Reducing Post-harvest Loss to Advance Food Security

Report
Postharvest Loss Prevention,
ICT, and Innovation in Measurement
Steve Sonka, Director
May 21, 2013
AGENDA
• Future food security challenges
• Several “views” of postharvest loss
• The ADM Institute
– Themes
– Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss
– Innovation in measurement
Global Food Demand Is Predicted to Increase
70% by 2050 (FAO; 2009)
Per capita food consumption
3500
3000
kcal/capita/day
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
World
1964/66
Industrialized
countries
1964/66-1997/99 Growth
Developing
countries
1997/99-2030 Growth
Global Crop Demand Is Estimated to Double
From 2005 to 2050 (NAS; 2011)
2030 Food Demands Require
About 200 Million More Hectares (McKinsey; 2011)
Commodity Price Changes
Tell Interesting Story (McKinsey; 2011)
AGENDA
• Future food security challenges
X
• Several “views” of postharvest loss
• The ADM Institute
– Themes
– Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss
– Innovation in measurement
PHL Varies by Region (FAO; 2011)
DATA!
Per capita food waste and food loss (Kg/year)
Kg
per
year
PHL Varies by Commodity (FAO; 2011)
Postharvest loss estimates in South & Southeast Asia
70%
66%
60%
49%
50%
consumption
40%
distribution
30%
processing and packaging
30%
22%
postharvest handling and storage
20%
agricultural production
10%
0%
Cereals
Roots & Tubers
Oilseeds &
Pulses
Fruit &
Vegetables
PHL Varies Across Growing Conditions
(IBRD/WB; 2011)
Generalized loss profiles for major grains in Eastern and Southern
Africa
30.0%
25.0%
24.2%
market storage
20.0%
16.8%
18.2%
16.9%
14.6%
15.0%
transport to market
storage
transport to store
10.0%
winnowing
shelling/threshing
5.0%
drying
harvesting/field drying
0.0%
hot/humid
maize small
warm
maize large
arid/desert
sorghum
small
arid/desert
millet small
hot/humid
rice small
PHL Varies Between Countries:
For Same Crop (FAO; 2002)
Rice: Total postharvest losses
6%
5.46%
4.78%
5%
3.74%
4%
3.47%
3.16%
3%
2.74%
Asia
China
2%
1.31%
1%
1%
0.85%
0.99%
0%
harvesting
threshing
drying
storage
milling
PHL Varies Between States
Within One Country (ADM Institute; 2012)
Estimated postharvest loss of black gram in India
30%
25.28%
25%
22.68%
20%
grading & repacking
storage
15%
threshing
drying
10%
harvesting
5%
0%
Maharashtra
Madhya Pradesh
A More Specific Perspective:
Rice in SE Asia (IRRI; 2011)
In SE Asia, physical losses range from
15-25%.
Crop
Consumption
Quality losses range from 10-30%
(loss in value)
Reducing PHL and Increasing Yields
Have High Potential (McKinsey; 2011)
Little Attention Is Devoted
to PHL and Yields (McKinsey; 2011)
Why Reduce Postharvest Loss?
Some Hypotheses
• Estimates suggest 1/3 of agricultural production is “wasted”
and doesn’t reach food consumer
• Investment required to reduce PHL could be modest
• Technology advances should make reduction more feasible
and less expensive
• Arable land, water, energy are in limited supply – reducing PHL
can lessen pressure on scarce resources
AGENDA
• Future food security challenges
• Several “views” of postharvest loss
X
X
• The ADM Institute
– Themes
– Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss
– Innovation in measurement
Timeline of the ADM Institute
2011
Official Announcement
•$10 million gift
•India/Brazil emphasis
•Staple crops
The ADM Institute
Vision Statement
Key elements include:
• To be an international information and technology hub
• To encompass technologies, practices and systems
• To focus on staple crops in key agricultural domains
Timeline of the ADM Institute
2011
2012
Official Announcement
•$10 million gift
•India/Brazil emphasis
•Staple crops
Awareness & Collaboration
•$2.5 million in funding
allocated
Four Themes
Scientific Animations Without Borders (SAWBO)
• Uses animations to
disseminate information,
particularly for lowliterate populations
– Images and audio to
make information
easily understood
– Dissemination and
access through
internet, cell phones
and tablets
Timeline of the ADM Institute
2011
2012
Official Announcement
•$10 million gift
•India/Brazil emphasis
•Staple crops
Awareness & Collaboration
•$2.5 million in funding
allocated
2013
Sustainable Prevention
of Postharvest Loss
Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss
Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss
Value
$s
S
Cost of Reduction
1/3rd of
production
is lost
D
Unsustainable Gap
Current
Setting
100 %
Reduction
Reduced
Loss
(%)
Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss
Cost of Reduction
Value
$s
S
S1
Measurement
!!!!!
