India – Africa Trade and Investment Relationship CII Conclave Siddhartha Roy Economic Advisor – Tata Group E-Mail: [email protected] March 19, 2013 SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION The weak economic conditions in the western world could impact the flow of FDI, ODA and trade with African economies. Increasing role of large developing countries in global trade, finance and investment coupled with their rapid economic growth suggest that Africa focuses on long-term & mutually beneficial engagement with the these economies. India and Africa have shared healthy economic and political ties for a long time. To further boost the ties, India has undertaken major policy initiatives e.g. India-Africa Partnership conclaves, India-Africa Forum, Focus Africa Programme etc. India has emerged Africa’s fourth largest trade partner after EU, China and US. India Africa trade has soared from US$ 4.5 bn in 2000-01 to US$ 67.9 bn in 2011-12 and is expected to reach US$90 bn by 2015. SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION CONTD.. • India’s engagement in Africa is aimed at building a sustainable partnership centered around capacity building, technology dissemination, people-centric approach, educational support, capital support etc. • At the 2nd India-Africa Forum Summit, held in May 2011, India announced a Duty Free Tariff Preferential scheme (DFTP) for the 49 least developed countries, 33 of whom are in Africa. This will cover 94% of India’s total tariff lines and, more importantly provide preferential market access on tariff lines for 92.5% of the global exports of all LDCs. • Items covered - cotton, cocoa, aluminium ores, copper ores, cashew nuts, cane sugar, readymade garments, fish fillets, non industrial diamonds etc. • It is hoped that the LDC’s in Africa, who have not yet subscribed to the DFTP scheme, would do so shortly and make use of this increased market access to the large Indian market. INDIA’S EXPORTS TO AFRICA LDC* vs. NON-LDC KEY PLAYERS Total Exports to Africa $ 24.7 bn 2011-2012 $ 7.2 bn To LDCs (29.1%) To non-LDCs Source: Commerce Ministry, India *Least Developed Countries $ 17.5 bn (70.9%) % Share USD bn in Africa SOUTH AFRICA 4.7 19.2 NIGERIA 2.7 10.9 EGYPT A RP 2.4 9.8 KENYA 2.3 9.2 TANZANIA REP^ 1.6 6.5 TOTAL 13.7 55.6 ^LDC INDIA’S IMPORTS FROM AFRICA LDC vs. NON-LDC KEY PLAYERS Total Imports from $ 43.2 bn Africa 2011-2012 $ 9.4 bn From LDCs (21.8%) From non-LDCs Source: Commerce Ministry, India % Share USD bn in Africa NIGERIA 14.7 34.0 SOUTH AFRICA 9.9 23.1 ANGOLA* 6.6 15.3 EGYPT A RP 3.0 7.0 ALGERIA 2.2 5.0 TOTAL 36.5 84.4 $ 33.8 bn (78.2%) *LDC AFRICA - FDI INFLOWS USD billion 73.4 63.3 52.6 2007 2008 2009 43.1 42.7 2010 2011 Source: World Investment Report 2012, African Economic Outlook 2012 FDI inflows to Africa declined for the third consecutive year after peaking in 2008. In 2011, while FDI inflows increased by 14% in East & South East Asia and 16% in Latin America & Caribbean, it declined by 1% in Africa. AFRICA - FDI INFLOWS (CONTD..) FDI is an important source of productive investment (fixed assets & inventories) in Africa. According to UNCTAD 2010 investment report, the average share of FDI in gross fixed capital was 19.2% in Africa which is almost double the world average and well above 12.4% for other developing countries. Between 2010 and 2011, FDI to Africa from developed countries fell leading to increase in share of developing and transition economies for the first time. According to World Investment Report 2012, share of the later increased from 45% in 2010 to 53% in 2011. This is expected to rise further as these economies look for additional natural resources and access to growing African markets. Apart from natural resources, investment is also getting routed into manufacturing and services which enhances the potential for technology transfer and increasing productivity and thereby aiding economic growth of countries not rich in resources. INDIAN INVESTMENT IN AFRICA • Total Indian investment in Africa is upwards of US$ 33 bn. • According to research agency “fdiIntelligence”, Africa recorded 26 new manufacturing projects from Indian companies in 2011, a rise of 44% from 2010. This led to almost 17000 new job creation. • Between 2003-2009, 70 Indian companies invested in greenfield projects in Africa, totaling US$ 25 billion; this represents close to 5 percent of total greenfield FDI projects in Africa, according to African Development Bank. FDI VS. PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT (USD BN.) 80 60 Africa 40 FDI 20 Portfolio 0 -20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -40 80 Brazil 60 40 FDI 20 Portfolio 0 -20 40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 India 30 20 FDI 10 Portfolio 0 -10 -20 2000-01 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 OVERSEAS DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, NET (USD BN) 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012p Source: African Economic Outlook 2012 ODA, an important source of finance along with