PowerPoint-Präsentation

Report
“Overview of the state-of-the-art, typical
components and applications and the roadmap
of solar heat in Germany up to 2030“
Jan Michael Knaack, Senior Project Manager
German Solar Industry Association
Warsaw, 19. March 2013
German Solar Industry Association
TASK To represent the German solar industry in the solar
thermal and photovoltaic sector
VISION A global sustainable energy supply provided by solar (renewable) energy
ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization
EXPERIENCE Active in the solar energy sector since more than 25 years
MEMBERS More than 850 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies
active in the solar business
HEADQUARTERS Berlin
A Popular Fallacy
Who would have thought this was the case?
Of 100 people asked, the figures below show
how many people thought that most energy
was used in these areas...
Warm
water
Source of data
Car
Actual consumption in %
Warm
water
Don‘t
know
Electricity
Car
Heating
Electricity
Solar thermal technology
Design of Solar Collectors
Unglazed collectors
Synthetic absorbers
Stainless steel absorbers
Flat-plate collectors Vacuum tube collectors
Standard flat plate collector
Standard tubes
Vacuum flat plate collector
(with spacer)
CPC tubes
Solar air collectors
Sidney tube (heatpipe)
Various Collector Types
Flat plate collector
Vacuum tube collector
Source of picture: Paradigma
Source of picture : Nau
Solar air collectors
Source of picture : Grammer
Swimming pool absorber
Source of picture : SUNSET
Sputtered
selective
absorber
<<
© Wagner & Co
© Bluetec
Technology: production, components, system design
Ultrasonic or
laser welding
>>
<<
Collector Design
© Resol
Heat meter, flow
meter, insulated
tubes…
>> >>
© Wagner & Co
© Aeroline tube systems
Storage Types for Single-Family Houses (EFH)
Stratified storage
500 - 3000 litres
Picture source: Sailer
Picture source: Nau
Picture source: Nau
Service water storage Buffer storage
150 - 1000 litres
500 - 1500
litres
application
Possible Installations for Collectors
Roof mounting
Elevation
Roof integration/solar roof
Facade
Domestic Hot Water Production
Market share in Germany: 50%
Typical data for Germany
(4-person household)

Forced circulation

5-6m² collector area

300-400 l. solar storage tank

End consumer costs
Image: Schüco
Image: Paradigma
Flat-plate or vacuum
tube collector
~ €4,000 – 5,000
Solar
station
with
controls
and
circulation
pump
Water
storage
tank
Cold water inlet
Condensing boiler
oli, gas
new: wood pellets
rarely: elec. power
Solar Thermal Combined System
Market share in Germany: 50%
Combined solar thermal
system
Image: Roto Frank
for DHW and auxiliary room
heating
 8-15 m² collector area
 500-1,000 litres combined
Flat-plate or vacuum tube collector
Solar
station
with
controls
and
circulatio
n pump
Combi storage
storage
 Forced circulation system
 End consumer costs ~
Dom. hot
water
storage
Boiler
€10,000 – €15,000
Heating
circuits
Buffer storage
Cold water inlet
Image: Paradigma
Sonnenhaus Lorenz Kumhausen
Construction in 2002 – Area 170 m² - Construction
costs 350,000 €
incl. Cellar + garage
solar coverage
DHW+ Heating
77 %
13
Source: Sonnenhaus Institut
Heat need:
Solart
thermal:
13
33 kWh/m²a
68 m² (45°)
Primary energy need:
Solar storage tank:
14 kWh/m²a
11 m³
Energy autonomy at home –
100 % coverage of heat and power with intelligent renewable energies
Heated area: 162 m² , heating need 12,000
kWh/a, primary energy need 1500 kWh / a = 9
kWh/m²a, electricity need 2000 kWh / a
www.das-energieautrake-haus.de
Attractive components for large systems:
Facade integrated collectors
© Schüco
© Schüco
Solar Thermal Market 2012
2.50 0
Annually installed collect or area [10 0 0 sqm]
Market Data Solar Thermal in Germany 2012*
2.0 0 0
Newly installed collector area
Total installed collector ar ea
Growth 2011/2012
No. of total systems installed
1,17 Mio sqm
16,5 Mio sqm
-9,3%
1.8 Mio
* preliminary
(Source: BDH, BSW-Solar)
01/ 2013
1.50 0
Evacuat ed t ube
Flat e Plat e
1.0 0 0
50 0
0
1992
1994
1996
1998
20 0 0
20 0 2
20 0 4
20 0 6
20 0 8
20 10
20 12
Development of support for ST in Germany
Beginning of
the 90‘s: some
of the German
states provide
grants for solar
thermal
systems
Problems:
Limited budgets,
different criteria
for allocation of
grants
1995: Market
intentive
programme
commences and
covers 30-40 % of
investment cost
Limits:
Budgets:ca.
30 Mio € for 4
years
1999: Budget
increased to 60
Mio € per annum
2001: Great
demand,
reduction of
grants to cover
only 10-15 % of
invenstment cost
2002: Market
crashes down
40%
2006: Boom in
demand, due
to high oil and
gas prices.
Budget ca.120
Mio €/a,.
Grants further
reduced
2007: Market
crash
Since mid 2007:
Increased support
for systems
2009: building
obligations
introduced and
budget increase
2010: support is
stopped, market
crashes
2011 /2012:
increase of
support per m²
Current support policies in Germany
Existing buildings (Market Incentive Programme MAP)
 Only support of combined DHW + heating systems with 90 € / m²
minimum of 1500 € / solar key mark approved collectors
 For extenisions of existing ST systems 45 € / m²
 DHW systems are only supported in big building > 3 or more
appartments & commercial buildings > 300 m² heated space
 Boni for change of heating systems, very efficient pumps, very well
insulated houses, connection to district heating systems
 Support for process heat + solar cooling systems of SME of
up to 50 % of investment costs
New Buildings: Renewable Heat Obligation (EEWärmeG)
New buildings must comply with very well insulation or use a renewable
heat source (e.G. solar thermal, heat pump, pellets, etc.) to cover
parts of the energy use
Industry roadmap for solar
heat
2030
 http://www.solarwirtschaft.de/en/start/english-news.html
Implementation of FE scenario is the central focus of the solar
heat roadmap 2012
“Business as usual“
scenario
BAU
“Forced expansion“
scenario
FE
“Breakthrough“
scenario
DB
• Comprehensive
implementation of the
actions according to the
roadmap
• Comprehensive
implementation of the
actions according tothe
roadmap
• Increase in fossil fuel prices
by  3-5 % p.a.
• Increase in fossil fuel prices
by  8% p.a.
• Significant change in
general conditions:
• Support as before
• Increased support during
the period 2014 – 2023
o Increase in global
ecological problems
• In conclusion: selfsustaining growth effect
o Increase in fossil fuel prices
by  11 % p.a.
o Equal ranking of support
for solar heat
The Six Strategic Focal Topics
1. Full focus on the expansion of the established segments in the area
segment single-family and two-family houses
2. Development of further market segments by acquiring additional
competence (multi family houses, solar homes, etc.)
3. Committed entry to the solar heat future market of industrial process
heat up to 100°C (better understanding of market)
4. Consolidation of competitive capability through cost-efficient system
solutions and active development of the structural change (simple
systems / specialisation)
5. Prioritisation of research for development of cost-efficient solutions
in the established segments and industrial process heat
6. Active communicative organisation of general conditions required
for the increase in solar heat (end consumer communication)
The 11 market segments have different strategic meanings
Segment
Strategic significance (FE)
2015
2020
2030



