Component Skills for the Agile Leader

Report
AMEDD C&S CAPTAINS CAREER COURSE
OUTLINE
 Critical Thinking
 Mind-Sets / Mental Models
 Barriers to Critical Thinking
 Creative Thinking
 Exercise
 Conclusion
 Questions
 References
2-part process:
1) Thinking about thinking
2) Evaluating the results of that thinking
ELEMENTS OF THOUGHT
Generates PURPOSE
Embodies a POINT OF VIEW
Makes ASSUMPTIONS
Generates IMPLICATIONS
Utilizes CONCEPTS
Uses INFORMATION
Makes INFERENCES
Raises QUESTIONS
CRITICAL THINKING MODEL
Requires
critical
thinking?
Stimulus
requiring
judgment
NO
Make decision /
Clarify position /
Use judgment
ASSUMPTIONS
POINT OF
VIEW
INFERENCES
YES
Egocentric
tendencies
CLARIFY
CONCERN
EVALUATION
OF
INFORMATION
Argument
analysis
IMPLICATIONS
Impact of biases
and traps
EGOCENTRIC TENDENCIES
Relatively common in military culture
 Egocentric memory
 Egocentric myopia
 Egocentric righteousness
 Egocentric blindness
PERCEPTION:
Why Can’t We See What Is There To Be Seen?
PARIS
IN THE
THE SPRING
ONCE
IN A
A LIFETIME
BIRD
IN THE
THE HAND
CRITICAL THINKING MODEL
Requires
critical
thinking?
Stimulus
requiring
judgment
NO
Make decision /
Clarify position /
Use judgment
ASSUMPTIONS
POINT OF
VIEW
INFERENCES
YES
Egocentric
tendencies
CLARIFY
CONCERN
EVALUATION
OF
INFORMATION
Argument
analysis
IMPLICATIONS
Impact of biases
and traps
MIND-SETS aka MENTAL MODELS
 Patterns of expectations on what to look for,
what is important, and how to interpret what
is seen that predisposes thinking to a certain
way
 Mind-set is akin to a screen or lens through
which one perceives the world
Impressions Resist Change
It is difficult to look at the same information
from different perspectives
Implications
 People form impressions on the basis of very
little information, but once formed, they do not
reject or change them unless they obtain rather
solid evidence
 Limit the adverse impact of this tendency by
suspending judgment for as long as possible as
new information is being received
 If information does not fit into what people
know, or think they know, they have great
difficulty processing it
CRITICAL THINKING MODEL
Requires
critical
thinking?
Stimulus
requiring
judgment
NO
Make decision /
Clarify position /
Use judgment
ASSUMPTIONS
POINT OF
VIEW
INFERENCES
YES
Egocentric
tendencies
CLARIFY
CONCERN
EVALUATION
OF
INFORMATION
Argument
analysis
IMPLICATIONS
Impact of biases
and traps
Military leaders need to continuously ask
themselves the following questions…
Is this something I need to think about critically?
How are my point of view and egocentric tendencies affecting the
way I look at this?
What’s the point of view of the person presenting the information?
What are my assumptions?
Are we making the correct inferences based on the data provided?
Are there data we need to consider and can access?
Is the information true or at least plausible?
Are the conclusions warranted by the evidence?
Are biases and traps affecting our judgment?
Have I considered all the implications?
Cognitive Bias
Psychological impediments
Logical fallacies
COGNITIVE BIAS
 Mental errors caused by our simplified information
processing strategies
 Availability Heuristic: likelihood of event assessed by
ease with which examples of that event can be brought
to mind
 Representative Heuristic: make judgment based on how
much item represents known item – sample size bias;
regression to the mean
 Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: develop estimates
from initial anchor and adjust from there to yield the
final answer
PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPEDIMENTS
 Loyalty, herd instinct, groupthink
 Prejudice, stereotypes, scapegoats
 Wishful thinking, mirror-imaging, self-
deception
 Rationalization, denial
Groupthink Symptoms
Illusion of
invulnerability
Belief in
inherent group
morality
Collective
rationalization
Out-group
stereotypes
Selfcensorship
Illusion of
unanimity
Direct pressure
on dissenters
Self-appointed
mind guards
LOGICAL FALLACIES
Common fallacies in MDMP
 Appeal to (unqualified) authority, fear,
masses
 Slippery slope
 Straw man
 Arguments against the person
 False dichotomy
 False cause
 Red herring
INTELLECTUAL STANDARDS
CLARITY
ACCURACY
PRECISION
RELEVANCE
DEPTH
BREADTH
LOGIC
SIGNIFICANCE
FAIRNESS
Problem-Solving Exercise
MENTAL TOOLS
 Questioning Assumptions
 Seeing Different Perspective
 Thinking Backwards
 Devil’s Advocate
 Stimulating Creative Thinking
BLUF: A questioning attitude is a prerequisite to
a successful search for new ideas
Problem to Solution
Solution 1
Solution 2
Solution 3
This is not a test of intelligence.
EXERCISE RULES OF ENGAGEMENT
 You will be asked to answer 2 questions that
require reasoning
 These are not trick questions
 The information provided is true and
complete – take it at face value
 You will have 60 seconds for each question
 This is not a test of intelligence – jot your
answers on a piece of paper
QUESTION 1
Each card has a letter on 1 side and number on the other.
RULE: If the letter is a vowel, the number must be even.
Which card(s) must you check at the minimum to ensure
compliance with the rule?
A
B
4
7
QUESTION 2
Rule: You must
be at least 21
to drink
alcoholic
beverages.
Which
reveler(s) must
you check at
the minimum to
ensure
compliance?
She’s 23.
He’s drinking
wine.
He’s drinking
lemonade.
She’s 19.
EXERCISE RESULTS
•Check the A to see that the number
•Check the wine drinker to see that
on the reverse is even.
he’s at least 21.
•Check the 7 to see that the letter
•Check the 19 y/o to see that her
on the reverse is not a vowel.
drink is non-alcoholic.
•The rule is not violated no matter
•The rule is not violated no matter
what number is behind the B or
what letter is behind the 4.
what the 23 y/o is drinking or how
old the lemonade drinker is.
CONCLUSION
“Technological advances alone do not constitute
change. The most dramatic advances in military
operations over history have been borne of
ideas – ideas about warfighting, organization,
and doctrine. The Army’s most critical asset will
not be technology; it will be critical thinking.”
AUSA Torchbearer National Security Report,
March 2005
Components Skills for the Agile Leader
REFERENCES
 Thinking Critically About Critical Thinking: A Fundamental Guide for
Strategic Leaders, Colonel Stephen J. Gerras, Ph.D., Director,
Leadership and Command Instruction, U.S. Army War College, 1
June 2006
 Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Richards J. Heuer, Jr., Center
for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1999
 How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process,
Floyd J. Usry, Jr., LtCol., USMC, Naval War College, 17 May 2004
 Critical Thinking Competency Standards: Standards, Principles,
Performance Indicators, and Outcomes with a Critical Thinking
Master Rubric, Dr. Richard Paul and Dr. Linda Elder,
www.criticalthinking.org, 2008
 Fallacies: The Art of Mental Trickery and Manipulation, Dr. Richard
Paul and Dr. Linda Elder, www.criticalthinking.org, 2008
RESOURCES ON THE WEB
 Foundations for Critical Thinking –
http://www.criticalthinking.org/
 Creativity, Thinking Skills, Critical Thinking,
Problem Solving, Decision Making –
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awcthkg.htm
 Tools, Techniques, Methods, Quotes on All
Matters Creative – http://creatingminds.org/
 Online Writing Lab at Purdue –
http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/

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