SELECTION, SET UP AND SCOPING PP1

Report
International Conference on
“The Middle Income Countries Perspective on Sustainable Development”
In CIS, Eastern Europe and Southern Europe
16 – 17 May 2013
Minsk, Belarus
Towards Green Leapfrogging
Transition to Green Growth
MK (Myung-Kyoon) Lee, Ph.D.
Director, Green Growth Planning & Implementation
Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI)
Table of Contents
Brief Introduction to GGGI
What is Green Growth and Why
Case Study 1: Korea
Case Study 2: Kazakhstan
Brief Introduction to GGGI
2
GGGI’s Vision and Missions
Vision
Missions
A world-class international organization dedicated to promoting and
disseminating green growth worldwide, grounded upon partnerships
between developing and developed countries
1. Mobilizes world-class technical support and builds local capacity for
the design and implementation of green growth strategies
2. Provides an international knowledge-sharing platform for developing
countries, evidence-based learning and policy innovation
3. Deepening cooperation among developed, developing and emerging
economies and practitioners and scholars
3
Moving forward and fast
“GGGI will significantly
contribute to a variety of UN’s
activities regarding climate
change”
- UN Secretary General
Ban Ki Moon
Conversion into
an International
Organization, 18
founding member
states
The Creation of GGGI
announced by President
Lee Myung-Bak at the
UNFCCC COP-15
GGGI is launched at the East Asia
Climate Forum
Copenhagen, Denmark
December 2009
Seoul, Korea
June 2010
Rio, Brazil
June 2012
Seoul, Korea
Oct. 23 2012
4
Core Businesses
Working with partner governments and organizations.
GG Planning & Implementation
(Capacity Building & Knowledge Sharing)
Public-Private
Partnership
Partner
Gov./GGGI
Research
5
Key Principles and Delivery Model
 GGGI’s role
 A trusted neutral partner, helping to explore GG opportunities, particularly in developing
countries
 A platform for gathering different resources and technical capabilities for the purpose of
serving developing country governments, not an agent of any individual or group of donors
 Key principles when conducting its work




Begin based on the country’s current growth and development aspirations and plans
Develop rigorous analyses which will become a base for the GG plans and strategies designed
Train and develop country counterparts’ capacity throughout the analytical process
Engage actively with relevant inter-ministerial and inter-agency members and stakeholders
 Delivery model for GGPI
 With the adoption of GG plan, GGGI deploys a team of experts to work with those responsible
for implementation of the plan
 Team up with three available sets of human resources: local government counterparts critical
to sustainability and long-term impact of the project; staff of GGGI providing significant
analytical skills and sectoral expertise; external consultants complementary to GGGI’s
capacity
6
What is GG and why?
7
Global Risks 2011
8
Global Challenges: Need a New Paradigm
 New constraints & challenges
 Resource constraints: depleting natural resources, diminishing space per capita
 Deepening economic & social inequality
 Climate Change: unprecedented, highly uncertain
 Degraded Earth’s carrying capacity: food & water security, biodiversity loss,
deforestation, ocean and soil acidification
 A changing globalized world
 Accelerating increase in demand for resources by connecting the world real time
 Aggravating frustration and anger of the poor
 Social, political, economic instability increase
9
Global Challenges: Need a New Paradigm
 Need a new development paradigm to simultaneously address
economic, environmental and social challenges under new constraints
 Economic performance
 Environmental sustainability
 Social inclusiveness
 Urgent, strong, collective efforts required
 Decisive and strong action is urgent
 Delay means greater risks and higher costs for human development, economies and
the environment
 Collective actions of the global community required
10
What is Green Growth?
Economic
Growth
Green Job
Creation
Green Innovation &
Technology
Green
Growth
Climate
Resilience
Social
Justice
Environmental
Sustainability
Energy Access
& Security
Global Green Growth Institute : “green growth is the new revolutionary
development paradigm that sustains economic growth while at the same time
ensuring climatic and environmental sustainability. It focuses on addressing the
root causes of these challenges while ensuring the creation of the necessary
channels for resource distribution and access to basic commodities for the
impoverished (social inclusiveness). Under this new paradigm, new ideas,
transformational innovations and state-of-the art technologies will become the
major drivers for growth”
OECD : “Green growth means fostering economic growth and development, while ensuring
that natural assets continue to provide the resources and environmental services on which our
well-being relies. To do this, it must catalyze investment and innovation which will underpin
sustained growth and give rise to new economic opportunities.”
