Final FSNWG Situation Analysis Outlook May 2014

May 2014
Food Security & Nutrition Working Group
Eastern and Central African Region
May 22, 2014
Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO
Situation Analysis & Outlook:
10:30 -11:30
Food security conditions, hotspots, prices,
climate, nutrition & refugees
Disaster Needs Analysis (DNA) – South Sudan
Highlights – and Implication on Food Security
Regional Highlights
May 2014
Current Conditions:
Many regions are in stressed condition and specific areas are under crisis or
emergency (CAR/DRC/South Sudan and part of Afar Region of Ethiopia). Some
areas are at risk of further deterioration (South Sudan, CAR, Sudan)
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
South Sudan IPC report May 2014
More than 3 m people are currently in need of urgent humanitarian
response (IPC 3 or higher in Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile). Large
portions of the population in conflict‐affected areas are in IPC 4.
Further deterioration and increase in the size of the food‐insecure
population are very likely, because of :
- impacts of continued conflict and ongoing displacement (over 1m
- significant numbers of people not able to prepare and plant their
land (displaced, limited agricultural inputs prepositioned or made
available by traders/agencies,…)
- constrained humanitarian access to IDPs (using host
communities’s resources)
- widespread market destruction/disruption (high dependence from
May to August)
- traditional lean season and rainy season that further limits access
and trade flows
- expectations for a poor 2014/2015 cropping season
- a sharp reduction in agricultural labor opportunities
- limited access to traditional coping strategies (fishing, hunting,
wild foods)
-(production of crude oil fell by nearly 30 % since the outbreak of
the conflict)
Risk of famine particularly in Mayendit, Koch, Panyijar, and Leer
Counties in Unity State and Ayod, Duk, Uror, and Nyirol counties in
Jonglei State.
The worst‐off areas of Upper Nile State are Baliet and Panyikang. If
the harvest is very poor and conflict continues, food security in
2015 may be as bad or worse than 2014.
Without urgent action, famine is possible in localized sub‐county of Jonglei
and Unity States during the coming 4 months
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Sudan FEWSNET Avril 2014, OCHA
An estimated 4.5 m people face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or above food
insecurity levels. The food insecure population has increased
by 38 % since January.
Widespread displacement following renewed conflict in Darfur and
ongoing conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states
combined with reduced food availability after poor harvests has
resulted in an early onset of the lean season in April. Food
insecurity is expected to deteriorate in many areas of the
Insecurity and logistical constraints associated with the rainy season will
continue to disrupt humanitarian assistance and trade flows to
and within South Kordofan, Darfur, and Blue Nile states.
IDPs in the SPLM-N-controlled areas of South Kordofan are the most
acutely food insecure (IPC Phase 4), namely because of
restricted trade flow and lack of access by humanitarian
IDPs in SPLM-N-controlled areas of Blue Nile State, new IDPs in
Darfur, returnees/refugees in Abeyi, and South Sudanese
refugees in White Nile, South Kordofan and West Kordofan
states face Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
The size of the food insecure pop. is expected to peak at nearly 5 m
people in June 2014, concentrated in Darfur, South Kordofan,
Blue Nile, Red Sea, Kassala, North Kordofan and White Nile
Conflict has disrupted financial systems and trade, the provision of
health services and interrupted seasonal livelihood activities in
Influx of refugees from South Sudan to Sudan continues. Currently,
there are 31,000 refugees in White Nile State, 15,000 in
Khartoum, and about 12,500 in South Kordofan.
Food insecurity worsens with record-high cereal prices and intensified
conflict that is likely to continue (Tribal clashes and between SAF and SPLM-N)
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Federal Government of Somalia troops, supported by the AMISOM,
have been advancing into Al Shabaab-controlled areas around
several major towns and villages in South-Central Somalia (Bakool,
Hiraan, Gedo, Bay, and Lower Shabelle Regions) since February.
Access to humanitarian interventions will likely be reduced from
current levels due to increased civil insecurity in most rural areas of
the South.
