TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN BANKING UNION: KEY CHALLENGES AND IMPLICATIONS December 2014 Angelo Federico Arcelli Partner, Oliver Wyman FINANCIAL SERVICES © Oliver Wyman CONFIDENTIALITY Our clients’ industries are extremely competitive. The confidentiality of companies’ plans and data is obviously critical. Oliver Wyman will protect the confidentiality of all such client information. Similarly, management consulting is a competitive business. We view our approaches and insights as proprietary and therefore look to our clients to protect ’s interests in our proposals, presentations, methodologies and analytical techniques. Under no circumstances should this material be shared with any third party without the written consent of Oliver Wyman. Copyright © Oliver Wyman Following the CA, prudential supervision responsibilities will be transferred to the ECB and resolution responsibilities to the SRB Q4 2014 Comprehensive Assessment results and follow-up Entry in force of Single Supervisory Mechanism Entry in force of Single Resolution Mechanism © Oliver Wyman 1H 2015 2H 2015 26 Oct 9 Nov May 2015 August 2015 Results publication Banks to present capital plans to ECB 6 months timeline to cover capital shortfall from AQR or baseline scenario 9 months timeline to cover capital shortfall from adverse scenario 4 November ECB assumes its new prudential supervision responsibilities 1st January 2015 1st January 2016 Entry in force of the Single resolution mechanism: Single Resolution Board becomes responsible for SSM Banks resolution planning and managing the resolution of institutions in serious difficulties Entry in force of Single Resolution Fund that will pool resolution funds of single countries and provide funding to enable the bank to continue operating while it is being restructured 2 The ECB supervises more assets and more global systemically important institutions than any other regulator Bank Assets under supervision, € TN Eurozone Eurozone (ECB) (ECB) 25.1 China China (CBRC) (CBRC) US US (FED,FDIC,...) FDIC,...) (FED, UKUK (PRA) (PRA) Japan Japan (FSA) (FSA) 4.5 9 2 13.2 8 10.7 4 9.3 3 6.4 Direct supervision # of G-SIFI 1 Details on institutions supervised by ECB • Direct supervision of: – 120 Banking Groups2 – Located in 19 countries – Corresponding to 1,258 Legal Entities – some of which located outside of the Eurozone • Through the indirect supervision mechanism, the ECB supervises additional 3,500 institutions Indirect supervision Source: ECB; EBA credit register; 1. Global systemically important financial institutions as per FSB definition; 2. ECB direct supervision perimeter does not match exactly with the preliminary institutions selection subject to Comprehensive assessment © Oliver Wyman 3 We expect three forms of response to the Comprehensive Assessment from the Financial Services industry 1 2 3 © Oliver Wyman Strategic and tactical reshaping • Capital raising as a result of both the CA and other concurrent regulatory developments (eligibility of capital instruments for fully loaded Basel III capital ratios) • Consolidation and divestments, especially in the most affected countries • Recognition of the results of CA in underwriting standards, provisioning, pricing (assets and liabilities) and capital allocation Capabilities upgrade • Scenario planning and enhanced stress testing capabilities • RWA calculation upgrades • NPL management • Upgrade to data infrastructure and management Regulatory interface • SSM – banks will need to respond to the different (and in many cases more onerous) demands of the joint supervisory team • National regulators – creation of two-layered regulatory system likely to increase regulatory focus on topics such as conduct risk 4 QUALIFICATIONS, ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS This report is for the exclusive use of the client named herein. 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