UNEP : “A green economy is one that results in improved human well-being and social equity,
while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. It is low carbon,
resource efficient, and socially inclusive. In a green economy, growth in income and
employment should be driven by public and private investments that reduce carbon emissions
and pollution, enhance energy and resource efficiency, and prevent the loss of biodiversity
and ecosystem services.”
11
Paradigm shift
Addressing the global challenges requires a comprehensive rethinking of
our ways of valuing and measuring socioeconomic progress and ecosystem
services.
A new paradigm should recognize inherent value of environmental
protection and social justice in enabling economic growth.

Rethinking of Growth Paradigm:
Quantity-oriented
(labor, capital)
: more input for
more output

Quality-oriented
(new ideas, innovation)
: less input but more output
Broadening the concept of “Going Green”:
Responding to
Environmental
Degradation,
Climate Change
Enhancing added value while
promoting resource efficiency
and social inclusiveness
12
The same goal, but different development path
C
B
A
Kim Hoseok (2012), GGGI
13
13
Green Growth
 Green Growth
 Is concerned with integrating environmental security and resource efficiency
considerations at the heart of country’s economic development planning and
implementation
 Accepts a country’s growth targets as a given rather than trying to adapt or
subordinate them to a particular environmental agenda
 Analyzes the policy options that could yield significant co-benefits for growth and
environmental protection and resource security within the economy or within its
significant sectors
 Is a practical attempt through economic policy to operationlize the normative
frameworks represented by the sustainable development
 Seeks to fuse sustainable development’s three pillars into a single intellectual and
policy planning process, thereby recasting the very essence of the development
model so that it is capable of realizing sustained economic growth while
safeguarding or improving the environment.
14
Case Study 1:
Korea’s Transition to Green Growth
15
The Green Leap Forward
Past 60 Years (from 1948)
Next 60 Years (from 2008)
Economic Growth
Green Growth
Quantitative (traditional, fossil fueldriven)
Qualitative (low-carbon, sustainable
development)
Factor-intensive (labor & capital)
Innovation-based (new ideas)
More input  more output
Less input  more output
High dependency on foreign energy
sources
Energy self-sufficiency (renewable
sources)
Aid recipient
Aid donor
Miracle on the Han River
Miracle on the Korean Peninsula
A History of Miracles
A New Dream
16
Why embrace a new development paradigm?
ECONOMIC
SLOWDOWN
CLIMATE
CHANGE
ENERGYIMPORT
DEPENDENCY
Economic
Growth
Social
Justice
+
Environmental
Sustainability
Green
Technology
By around 2100,
an increase in the
average
temperature by
4˚C in Korea will
inflict more than
US$45.5 billion of
cumulative
economic
damage.
A sea level rise of
80 cm will
submerge 605
km2 of area
(larger than
Seoul) and the
flood in 11 coastal
cities will affect
more than
370,000 victims.
If daily average
temperature
reaches 28.1˚C or
above, there will
be 11 additional
mortalities per
day in Seoul; a
temperature
increase of 4˚C
will reduce rice
yield by 15% in
rural areas.