Recently intensified conflict in the Shabelle Valley will likely result in
reduced availability of agricultural labor opportunities followed by a
below average Gu harvest in June/July. Food security is likely to
deteriorate, reaching Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from July to September
Outside of Lower and Middle Shabelle, pastoral and agropastoral
areas in the South are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
857,000 people were projected to remain acutely food insecure
through June 2014 by FSNAU, FEWS NET and partners in January
2014. Between January and March during the Jilaal dry season, the
high temperatures resulted in water scarcity in some areas. Water
trucking continued into April, much later than usual. Pasture
conditions deteriorated.
In the North, water trucking was on-going through March in most
pastoral areas. Despite water shortages, rangeland conditions remain
adequate. In the central regions, poor pasture and water availability
were observed in the pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones.
Food security is deteriorating in the South due to intensified conflict
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
CAR IPC May 2014, FAO
Insecurity and tensions exacerbate food
insecurity particularly in the N-W Region of
the Country (IPC Phase 4).
Country facing acute and complex
emergency esp. in conflict affected areas.
Performance of most economic sectors
have declined since 2012 with implications
on income generation.
Food security situation has deteriorated
with the beginning of the lean season.
1.7M are in humanitarian phases (3&4),
they were 900 000 in those phases in
November 2013 the number of people
acutely food insecure has likely sharply
Access to food is curtailed by widespread
displacement, depletion of HH food stocks,
destruction of livelihoods & loss of
productive assets, inability to raise
income, rising food prices, market
disruption or limited access to markets.
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Uganda IPC April 2014, FEWSNET, FAO
Below-average rainfall since March has
exacerbated dry conditions across the
eastern part of the country. The lean
season started early in February instead
of March in the unimodal region of
Karamoja that will remain Stressed (IPC
Phase 2!).
While the onset of rains was timely, they
continued with below average cumulative
rainfall. Substantive rainfall deficits are
developing in the northeastern districts of
A reduction in trade volume exported to South
Sudan due to the conflict has moderated
supply shortfall.
Over 96,000 South Sudan refugees have arrived
into Northern Ugandan districts of Arua,
Adjumani and Kiryandongo since start of
the conflict (critical levels of GAM
among refugees).
Areas of concern :
1.Central Sorghum and Livestock livelihood
zone in Karamoja (estimated pop. of
824,104 persons).
2. Western mixed crop farming livelihood
zone in Karamoja (estimated pop. of
268,520 persons).
Karamoja food security further deteriorates as the lean season started
earlier following below average harvest from the last season.
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Djibouti FAO, IPC May 2014
Food security situation under crisis level (IPC
Phase 3) in pastoral livelihood zone.
IPC Phase 4 in the N E part of the Country where
poor food consumption score is more that 80%
and livestock is continue to decrease since 5
Reduced rations for severely food insecure HHs
since September 2013; effects of below average
Heys / Dadaa (Oct to Feb) rains;
Worsening livestock body condition and declining
availability of wild foods.
Emergency situation in North – East of the Country
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Due to the below average and erratic performance of the long
rains thus far, household food availability and access will
slightly improve through June, but it will deteriorate between
July and September, driven by increases in food prices during
the August to October lean season.
According to the KFSSG, the number of acutely food insecure
people increased from 0.8 million in August 2013 to 1.3 million
for the next six months ending. Over the same period, the
number of acutely food insecure people increased threefold in
agropastoral areas including in Baringo, West Pokot, and
Laikipia Counties. These areas depend on rainfed agricultural
production, and they had a much smaller harvest than normal.
The most severe acute food insecurity was found in the
pastoral areas in the Northwest, in central parts of Turkana,
and parts of Marsabit County, which were in Crisis a month ago
The amount of rainfall received so far was below average and
poorly distributed over space and time in Isiolo, Wajir,
Mandera, and Tana River Counties.
Recovery of pasture and browse is still slower, and in some
pockets, water points have not been adequately recharged.
About 1.3 million people remain acutely food insecure in the southeastern,
pastoral and coastal marginal agricultural areas.
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Rwanda FEWSNET April 2014
The long rainy (March-April-May) season started normally in early
March, but poorly-distributed seasonal rainfall since mid-March has
led to deteriorating ground conditions in southern and eastern parts
of the country, threatening crop development. Normal Season B
harvests in June/July.