Sustainable
Gain
Current
Setting
D1Enhanced Quality
D
100 %
Reduction
Reduced
Loss
(%)
Measurement
“Another priority in the poorest countries must be to reduce the tragic waste of
losses after harvest from inadequate storage, transportation and pest control.”
“.. we urge …a goal of cutting in half these post harvest losses by 1985”
Henry Kissinger. 7th special session of the U.N. General Assembly. September 1, 1975
Adopted as a resolution of the U.N. General Assembly. September 19, 1975
“What's measured improves”
– Peter F. Drucker
"Measurement is the first step that leads to control and eventually to
improvement. If you can't measure something, you can't understand it. If
you can't understand it, you can't control it. If you can't control it, you
can't improve it."
– H. James Harrington
"What gets measured gets done, what gets measured and fed back gets done
well, what gets rewarded gets repeated.“
– John E. Jones
Innovation in Measurement
What
to Measure
How
to Measure
• Actual loss in specific local settings
• Interventions to reduce loss
• Effectiveness of interventions over time
• Low cost
• Systemic
• ICT enabled
 but probably for non PHL reasons
“Practice” to Date
• Identify problem
• Quantify (measure/estimate) losses
• Identify causes
• Propose technical solutions
• Fund project to implement solutions
Move to next project
Systems as Events/Patterns/Structure
Events
Patterns
Structure
The visible outcomes
Changes over time
Determines patterns
Knowledge-Creating Systems
Tacit
Explicit
Observation
Documentation
Implementation
Analysis
Exploit the Most Versatile Sensor
Phone Penetration Statistics
6.7 Billion mobile phones world-wide at the end of 2012
India in 2012
• 925 million mobile phone subscribers
• 75% of the population
• #2 Global Market (after China)
Brazil in 2012
• 259 million mobile phone subscribers
• 130% of the population
• #5 Global Market (after China, India, US, and Indonesia)
Nigeria in 2012
• 107 million mobile phone subscribers
• 65% of the population
• #10 Global Market
Tweets on Price of Rice
(UN Global Pulse and Crime Hexagon; 2011)
Price of Bread in Uruguay
(UN Global Pulse and PriceStats, 2011)
Example: Looking to Re-fuel after Sandy
Dataset
Hurricane Sandy
Time duration
14 days (Nov.2-15, 2012)
Locations
16 cities in East Coasts
# of users tweeted
7,583
# of tweets
12,931
# of users crawled in
social network
704,941
# of follower-followee
links
37,597
Top tweets selected
for annotation
140
Address Source Dependency
Unconfirmed tweets
Social network helps !
Finding Gas in NYC after Hurricane Sandy
37
Community Knowledge Worker
(Grameen Foundation, 2010)
• Grameen Foundation is implementing an information network,
Community Knowledge Worker (CKW), in Uganda, using mobile
technology to delivery information to and from farmers.
• CKW: an ICT enabled agricultural extension worker
• Information to farmers:
–
–
–
–
–
Market price: 42 commodities in 20 districts
Weather information: Up to 3 days in advance
Farming best practices
Supplier directory
Market platform: link buyers and sellers
• Mobile survey-based collection of farm data
– Raw data
– Analyses
– GIS data
IRRI’s Approach on Measurement
For sound medium and long term
planning, what do we need to know?
Location specific, timely and accurate information on rice
production, supplies, and trends
In particular:
•What is the harvested area?
•When will it be harvested?
•What is the yield?
A combination of remote sensing and crop yield modeling can
provide this information under certain conditions
Optical
Radar
Concept of RIICE (RIICE; 2011)
Global rice monitoring and forecasting system:
Radar-based real time crop monitoring system for rice
Color shows crop establishment
cyan late Dec to early Jan
blue mid-Jan
red & green still under land
preparation in mid-Jan
• planting dates
• rice area estimates
• crop status & yield estimates
• crop damage estimates
• crop insurance
Sentinel 1A & B satellites
Global coverage every
6 days 20-m resolution
Free
Open Data
Definition
“Open data is often referred to as the concept that information should
be freely available to the public, without restriction or charge for its use
by others. In the food and agricultural realm, open data is an essential
piece of finding the answers we’ll need to feed the world.” (USDA,
2013)
Actions
• Launched The Food, Agriculture, and Rural “data community”
on Data.gov
• The Millennium Challenge Corporation released an open
evaluation data catalog
• Launched USAID.gov/Developer
Closing Comments
• Society’s future food security – daunting but done before
• Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss has potential to
contribute to the challenge
• Substantial progress unlikely without innovation in
measurement
– Low cost
– Systemic
– ICT enabled
Email: [email protected]
Website: http://postharvestinstitute.illinois.edu

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