FSNWG Situation Analysis Outlook March 20140320

Report
March 2014
Food Security & Nutrition Working Group
Eastern and Central African Region
Agenda
March 20, 2014
Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO
Situation Analysis & Outlook:
ACF, FAO, FEWSNET,
Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, ICPAC, IPC, JRC, UNHCR,
09:30-10:30 climate, nutrition & refugees
UNICEF, WFP
IPC Regional-Global Strategy Launch
Presentation:
10:30 -11:30 Seeing business opportunity where others
don’t
IPC Global Support Unit
Equity Bank
Regional Highlights
March 2014
Current Conditions:
Mostly stable with specific areas in crisis or emergency (CAR/DRC/South
Sudan) and pockets at risk of further deterioration (Burundi, Kenya, Djibouti,
Sudan)
March 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Uganda
FEWSNET
The second season harvests
from November to January have
increased supplies on the
market.
Staple food prices are for the
most part not declining.
Most agricultural areas in
bimodal areas remain at
Minimal (IPC Phase 1).
Poor agro pastoral households
in Karamoja have entered the
lean season one-month early
No decline in IPC phase in due
to planned humanitarian
assistance from April to June
and small ruminant sales
Karamoja stressed but good generally and expectations for good for MarchSeptember rains
March 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Sudan FEWSNET Al Jazeera
The numbers in IPC 3 are expected to
increase with the early onset of lean
season in Mar/Apr.
Unseasonal food-price increases
reported as well as reduced labour
opportunities
Currency falling – unemployment
rising and concerns civil stability may
be undermined
Generally good conditions but South Kordofan biggest food security concern
due to impacts of conflict
March 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Eritrea JRC
The 2013/2014 Bahri rains have been
generally satisfactory in North Red Sea
Region
NDVI seasonally normal for main
pastoral areas
Poor rainfall in some cropping areas
may lead to below performance (main
cropping season for the country occurs
later in the year)
Likely - seasonally normal conditions
March 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Djibouti FEWSNET FAO GoD
The severely food insecure, mainly in
pastoral south-eastern areas
Annual inflation has increased slightly
to 3.2% in January
70% of rural households considered
food insecure in Feb 2014, unchanged
from 2 years earlier.
The October to February Xays/Dadaa
rains were mostly normal
Decreasing amounts of food aid
Southeast Pastoral-Border livelihood
zone, Obock Region, and Northwest
Pastoral livelihood zone will enter
Crisis (IPC Phase 3)
Larger food secure populations have
been reported around Ville de Djibouti
in the past
Most rural areas and households stressed some areas likely to fall into crisis
by April
March 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Burundi
FEWSNET FAO GTT
Ongoing harvests are replenishing
household food stocks
Price fluctuations continue to be above
the seasonal norm.
Plant diseases are affecting banana and
cassava across the country and are
likely to impact on household stocks
and increase market prices
Most of the country is IPC phase 1 poor households in the Plateaux
Humides could slide into Stressed levels
(IPC Phase 2) between March and
May/June
Chronic issues in Plateaux Humides
have worsened as traditional farming is
proving inadequate for subsistence let
alone improvement for the most
vulnerable
Minimal food insecurity, underlying chronic issues in Plateaux Humides may
lead to stress
March 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
DRC
GTT FAO Pronanut METTELSAT
Prices of staples were reported
stable or lower in February than
those reported in January.
March to May rainfall is expected
to be seasonally normal with the
possibility of above normal
rainfall in the north-east
The national nutrition surveillance
system reported 10 health zones
out of 244 reporting as “alert”
with the others as “watch” or
“under control”
conflict and displacement along
the border of CAR (provinces of
Equateur and Orientale Province),
as well as armed groups in the
Kivus continues to be cause of
concern & food insecurity
Poor but stable conditions with CAR border conflict and displacement
continuing to cause concern and food insecurity
March 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Kenya GoK
FEWSNET FAO ASAL Alliance OXFAM
Below average short-rains production
affecting food security but most of the
country remains stressed (IPC Phase 2)
Prices of maize firmed up in recent months
despite the newly harvested crops.
The long rains are likely to be normal to
above normal for the western half of the
country and normal to below normal in the
east.
