Initiatives on Monitoring ASEAN Integration and the ASEAN

Report
Initiatives on Monitoring ASEAN
Integration and the ASEAN Community
Progress Monitoring System (ACPMS)
Dr Melanie Milo
ASEAN Integration Monitoring Office
ASEAN Secretariat
High-Level Seminar on ACSS Strategic Plan 2016-2020
Bogor, Indonesia, 17-18 June 2014
The Mandate
o Blueprints:
o ASEC shall monitor and review the implementation
of the Blueprints
o ASEC shall develop and adopt indicators and
systems to monitor and assess the progress of
implementation
o Mid-term review to be undertaken when
necessary
ASEC Monitoring Tools
Goal /
Impact
Intermediate
Outcome
Immediate
Outcome
ASCC
Result/ General
OutOutcome
come Sectoral
based
level
Monito
outcomes
ring
system
ASCC
Scorecard
AEC
Cross
Sector
AEC High-Impact
indicators
A
C
P
M
S
ASR
AFIR
AISR
AIMR
AIS
Output
Activity
Input
ATSR
Compliance/
Implementation
Monitoring system
AEC Scorecard
ASCC
Blueprint
Implementati
on Monitoring
System
MDG
Who is monitoring the AEC Blueprint?
o AIMO
o
o
o
Input, Activity, and Output level: AEC Scorecard
Outcome and Impact: AEC High Impact Indicators
Outcome: Monitoring and Surveillance Report
o ASEANstats
o ERIA
o
o
o
Studies to Further Improve the AEC Scorecard (2010, 2011,
2012, 2014)
Focused on key areas
Questionnaires and surveys
Key Mandate of AIMO



Establishment of ASEAN Integration Monitoring
Office (AIMO) in 2010 by the ASEAN Finance
Ministers
Key mandate: strengthen regional economic
surveillance and monitoring of the AEC to support
the integration process
AIMO also serves as the policy support unit of the
AEC Department within ASEC, with support from the
Statistical Division (ASEANstats)
How does AIMO monitor the AEC?
Monitor the compliance of AEC commitments through the AEC Scorecard
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
How does AIMO monitor the AEC?