The Eastern Congo-Nile Highland Subsistance Farming and the
Eastern Semi Arid and Eastern Agro-pastoral zones : 50 % belowaverage season A harvests for maize and beans in
January/February. In order to cope, poor households in these areas
will engage in irreversible coping strategies and face Stressed (IPC
Phase 2) food insecurity until the next harvests in June.
Food prices are atypically high during the current lean season, up
30 to 60 percent against the two-year average.
Household food stocks: Poor households across the country
experienced below-normal Season A harvests during December to
February, which did not replenish food stocks to normal levels.
Stressed food security outcomes during the peak of the lean season.
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Burundi IPC May 2014
From now through June, households in most livelihood zones will
experience stressed food security except the Plateaux Humides and
Depression de l’Est zones which are currently in crisis (IPC Phase 3)
food insecurity until Season B harvests in June.
Poor rainfall in the Dépression de l’Est zone caused Season A
production shortfalls which chronic and structural of high density
population are limiting food access in the Plateaux Humides zone. As
a result of more than 30 percent production deficit in this area,
households are unable to meet food needs from their own stocks.
Season B 2014 planting is nearly complete. Current rainfall ranges
between 10 and 25 percent above-average levels. Normal Season B
harvests are expected in June.
Tensions over 2015 election preparations continued. Risk of reviving ethnic
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Tanzania FEWSNET
The lean season has ended in the southern, central,
and western unimodal areas following green harvests
in March/April. Households continue to release stocks
from the 2013 production season, making maize,
beans, rice, and sorghum available on the market.
Green harvests of maize, beans, and banana, and
sweet and Irish potatoes are abundantly available in
markets, serving as substitutes for maize and other
grains and effectively helping drive down grain prices.
Ongoing rainfall in both bimodal and unimodal areas is
providing adequate moisture for pasture regeneration
and grazing and has recharged water points for
livestock. Milk for consumption and sales is adequately
available to households, and livestock migration is
declining as the needed resources are becoming
locally available in many areas.
Food security outcomes would change significantly if
the Masika rain stops in the bimodal areas before the
crops reach maturity, resulting in decreased availability
of labor opportunities and a reduced volume of the
Stable food prices across the Country ensure food access for poor
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
Ethiopia FEWSNET
Due to the below average October 2013 to January
2014 Meher harvest, poor and very poor households
will exhaust their stocks earlier than normal along
the Tekeze River in Amhara and Tigray Regions, in
eastern parts of Tigray Region, and in the lowlands
in East and West Hararghe Zone in Oromia Region.
Therefore, poor and very poor households will be in
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from April to June.
Belg-producing areas in North and South Wollo
Zones in eastern Amhara Region: Poor and very
poor households will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3)
through June 2014.
IPC Phase 4 in the Northern part of Afar.
Continued influx of South Sudanese refugees particularly in Gambella.
May 2014
Current Conditions – Regional Highlights
•Prices of staples were stable or lower in
February than in January.
•Conflict and displacement along the border
with CAR, and armed groups in the Kivu
region continue to be of concern & cause of
food insecurity
•Chronic food insecurity in some provinces
in the west
•Poor & borderline consumption common
among rural communities
•Food production in 2013 was at average
•# of people in acute food insecurity and
livelihood crisis (IPC phase 3 & 4) estimated
at 6.7M (Dec 2013)
•Nutrition crisis in the west in Mitwaba: lives
characterized by food distress (90.7% of
households affected by food insecurity) and
a nutritional emergency (21.6% of children 6
to 59 months prevalence of global acute
Conflicts a major driver of food insecurity in the country.
May 2014
March 2014
Across the region, the March rainfall
pattern was mostly favourable with
markedly above average rainfall in the
eastern half of Kenya, most of
Ethiopia and South Sudan and
southern Somalia.
In contrast, Somalia and SE Ethiopia,
in contrast, had a mostly drier than
average March, though deficits at this
time of the season are of no great
Western Kenya and parts of eastern
Uganda also had a less favourable
situation, but with fairly moderate
rainfall deficits.
