Climate Risk Management

Report
Development-Oriented Approach to
Climate Risk Management
Milen Dyoulgerov
Disaster Management and Adaptation Coordinator
GFDRR
September 21, 2010
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
The climate is already changing
Adaptation to these changes in the long term starts with improved
current climate and disaster risk management capacity
Approaching climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk
reduction (DRR) work as a continuum, as do our
developing country partners
CCA analysis and measures in DRR interventions is increasingly a
basic issue of due diligence, while CCA investments that do not
address current climate risks could fall short of meeting countries’
development needs
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
Linking Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation
Most climate change impacts, especially in the short to medium
term, will materialize through variability and extremes
Reducing disaster risk is thus a no-regrets CCA strategy
 DRR and CCA should
largely be managed as
one integrated agenda:
Climate Risk Management
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
Some terminology (cont.)….
Climate Risk Management
 treats economic development, DRR, and CCA as a continuum
 considers both short- and long-term climate variability and risks in an
integrated manner
 focuses not only on avoiding adverse outcomes but also on maximizing
opportunities in climate-sensitive sectors – e.g., farmer productivity
 covers a broad range of potential actions, such as land use planning and
zoning, financial instruments, infrastructure design and capacity
building, climate and weather information systems, early-response
systems, strategic diversification, dynamic resource-allocation rules, etc.
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
Climate Risk Management (CRM): How partner countries see it
 most developing country partners rarely make a distinction between
development assistance targeting current versus longer-term climate variability
and risk
 differentiation in financing modalities and sources can add confusion and deepen
institutional capacity and coordination issues
 most CASs/CPCs address DRR and CCA in conjunction, if at all
 countries like the Maldives and Vietnam take leadership by adopting integrated
national CRM strategies and platforms; other countries in the process of doing so
Vietnam
Current impact:
~1.5%GDP
CC projections: 1 of 5
worst affected countries
National Disaster Risk Reduction platform for information sharing, institutional
development, coordinated planning, sector work, and investments, including donor
programs and aid, related to all aspects of climate risk management
Central government coordination mechanism at the Vice-minister level chaired by
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development that brings together central and local
governments, academia, NGO/IGOs, and donors.
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
Climate Risk Management: How we see It
 The climate is already changing: from shifting seasonal patterns of precipitation and
extreme weather events to unprecedented floods, droughts, and heat waves
o adaptation to these changes in the long term starts with improved current climate and
disaster risk management capacity
o similarly, CCA investments should increase resilience to current climate variability while
preparing for future shifts in climate conditions
 From development perspective
o integrating CCA analysis and measures in DRR interventions is increasingly becoming a
basic issue of due diligence
o CCA investments that do not simultaneously address current climate risks could fall
short of meeting countries’ development needs
 From operational perspective
o shared analytical and methodological tools/approaches
o common risk financing toolkit of policies and products
o DRR often an entry point for CCA engagement
o post-disaster reconstruction as an opportunity for climate-smart (re)development
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
Climate Risk Management: How we see It
Opportunities in recovery
 reduction of climate vulnerability to future hazards
 climate risks addressed in recovery plans
 Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA)
to guide disaster and climate resilient recovery planning
o estimates of the damages and losses in all social and economic sectors
o base for a comprehensive recovery and reconstruction strategy
o examples: Namibia, Bangladesh, Haiti, CAR, Myanmar, Cambodia, Lao
PDR, Senegal, Burkina Faso…
 risk assessments as a basis for post-disaster land use planning and
building codes
o examples: Yemen, Madagascar
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
Climate Risk Management: How we see It
 majority of Bank analytical and programming work on adaptation at both country and
regional levels has been either initiated or co-financed by DRR resources as integrated
CRM initiatives—a similar trend emerges with investment operations
 CRM approach built in the PPCR country programs in Bangladesh, Zambia, Mozambique
(among others), based on existing DRR and CCA analytical and capacity-building work
 Climate Risk Financing advanced by Treasury, GFDRR, and Regions in an integrated
manner to meet partner countries’ DRR and CCA needs
Malawi Econ Vulnerability
and Risk Assessment
North Africa Adaptation
Action Plans
 assessing most threatening climate hazards, floods and droughts, followed by a probabilistic
risk analysis and projection of economic impacts as a foundation for CRM capacity-building and
investment
Moldova Disaster and
CRM project
 to strengthen national Hydromet Service's ability to forecast severe weather and improve
Moldova's capacity to prepare for and respond to climate disasters and future climate risks in
the agriculture sector in particular
Moldova PDNA
 in the aftermath of extreme floods preceded by extreme draughts, a window of opportunity
to build back better, incorporating climate-smart water resource management and
infrastructure
 CRM AAA financed with both DRR and CCA dedicated funds to assess climate risks with 2030
horizon and propose adaptation and preparedness options for Alexandria, Casablanca, and Tunis
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
Climate Risk Management: How we see It
ICM interventions bring high economic returns
A GFDRR-WB Study on
Economics of Hydrometeorological Services in
Central Asia :
 Investment in information
and knowledge: each € 100
spent in meteorological
systems yields at least € 200
in avoided damages
Source: World Bank.
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
Climate Risk Management (CRM): Changing nature of risk
Climate Risk Management
Risk
Assessment
Added factors:
 temporal
 spatial
 political economy
Risk
Reduction
Risk
Financing
Added factors
Added factors
temporal
temporal limitation
political
not to substitute for
political economy
development
intergeneration
financing
equity
Disaster
Preparedness
and Recovery
Added factors
adaptive functions
political
political economy
intergeneration
equity
Added temporal and political risk dimensions
Adaptive Risk Governance
Options-based management and adaptive decision-making
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Slow outset, long term structural
shifts in everyday and in extensive
risks
.
Washington DC, September 2010
The major developmental challenges and main drivers of underlying
disaster risks are also the major determinants for adaptation action

