Smart and Skilled Presentation

Report
Smart and Skilled:
making NSW number one
11
Reform Environment
The Council of Australian Governments has agreed to a national framework
for reform of the vocational education and training system
–
a more flexible and demand-driven training system
–
greater contestability of funding for public training and greater
competition between providers
–
support for TAFE as the public provider
–
greater transparency in the system to support informed choices by
employers and students
–
a drive for improved quality
2
Doing what is best for NSW
Make NSW the number one for growth and jobs
NSW 2021: A Plan to Make NSW Number One:
– 50 per cent increase in the proportion of people between the ages of 20 and 64 with
qualifications at Certificate III and above
– 100 per cent increase in completions of higher-level qualifications at Diploma and above
– 20 per cent increase in the number of completions of higher-level qualifications at
Certificate III and above by women, Aboriginal students and students in rural and regional
New South Wales by 2020
We must adapt our vocational education and training system
to meet changing needs
3
Making NSW number one
New South Wales leads in high end services
NSW industry composition 2010
The NSW economy:
Manufacturing
9.8%
Construction
7.6%
over 30 per cent of Australia’s economy
Utilities 2.4%
Services
74.6%
GSP worth over $400 billion
generates $56 billion in exports
largest share of private investment
74.6 per cent of high-end services
Note: Figures refer to industry gross value added.
Source: Access Economics (2010) The NSW Economy in 2020: A foresighting Study: Report prepared for the NSW Innovation Council.
4
Growth depends on participation and especially productivity,
with 86% of those available already working
Economic Growth
Productivity
Underemployed
Underemployed
10%
Unemployed
force but
want to work
Not in labour
Participation
Fully Employed
Fully Employed
4%
7%
79%
5
Without intervention, there will be less growth in
productivity and participation
Forecast annual growth in
productivity, 2009 and 2050
Forecast participation rate,
2009 and 2050
66%
1.9%
Ageing will reduce
participation to
1970s levels
65%
1.8%
1.8%
64%
Projections of annual growth in real GDP
per capita (living standards), 2009 and 2050
2.0
1.8
1.9%
Lower growth
means $8,800 less
per person
1.6
65%
1.8%
1.4
63%
1.5%
1.2
1.7%
62%
1.0
61%
1.7%
0.8
60%
1.6%
60%
1.6%
0.6
59%
0.4
58%
0.2
57%
0.0
1.6%
1.5%
Past 40 years
Next 40 years
Past 40 years
Next 40 years
Past 40 Years
Next 40 Years
Source: Australian Government (2010) Australia to 2050: future challenges. The 2010 Intergenerational Report.
6
Education matters
The more you learn, the more you earn
$1,534
NSW median weekly
earnings (2009) = $863
$1,151
$896
$959
$671
$496
Year 11
$431
Year 12
Certificate I/II
Certificate III/IV
Advanced
Diploma/Diploma
Bachelor Degree
Graduate
Diploma/Graduate
Certificate or above
Source: ABS, Education and Training Experience (2009), Cat. No. 6278.055.
7
Future growth will be in high skill industries
1990-2020
This sector will soar in
importance, but will not
grow in workforce size
This sector will shrink
and decline in
economic importance
This sector will
employ significantly
more people
Source: Access Economics, Economic modelling of skills demand (2009); ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly (2010), Cat. No. 6291.0.55.003; ABS, Australian
National Accounts: State Accounts (2009), Cat. No. 5220.0.
8
NSW economy – future skills
The supply of high-level qualifications will fall short of labour market
demand by 2025
70,000
60,000
50,000
Projected student demand
Projected labour
market demand
(2025)
40,000
30,000
2025
10,000
2015
20,000
0
Certificate I/II
Certificate III/IV
Diploma/Advanced
Diploma
Undergraduate
Postgraduate
Source: Access Economics, Economic modelling of skills demand – NSW State results (2009).
9
Attainment levels will need to increase for all ages, especially for
those without a non-school qualification
Level of highest qualification by age, NSW, 2010
100%
9%
90%
80%
4%
9%
38%
30%
24%
25%
Bachelor and above
11%
10%
Diploma and Advanced
Diploma
18%
16%
Certificate III-IV
4%
Certificate I-II
3%
70%
12%
60%
11%
50%
40%
19%
18%
75%
6%
4%
3%
30%
No non-school qualification
20%
31%
35%
25-34
35-44
42%
45%
45-64
15-64
10%
0%
15-24
Source: ABS (2010) Education and Work, Australia, 6227.0 unpublished data
10
NSW Vocational Education and Training System
We have a quality system and a large market
Board of Vocational
Education and
Training
Policy, planning,
funding
TAFE NSW
Private Providers
10 Institutes
2,000 in NSW
NSW
Training
System
Apprenticeships and
Traineeships
Contestable Training
Market
165,000 in NSW
750 providers
11
Training completion rates must increase for
all states and territories
Training completion rates, by State
%
40
35
36.8
34.3
30
28.9
25
25.5
20
Under 25
Total
5
23.9
19.4
15
10
24.5
16.1
0
ACT
NSW
SA
WA
Qld
Vic
Tas
NT
Source: NCVER 2011, The likelihood of completing a VET qualification, 2005-07
12
The investment in training must be aligned to the
skill needs of the economy
Share of funded training compared to economic contribution, NSW 2010
Funded training 67%
Employment
Other industries
GSP
59%
58%
Funded training
High GSP
contribution &
high employment
industries
10%
32%
33%
68%
Employment 41%
GSP
High GSP contribution and high
and employment industries:
•Healthcare & social assistance
•Construction
•Finance & Insurance
•Manufacturing
•Professional, scientific &
technical
42%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Figures refer to publicly funded students commencing an AQF qualification in 2010. Industries are derived from NCVER training packages.
Source: NCVER National VET Provider Collection. Students 2010.
13
Directions for reform
• Increase participation in vocational education and
training
• Target vocational education and training to business,
industry and regional needs
• Role and function of TAFE NSW as the public provider
• Greater choice for individuals and employers
• Improve vocational education and training
completion rates
14
Entitlement
• A commitment to provide government subsidised
training to all eligible persons
• Student choice of qualification and provider
15

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