Map shows total March 2014 rainfall as a percentage of the 20 year average.
March is the month when the “long rains” season broadly starts across East Africa;
the single rainfall season in South Sudan and Ethiopia (Meher) also start from
March onwards.
NOTE: since March rainfall on average is low, the percent of average can reach
very high values – this does not imply heavy rainfall amounts
May 2014
April 2014
The rainfall pattern in April was in
marked contrast with that of March.
Pronounced rainfall deficits are
noticeable, extending from Uganda to
NE Somalia, across western Kenya
and SE Ethiopia.
Worst affected areas are in western
Kenya (where some areas are as low
as 30% of average), Karamoja and
parts of Southern Ethiopia. Eastern
Equatoria state in South Sudan is also
part of this rainfall deficit pattern.
Somalia (except the south) and SE
Ethiopia have been under continuing
rainfall deficit since March.
The rest of South Sudan and NW
Ethiopia in contrast have been enjoying
consistently above average rainfall,
leading to an early start to the growing
Map shows total April 2014 rainfall as a percentage of the 20 year
April is the month with the largest contribution to the “long rains” season
(Kenya, Somalia, parts of Uganda and SE Ethiopia)
In South Sudan (except for the easternmost areas) and western Ethiopia,
it is the month when the rainfall season (taking place within March to
November) becomes better established
May 2014
South Sudan and NW Ethiopia: these regions should be
enjoying an early start to the agricultural season, with
land preparation and sowing ahead of normal. Obviously,
in conflict areas of SSD, ability of farmers to benefit from
the early rainfall may be more limited; elsewhere,
perspectives are so far fairly favourable, less so in
Eastern Equatoria (but it’s early days here).
Impacts in agricultural areas of eastern Uganda and
western Kenya should have been felt – where planting
had not yet taking place, delays will be inevitable.
Considering the March rainfall pattern, it is likely that
early planting might have taken place in which case the
strength of the impacts will depend on the development
stage of the crop – seedling stage might require replanting.
Pastoral areas in Turkana and Karamoja may be facing
reduced pasture and water resources. This will also be
the case in SE Ethiopia and Somalia (away from the
south) – here, where crops are grown, significant delays
in agricultural activities can be expected.
A lot will depend on how the rainfall evolves during May.
Continuation of the drier than average pattern will
magnify the current impacts to far more serious levels.
On going monitoring is required and is in place.
May 2014
7) Expected seasonality over
complete time series
A phenological analysis for East Africa
May 2014
6b) Average seasonality of the
A phenological analysis for East Africa
May 2014
6b) Average seasonality of the
A phenological analysis for East Africa
May 2014
Onset of Growing Season
Due to the favourable March rainfall, a
pattern of widespread early starts to
the growing season is noticeable. This
strengthens the view that early
planting has probably taken place
across wide areas of Kenya, SSD, SW
Somalia and NW Ethiopia.
Where April rainfall was below
average, early crop development will
suffer to a degree that varies with the
exact stage crops are in.
Map shows the difference between the 2014 date of onset of the
growing season and the average date over 20yrs.
Onset of growing season takes place when favourable moisture
conditions for early crop growth are in place; these happen when
two consecutive 10 day periods with 20mm rainfall or more are
Delayed starts to the season can be
seen in central and northern Somalia,
Djibouti and easternmost Ethiopia,
where a growing season has not yet
been detected in accordance with
persistence drier than average
conditions evidenced in the maps
Delayed start is also noticeable in SW
May 2014
May 2014
Refugee Population Contingency Planning Figures
(covering the time period from 1 May 2014 to 31 December 2014)
South Sudanese Refugees
Population as
of 25 April
Contingency Scenario –
Additional Arrivals
(May – Dec 2014)
Total Refugee Population
by 31 Dec 2014
most likely / worst case
most likely / worst case
205,000 / 255,000
65,000 / 115,000
100,000 / 150,000
300,000 / 350,000
100,000 / 150,000
165,000 / 215,000
199,000 / 349,000
300,000 / 450,000
569,000 / 869,000 865,000 / 1,165,000
May 2014
May 2014
South Sudan Emergency Situation.