Green Job
Creation
Energy
Security
Climate
Resilience
17
Green Growth in Motion: The Korean Experience
LEGAL & INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK
NATIONAL
Framework
Act on Low
Carbon,
Green
Growth
Presidential
Committee
on Green
Growth
(PCGG)
National
Strategy for
Green
Growth & its
Five-Year
Plan
2009-2013
REGIONAL
INT’L
East Asia
Climate
Partnership
(EACP)
Global
Green
Growth
Institute
(GGGI)
Korea’s Five-Year Green Growth Plan (2009-2013)
Green Growth Strategy
VISION
3 Objectives
Green Growth Plan for Implementation
VISION
10 Policy Directions
Actions
Climate resilience
& energy
independence
Diversification of energy sources and enhancing
energy security
5th Green Power by 2050
7th Green Power by 2020
Strengthening climate adaptation capacity
Development of green technologies
Creating new
growth engines
for sustainable
growth
The “greening” of existing industries and promotion
of green industries
Advancement of industrial structure
Engineering a structural basis for the green
economy
Improving quality
of
life & enhancing
international
standing
Greening the land, water and building the green
transportation infrastructure
Bringing green revolution into our daily lives
Becoming a role model for the international
community as a green growth leader
IMPLEMENTATION (based on yearly action plan, 2009-2013)
Efficient GHG emissions reduction
Investment
Plan
Major Expected Output
USD 5.1 bn
Publication of carbon information
USD 13.5 bn
Energy intensity
(toe/USD 1,000)
USD 32.7 bn
Increase in water resource
(100,000 m3)
USD 10.2 bn
World’s market share of green
technology products (%)
USD 4.1 bn
GHG reduction of industrial complex
(1,000 tons)
USD 9.8 bn
Export of broadcasting&
communication Industry
(USD 100,000)
USD 1.6 bn
Domestic carbon market size
(bn USD)
USD 22.8 bn
Public transportation use rate (%)
USD 1.7 bn
Green procurement amount (bn USD)
USD 0.6 bn
Green ODA (%)
Fiscal & Financial Incentives
Stirring the Green Market through Financial Inducements
Creating an Enabling Environment for Green Growth
20
Challenges Ahead
Sustaining the momentum
• This requires strong political leadership with clear vision
• Transition of power must not impede green growth initiatives
Providing the proper incentives
• Restructure the domestic market and energy system
• Introduction of carbon taxes has been opposed by top conglomerate firms
(However, the Emissions Trading System or ETS has been passed in May
2012)
Playing the global standards game
• Standards are critical in emerging industries such as smart grid
• Korea has to influence standard-setting process in the international arena despite
its small domestic market
Strengthening public-private collaboration
• The government has successfully collaborated with the private sector in the past
• Reforming the carbon and electricity pricing systems will challenge this relationship
21
Korea’s Performance in Green Growth
1. Environmental & Resource Productivity
Subject
Emission
Energy
Material
Water
Indicators
2. Natural Asset Base
Trend
GDP/GHG emission
Improving, but stagnant
in 2009
GDP/Primary energy
consumption
Improving, but stagnant
in 2009-2010
Share of Renewable
energy
Improving, but short of
target rate
Domestic Material
Consumption/GDP
Improving
Municipal waste per
capita
Insufficient, but improved
in 2009
Chemical fertilizer/
arable land
Improving: improved
greatly post-2008
Municipal water per
capita
Improving, but stagnant
in 2010
Environmentallyinduced health
problem
Access to sewage
treatment & drinking
water
Indicators
Trend
Population exposure to
urban air population
Improving: improved
greatly post-2008
Urban green space per
capita
Improving
Population connected to
sewage treatment
Improving
Population with access
to safe drinking water
Subject
Water
Indicators
Trend
Rainfall per capita
Stagnant
Area of forest
Decreasing
Timber stock
Increasing
Biodiversity
Share of threatened
wildlife
Improving
Fish
Share of aquaculture
Increasing
Forest
4. Policy Response & Economic Opportunities
3. Environmental Quality of Life
Subject
(based on OECD Green Growth Indicators)
Improving
Subject
Indicators
Green R&D
Government green R&D
expenditure
Increasing: increased
greatly post-2008
International patent
applications
Increasing
Environmental
industry
Environmental sector
employment
Decreasing, but began
increasing since 2008
Green Finance
Share of green ODA
Increasing
Share of
environmentally-related
tax
Decreasing, but
increased in 2010
Environmental
protection expenditure
Increasing
Green technology
Environmentallyrelated tax & recovery
cost
Trend
22
Korea’s Performance in Green Growth
 Korea at the green growth crossroads
 Korea has decided to change course from high-energy, import dependence to lowcarbon green growth
 Korea has moved from No. 15 in terms of climate-smart exports in 2005 to No. 7 in