Development of monitoring reports and technical papers on various
initiatives under the AEC
Monitoring Reports
Frequency/Contents
Data/Indicators Used
ASEAN Surveillance Report
(ASR)
Annual; macro and financial
developments; progress
monitoring of AEC
Macro/surveillance data (real,
monetary, fiscal, external,
corporate sector data); AEC
compliance scorecard; trade
integration indicators
ASEAN Financial Integration
Report (AFIR)
Annual; assessment of financial
sector integration initiatives and
measures
Financial integration indicators
(quantity and price-based);
simple gravity/econometric
models; AEC compliance
scorecard
ASEAN Investment Surveillance
Report (AISR)
Annual; FDI developments and
trends (global and regional); FDI
policy issues and challenges
FDI indicators; AEC compliance
scorecard; trade costs and
business performance indicators
ASEAN Insurance Report (AIS)
Annual; insurance market
developments and trends; policy
issues
Insurance market indicators;
macro data
ASEAN Integration Monitoring
Report* (AIMR)
Annual; developments and trends
on regional trade in goods,
services, investment, and
facilitation; assessment of policy
issues
AEC high impact indicators; trade
gravity/econometric models
ASEAN Trade in Services Report*
(ATSR)
Annual; assessment of trade in
services trends and
developments; restrictiveness
index; actual services regulations
ASEAN services trade database
*new reports prepared in collaboration with the World Bank; first AIMR to be completed in October 2012; first ATSR to be
completed in 1Q 2013.
How does AIMO monitor the AEC?
 Development of monitoring tools/indicators and databases on regional
economic integration (e.g., AEC high-impact indicators)
How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?
o ASEAN Community Statistical System (ACSS)
o ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System
(ACPMS) and ASEAN Brief
o
Reports the General Outcomes of ASEAN integration
initiatives, both under the AEC and ASCC
o ACPMS 2007 and ASEAN Brief 2007 – first issue
o ACPMS 2012 and ASEAN Brief 2012 – second
issue
How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?
o Started with the ASEAN Base Line Report
(ABR) in 2005
o Monitor the programme and initiatives under the
Vientiane Action Programme (VAP)
o Measuring progress at programme level
o More than 300 indicators were introduced and
base lines were setup
o Difficulty in synthesizing the overall integration
progress
How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?
o ACPMS 2007, first issue
o Received support and commitment from the then
AHSOM (ACSS)
o Published and disseminated to the public at the
ASEAN Summit in Singapore, 2009
o Different focus
o
o
o
Reports the general outcomes of integration
Mostly outcome indicators
46 indicators: 21 AEC indicators and 26 ASCC indicators
How does ASEANStats monitor the AEC?
o ACPMS 2012, second issue
o Published and disseminated to the public through a
press release in 4 AMSs and ASEC
o Broader framework
o
o
Enhanced the Framework
57 indicators: 29 AEC indicators and 28 ASCC indicators
Framework: Monitoring the AEC
Single market
and production
base
• Free flow of goods
• Free flow of services
• Free flow of investment
• Freer flow of capital
• Free flow of skilled labour
Income convergence; Productivity convergence;
Intra-ASEAN tourism; Price convergence; IntraASEAN trade in goods; Tariff reduction; Trade
facilitation; Intra-ASEAN trade in services;
Services trade liberalization; Intra-ASEAN FDI;
Corporate tax rate; Convergence in financial
returns; Convergence in skilled labour wages.
Competitive
economic
region
Global competitiveness index; Technological
capacity (science and tech graduates, R&D
expenditures, researchers per population,
telephone subscribers); Science & technical
publications; Innovation (patent and trademark
applications); Technological capability (high tech
exports)
Equitable
economic
development
ASEAN6:CLMV ratios of income per capita, intraASEAN trade, and intra-ASEAN FDI, Cost of
business start up.
Integration
into the global
economy
Extra-ASEAN trade in goods, extra-ASEAN
inward FDI, extra-ASEAN tourism arrivals
Framework: Monitoring ASCC
Human development
Social welfare and
protection
Social justice and
rights
Ensuring
environmental
sustainability
• Education
• Human resource and
entrepreneurship
• Poverty
• Income distribution
• Health
HDI, education, literacy, school enrolment.
Poverty, income inequality, life expectancy,
child mortality, underweight children,
government expenditure on health, incidence
of diseases .
Female employment-to-population ratio, youth
employment-to-population ratio
Carbon emission, CFC consumption,
transboundary haze, extent of protected area
and forest cover, access to improved drinking
and sanitary facility.
(not available)
Building ASEAN
Identity
Narrowing the
development gap
ASEAN6:CLMV gaps in income distribution,
life expectancy, child mortality, literacy, school
enrolment, educational attainment.
Example of ACPMS Indicators and
the Rationale
Single Market and Production Base
• AEC 5.3: Intra-industry trade
– As economies become more integrated the value of intraindustry trade index would increase
• AEC 7: Cost to export and import one container of
goods (from World Bank’s Doing Business)
– One important measure of facilitating the establishment of
a single market is through trade facilitation. Trade
facilitation should lead to a lower cost of exporting and
importing goods
Example of ACPMS Indicators and
the Rationale
Single Market and Production Base
• AEC 12: Convergence in interest rates
– Real interest rates represent the real price of capital. As
the capital markets of AMSs become more integrated,
financial capital will flow more freely, and will be reflected
in the tendency for the real interest rates to become more
equal over time.
• AEC 14: Convergence in government bond yields
– With more integrated capital markets, there will be a
tendency of a co-movement in AMSs government bond
yields.
Way forward
 AIMO is working towards developing a unified outcomes-based
regional integration monitoring mechanism.
– A brainstorming workshop was funded by the EU-ARISE on
improving the current regional monitoring integration system last
week.
• Combination of international experts on regional integration monitoring
mechanisms and the desk officers.
– Other ongoing TAs
– Anchor the preparation of the ASEAN Integration Report;
accompanying volume to the ACPMS
• Important to effectively communicate the AEC in the lead-up to
2015
• A critical element of the AEC post-2015 agenda in order to
inform and guide the process towards deepening regional
economic integration in the next 10 years (AEC 2025)
Data Requirements
• With clear framework and rationale, data needs can
be specifically defined:
– Choice of indices/targets/indicators
– Quantitative measures have to be specified in terms of key
features, characteristics and data requirements
• Data sources: not limited to primary sources (data
that are already available in ASEAN Secretariat and
collected from NSOs); include secondary sources
(from multilateral organisations such as the World
Bank, IMF, UNCTAD, OECD)
THANK YOU

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