UNHCR held consultative inter-agency meetings with partners and donors from both the
region and the specific countries affected (South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan) on
29-30 April in Nairobi - chaired by UNHCR’s Regional Refugee Coordinator for the South
Sudan crisis
A Consolidated Regional Refugee Contingency Plan was developed and presented at the
Oslo Pledging conference on 20th May
With funds forthcoming, there are key urgent needs in each country to ensure minimum
standards are met.
Key messages
• Despite the signing of the Peace Agreement, the refugee situation is most likely to
continue through the year with returns unlikely. Even in the context of a cessation of
hostilities, the food security situation coupled with deep rifts between communities will
limit return.
Approaching rains are going to limit access, increase logistic costs and have a negative
impact on health, nutrition and WASH
The current funding needs are substantial close to $480 Million for the refugee response
and an additional $2 Billion for the response inside South Sudan. Both tracks are essential.
Both tracks will save lives and support the people of South Sudan.
Nutrition and Food security issues.
May 2014
South Sudan(237,218 refugees as of 9th May).
WFP managed to distribute 10 days food ration in the first May distribution cycle and
are hoping for an additional 5 days through air drops bringing total food distributed
to 15 days for this cycle. This represents the third consecutive month is inadequate
food distribution in these camps and the food security situation is deteriorating
General nutrition situation has worsened in refugee camps due to food shortages.
Protection – rising tensions in Maban refugee camp
WASH – difficulty to transport and secure fuel for generators for water pumps
Food/Nutrition – Upper Nile food assistance crisis. Air movements essential.
Shelter/Settlement & NFIs – Pre-positioning for rains hampered.
Health – Increase in malaria and AWD during wet season
Nutrition rates in Dolo camp
proxy GAM rates(%)
Etel Fagbohoun, a UNHCR nutrition officer, checks the condition of Ransom.
The food shortages are affecting the health of the little boy and other children
Nutrition and Food security issues.
May 2014
Ethiopia (120,946 refugees as of 9th May).
Last week, more than 20,000 new arrivals from South Sudan arrived in Burubiey
entry point, Gambella escaping the fighting in Nasir.
Vast majority of new arrivals are women and children(over 70%) although
increasing number of men are now arriving.
Refugees report that others are on the way, with more amassed on South
Sudanese side waiting to cross the river.
Agreement and Identification, underway on an appropriate land for refugee
The refugee camps are experiencing high malnutrition rates. There is a lack of CSB+
in the food basket.
MUAC screening for all newly arrived children under 5 years.
Uganda(104,635 refugees as of 9th May).
Current pipeline is good but the malnutrition rates are still high.
WFP serves two-three hot meals daily at reception centers.
New arrivals are given monthly food entitlements on relocation.
Agreements and identification of suitable land for refugee settlement is on-going.
May 2014
Nutrition and food security issues.
Sudan (79,753 refugees as of 9th May).
WFP has distributed food to 43,937 South Sudanese new arrivals to date.
The malnutrition rates are still high, UNHCR is advocating for nutrition screening
on arrival with MUAC included on registration forms
Current sites are in the flood plains and there is a need to urgently relocate
refugees to less flood prone areas. Two additional sites have been identified
but the relocation is not yet underway.
Kenya (35,850 refugees as of 9th May)
• Protection – high number of UAM arriving in Kenya, slow registration process
• WASH – long process to obtain drilling permits means reliance on water
• Food/Nutrition – High rates of GAM, disrupted care practices
• Shelter/Settlement & NFIs - Identifying suitable land for refugee settlement
• Health – No new measles case reported since 28 April
Priority: Identifying and agreeing on suitable land for refugee settlement.
May 2014
Somalia (FSNAU MARCH-APRIL 2014)
Kenya: (NIWG- May 2014)
Baringo County: overall nutrition situation
is Poor and deteriorating mainly in East
• Nutrition situation in the Pastoral,
Agropastoral and Marginal Mixed
Farming livelihood zones is
classified as Serious
Several surveys being conducted this
Jan-Mar 2014 reports suggest very critical prev
of acute malnutrition in South central regions,
• Southern regions- areas classified as c
and serious. Health facilities data sugg
increasing trends of GAM in pastoral
• Northern and central regions – A stab
nutrition situation in most of North ea
and central; The situation was project
remain stable for the months of Febru
April 2014, with exception of North w
pastoral where GAM is >15%. And
deterioration is expected.