Food markets in Turkana reported to be
operating normally
Food security assessments in Turkana,
Marsabit, Mandera and Wajir expose
extreme levels of poverty and vulnerability in
parts of these communities moreso than
impacts of “drought” – the most vulnerable
have no livestock and depend on
charcoal/fire wood, petty trade and casual
labour
Stable seasonal conditions for most of the country
with chronic vulnerabilities (mostly poverty) leading to pockets of crisis.
March 2014
Hotspots
Current Conditions: Hotspots & Watch
HOTSPOTS
CAR (Conflict, Displacement, Access) FAO
millions at risk of a full-scale food and nutrition
security crisis due to low production in 2013
coupled with prevailing chronic countrywide
malnutrition, extreme poverty and
inappropriate sanitation
South Sudan (Conflict, Displacement) AllAfrica
FS Cluster
IGAD and Egypt sending troops. Concerns for
displaced as rainy season looms.
March 2014
Outlook
Outlook:
April to June 2014
Easing of seasonal deterioration and improving with the onset of
the rains
• Key factors of food security performing as per seasonal norm
• dry season and intensifying lean season conditions unlikely to vary from the
seasonal norm
• Seasonal deterioration in the IPC phase classification in parts of Somalia,
Ethiopia, Sudan and Kenya is anticipated
• The onset of March to May rains in the region will trigger seasonal food
security and nutrition improvements
• Rains expected to be near normal for much of the region and below normal
in the eastern parts of the region
Concern remains focused on IDPs in South Sudan and CAR as well
as refugees originating from those countries and housed in
neighbouring countries
Seasonally normal lean period anticipated which should dissipate
with the coming of the rains. Food & nutrition security crises
continue in South Sudan and CAR
Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4)
March 2014
Current
Conditions
Seasonal increase reported in Somalia.
Current Situation: Vegetation and Agriculture
March 2014
Climate
•
•
•
Impact of abnormally good February rainfall visible in large parts of Kenya and
Ethiopia. Pastoral areas in Turkana and close to border with Somalia still very dry.
Below average NDVI in Uganda, linked to high temperatures?
Pastoral areas in North West and North East Somalia slightly better than seasonal
average
March 2014
Climate
Current situation
March 2014
Climate
ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue
through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014
March 2014
Climate
Consensus Regional Climate Outlook for March to
May 2014
March 2014
Climate
Projected global climate forcing processes
beyond May 2014
Most computer model forecasts indicate likely development of a weak El Niño
during the second half of the year 2014.
Updates will be released on regular basis and detailed climate outlook for the
June to August 2014 rainfall season will be provided at the Thirty Seventh
Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF37) to be held in
Khartoum, Sudan in May 2014
March 2014
Refugees
March 2014
Refugees
March 2014
Refugees
South Sudan emergency
Outflow
•
Number of refugees crossing into Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Uganda increased to over
217,911 since 15th December 2013.
IDPs
•
Number of IDPs, are currently 708,900 (14th March) ,UNMISS reported a drop in the
number of people seeking protection in its bases.
Food Security.
•
April/May rainy season is arriving with full pre-positioning impossible
•
Most roads/routes to Upper Nile inaccessible. Few routes to Unity, but security challenges
•
IPC classification and livestock report from FAO very bleak (3.9-4.3 million facing food
insecurity)
Security
•
Situation remains tense with an increase in reported incidents by UN Security
•
UN agencies reporting increase in road blocks, searches and harassment
•
IGAD members have authorized the prompt deployment of the Protection and Deterrent
Force (PDF) as part of the IGAD Monitoring and Verification Mechanism in South Sudan
Fundraising
•
South Sudan Situation Refugee Appeal has been launched seeking $370.8 million through
December 2014 for an estimated 340,000 South Sudanese refugees.
March 2014
Refugees
Nutrition/Food security issues
Uganda (81,345 since 15th December)
The table below shows the MUAC screening results(as of February 2014) for Camps in
Uganda.
Camp
Adjumani
Arua
Kiriyandongo
%GAM
24.3
15.6
16.0
===>Malnutrition rates are increasing due to deteriorating conditions of new arrivals
• New arrivals are mentioning that people are trapped in Malakal and Bor without
shelter, food or water
• 892 new arrivals last week
• All services are in place for protection and assistance, but challenged
Sudan(42,011 refugees).
