John Beddington - Natural Capital Initiative

Report
Biodiversity: Policy Challenges
in a Changing World
Natural Capital Initiative symposium:
“Valuing our life support systems”
London
Professor John Beddington
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and
Head of the Government Office for Science
29 April 2009
Global challenges
 Urbanisation
 Energy demand
 Food demand
 Population
Climate Change
Biodiversity
Alleviating poverty
 Water demand
Infectious diseases
Causes of degradation are
stable or increasing
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Biomes
More than half of the 6/14 major world biomes had been converted by 1990
Millennium ecosystem assessment
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Human Footprint
Source: Wildlife Conservation Society
Extinction of species
Extinctions per thousand species per million
Future extinction rates estimated to be 10 to 100 times higher
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
CBD 2010 biodiversity
target
• 2002, Conference of the Parties of the
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) 123
Ministers committed themselves to:
• ‘“.. achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction
of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the
global, regional and national levels as a
contribution to poverty alleviation and to the
benefit of all life on earth” (Decision VI/26)
Risks to ecosystems –
need to act
Source: IPCC AR 4
The situation may be worse
than predicted
Arctic, near-ice free by 2030?
(Source: Wang and Overland, 2009)
Source: NSIDC 2007
Ocean Acidification
Changes in pH over the last 25 million years
Oceans are an
important reservoir for
CO2 with ~30% of CO2
produced from fossil
fuel burning & land-use
change taken up by
oceans
(Sabine et al 2004)
• Oceans will become: warmer; more acidic; less diverse; and over
exploited
• The impact on ocean food webs, ecosystems and biogeochemical
cycles could be very serious
Source: Blackford & Gilbert 2007, Caldeira & Wickett 2003
Increases in global
population and urbanisation
Urban and rural populations of the world
World population, by region
(at mid-year) 1950 - 2050
7000
10
Population (millions)
9
Northern America
8
Latin America
7
Europe
6
Asia
5
Africa
4
3
2
1
6000
Rural population
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
Source: United Nations, World Population
Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium scenario)
1960
0
0
1950
Population (billions)
Urban population
Oceania
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization
Prospects: 2008 (revision)
Increased demand for
food and energy
World food requirements
4500.00
Million Tonnes of food
4000.00
3500.00
World primary energy demand by fuel
Milk and dairy (excl butter)
Meat (carcass weight)
Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products
Pulses
3000.00
Sugar
2500.00
Roots and tubers
Cereals, food
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
0.00
1969/71
1979/81
1989/91
1999/01
2030
World food production must rise by
50 % by 2030 to meet increasing
demand (Source: UN 2008)
2050
Total world energy demands are
predicted to increase by approx. 50%
by 2030 (Source: IEA 2008:
Reference Scenario)
Availability of fresh water
Cubic metres of water
Fresh water availability per head of
world population
Source: UNEP, 2002
1 in 3 people are already facing
water shortages
Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water
Management in Agriculture 2007
Source: ABS 2005
Total world water demands are
predicted to increase by over
30% by 2030
Source: IFRPI
The Perfect Storm?
Increased demand
50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
Climate
Change
Food
Water
Increased demand
50% by 2030
Increased demand
30% by 2030
(FAO)
(IFPRI)
Solutions?
•Ensure value of ecosystems are taken into
account when making decisions
•New energy technology
•Make hard choices about agriculture,
food, energy and water
•Better planning and management
•Change behaviour, education and
training
We recommend enhancing levels of
taxonomic training and linking such
training more directly to the ongoing
measurement of biodiversity. Royal Society
– measuring biodiversity for conservation, 2003
Agricultural production
More people means less cultivated land per person
for food, feed, (agro)-fuel and fibre production
2030 – 8.3 bn people
2030 – even less
farmland per person
Hard Agricultural Choices (i)
Cereal production evolution
Source: NRC, 2008/Henoa and Baanante 2006
Hard Agricultural Choices (ii)
Agricultural productivity
Source: Embrapa, Brazil
Key Questions
1. Can 9 billion people be
fed equitably, healthily
and sustainably?
Increased demand
50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
2. Can we cope with the
future demands on
water?
Climate
Change
3. Can we provide enough
energy to supply the
growing population
coming out of poverty?
Food
Water
Increased demand
50% by 2030
Increased demand
30% by 2030
(FAO)
(IFPRI)
Biodiversity
4. Can we mitigate and
adapt to climate change?
5. Can we do all this in the
context of redressing the
decline in biodiversity
and preserving
ecosystems?
Joint Programmes
Joint Climate Research Programme

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