FDI, has stagnated in the post crisis period. The trend could continue well in the future because of the sovereign debt crisis and the austerity measures in the OECD countries. INDIAN AID TO AFRICA • Indian aid to Africa is mostly in the form of capacity building, skill development, credit lines, scholarships and knowledge sharing. • Total aid to Africa during 2011-12 was Rs. 150 cr (USD 27.5 mn) as compared to a miniscule Rs. 10 cr in 1997-98. • During the 2nd India-Africa summit held in May 2011, India unveiled US$ 5.7 bn in credit and grants for development projects and over a 100 capacity building institutions in Africa. • Relationship between aid and trade can make the process sustainable. FUNDING REQUIREMENTS & DEFICIT FOR INFRASTRUCTURE IN AFRICA USD bn. annually Capital expenditure Operation and maintenance Total Requirement Actual Spending Deficit Total 60.4 33 93.3 45.3 48 Power 26.7 14.1 40.8 11.6 29.2 Water & Sanitation 14.9 7.0 21.9 7.6 14.3 Transport 8.8 9.4 18.2 16.2 2.0 ICT 7.0 2.0 9.0 9.0 0.0 Irrigation 2.9 0.6 3.4 0.9 2.5 Sector Source: World Bank (2010) • Current spending on infrastructure in Africa is roughly $ 45 bn. per year there is a gap of $ 48.3 bn. annually which needs to be filled According to African Economic Outlook 2012, “Africa’s inability to mobilize finance and private sector involvement has held up energy and infrastructure development. The recent Africa Energy Outlook 2040 study (NEPAD, African Union and AfDB 2011) concludes that an estimated USD 43.6 billion per year will be needed to meet forecast energy demand for Africa up to 2040.” EMPLOYMENT GENERATION IN AFRICA THROUGH MEANINGFUL COLABORATION At 200 mn, Africa has the youngest (15-24 yrs) population in the world and it is expected to double by 2040. Working age population (15-64 yrs) grew from 443 mn to 550 mn between 2000 and 2008, an increase of 25% (CAGR of 2.7%) and is likely to reach 1 bn by 2040. The youth population is not only growing fast but also getting better educated which calls for creation of meaningful jobs to engage them in the productive sectors of the economy. Failure to do so could pose a risk and threat to social cohesion and political stability in Africa. Source: African Economic Outlook 2012 EMPLOYMENT GENERATION IN AFRICA THROUGH MEANINGFUL COLABORATION (CONTD..) • In many segments, the emerging African demand pattern is similar to India’s 10 years ago. • Consequently, the technology and product offerings of Indian firms can meet the cost structure and product aspirations can of the African consumers. • This provides an opportunity to Indian firms to invest in Africa and thereby creating meaningful employment opportunities. INDIA-AFRICA TRADE RELATIONSHIP The WTO-CII study indicates: Since 2005, India-Africa economic partnership has moved to a new trajectory. Trade and investment are the two facets of this relationship, followed by development assistance. Notwithstanding global economic crisis, South-South economic partnership has grown. Key sector of Indian investment – IT, telecom, energy, automobile, engineering services, project management and supplies. Trade has gone beyond natural resources and encompasses value added products. INDIA-AFRICA TRADE RELATIONSHIP CONTD.. Survey results from 60 key African and Indian companies suggests - where commercially driven development assistance can make a difference, key problem areas for trade: • Access to trade finance • Access to market – knowledge about market • Transport and logistics cost • Africa’s difficulties in investing in India – Absence of bilateral investment treaties – Business environment – Difficulty in securing finance • India’s difficulties in investing in Africa – – – – Absence of bilateral treaties Business environment Market Size Lack of tax incentives UNDERSTANDING INDIA-AFRICA RELATIONSHIP • Africa is not a homogenous market, it is a fragmented economy • Different countries are at different stages of development • There has been some success in removing import duties within regional groupings • However a range of non-tariff and regulatory barriers remain – raising transaction costs • Movement of goods & services and people across borders is somewhat restricted • Consequently, internal transport costs are high. This adds to the costs of goods & services in the hinterland • Intra-Africa fragmentation restricts the size of the market INDIA-AFRICA RELATIONSHIP (A BILATERAL OR REGIONAL ALTERNATIVE) Learning from CEO’s Forum (India-South Africa) • • • • • Take up issues impacting bilateral trade and investment and suggest policy measures to meet a trade target Focus on sectors of interest – Financial services, mining, pharma & healthcare, infrastructure & power, manufacturing Issues considered – tariff barriers, visa applications, PTA possibility and technology transfer Principles of reciprocity and partnership Action oriented proposals and need for policy tweaking/change Similar format can be used with other African countries/regions - A private stakeholder’s initiative with government support THANK YOU!