Swain & Walsh - Southeast Florida Regional Climate Compact

Report
Integrated Approach to Quantifying
the Effects of Climate Change on
Water Resources and Coastal
Infrastructure in Urban Miami-Dade
County
Eric D. Swain, Ph.D.
US Geological Survey
Virginia Walsh, Ph.D., P.G.
Miami-Dade Water and Sewer Department
& Wellfields
Northwest
Wellfield
Miami Springs
Wellfields
West
Wellfield
& Wellfield
South West
Wellfield
Snapper Creek
Wellfield
& Wellfield
& Wellfield
& Wellfield
& Wellfield
Wellfields
& Wellfield
Miami-Dade
Water and
Sewer
Department
Water &
Wastewater
Treatment
Facilities
Miami-Dade County in Cooperation with
the US Geological Survey has one of the
most technically advanced monitoring
network for Salt Water Intrusion in the
World
Climate change and SLR
assessment is now a critical
component of Water and Sewer
Department (WASD) planning
CDWWTP Storm Tide Analysis
CDWWTP is in
Flood Zone AE (10)
Effective Water Treatment Plant operations require proper control of
flooding from both stormwater and tidal sources
1) background information on the site stormwater and
tidal conditions
2) projections of potential increases in sea levels
3) potential ranges of effects on the WTP stormwater
management system, and site grading
considerations and access
for proper operations.
S-21 salinity control structure
SLR based on USACE guidance document 50
year:
0.57, 1.05, 2.55 ft
Results: Designed at 9 ft NAVD
• Well above peak stage of C-1 Canal for a
100-year rainfall event at existing tide
levels and the high projections of SLR
http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20145162
http://pubs.usgs.gov/tm/6a50/
Average water-table
drawdown and
interface position
Increased sea level
Scenario 2
& Wellfields
Northwest
Wellfield
Miami Springs
Wellfields
West
Wellfield
& Wellfield
South West
Wellfield
Snapper Creek
Wellfield
& Wellfield
& Wellfield
& Wellfield
& Wellfield
Wellfields
& Wellfield
Miami-Dade
Water and
Sewer
Department
Water &
Wastewater
Treatment
Facilities
Extensive instrumentation in wellfield:
Groundwater levels at all depths
Pressure in production wells
Temperature and flow data in wells and canal
Evapotranspiration, precipitation and atmospheric gas data
Summary of Wellfield Optimization,
Drainage, and Storm Surge Components
of Integrated Proposal
Optimize wellfield operations based on
environmental and operational criteria,
including potential future scenarios
Delineate drainage structure characteristics
that affect rainfall-runoff process
Determine potential effects of storm events
and storm surge on coastal canals and county
facilities
SLOSH
D ra in ag e S tru c tu re /A re a H y d ro lo g y D ata
B IS E C T S L R an d S to rm M o d el
M u ltiv aria te A n a ly s is
S M H S m a ll-S ca le M o d el
D e lin e a te R u n o ff/D ra in a g e
W e llfield O p tim iz a tio n U n d er C lim a te Va riab ility
D e te rm in e E ffec t o f S L R a n d S to rm S u rg e
R e p re se n t P o te n tia l S M H W e llfie ld E ffe c ts
Numerical Tools
• UMD model with SWR package canal and control
structure operations and groundwater
• BISECT model with SWIFT2D hydrodynamic coastal
flow and groundwater
• South Miami Heights smaller-scale model with URO
surface-drainage and wellfield effects
• SLOSH models of storm surge dynamics but no
groundwater
• GWM Groundwater Management Process solves
several types of groundwater management
formulations to optimize stresses such as wells.
Task 1: Data Collection
• Suite of measurements to define hydrology of
South Miami Heights area (see main
description)
• Drainage data collected including depths in
drainage structures, isotope and VOC data,
rainfall, and flows in canals
• Provides necessary information for small-scale
model develpement
With the study of hydrology for the planned South Miami
Heights Wellfield, investigating the runoff and stormwater
drainage process involves much of the same field data and
computer modeling
The drainage system predominantly involves on-site
drainage with some connectivity to the canal system
Synoptic measurement of water levels in catch basins will be
made periodically, after storm events and subsequent periods.
Water samples will also be collected for isotope, VOC, and
pesticide analysis.
Resources are conserved by combining the drainage
information with the monitoring of canal flows and
groundwater levels to support the numerical model of
the drainage and groundwater flow
evapotranspiration
rainfall
surface water
control structure
direct
runoff
retention
pond
control structure
Impervious
Area
seepage
to canals
culvert
infiltration
The numerical model will utilize the MODFLOW groundwater
code and the Urban RunOff (URO) package to represent the
system. It serves the purpose of representing the system for both
the potential for wellfield withdrawals and delineating the
rainfall-runoff-drainage process.
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An additional approach will use multivariate analysis to
parameterize the drainage process for general application.
Products: Drainage Study
Monitoring results and information that can be used to evaluate the current drainage scheme in the study area and
develop drainage criteria.
•
A small-scale numerical model to represent drainage in the study area and test proposed modifications to the system
•
A statistically-derived rainfall-runoff formulation that can be applied to different drainage basins to make stand-alone
computation or utilized in a larger-scale hydrologic model
•
Better-informed rainfall-runoff representations in hydrologic models of South Florida areas and higher confidence in
simulations of storm effects.
•
USGS Scientific-Investigations Report documenting the integration of the field data, statistical analyses, and numerical
modeling along with a complete description of the developed rainfall-runoff formulation.
•
Task 2: Local-scale model of
drainage/recharge in South Miami
Heights area
• MODFLOW-based groundwater model with
Urban RunOff (URO) module to represent
drainage
• Integrates drainage data and other hydrology
• Simulating the localized effects of storm
events
• Tool to represent operations of future
wellfield and effects
Task 3: County-scale well field
optimization using existing integrated
County model
• Use of operating rules for canal-control
structures
• Utilizing GWM to optimize wet-season
ground-water withdrawals for ASR under
varied climatic conditions
• Representation of storm impact effects during
optimization
Task 4: Development of storm surge
model using BISECT and SLOSH
• Current hydrodynamic representations of
storm surge in BISECT can use SLOSHgenerated surge-wave momentum
• BISECT simulation determines long-term
impact on surface-water and groundwater
salinity
• Combination of SWR for the canal effects and
SWIFT2D for the overland hydrodynamics of
the storm surge
• Windfield, storm surge, and rain from day of
Great Miami Hurricane applied to September
18, 1996
• Comparison of hydrologic effects made to
Hindcast simulated Great Miami Hurricane
• 1926 simulation with Great Miami Hurricane
repeated with 1996 sea levels
S a lin ity in P S U
G re a t M ia m i H u rrica n e in 1 9 2 6
G re a t M ia m i H u rrica n e in 1 9 9 6
G re a t M ia m i H u rrica n e in 1 9 2 6 w ith M o d e rn S L
Salinity and inundations before and after hurricane
Inundation increase for storm in 1926 is
24,374 acres
Inundation increase for storm in 1996 is
20,609 acres
However, the 1996 simulation started with
4522 acres more inundated than the 1926
simulation and ended with 757 more acres
inundation
UTM Easting, in meters
480000
500000
520000
540000
560000
580000
2860000
30
2840000
25
20
15
10
2820000
5
0
2800000
2780000
1926
1996
Difference in salinity induced by hurricane
The recent storm with higher sea level brought more
salinity on the eastern side
Change in salinity, PSU
UTM Northing, in meters
35

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