Population Dynamics and Food Security: Perspectives on

Report
Population Dynamics and Food Security:
Perspectives on Sustainable Development in
Bangladesh
A K M Nurun Nabi, PhD
Professor and Project Director
Department of Population Sciences
University of Dhaka
[email protected]
1
Most Populous Countries with Density, 2010 & 2050
2010
Country
2050
Population
(millions)
Population
Density/Sq. Km.
Country
Population
(millions)
China
1,338
140
India
1,748
India
1,189
362
China
1,437
USA
310
32
Indonesia
235
Brazil
USA
423
124
Pakistan
335
193
23
Nigeria
326
Pakistan
185
232
Indonesia
309
Nigeria
158
171
Bangladesh
226
Bangladesh
150
964
Brazil
215
Russia
142
8
Ethiopia
174
Japan
127
337
Congo. Demo. Rep.
166
Source: PRB, 2010 World Population Data Sheet, BBS 2011, and Mabud 2009
Bangladesh Population Outlook
Bangladesh, one of the largest delta in the world, has a
population size of about 150 million in an area of 147,570
sq. km.
Close to 1000 people live in one square kilometer area.
Each year, the population increases by 1.8 to 2.0 million.
The population is likely to grow up to 226 million around
2050.
The population will stabilize at 250 million by 2081, even if
replacement level fertility is achieved by the year 2015.
It will happen due to the population momentum inherent
3
in the young age structure.
Maternal and Child Health
Under 5 mortality : 65/1000 live Birth
Infant Mortality
: 52/1000 live Birth
Neonatal mortality : 37/1000 live Birth
Deaths per 1,000 live-births
160
140
120
100
80
12-59 months
1-11 months
60
40
-2.6% per year
0-28 days
20
39%
42%
45%
47%
0
1989-93
1992-6 1995-9
1999-2003
57%
2002-6
Source: Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys, 1993-4, 1996-7, 1999-2000, 2004, 2007
Urbanization
National & urban population growth in Bangladesh 1901-2008
Census Year
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2008
National
Population
(million)
Growth
Rates
28.93
31.56
33.25
53.60
42.00
44.17
55.22
76.40
89.91
111.46
130.03
144.66
0.87
0.52
0.68
1.65
0.50
2.23
2.50
2.33
2.15
1.54
1.32
Number
Percent
Annual
Growth
Rate
0.70
0.81
0.88
1.07
1.54
1.82
2.64
6.27
13.23
20.87
28.61
36.31
2.43
2.55
2.64
3.02
3.66
4.33
5.19
8.78
15.18
19.63
23.10
25.10
1.39
0.85
2.00
3.59
1.69
3.72
6.66
10.66
4.56
3.15
6
3.37
Urban Population
Dhaka Compared to Other Urban
Agglomerations in 2010 & 2025
Rank
Agglomeration
2010
Population
Rank Agglomeration
2025
Population
1.
Tokyo
36.7
1.
Tokyo
37.1
2.
Delhi
22.2
2.
Delhi
28.6
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Sao Paulo
Mumbai
Mexico City
New York
Shanghai
Kolkata
Dhaka
Karachi
20.3
20.0
19.5
19.4
16.6
15.6
14.6
13.1
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Mumbai
Sao Paulo
Dhaka
Mexico City
New York
Kolkata
Shanghai
Karachi
25.8
21.7
20.9
20.7
20.6
20.1
20.0
18.7
7
Non-Slum and Slum Population by Major
City Corporations
City
corporation
Total
2001 Estimated
Area in Population
2005
sq. km (in millions) Population
(millions)
Metropolitan 306.00
Area (DMA)
Chittagong 177.39
Estimated Estimated
Slum
2005 Slum 2005 non- population as
Population
slum percentages
(millions) population
of total
(millions)
population
6.55
9.14
3.14
6.00
37.44
3.02
4.13
1.47
2.67
35.45
Khulna
47.52
0.73
0 .97
0.19
0.78
19.49
Rajshahi
51.29
0.37
0.49
0.17
0.32
33.87
Sylhet
27.50
0.27
0.37
0.10
0.27
26.73
Barisal
51.04
0.27
0.37
0.11
0.26
30.05
Total 660.74
11.21
15.46
5.16
10.29
35.24
8
Trends in total fertility rate
6.3
5.1
4.3
3.4
1975
BFS
1989
BFS
1991
CPS
3.3
1993-94 1996-97
BDHS BDHS
3.3
19992000
BDHS
3.0
2004
BDHS
2.7
2007
BDHS
Estimated Number of
Women of Reproductive Age (million)
60
50
44.8
47.7
49.4
2020
2025
40.8
40
35.8
31.8
30
20
10
0
2001
2005
2010
2015
Contribution of Adolescent Fertility
Year
Age specific
fertility rate
TFR
Contribution to
TFR (%)
1991
179
4.3
20.8
1994
140
3.4
20.6
1997
147
3.3
22.3
2000
144
3.3
21.8
2004
135
3.0
22.5
2007
126
2.7
23.3
Female Median Age at Marriage
18
16
14
14.2
15
14.8
15.3
2000
2004
2007
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1997
Source: BDHS 1997, 2000, 2004, 2007
The demographic structure of Bangladesh population
suggests that its population will continue to grow for
decades to come due to the population momentum
inherent in the young age structure, even if replacement
level fertility is achieved by the year 2015.