2010, and expect to displace Japan as No. 4 in 2015
 The green strategy will survive beyond 2012 through innovation
Source: Korea at the green growth crossroads: Themes that will
sustain beyond 2012, HSBC Global Research, March 16 2012
23
Case Study 2:
Kazakhstan National Green Growth Plan
(KNGGP)
24
Introduction
KNGGP
Funding
Kazakhstan National Green Growth Plan (KNGGP) including:
Subtask 1: Water Supply and Wastewater Management Development Program
Subtask 2: Kazakhstan National Sustainable Energy Plan
• European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)
• 1.45 million euros
• Comprehensive national green growth plan based on analysis of
Kazakhstan’s green growth potential (KNGGP has been rebranded as “Input for
Intended Key
Project Output
a Strategy for Kazakhstan’s Transition to Green Economy”)
• Establishment of a water sector development program focused on
future private sector participation in PPP scheme
• Development of national level energy plans focused on renewable
energy, energy efficiency, and housing modernization
Overall Project
Outcome
• Framework for an inclusive green growth plan for Kazakhstan at the
national level
• An environment where a national level green growth strategy can be
adopted and implemented by the government and all stakeholders
Alignment to
GGGI’s Mission
• Advances the theory and practice of green growth by developing a
practical case study of formulating national green growth plan
• Facilitates public-private cooperation and mobilize private resources to
foster an enabling environment for resource-efficient investment
25
KNGGP Overview
The KNGGP aimed to promote, support, and develop a comprehensive national green growth plan for
Kazakhstan that is adequate for the country and will be implemented by the Government.
Rebranded as “Input for a Strategy for Kazakhstan’s Transition to Green Economy” in order to support the Green Economy Strategy of the Kazakhstan government.
Umbrella project
Kazakhstan National Green Growth Plan
Recommendations on national level strategy establishment for GG
( “Input for a Strategy for Kazakhstan’s transition to Green Economy”)
Sub-task 1
Water
 Water Supply and Waste Water Management
Development Program in Kazakhstan
 Analysis of current condition of Kazakhstan water
sector
 Case studies on international water sector reform
 Suggestions on institutional and legislative reform
for PPP Promotion
 Feasibility study for a water PPP project
 Development of concrete recommendations
and an action plan for water sector
development
Energy
Sub-task 2
 Guidance on critical elements for establishing National
Energy Efficiency Strategy
 Guide to the development of a Kazakhstan renewable
energy action plan
 Support plan on modernization and development of
housing
 Guidance on critical elements for establishing a Master
Plan for Water Resource Management in Kazakhstan
26
Kazakhstan’s Development Challenges
Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic performance is the strongest in Central Asia but the oil-rich country faces
imbalances in longer-term economic development.
Reducing excessive dependency on primary industries and
commodity exports, mainly oil & gas
National oil reserve of 39.8 billion barrels (2010), the country’s major revenue generator, is
estimated to last for only 63 years.
BASIC FACTS
Official name
Addressing lack of capacity and institutional structure, especially in
the water and energy sectors
Has significant gaps in energy and infrastructure sector, esp. on appropriate policies, markets and
institutional frameworks to allow efficient development of those sectors.
Capital
Astana
Official language
Kazakh and Russian
Type of government
dominant-party, unitary
presidential state
Leadership (Pres.)
Protecting its fragile ecology (semi-desert geography) from the
adverse impacts of climate change
Kazakhstan has been identified as one of the countries with high vulnerability and low adaptation
potential for climate change effects.
Republic of Kazakhstan
Nursultan Nazarbayev
GDP (2011)
$186 billion (total)
$11,167 (per capita)
Population
16,911,900
(Jan. 1, 2013 est.)
Major Industries
crude oil, base metals,
chemicals, food ,
agriculture
27
Kazakhstan’s Long-term National Vision
Kazakhstan, which is strategically located between Asia and Europe, has shown its
commitment to green growth.
Green Economy Strategy
to be announced
2030
2020
2013
National
Strategy
Strategic Plan 2020
(6 key themes including economic diversification)
Kazakhstan 2030
(7 long-term priorities)
In 2010, a national report on the Integration of Green
Growth Tools in the Republic of Kazakhstan was
presented at the 3rd Astana Economic Forum and at
the Sixth Ministerial Conference on Environment and
Development in Asia and the Pacific (MCED-6),
Astana.