•
WFP provided emergency assistance to about 18,000 new arrivals and seeking $3.5
million
•
About 350 new arrivals from S. Sudan per day in Alagaya and Kilo 10
•
Screening results show a proxy GAM of above 20%
•
Minimum Operating Standards are agreed but access remains a challenge
March 2014
Refugees
Nutrition/Food security issues
South Sudan (234,304)
•
1,634 refugees registered from CAR
•
Inaccessibility of Upper Nile and Unity camps hinders rainy season food prepositioning.
•
Full ration given in March and prepositioned for April in Unity
•
In upper Nile, partial ration was given for March and it is not clear if full basket
will be available for April.
•
Ajoung Thok population at 15,000 and all new arrivals to Yida are transported
to Ajoung for services
•
Increased tensions between refugees and host community in Maban (Yusuf
Batil) due to allegations of livestock theft
March 2014
Refugees
Nutrition/Food security issues
Ethiopia (65,389 since 15th December)
•
•
•
•
•
Rate of new arrivals has risen and more are reported to be on their way.
Space constraints and flooding are key concerns
Measles Vaccination and Vitamin A supplementation ongoing in Pagak with 22
suspected cases of measles identified in Pagak, Lare and Leitchuor.
Malnutrition rates in new arrivals to Pagak are critically high (39% GAM).
Relocation of 897 malnourished children and their families to the camps was
completed
Refugees report coming from far away from border and having sought refuge in
other parts of South Sudan before finally crossing
Kenya (25,099 since 15th December)
•
•
•
•
•
Rate of new arrivals around 360 per day.
Registration done using biometrics and will contribute to efficient and accurate
distributions.
Negotiations still underway for land for new camp.
High number of unaccompanied minors and separated children in Kakuma
(13,437)
WFP reports pipeline stress from April, if more resources are not received or
number of new arrivals exceed planning figure there could be shortfalls
March 2014
Refugees
CAR
Population of concern (PoC)
•
•
857,000 IDPs and 16,581 refugees (essentially of DRC and Sudan origin).
296,164 CAR refugees in Cameroon, Chad, DRC.
Security
•
•
The situation still remains volatile.
Plans underway to deploy more international troops and relocation of populations at
risk (as the last resort).
Food security
•
•
Funding to ensure continued food distribution to all PoC still a concern;
Food crisis looming due to continued violence, IDPs in M’baiki lack food and water.
Chad(8,000 refugees since Dec 2013)
•
•
•
More influx foreseen if security and humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate.
The refugees lack decent shelter, water and food.
Malnutrition rates in Abgadam camp is deteriorating ,23% GAM as of February due to the
increasing food insecurity.
Cameroon(44,252 refugees since March 2013)
•
•
More than 20% of all children arriving are malnourished
Many have walked over a month, hiding in bushes without food or clean water and over 80%
are arriving ill (malaria, URTI, diarrhea). 16 have died in January and February including 6
from SAM.
March 2014
Displacement
Registered Refugees/Asylum Seekers & IDPs
Country
Refugees / Asylum
Seekers
IDPs
Burundi
50,641
78,948
CAR
20,336
206,000
Djibouti
23,412
0
DRC
184,472
2,607,407
3,457
0
Ethiopia
409,017
0
Kenya
600,148
0
Rwanda
73,405
0
Somalia
11,270
1,122,559
South Sudan
223,687
401,433
Sudan
163,937
1,873,300
Tanzania
103,179
0
Uganda
215,857
0
TOTAL
2,082,818
6,289,647
Eritrea
Source: UNHCR
Stable numbers from January 2014
BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER...
March 2014
Nutrition
Building capacity for better food security programming
in emergency and rehabilitation contexts
Workshop Feedback to FSNWG
NUTRITION AND FOOD SECURITY PROGRAMMING
SEED SECURITY ASSESSMENT
ACCOUNTABILITY TO AFFECTED POPULATIONS
BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER...
Conceptual Framework of Malnutrition
Nutrition
Status /
Mortality
Individual
Level
Food security
Individual
Food
Intake
Exposure to Shocks and Hazards
March 2014
Nutrition
Context /
Framework
Household
Food Access
Health
Status /
Disease
Care / Health
Practices
Health and
Hygiene
Conditions
Household
Level
Livelihood
Outcomes
Food Availability /
Markets
Basic Services and
Infrastructure
Political, Economical,
Institutional,
Security, Social,
Cultural, Gender
Environment
Agro-Ecological
Conditions / climate
HH Food Production, Gifts,
Exchange, Cash, Earnings,
Loans, Savings, Transfers
Capital/Assets
Natural
Physical
Human
Economic
Social
Livelihood
Strategies
Community /
Household
Level
Livelihood
Assets
Nutrition
security
BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR
BETTER...
