Template - Haselton Baker Risk Group

Report
1
Overview of Commercial Software
Development Plans Related to the
FEMA P-58 Damage/Loss
Methodology
Curt B. Haselton, PhD, PE
CSU, Chico
Jack W. Baker, PhD
Stanford University
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2
Overview of FEMA P-58
 P-58 is a performance prediction methodology based on a
10-year FEMA study (enabled by much previous research).
 P-58 is an alternative to other experience-based or
judgment-based methods (e.g. HAZUS, ATC-13, etc.).
 P-58 is tailored to building-specific analysis (as opposed to
regional/portfolio analyses).
 ATC is currently working on another 5-year effort to
improving the methodology, implementation, ease of use.
 The REDi Rating System (this afternoon) uses a modified
version of FEMA P-58 as part of the process.
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Overview of FEMA P-58
 FEMA P-58 Output Results:
• Losses ($) [USRC: Repair Cost Rating]
• Fatalities & injuries [USRC: Safety Rating]
• Repair time & red tagging [USRC: Recovery
Time Rating (some translation required)]
 Types of analysis results:
• Intensity-based (e.g. DBE) [USRC Ratings]
• Time-based (annualized values)
• Scenario-based (for a given event)
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FEMA P-58: Output Examples
 Sample results (12-story RC frame):
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FEMA P-58: Output Examples
 Dig as deep as you like…
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FEMA P-58: Methodology
 Hazard and Ground Motions
•
Soil and hazard curve
•
Ground motions (if needed)
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FEMA P-58: Methodology
 Hazard and Ground Motions
•
Soil and hazard curve
•
Ground motions (if needed)
 Structural Responses
•
Option #1: Response-history
•
Option #2: Simplified method
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FEMA P-58: Methodology
 Hazard and Ground Motions
•
Soil and hazard curve
•
Ground motions (if needed)
 Structural Responses
•
Option #1: Response-history
•
Option #2: Simplified method
 Damage Prediction
•
Contents (str. and non-str.)
•
Fragility curves
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9
FEMA P-58: Methodology
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FEMA P-58: Methodology
 Hazard and Ground Motions
•
Soil and hazard curve
•
Ground motions (if needed)
 Structural Responses
•
Option #1: Response-history
•
Option #2: Simplified method
 Damage Prediction
•
Contents (str. and non-str.)
•
Fragility curves
 Loss Estimation (loss curves)
and other consequences
U.S. Resiliency Council
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FEMA P-58: Methodology
 Hazard and Ground Motions
•
Soil and hazard curve
•
Ground motions (if needed)
 Structural Responses
•
Option #1: Response-history
•
Option #2: Simplified method
 Damage Prediction
•
Contents (str. and non-str.)
•
Fragility curves
 Loss Estimation (loss curves)
and other consequences
Monte Carlo
Simulation used
(“roll dice” thousands of
times).
Each “dice roll” gives a
single observation of
losses (and other
consequences).
Putting all of the “dice
rolls” together gives solid
statistical information on
performance.
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FEMA P-58: Benefits
 Objective process based on data and research.
 Quantitative performance information:
•
Dig as deep as you like.
•
Tools to communicate with owners.
•
Solid statistical basis.
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13
FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”
 Hazard and Ground Motions
•
Soil and hazard curve
•
Ground motions (if needed)
I need to hire a
geotech to do this…?
 Structural Responses
•
Option #1: Response-history
•
Option #2: Simplified method
 Damage Prediction
•
Contents (str. and non-str.)
•
Fragility curves
 Loss Estimation (loss curves)
and other consequences
I need to do a
response-history
analysis…?
I need to count and enter
every foot of partition wall
and other contents…?
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FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”
 It may not be as hard to implement FEMA P-58
as some currently perceive it to be.
 The “What If” Question:
• What if we had a stream-lined FEMA P-58
analysis that could be done in hours rather
than days (and provide all of the same
benefits)?
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My Thinking Over Past Couple Years
 Most of the barrier to widespread use of FEMA P-58
are related to software and ease-of-use.
 FEMA and ATC have created a great methodology
but are not in the business of maintaining software.
 FEMA has funded additional ongoing development
and is currently working on both the methodology and
design aids (to improve ease of use, etc.).
 For our profession to move forward with use of FEMA
P-58 methods someone needs to step-up to provide
and maintain enabling software once FEMA/ATC are
done with Phase II work.
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My Thinking Over Past Couple Years
 In February, Jack Baker and I decided to work to fill
this needed role by:
a) Creating user-friendly software to implement P-58.
b) Maintaining software over time (fragilities, etc.).
c) Improving and extending the methodology in the
future after ATC/FEMA work is done
(improvements, comparative methods, etc.).
 Timing: Our timing lines up with the USRC work, so
we would like to help support the USRC process.
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Software Implementation of FEMA P-58
 Hazard and Ground Motions
•
Soil and hazard curve
•
Ground motions (if needed)
Soil and hazard
curves embedded.
 Structural Responses
•
Option #1: Response-history
•
Option #2: Simplified method
 Damage Prediction
•
Contents (str. and non-str.)
•
Fragility curves
Simplified method
embedded (only need
period, mode shape,
yield drift).
Structural and nonstructural contents
estimates and prepopulated.
 Loss Estimation
curves)
Two-level(loss
structure:
(1) Simple (basic
rating, prelim. design, PML)
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(2) Refine
and go
as deep
as you like (full new PBD).
18
Status and Timeline
 Status and Timeline:
• February: Started.
• April: Secured a National Science Foundation
research commercialization grant to help fund.
• Currently: In active development (Jack, me, others).
• Fall: Beta release expected this fall.
 ATC/FEMA: Being done in coordination with ATC (so all
pulling in same direction) but not funded by ATC (because
needs to become a commercial tool to be sustainable).
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Draft SP3 Tool
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Next Steps
 We want to support and enable the USRC rating
system effort as best as possible.
 We are still in active development, so please:
• Let us know how we can tailor things to be
most useful to the USRC effort.
• Give us any other feedback/thoughts (we are all
ears!).
 E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
 Cell: (530) 514-8980
U.S. Resiliency Council
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