, J., Kramen, L., Okruszko, T., Paukstys,
B., Smorodinskaya, N. & Sorby, L. (2011).
The Water-Energy-Ecosystem Nexus and entry
point for Neman cooperation?
Water for energy production
– In the thermal power production process:
pump, cool, treat (nuclear, coal, oil, biomass)
– In hydropower generation
Energy (electricity) for water
management and supply to users
– Pump, Treat, Store
Ecosystem services
– Degradation of watersheds
Energy Markets
– Price, imports
– Baltic Energy Market Integration Plan
(BEMIP), BaltLink,
Case Euphrates and Tigris
Region
Options for Cooperative Action in the Euphrates & Tigris
Region - A hydro-economic model to support basin-wide
dialogue
•
•
•
•
Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey
Lack of cooperative arrangements
Major regional issues: salinity, dust and haze, loss of
ecosystem values, health and loss of economic
opportunities
2 yrs project with government stakeholders & regional
organisations
– Remote sensing, GIS & publicly available data
•
•
•
Granit, J. & Joyce, J. (2012).
Baseline hydropower value: USD 3.5 billion/y
Irrigated agriculture USD 4.8 billion/y
Shadow values for environmental flows
– Range between 286 to 515 million USD
•
Modelling & results can improve dialogue between
riparian countries on regional integration benefits
–
–
Measures to improve water use efficeny, Iraq
Nucleus for institutional framework:
Granit, J. & Joyce, J. (2012).
Characterization- Hydropower
Historical flows at Hit, Iraq 1937-73 vs 1974-98
Characterisation- Irrigated Agriculture
Satellite wetland classification – 2000
Case Southern Africa
Development Community
Southern African Development Community
(SADC)
Hydropower capacity developed and potential of
regional significance
5,500 MW Developed
39,000 MW potential
4,885 MW Developed
13,500 MW potential
Africa 63 Transboundary
basins
782 MW Developed
1000 MW Pump Storage
potential
Sources:
WB 2009
Transboundary Freshwater
Dispute Database 2000
SIWI 2010, Paper 16
ORASECOM (verbal)
Oil, gas & Coal deposits
Wind energy potential
Solar energy potential
Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) - Mechanism to drive
further power system & market integration
Conclusions
1. Policy cohesion in energy and water called for
• Water is a central component in today’s and tomorrow’s energy mix
– Water is critical for fuel production and power generation
– Power is needed to manage water and supply it to consumers
• World energy consumption forecast to grow by 49 percent from
2007 to 2035
• Water scarcity and quality degradation due to multiple demands
– Real issue in many part of the world
• Water and energy policies are and have been developed in isolation
– Urgent need to break this trend (Europe´s World #21, Special Section on
water)
Granit, J. (2012) Europe’s World Summer 2012
2. Power planning tools need to assess all available
energy and water resources at the appropriate scale
• Energy assets such as HEP, oil, coal, wind, solar, and bioenergy are
spatially distributed in all regions globally
• Water (surface & ground) crosses boundaries
– Political & physical boundaries at local, national, & international levels
– Upstream & downstream issues
• The generation of RE electricity through e.g. hydropower and
bioenergy provides a direct feedback loop to water management
– HEP and other indigenous power sources provide future price security and
reduces foreign exchange requirements for fuel purchases
• Using tools such as SEA allows for a systematic, and
comprehensive process of evaluating power program development
– The environmental effects and its alternatives
– Using the findings in publicly accountable decision-making
– Climate change mitigation & adaptation
Granit, J., King, R. M. & Noël, R. (2011)
3. Regional power market development improves
efficiency and reliability
• States cooperate when the net benefits of cooperation are perceived
to be greater than the net benefits of non-cooperation Grey et. al. 2009
• Electric power trade can transfer the benefits from transboundary
water management to load centers supporting integration in a region
– Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)
• Co-management of electricity networks in a market will get each
country access to a larger set of cost-effective energy sources
– Many countries already share electricity grids
•
Eg. Nordic Power Market (NORDPOL); Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Southern African Power Pool
(SAPP) and the emerging East African Power Pool (EAPP); Mediterranean power pool
• Power and transbounday water cooperation offers a rationale for
wider expansion supporting broader economic integration
Granit, J. & Claassen, M. (2013)
4. Large scale water storage has a key role to play
in the nexus from a regional perspective
• Large-scale water storage supports economic development, builds
water security and buffers against increasing rainfall variability
– Large potential still exists
• Well-designed water storage and hydropower systems can enhance
both climate change adaptation and mitigation
• HEP is a renewable source of fuel for electric power generation that
efficiently can enable other RE sources in a power system
– Hydropower & pumped storage can support the deployment of other sources of
Renewable Enegy (RE), peaking capacity
• Environmental and social consequences at the local and regional
levels need to be addressed up-front when developing water storage
– See eg: World Bank Safeguard policies; WCD; Equator principles; UNEP Dams
and Development; IHA Hydropower sustainability Assessment Protocol
Lindström, A., Granit, J. & Weinberg, J. (2012)
Further work
Methodology approaches- assessing the nexus
in a continuum
1.
Qualitative approach (light approach)
–
Stakeholder driven dialogues threats and opportunties
•
•
–
2.
Specialist reviews
Quantitative indicator based approach
–
–
–
–
Publicly available data supported by country data
Country surveys based on well-defined questionnaires
Describing the basin
Identify key insecurities in the WEF nexus
•
•
•
•
–
–
3.
E.g. Transboundary Waters Opportunity (TWO) analysis (SIWI 2008)
Scenario based approaches (Shell, 1972 -; SEI 2013, Sweden Green Growth)
Food & nutrition
Water supply, flood and drought etc.
Energy availability and access
Ecosystem services
Stakeholder dialogues to identify opportunities and barriers
Cooperative analysis and next steps
Quantitative modelling approaches (comprehensive) e.g:
–
–
–
–
SEI integrated Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and Long Range Energy Alternatives System
Planning (LEAP) Model (SEI 2012)
Hydro-economic modelling (SIWI 2012)
Climate, Land use, Energy, and Water Model (CLEW) (KTH 2011)
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approaches: EU/Espoo Convention, World Bank (2007)
Granit, J., Fogde, M., Hoff, H., Joyce, J., Karlberg, L.,
Kuylenstierna, J. and Rosemarin, A. (2013)
Thanks to Andreas Lindström, Marius Claassen, Kevin Rosner,
Charles Heap, David Purkey and many more

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