March 2014
Nutrition
Key messages
• Food Security and Nutrition are not sectors but common goals,
• Need for joint comprehensive food security, nutrition and vulnerability
assessments based on well defined and measurable criteria,
• Problem and solution trees (on malnutrition) can be used to clearly
define impact pathways
o
There is need for a clear understanding of the livelihoods before building the
problem and solution trees for malnutrition. (Need for a gender focus too)
• A precise M&E system, with clear food security and nutrition indicators,
help monitor and evaluate these pathways throughout project cycle,
• Coordination and advocacy should be enhanced at government and
policy levels to ensure sustainability ( e.g, SUN Movement),
March 2014
Prices
Food Prices Trends in the Region
Overall
•
Cereal prices remained generally stable or declined in February compared to
January 2014 due to improved internal availabilities (GIEWS, Food Price Monitor,
Mar 2014)
•
But white sorghum prices increased atypically across markets in Sudan and in
South Sudan (Fewsnet, Mar 2015)
Uganda
•
Retail Prices of maize grain declined by 9% in February compared to January 2014
across the country, and by 3% in Karamoja (WFP, Mar 2013);
•
Retail prices of sorghum fell by 4% compared, but increased by 12% in Karamoja
over the same period.
Kenya
•
Wholesale prices of maize in February
increased marginally in Eldoret and
Nairobi (+1.65% and +0.3%) compared to
Jan 2014 (WFP, Mar 2014).
•
However, these prices were significantly
higher than levels in Feb 2013 (by 11%
in Eldoret, 6% in Kisumu and 8% in
Nairobi) (WFP, Mar 2014).
March 2014
Prices
Ethiopia
•
Maize prices remained stable following a
favourable Meher harvest (WFP, Mar 2014).
•
But wholesale prices of Teff in Addis
increased by 4% due to growing export and
increased domestic demand (WFP, Mar
2014).
•
Meanwhile there were month-to-month
price increases for the main staples across
markets in southern, central and eastern
Oromia, SNNPR and Tigray
Somalia
CPI Monthly trends (CPI March 2007=100) – FSNAU, Feb
2014
•
Local grain prices increased in February due
to reduced stock levels following below
normal Deyr 2013/2014 production in
southern regions (FSNAU, Feb 2014);
•
But prices of maize and sorghum
considerably above Feb 2013 levels (GIEWS,
March 2014).
•
Prices of imported commodities (rice, sugar,
vegetable oil & wheat flour) continued
declining on monthly and annual basis
(FSNAU, Feb 2014).
March 2014
Response
Analysis
Regional Seasonal Calendar
Note: This calendar is for illustrations only as it is not yet
updated to reflect current changes
Source: http://www.disasterriskreduction.net/east-central-africa/fsnwg
March 2014
Response
Analysis
Assessment to determine current situation &
forecast for the next season - ASAL Alliance
Current situation Feb/Mar 2014
Hazards
•
•
•
•
•
Insecurities/devolution
Rain delayed/early cessation
Longer/hotter dry season
Southern Turk. - abnormal migration
Locust (north-east areas)
Impact
With typical levels of food aid – all wealth
groups in all LZ will remain in IPC phase 2
(stressed)
• KAP – irrigation not working
• TBP – very poor - dependent on aid
(42%) & food pipeline;
• Family splitting
• Levels of current cash transfer are
adequate (around Ksh1200 per month)
March 2014
Response
Analysis
Predictive analysis:
Next 6 months if LR fail - Impact on TCP & TBP
•
•
•
With typical levels of food/cash aid, the poorer groups are stressed but cope by
expanding on bush products & labour by 5-10%.
Interestingly the better-off groups will have small threshold deficits SD 4% and LD 15%
as they receive less aid and are more affected by drought
In the absence of food/cash transfers, the better-off groups cash equivalents to cover
deficits is around Ksh 4-5,000 per month
March 2014
Response
Analysis
Response Options (Pros & Cons Analysis)
Response Option
Approp. for
expected
risk level
Relevance
to devel’p
pathway
Impacts on
other sectors
Cash transfer - Scale up of HSNP
cash requirements to fill deficit
gap for all wealth groups
Positive
Negative
Positive
Food Aid - Advanced information
on WFP delivery plan for GFD
Neutral
Negative? Negative
School lunches/milk
Positive
Positive
Positive
Water trucking
Neutral
Negative
Negative
Water surge at strategic water
points
Positive
Positive
Positive
Public works (short-term job
creation)
Positive
Neutral
Positive
Paid skills training
Positive
Positive
Positive
Health surge
Positive
Positive
Positive
Livestock trade
Neutral
Positive
Positive?