However, this young population is a blessing in the sense
that it implies strength, energy, vigor, pool of work force
and a full potential for future leadership. For Bangladesh,
this is a demographic bonus.
This demographic bonus could bring a huge dividend, if
this raw capital is converted into circulatory capital. This
window of opportunity opens for a population only once.
If we fail to grab this opportunity immediately, this young
population could create a disastrous hazard for the nation.
Age Structure: Young and Old
Broad Age Groups
Year
0-14 Yrs. (%)
15-59 Yrs. (%)
60+ Yrs. (%)
1911
42.3
53.3
4.4
1921
42.3
53.6
4.1
1931
41.9
54.9
3.2
1941
41.4
55.1
3.5
1951
42.2
53.5
4.4
1961
46.0
48.8
5.2
1974
48.0
46.3
5.7
1981
46.7
47.8
5.5
1991
45.1
49.5
5.4
2001
39.4
54.9
5.7
2005
37.9
55.9
6.2
Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 1994 and 1999 and 2006
14
Ageing Situation in Bangladesh
Year
Total Population
(in million)
Population (60+)
% of the
total
2001
130.02
7.97
6.0
2006
141.80
8.49
6.1
2011
151.41
9.77
6.5
2016
160.99
11.32
7.0
2021
171.71
14.10
8.2
2026
182.24
18.07
9.9
2031
191.61
22.15
11.6
2036
199.52
27.34
13.7
2041
206.46
31.89
15.4
2046
212.85
36.93
17.4
2051
218.64
44.10
20.2
60+ age group will exceed 0-14 age group in 2046
Distribution of Population by Age and Demographic Window of
Opportunity in Bangladesh, 2005-2050
17
Projected Supply of Labour Force in Bangladesh, 2001-2051
Source: Data analysis
18
Projected Growth of GDP per Capita in Bangladesh,
2001-2051
19
Food Consumption and Nutrition
Malnutrition – a serious public health & socio-economic
development problem.
About 35% and 21% women suffer from CED (BMI <18.5)
in rural and urban areas respectively.
36 % of children are underweight (low weight-for-age).
12 % are severely underweight.
Percentage of underweight children increases sharply
with age and peaks at 47% among children aged 36-47.
Birth weight is very low (30%).
Among U-5 children 36% are stunted.
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21
Food Security
Food Security refers to accessibility and availability of
foods by all groups of people all over the year in a
country.
Food and agriculture in Bangladesh:
A success story
Bangladesh has increased its food grain production
substantially since its independence. From 11.8 million
metric tons in 1974 to 34.5 million metric tons in 2011.
22
Total foodgrain production in the FY2010-11
34.5 million metric tons (mmt) in which the contributions
of aus, aman, boro and wheat were 2.13 mmt, 12.79 mmt,
18.6 and 0.97 mmt respectively.
Foodgrain production target for FY2011-12
35.73 mmt which is 3.56% higher than last year's actual
production.
Total foodgrain import in the FY2010-11
5.31 mmt of which 1.56 mmt was rice and 3.75mmt
wheat.
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Even though Bangladesh is now a self-sufficient in rice
production, food security remains an illusive goal.
Agriculture provides jobs for 80% of the total population
but contributes to only 22% of the gross domestic product.
Only 37% of Bangladesh’s total area is arable land but
natural disasters can affect 30% of this land.