• Good access and sustained
consumption of milk in NW r
may have contributed to sta
nutrition situation
• Measles outbreak in Puntland have b
increasing .
• Sustained serious levels of acute maln
in Juba pastoralists and agrocpastora
since Deyr 2012/13
• Monitoring is continuing for Urban, ID
rural areas.
May 2014
May 2014
May 2014
Regional Seasonal Calendar
Note: This calendar is for illustrations only as it is not yet
updated to reflect current changes
May 2014
Implications of late rains & response considerations
Implications of late rains
• Crops fail
• Too late to replant
• Lack of inputs (seeds for next planting season)
• Water & pasture recovery?
• Shortfall in household stocks & regional food availability
• Price hikes in staple cereals
Response considerations
• Scaling up of safety net
• Input vouchers
• Market support
• WASH support – monitoring of water points during the next dry
• Feed supplements for dry season
5 Steps used for Response Analysis linked to IPC analysis
1. Understanding main issues
driving FS outcomes (limiting
factors products)
2. Understand direct and
underlying causes of each
issue and trends (outcome
evidence & contributing
3. Options for solving the
identified problem – Gaps,
Opportunities & Strategies
4. Prioritization of options
(gaps identified for solving
food security issues)
5. Implementation of response
options, coordination and
Step 1 & 2 – main issues & underlying causes
Step 5 - Options & Implementation
Food security issue : Limited knowledge on nutrition
Community barriers and Main causes of the problem : Low education levels, poor extension services,
Response option :
Increase community awareness on nutrition through training and sensitization
Support diversification of food production and consumption
Key activities /strategies and timing
Existing opportunities/potential By Who
Short term
(Within 1
(2- 5 years)
1. Continue with on-going training in vegetable production
through APFS and other projects
2. Continued therapeutic feeding programmes at health centres
3. Training for newly recruited health workers on basic
Integrated management of Acute Malnutrition and infant and
young child feeding (LG/UNICEF)
4. Integrating new born care and infant and young child services
into EMTCT programmes (GoU/UNICEF, Baylor College of
Medicine) Continue with behavioural change communication
social mobilization and advocacy (LG/UNICEF)
5. Training for newly recruited Health workers on basic
Integrated management of Acute Malnutrition and infant and
young child feeding (LG/UNICEF)
6. Integrating new born care and infant and young child services
into EMTCT programmes (LG-UNICEF/Bailor Collage of
 Mobilised communities
 Peace & business interaction UNICEF
with other areas outside
and partners
 High production potential for
crops and livestock in the
region (crop and pasture
 Available stores to
demonstrate proper storage
and food utilization
 Local radios
 Availability of VHT
 Availability of on-going
nutrition programmes in the
Long term
(5 – 10
1. Continue with behavioural change communication social
mobilization and advocacy (LG/UNICEF)
 Availability of VHT
 Availability of on-going
nutrition programmes in the
and partners
Kotido DLG
Kotido DLG
May 2014
Food Security analysis
in South Sudan
Disaster Needs Analysis
published on 05th of May by ACAPS
May 2014
Violence broke out in Juba on 15 December between Government and
opposition forces
At 25th of April, more than 1.2 million people had been displaced by the
hostilities. 293 000 refugees and 923 000 IDPs (70% in Jonglei, Upper
Nile, Unity)
• Humanitarian access is
challenging due to
security situation and
logistical constraints
• Protection of civilian is a
major concern with the
persistent violence and
ethnically targeted
May 2014
Key findings
Violence has been most severe in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity States
Over 3,7 million people are at immediate risk of food insecurity, and
more than 90% of them are in states that are worst affected by the
Up to 7 million people are at risk of food
Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile have the highest levels of acute and
emergency food insecurity (around 2,503 million people)
Food-insecurity of residents has also increased
Land preparation and planting normally start between mid-April and
late June. Due to the lack of seeds, continued conflict and
displacement, land preparation will be affected.