Micro-finance
Neutral
Positive
Positive
March 2014
Response
Analysis
Longer-term considerations & advocacy
Longer-term options/objectives
Support NDMA to do better seasonal predictive analysis to improve early
response
Support County Government in planning for urbanization
Infra-structure – roads & irrigation schemes
Addressing environmental impacts of firewood and charcoal
Mapping of appropriate water sources and maintenance needs – links to
livelihoods & migration routes
Education for employment opportunities
Job creation/engagement with private sector
ADVOCACY ACTIONS
1)
2)
3)
4)
Engagement with County Government, links with contingency plans
De-block markets
De-block migration routes
The role of food aid with functioning markets
March 2014
Technology
What are cereal postharvest losses ?
Agents of postharvest grain loss
Insects
Moulds
Rodents
March 2014
Response
Technology
Analysis
What are postharvest losses? cont’d
Weight loss
Quality loss
Health
and
nutritional
losses
Lost from the
PH chain
Not fit for
humans
to
consume
Lost opportunity
for sales in higher
value markets
The value of quality losses may be greater than weight losses
March 2014
Response
Technology
Analysis
Links in the postharvest chain considered by APHLIS
March 2014
Response
Technology
Analysis
What is APHLIS?
Data from published
and ‘grey’ literature
PHL profile figures
APHLIS algorithm
Maps
APHLIS cereal weight
loss estimates by
province
Seasonal factors
Tables
Annual data from
APHLIS network
March 2014
Response
Technology
Analysis
How is APHLIS used?
APHLIS offers the only overview of grain postharvest weight
losses and is used in support of –
 agricultural policy formulation
 identifying opportunities to improve value chains
 improving food security (cereal supply estimates)
 monitoring and evaluating loss reduction activities

providing recommendations on how to reduce weight and
quality losses
March 2014
Response
Technology
Analysis
Maps of % weight loss
March 2014
Response
Technology
Analysis
Maps of loss density
MT/km2
March 2014
Technology
Where next for APHLIS
1. Must seek sustainability as an established element of African agricultural
information systems
2. Must find better approaches to data gathering from the ground and
opportunities for automatic data gathering
3. Must continue to engage in research and to develop features that serve
the needs of loss reduction
4. Must continue to develop relationships with institutions that are actually
implementing loss reduction
http://www.aphlis.net/
March 2014
AOB
Technology & Innovation of FSNWG members work
Food Security Briefs
•
April
•
May
•
June
WFP
OXFAM
FEWSNET
Response Options Working group
•
Begin work in March
FAOs Co-Chair
•
Stephen McDowell will finish his work with FAO/FSNWG end of March
•
Paul Opio will assume FAO’s responsibilities as co-chair
March 2014
Upcoming Events
Next FSNWG Meeting:
ISS, Nairobi
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Early Warning Systems
South Sudan
CAR
Uganda (Karamoja)
March/April TBC
March/April TBC
April TBC
MAS
Meeting
25 March
Whose Resilience?
UNICEF – Situating Basic Services in the Resilience Discussion
Nairobi (Southern Sun)
21 March
March 2014
March Presentation
Seeing business opportunities where others don’t
Esther Muiruri [email protected]
General Manager Marketing-Agri Business, Equity Bank
There is enormous potential in rural areas – both for those currently
farming as well as the youth who will likely move on to different ventures.
We must only understand how to do business with them to unlock that
potential
FSNWG 2014/15 Whose Resilience?
•
•
•
•
Changing livelihoods – changes the pathways to “resilience”
Begin mapping future livelihoods and “life objectives/aspirations” – particularly with
youth
Understand how parents and children intend to realise (plans/strategies) their
“objectives/aspirations”
Traditional subsistence is giving to commercial production and urbanisation
o How can the transition to urbanisation/settlement occur successfully/safely
o How can people containing to live in rural areas do so with greater dignity,
security and success?

similar documents