1
Modernisation of heating systems single-family house
2
SW expansion single-family house



3
New construction of single-family houses



4
Modernisation of existing systems in single-family
houses
-


5
Solar homes



6
Modernisation of heating systems and extension of
multi-family residences



7
New construction of multi-family residences



8
Non-residential building
-


9
Local and district heating
-


10
Industrial process heat up to 100°C
-


11
Industrial cooling and air conditioning
Strategic significance in line with export and breakthrough scenario
The full impact of the technology leap between 2015 and
2020
will only be felt during the 20‘s
10000 €
Qualification trade
9000 €
Technology leap
8000 €
Example of a cost and revenue structure of a combination system
(11 m2 flat plate collector) without deduction of storage price of a
gas-fired condensing boiler; net final price
Simpler,
faster
assembly
7000 €
HW - MO - SK + EBITDA
HW - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA
HW - KO - SK + EBITDA
6000 €
FGH - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA
5000 €
FGH - KO - SK + EBITDA
4000 €
HST - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA
3000 €
HST - SP+HW - HK
TCMStorage
2000 €
HST - KO - SK + EBITDA
HST - KO - HK
substructure
1000 €
0€
2000
2011
2015
Synthetic
collector,
or similar
2020
2030
Source: ITW, Technomar
HST = Manufacturer, FGH = Specialised wholesale trade, HW = Trade, KO = Collector, SP+HW = Storage and other HW, MO = Assembly
costs, HK = Manufacturing costs, SK + EBITDA = Other costs and operative reult (calculation based on full costs, not based on the difference
investment of storage)
Cost reduction up to 2020: -15%
Cost reduction up to 2030: -43%
The 12 Core Objectives of the Roadmap
Forced expansion
Scenario
2010
2020
2030
New installation of collector surface p.a. [million m2]
1.15
3.6
8.1
Installed collective surface [accumulated, million m2]
14
39
99
Installed solar thermal performance [accumulated, million m²]
9.8
27
69
5
14
36
>1
3.2
8.0
Share of solar heat in the heat requirements of German households [%]
<1%
2.7%
7.7%
Share of solar heat in the heat requirements (up ot 100°C] of German
industry [%]
0%
0.4%
10.2%
< 100
1,500
28,300
14
43
Solar thermal energy generation p.a. [TWh]
CO2 savings p.a. [million tons]
Installed systems for industrial process heat1 [accumulated]
Reduction in system price in housing per kWh [%]
Domestic sales of the industry sector [billion €]
1.0
2.4
3.0
German value added rate [%]
75
75
75
Export [billion €]
0.5
1.1
1.4
Conclusions
 German solar thermal companies can look back
on a long experience in solar thermal technology
development and applications
 So far the main market is the residential sector,
but many promising market segments are to
become economically interesting.
 Precondition is further political willingness to
support the technology as well as improvements
in the technology, esp. to enable quicker / easier
installation.
 In the Solar Thermal Roadmap 2030 (2012), the
industry has formulated realistic potentials and
has started to work on realizing those goals in
Germany.
Thank you very much for your attention!
Image: Grammer Solar und Bau

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