Astana Green Bridge Initiative (AGBI), a
brainchild of the president of Republic of
Kazakhstan, was announced in 2011 to
promote green investment and green
technologies bridging Europe and AsiaPacific.
In accordance with the letter of the
Ministry of Environment Protection,
the Government of Kazakhstan
invited GGGI and EBRD to support
the government’s efforts to initiate
the KNGGP.
This puts Kazakhstan as the first in
Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) to announce a transition to green
economy and foster green policy,
technology, and investments in the region.
28
KNGGP Analytical Approach
Procedure
Analysis of Green
Growth Trend
Analysis of Green
Growth Trend
Review of Kazakhstan's Green Growth Potential
Review of
Analysis
Kazakhstan's Green &Industrial
Recommendation
Growth Potential
Economic Impact
Analysis
Output
 Kazakhstan
Macro economy
 Economic Trend
- Global Trend
- Regional Trend
 Environmental
Trend
- Climate Change
- Energy Crisis
 SWOT Analysis
 Necessity of
Green Growth
 Analysis of
National Plan
and Programs
- Purpose
- Current Policies
- Result of
Analysis
 Industrial
Analysis
 Economic
- Kazakhstan’s
Impact
Industrial
Analysis for
Structure and its
introducing
Current State
carbon
- Input-Output
charges
Analysis
- KEI Env- Priority Sector
Linkage Model
Analysis
Recommendation for Kazakhstan’s
Green Growth
Establishment of KNGGP and
Recommendation for Green Growth
 Green Growth for Kazakhstan
- Vision
- KNGGP
- Milestone
 Strategic Policy Directions for
Green Growth
- Greening Existing Assets
- Promoting New Growth
Engine through Industry
Restructuring
- Building the Foundation for
Sustainable Growth
29
Recommended National Level Strategic Framework for Green
Growth in Kazakhstan
Be Green Kazakhstan beyond the expected
Top Green Nation in Central Asia
Strategic Direction
Greening Existing Asset
Promoting New Growth Engine
through Industry Restructuring
Building the Foundation for
Sustainable Green Growth
Policy Direction
Enhance energy
efficiency
Forge national
water mgmt.
system
• Diversify energy
source
• Introduce
IWRM
• Effective
management of
national energy
efficiency (Upgrade
energy
infrastructure,
establish EEI, VA &
Energy Audit)
• Clear R&R
for water
mgmt. btw
ministries
• Green
transportation
Strategic reform in
industry structure
• Select and concentrate on
core industries for green
growth
• Green virtuous cycle
• New eco-friendly materials
and devices for building
and infra
• Shift to value added green
industry
Create green
education
and job
• Green
education
• Green
employmen
t
Mitigation of
GHG
emission
• Pollution
mgmt.
system
• GHG
inventory
system
Fiscal
support
• Green
finance for
green
technology
and
industry
• Green tax
Institutional
and legislative
reform
• Green
organization
and
governance
• Green M&E
system
• Green
Legislation
• PPP promotion
30
Lessons Learned
Key Lessons Learned
1. Strong Political Leadership
 Decisive resolution for transformational changes & reforms in institution,
incentive systems, organization, etc.
 Power to coordinate various views and different interests
2. Active Government Intervention (Top-down)
 Share Vision and set clear mid-to-long term goals
 Build strong legal & institutional frameworks to support policy
implementation
 Introduce consistent policies and regulatory schemes to spur real changes
 Maximize the power and influence of the market
 Provide incentives to engage the private sector
 Make consultation and coordination efforts for relevant stakeholders
32
Key Lessons Learned (contd.)
3. Active Participation from the Public (Bottom-up)




Increase public awareness on green growth
Devise action-oriented policies to induce public participation
Take active measures to lead behavioral changes of people
Disseminate the idea & practice of green growth to local communities and
rural areas to engage the entire nation
4. Mobilizing Global and Local Partnership
 Take into account trans-boundary effects of global challenges
 Mobilize resources from various partners overseas
 Share Knowledge with neighbors as well as global leaders
33

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