May 2014
Key findings
Most of the supply routes to Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity are closed,
worsening the already existing cereal deficit from own production.
Disrupted markets cause problems in food availability for market
dependant states as during the hunger gap (May-August) markets
are the main source of staple food.
Recurring floods will potentially affect a large number of IDPs and
residents in Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Lakes, Warrap, Unity, Jonglei
and Upper Nile.
The violence and potential flooding forces livestock owners to follow
non-traditional routes
May 2014
Pre crisis food security situation
Food insecurity levels usually have peaked in June (during the hunger
gap) and reduced around the harvest period (October).
In June 2013, 8% and 34% of households were severely and
moderately food insecure
It is an overall improvement compared to the same period in 2012 but
imply that most South Sudanese were still vulnerable in case of a
minor shock.
In June 2013, Analysis by residential status indicated that
• 36% of IDPs were food insecure
• 29% for returnees
• 8% for residents
May 2014
Pre crisis food security situation
In October 2013, just over 33% of the population was considered to
be moderately to severely food insecure.
But major disparities across States:
• Western Bahr el Ghazal (52%),
• Eastern Equatoria (50%)
• Jonglei (37%)
Except Unity, the number of severe food insecurity declined compare
to June 2013 and the previous seasons.
Prior to the start of the conflict, WFP had already planned to assist
beneficiaries particularly in Upper Nile, Jonglei, Warrap and Unity
May 2014
Conflict impact on food security
In January 2014, the number of people in acute food insecurity and
livelihood crisis (IPC phases 3, “Crisis” and 4, “Humanitarian
Emergency”) was estimated at about 3.7 million (one million pre crisis)
May 2014
Conflict impact on food security
May 2014
Conflict impact on food security
In June 2013, IDPs suffered significantly from higher levels of food
insecurity than residents. In February 2014, although residents
had a smaller proportion of severe food insecurity than IDPs,
levels of moderate food insecurity were similar
Residence status
% Severe food
% Moderate food
May 2014
Conflict impact on food security
IDPs without access to assistance were expected to continue facing
Crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) in coming months with the
onset of the lean season in May.
The number of people in Humanitarian Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is
expected to increase in some isolated counties of Jonglei, Unity
and Upper Nile State.
The situation could deteriorate in the coming months up to IPC phase
5 in some counties of Jonglei and Unity states.
May 2014
Impact on food stock
The conflict started at the end of the main cropping season, but:
• Several reports mentioned large losses of household stocks in
Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile.
• Large stocks in urban or peri-urban areas are highly likely to
have been looted or destroyed.
• Projections for 2014 indicated that Unity, Jonglei and Upper Nile
States would already have the largest projected cereal deficit
(62% to 71%)
May 2014
Impact on the next season
It is expected that the conflict will affect the May-June cultivation
season, particularly in Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile States.
Households in these areas are likely to miss cultivation of shortmaturing sorghum and maize
May 2014
Impact on Livelihood
Usual livelihood of poor household during the lean season are very
limited due to the insecurity (collection and sale of grass, firewood
and charcoal and migration to urban areas ).
The loss of livelihood assets for displaced populations greatly reduces
households’ ability to meet food needs during the lean season.
Fishing, hunting and wild food collection—activities that typically help
households get through the lean season—will remain limited as
long as insecurity persists.
There are also reports of livestock herds being dislocated from
traditional migration routes
May 2014
Market and trade route
Reliance on markets for staple food supply (sorghum, maize, pulses)
by South Sudan rural households is very high.
Since 2011, households have considered increases in food prices as
more important than all other shocks across all States.
As of March 2014, in Lankien, Nyirol County (Jonglei), the price of a
50-kilogramme bag of sorghum had increased by 150% compared
to December 2013, from SSP 200 to SSP 500 in March.
Fighting continues to disrupt key trade and transportation routes
between Renk and Malakal, Juba and Bor and Rumbek and Bentiu.
May 2014
Potential impact of flood
An average of 340 000
flood affected people
in 2012 and 2013
May 2014
Full report available on
Contact in Nairobi: [email protected]

similar documents