weak urban governance, vulnerable rural livelihoods, and
declining ecosystems,
Climate Risks are changing

quantitative shifts, in frequency and scale of extreme events

qualitative shifts, in risk types and threshold states

spatial shifts, with countries’ risk profiles changing
The approaches to managing these risk need to evolve

Integrated climate risk management approach as a developmentenabling factor
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
From concepts to development practices
 Strong methodological and operational base for integrating climate
adaptation in national strategies as well as in the critical window of
post-disaster recovery planning and operations, established at the
global level in cooperation with the UN, RMDBs, and the EC
Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers in
Least Developed Countries
100
2006 or before
Post 2006
80
60
40
20
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Uganda
Togo
Sierra-Leone
Sao Tome Pr
Rwanda
Niger
Mozambique
Malawi
Madagascar
Liberia
Haiti
Gambia
Djibouti
Central Afr Rep
Burundi
Burkina Faso
0
Benin
 Building on needs and synergies in
terms of geospatial and climate risk
information, GFDRR and the
Climate Change Team have initiated
country adaptation profiles for all
Bank Regions -- an operational tool
for practitioners for just-in-time
reference information, to be later
expanded with sector-specific
climate risk guidance
Washington DC, September 2010
 Building on its strong partnership with the WBG Treasury and the
Insurance Group, GFDRR is establishing a center of expertise for
catastrophic risk financing and insurance for providing analytical and
operational support
 Recognizing Social protection as a critical component of climate risk
management, GFDRR seed funding has enabled pioneering work on
the social dimensions of climate change in Africa and is now
supporting multi-country analysis on adaptation for the urban poor.
 On-going work on results measurement and indicators
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
Helping Partners Stay Ahead
Understand risks
and priorities
Design policies
Support line
ministries
Develop hazard and risk analysis, use improved climate data,
adaptation needs assessments
Encourage a shift toward climate-resilient growth across all sectors
Mainstreaming in existing strategies ensures that objectives are met;
use sectoral strategies to reach local governments and communities;
build on existing platforms
Provide budget allocation for:
• Climate-resilient public infrastructure (e.g., roads, dams)
• Preparedness and emergency response to extreme events
• Information to help citizens in their everyday decisions
(e.g., early warning systems, seasonal forecasts)
• R&D and extension services in agriculture
Plan ahead with Provide for unforeseen events; create contingency funds, sign
contingency funds contingent loans, and/or buy insurance for emergency responses to
climatic disasters
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010
Thank You!
For tools and information please visit us online:
 www.worldbank.org/gfdrr
 www.worldbank.org/climatechange
 www.worldbank.org/cif
Workshop on Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation
Washington DC, September 2010

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