EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Report
36th Euroheat & Power Congress
27-28 May 2013, Vienna, Austria
Heat Roadmap Europe
Professor Henrik Lund
Aalborg University
Organised by
Pre-study 2
Heat Roadmap Europe
Aalborg University
David Connolly
Brian Vad Mathiesen
Poul Alberg Østergaard
Bernd Möller
Steffen Nielsen
Henrik Lund
Planenergi
Daniel Trier
Halmstad University
Urban Persson
Sven Werner
Ecofys Germany GmbH
Jan Grözinger
Thosmas Boersmans
Michelle Bosquet
Motivation
Consensus/general:
Energy Road Map 2050 (EU”Combined heat & power (CHP) and
district heating (DH) are important”
commission)
Road Map 2050 (McKinsey et.al)
. . . but fail to quantify to which extent
The energy report – 100%
these options can be used in the
renewable energy by 2050 (WWF)future energy system . . .
Energy Technology Perspectives
2010 (IEA)
The European Commission in the Energy Roadmap 2050 communication:
“An
analysis
of moreOutlook
ambitious energy
World
Energy
(IEA)efficiency measures and costoptimal policy is required. Energy efficiency has to follow its economic
Deciding
Future
– Energy
Policy
potential.
Thisthe
includes
questions
on to what
extent urban and spatial
planning
can contribute
Scenarios
to 2050to saving energy in the medium and long term;
how to find the cost-optimal policy choice between insulating buildings to
use less heating and cooling and systematically using the waste heat of
electricity generation in combined heat and power plants.”
Methodology
GIS Mapping
Energy System Modelling
District Heating
Demands
BAU
(References)
District Heating
Resources
District Heating
Alternatives
Indicate Costs
Results (PES,
CO2, Costs)
GIS based
information
Urban areas (Heating Demands)
Power and Heat Generation
Waste Management
Industrial waste heat potential
Geothermal heat
Solar Thermal
Energy System Analyses Model
W in d p ro d u c tio n E ltra 1 9 9 6 (2 0 4 2 M W h p r M W )
500
M W h /h
400
300
200
100
0
0
1098
2196
32 94
4392
5490
6 588
7686
8784
76 86
8 784
768 6
8784
H o u rs
W in d p ro d u c tio n E ltra 2 0 0 0 (2 0 8 3 M W h p r M W )
2 000
P V p ro d u c tio n S o l3 0 0 2 0 0 1
M W h /h
1 500
3 00
2 50
1 000
500
k W h /h
2 00
0
1 50
Electricity
storage
system
Import/
Export
1 098
fixed and
variable
0
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
Hydro water
Hydro
storage
Hydro
1 00
power50plant
0
0
3 29 4
439 2
65 88
W in d p ro d u c tio n E ltra 2 0 0 1 (1 9 6 4 M W h p r M W )
43 92
5 49 0
65 88
768 6
8 784
Cooling
demand
M W h/h
15 00
6
P V p ro d u c tio n S o l3 0 0 10
2 00
002
5
PP
4
5 00
3 00
3
2
2 50
1
2 00
0
CHP
0
1098
2196
1 50
3294
1 00
4392
5490
H o u rs
Heat
pump and
electric
6588
7686
boiler
Cooling
device
0
0
1098
2 196
329 4
4392
W a v e P o w0e r e s tim a te d y e a r 2 0 0 1
0
10 98
21 96
k W h /h p r. m w a v e fro n t
Boiler
3 29 4
6
5490
H o u rs
8784
Heat
demand
50
RES heat
549 0
Electricity
demand
Ho u rs
Ho u rs
W a v e P o w e r e s tim a te d y e a r 1 9 9 9
k W h /h
Fuel
21 96
3294
20 00
k W h / h p r . m w a v e fr o n t
RES
electricity
10 98
2196
43 92
5 49 0
Ho u rs
Heat
65 88
storage
768 6
8 784
5
Electrolyser
4
3
H2 storage
2
1
Transport
demand
Cars
0
0
1098
2196
3294
4392
5490
6588
7686
8784
Ho urs
Industry
Process
heat
demand
65 88
Step 1: (Energy Efficiency)
- Increasing DH to 30% then 50%
- Increasing CHP
- Using Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHP
Showing DH
benefits in 2 steps
Step 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources)
- Industrial waste heat
- Waste incineration
- Geothermal heat
- Large-scale Solar Thermal
Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by
the National Technical University in Athens
Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27:






Reference: Business-as-usual
CPI: Updated business-as-usual
EE
CCS
Nuclear
High RE
2030/2050 Modelling
EU CPI
PRIMES Data
2030 & 2050 Model
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Current Policy Initiatives (CPI)
District Heating
Alternatives
2010 = 12% DH
2030 = 30% DH
2050= 50% DH
Results
(PES, CO2, Costs)
HRE1 Conclusion:
50% DH and CHP
Decrease primary energy supply and
LESSfuels
FUEL and CO2
especially fossil
emissions
Decrease annual costs of energy in
LESS MONEY
Europe by approximately
€14 Billion
in 2050
Create additional
jobs over
MORE EU220,000
JOBS
the period 2013-2050
Further integration
MORE REof RES
Annual EU27 costs for heating buildings in 2010 to 2050
140
Cost and Jobs:
Annual costs [Billion €]
120
100
Annual investment costs
80
Fixed operation costs
60
CO2 emission costs
Marginal operation cost
40
Fuel
20
0
IEA
2010
EU CPI
HRE RE
EU CPI
2030
Saved fuel costs of annual approx.
30 Billion EUR in 2050
In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050
Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR
Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050:
8-9 million man-year in total
Approx. 220,000 jobs.
HRE RE
2050
Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by
Is districtTechnical
heating a goodUniversity
idea if we implement
a lot of energy
theHRE2:
National
in Athens
efficiency in the buildings?
Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27:






Reference: Business-as-usual
CPI: Updated business-as-usual
Energy Efficiency (EU-EE)
Carbon Capture & Storage
Nuclear
High Renewable Energy
Energy Modelling
EU-EE
PRIMES Data
2030 & 2050 Model
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Energy Efficiency (EE)
District Heating
Alternatives
2010 = 12% DH
2030 = 30% DH
2050= 50% DH
Results
(PES, CO2, Costs)
Key Measures in EU-EE Scenario
High renovation rates for existing buildings due to
better/more financing and planned obligations for public
buildings (more than 2% refurbishment per year)
Passive houses standards after 2020
Obligation of utilities to achieve energy savings in their
customers' energy use over 1.5% per year (up to 2020)
Strong minimum requirements for energy generation,
transmission and distribution including obligation that
existing energy generation installations are upgraded to
the
EU-EE Scenario
Heat Demand Concerns
Hot water demand
decreases by 50%
between 2010 and 2050
Specific Heat Demands
reduce by 70% between
2010 and 2050
EU-EE Scenario
63% Drop in Heat Demands
Cost B€300/year 2010-2050
Additional Cost of Energy Efficiency
Measures (€/kWh Saved)
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Heat Demand Reduction (%)
60%
70%
80%
HRE-EE Hot Water Growth = +16%
Residential and non-residential buildings is expected to grow by
32% and 42% respectively between 2015 and 2050
Population will grow by 3.2% between 2010 and 2050.
Individuals are likely to take more showers and baths in the future
than they do today.
People are not expected to live with one another as much in the
future.
At present, there are regions in Europe where the use of hot water
is limited due to technical and financial limitations.
HRE-EE Space Heating = -47%
Implementing District Heating
1. Individual boilers are replaced by district heating:
 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050
 Individual heat pumps are not replaced
2. Individual cooling units are replaced with district
cooling.
 10% in 2030 and 20% in 2050
 Natural cooling and absorption heat pumps are both used.
Heat Demand by Source
4,000
Heat Demands (TWh/year)
3,500
3,000
Geothermal
Heat Pumps
2,500
Direct Electricity
Solar
2,000
Biomass
1,500
Gas
Oil
1,000
Solids
District Heating
500
0
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
Implementing District Heating
3. New DH production facilities are constructed:
 CHP, boilers, heat pumps, and thermal storage.
4. Additional resources can now be utilised by the
district heating network:





Industrial surplus heat: 100 TWh/year
Direct geothermal heat: 100 TWh/year
Waste incineration: 150 TWh/year
Large-scale solar thermal: 100 TWh/year
Wind power for large-scale heat pumps: 65 TWh/year
District Heating Supply for Residential
and Services Buildings (TWh/year)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH Supply
1,800
1,600
1,400
Industry
Waste
Geothermal
Solar
Heat Pumps
Boiler
CHP
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
23
Results
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE
Primary Energy Supply & CO2
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Waste
RES
18,000
3,000
15,000
2,500
12,000
2,000
9,000
1,500
6,000
1,000
3,000
500
0
0
EU-EE
Brussels, Belgium
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
24
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (X, Mt/year)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh/year)
Nuclear
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE
Fossil Fuels
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Waste
18,000
RES
3,000
15,000
2,500
12,000
2,000
9,000
1,500
6,000
1,000
3,000
500
0
0
EU-EE
Brussels, Belgium
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
25
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (X, Mt/year)
Primary Energy Supply (TWh/year)
Nuclear
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE
Additional Resources
Heat Available from Unconventional
Resources due to District Heating*
(TWh/year)
Industry
Waste Incineration^
Geothermal
Large-Scale Solar
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
EU-EE
Brussels, Belgium
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
26
Total Costs for Heating and Cooling in
the Residential and Services Sectors
(B€/year)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE
Heat & Cooling Costs -15%
Energy Efficiency Investments
Cooling System Investments
Fuel
Heating System Investments
Centralised Electricity & Heat Plants
CO2
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Brussels, Belgium
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2030
EU-EE
HRE-EE
2050
27
Case Study: Århus
Legend
District heating area
Built up areas
Aarhus municipality
Conclusions
District heating is an attractive solution in areas
with a high heat density
District heating can be seen as an efficiency
measure similar to reductions in heat demand,
because it enables the use of fuels in a more
efficient way
Heat reductions in buildings can be combined with
district heating so that it is competitive with
individual solutions
Conclusions (1)
If we continue under a
business-as-usual scenario,
then district heating can:
 Reduce the PES
 Reduce the CO2 emissions
 Reduce the costs of the
energy system
 Use more renewable energy
Conclusions (2)
If we implement a lot of
energy efficiency
measures, then district
heating will:
Meet the same goals, ie:
 Utilise the same amount of
fossil fuels
 Enable the same CO2
emission reductions
 Cost approximately 10% less
How to get the report….
www.heatroadmap.eu

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