Joan Ogden

Report
KEEP MOVING,
TOWARDS
SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Thursday 11 October 2012
Vehicle and Fuel
Technology Options for
Sustainable Transportation
Prof. Joan Ogden
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Davis
3
11 October 2012
© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Global transportation energy use (2005)
4
11 October 2012
© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Current fuel/vehicle pathways (road veh.)
5
11 October 2012
© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Future fuel/vehicle pathways (road veh.)
6
11 October 2012
© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Vehicle commercialization timeline
Source: Cunningham, Gronich and Nicholas, presented at the NHA Meeting, March 2008.
7
11 October 2012
© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Historical data:
major US transportation infrastructures
time constants: 30-70 years
8
11 October 2012
© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
UC DAVIS RESEARCH
Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS)
Single Pathway Analyses and Comparisons
Hydrogen
Biofuels
Electricity
Fossil Fuels
Fuel Cell
Vehicles
H2-ICE
Vehicles
Bio-ICE
Vehicles
2nd Gen
Biofuels
Battery-electric
Plug-in hybrids
Bus. as usual
Low-carbon
fuels (incl.
CCS)
Consumer Demand & Behavior
Infrastructure Modeling
Vehicle Technology Evaluation
Energy, Environmental & Economic Cost Analysis
Scenarios & Transition Strategies
Policy & Business Decisions
9
11 October 2012
© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
10
11 October 2012
© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Findings
• A revolution in transportation technology will be needed to meet
societal goals. It appears to be technically feasible to cut
transportation- related GHG emissions by 50-80% by 2050.
• A portfolio strategy is essential, combining energy efficiency,
travel reduction and adoption of alternative fuels and vehicles.
• No single fuel or vehicle dominates the future. Instead, a diverse
mix of fuels in different regions & transport applications.
• Investments needed to launch new clean vehicles
and fuels << money flows in the current energy system.
11
11 October 2012
© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
Recommendations
• Near term actions to reduce transportation-related GHG
emissions and oil use & enable deep cuts by 2050.
- Increase efficiency of ICEVs, adopt lower-carbon fuels;
- Support emerging electric drive transportation technologies
(batteries and fuel cells);
- Continued R&D on “game changing” technologies;
- City-scale demonstrations to accelerate technology
learning at the system level.
• Ongoing science to assess impacts of different choices:
GHG emissions, oil use, and water, land, air and materials.
• Strong and consistent policies.
12
11 October 2012
© 2012 KEEP MOVING, TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY
E
I
T
l
13
[email protected]
www.rli.nl
#EeacRli
‘Group ‘EEAC-RLI Conference 2012 on sustainable mobility’
11 October 2012

similar documents