S. Sundar - Ramanathan

Transport - Move towards
S. Sundar
Distinguished Fellow, TERI
HUDCO Chair Professor, TERI University,
5th Feb 2014
Key trends: Growth in freight
% Share (NTKM)*
Road = 50.12%
Rail = 36.06%
shipping = 6.8%
Pipeline = 7.48%
IWT = 0.24%
Airways = 0.02%
 Continuous erosion in the share of Railways in freight movement and increase in share of less fuel
efficient road transport
 Road transport is the most dominant mode of transport with over 50% of the freight
 Length of cross-country crude oil pipelines in India : 5889 km(2010)
 Total product pipelines (including LPG pipelines) - 12 925 km, with a capacity of 72 MT
share in total freight traffic as of 2007-08, source: RITES Total Transport Study;
and RITES Total Transport Study
Five Year Plan Working Group Report on Road Transport
Key trends: Growth in
passenger traffic
% Share (BPKM)*
Road = 86.7%
Rail = 12.9%
Air= 0.4%
Substantial shift from rail to road
 Rail dominates long-haul
 Road dominates short-haul
Road transport is the most dominant mode of transport. Almost 90% passengers moved by road
in 2010-11
Air based passenger transport has seen a rapid growth in the last decade
share in total passenger traffic as of 2007-08 compiled from 11th Five Year Plan Working Group Report on Road Transport and Statistical Summary –
Indian Railways
BAU passenger growth trends
expected to continue in future
• Rapid increase in passenger
transport demand expected
2010 to 2030
3 times increase
2010 to 2050
7 times increase
• Road sector’s dominance to
continue in BAU
Source: Estimates by TERI (2009)
Urban Transport
Current Scenario–Urban
Population growth and rapid urbanization;
more and bigger cities
38% of India’s total population to live in cities by 2025
53 million plus cities now; 85 million plus cities by
2025 and 125 by 2050. Most million plus cities are
urban sprawls leading to increase in travel demand
Declining share of public transport
 Public transport accounts for 30-55% in the four large
 Public transport share in cities having a population of
more than 0.8 million was in the range of 60% to 80% in
1994; this has now declined to 35% to 55%
 Arrest the decline in public transport and increase its
share to 50%
 Introduce public transport in second-order cities
 Promote informal transport
Non-motorised transport also
 Lack of infrastructure for non-motorized transport and the increasing
trip lengths due to the horizontal expansion of cities have affected
pedestrians, cyclists and other non-motorized transport users in cities
 Share of NMT, though high in cities, is declining as cities grow
 Maintain and increase the share of NMT
Mode share in Indian cities
Rapid motorization
About 1/3rd of the total vehicles in 35 million +cities
Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population
Energy implications
 The transport sector accounted for 27% (98 mtoe), next only to industry
sector, of the total commercial energy consumed in the country*
 The transport sector had the largest share in consumption of diesel
(~70%) and petrol (~95%)#
 Petrol and diesel constitute 20% and 78%, respectively of the fuel
consumed by the transport sector; the remaining 2% consists of CNG,
LPG, and electricity
 In a BAU scenario, energy consumption is likely to increase by 6 times
by 2050; dominated by road transport
 Current imports of about 85% of 204 MT of crude oil processed in the
country would increase to 90% of 757 mtoe by 2030, compromising
India’s energy security
Sources: TERI estimates (2013);
#Report of the Expert Group to Advise on Pricing Methodology of Regulated Petroleum Products (2013)
Is the current scenario
Current scenario:
 Lack of an integrated policy, targets and strategy to place
transport on a low carbon path
 Fragmented responsibility
 Lack of inter-modal connectivity and seamless movement
 Policies favour the personal automobile
 Cities spend more on infrastructure expansion- creating
more space for cars- flyovers, parking lots, expressways,
 Price distortions and fuel adulteration
Has led to uni-modal growth with excessive
dependence on road transport
Lack of effective emission
Lack of a formal fuel quality or emissions road map beyond
2010 for new vehicles
New Auto Fuel Policy Committee set up in 2013 to draw up
roadmap up to 2025. The Committee is yet to submit its
Different standards – one
 One set of standards for air quality across the country
 Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for
20 cities and rest of the country
 Many other cities are more polluted than the ones
where better quality fuel is presently supplied
 Dual standards effectively treat the majority of the
citizens in the country as second class citizens
 Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities need to
fill inferior quality fuel with consequences
For New Vehicles
better quality fuels and emission
standards –
EURO IV across the country by 2015,
EURO V by 2017 and
EURO VI by 2019
Move from Indian Driving Cycle towards
World Harmonised Test Cycles
Move from Indian driving cycle to
World Harmonized Test Cycles
And for inuse vehicles
 PUC totally unsatisfactory
Poor compliance
– Equipment not properly calibrated
– Operators not trained
– Integrity of testing in doubt
 Strengthen existing I&M system for all vehicles,
especially for trucks , buses and 3 wheelers
 Introduce in-use vehicle management systems based on
random COP testing and deterioration factors together
with a recall policy
 Move to annual re-registration of private vehicles
Current regulations require private vehicles to re-register after a
period of 15 years
Formulate a policy for fleet modernization to benefit
from better fuels
The sustainable approach
Avoid…the need to travel
Shift…to sustainable modes
Improve…systems, technology and fuels
Approach particularly important for
urban areas
number of trips or at least rate of growth of number of
Reduce length of trips
Two key instruments to do this:
of land use and transport in new developments and
retrofitting existing developments
 Use of information technology (IT) as a substitute for physical
mobility – tele-/e-work and flexi-work hours, egovernance/shopping/education, etc.
from personal vehicles to public transport and non-motorized
 Prevent shift from NMT and public transport (PT)
and facilitate NMT with appropriate policies and infrastructure
 Introduce/enhance public transport capacity as appropriate
Regulate/rationalise para transit to supplement PT
Introduce in parallel measures to discourage the routine use and
ownership of personal vehicles
efficient and clean vehicles and fuels
traffic flow, driver behavior,road conditions etc
Establish robust inspection and maintenance regimes for all
vehicles, with priority for trucks and buses
Move towards a world harmonized testing cycle for Type
Approval testing
Encourage the use of alternate fuels and accelerate
introduction of e-vehicles and solar charging
Introduce intelligent transport systems to reduce congestion and
facilitate smooth flow of traffic
Issues in governance
 ASI interventions call for close collaboration between
Centre and States
 States have a major role in Avoid and Shift and also in
emission control and air quality management
 Section 7 of the Air Act empowers a state to prescribe
tighter vehicle emission and fuel quality standards- states
should examine the need for more stringent standards in
heavily polluted cities
 Need unified agencies for transport at national, state and
urban level
– All matters pertaining to transport should come under a single umbrella
Thank you

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