30% of the population consumes fewer than 1800 kcal per
day.
Women eat last and eat less. They are the most
malnourished group in Bangladesh.
The average Bangladeshi diet lacks diversification with 75
percent of calories consumed coming from rice. 24
A key uncertainty for the hunger situation in Bangladesh is
the impact of the latest round of food price increases
By early 2011 the cost of a standard bucket of food had
risen by 36 percent in 12 months, with the price of rice
edging ahead of its 2008 peaks.
Although importing only about 5 percent of its total need,
the exposure to world markets forces up local prices,
disproportionately affecting poor household which spend
the majority of their incomes on food.
Only one percent of the country’s farms comprise more
than 3 hectares.
Most of the poverty and hunger in Bangladesh is found on
the 86 percent of farms which are less than one hectare.
25
Agriculture engages 65% of the workforce, many of whom
own no land.
Furthermore, 1 percent of cultivable land is lost each year
to encroachment of urban settlements, industry and
infrastructure - pressures which are unlikely to diminish.
Food grain production in Bangladesh has more than
trebled over the last 30-40 years but soil quality has been
degraded and groundwater resources depleted.
26
Despite significant achievements in poverty reduction,
Bangladesh faces considerable challenges:
• pockets of extreme poverty;
• incidence of malnutrition is the highest in the world;
• the country is most at risk from natural shocks and
highly vulnerable to forecast climate change patterns;
and
• large areas with unfavorable agricultural
environments (tidal surge prone [2 million ha], floodprone [0.75 million ha] and drought prone [1.3
million ha]).
• Moreover, there exists a strong and durable interface
between chronic poverty/food insecurity and
unfavourable agricultural environments.
27
Women and Decision Making
Women still lag a lot behind men in educational
attainment, literacy, employment, earnings and control
over cash, freedom of movement, autonomy and
status. They lack full participation and partnership in
productive and reproductive lives.
Women in Bangladesh have little say over household
decision-making. When it comes to making
independent decisions on matters other than daily
household purchases, things are even worse.
While only one-third currently women decide
independently on daily household purchases, only 9 to
19% make independent decisions on other matters.
Climate Change
The growing evidence on climate change suggests that
Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, resulting from the
cumulative action of developed and emerging economies,
would have serious deleterious effects in near future,
unless effectively contained.
It is predicted that Bangladesh will be adversely affected
by climate change in the form of melting of Himalayan
glaciers, global warmings and rising sea level, intensified
natural calamities, and greater water scarcity leading to
loss of livelihood, rising unemployment and poverty.
Furthermore, a rise in the sea level, leading to coastal,
submergence (i.e. 17 % of Bangladesh) would cause largescale displacement of people.
What Next?
A few of the challenges are presented above as food for
thought for all of us.
To face the population challenges, we need to take the
population issue as a central point for national
development.
On the backdrop of the global canvas of 7 billion people,
what prognosis could be suggested for Bangladesh to meet
the need for people’s welfare?
For now, the transition from basic traditional subsistence
food consumption to modern non-food consumption
through rapid reduction of poverty is one precondition for
appropriate national development strategy for population
management and planning.
Bangladesh has made significant progress in increasing
agricultural productivity and output. To translate these
achievements into higher food security, a more strategic
multi-sectoral approach is needed.
To improve the availability of food, investments are
needed to:
intensify and diversify food production and increase its
sustainability;
support adaptation to climate change; and
develop agricultural marketing and infrastructure.
31
Specific entry points for action include:
• increasing research and extension capacities, with
special attention to the development of new rice and
non-rice varieties;
• developing programmes on crop diversification and
increasing funding to livestock and fisheries sectors;
• facilitating access to agricultural inputs and credit
and ensuring that fertilisers and pesticides are used
sustainably; and
• protecting producers’ incentives by strengthening
procurement programmes.
• Increasing the number of people who can access
sufficient and nutritious food.
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• Investments to eradicate income poverty, with a
particular emphasis on the most vulnerable groups,
and improved risk management, will help increase
and stabilize access to food.
• Promoting income generation in rural areas by
increasing access to markets, strengthening women’s
access to productive assets, increasing valueaddition, paying special attention to the
development of micro-enterprises and reforming
technical and vocational training to be more gender
sensitive.
• In addition, safety net programs need to be
expanded to the landless, marginal farmers and food
insecure people in urban and disaster-prone areas.
33
Thank You
34

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