Marketing Speaker

Report
World Grain & Oilseed
Outlook
March 2014
1
– Corn
•
•
•
•
Summary
Acreage Exhale
Export Expansion??
Funds big buyers.
SA Crop Shrinking
• Bearish Bias - $3.50 by 2015
– Soy
• US Oversold?
• Acreage Expansion
• Prices At $9.00 by Fall
– Wheat
• Ample World Exportable Supplies
• Currently Only One Growing Area Issue
• Prices Closer To Corn Values
2
3
Historical US Planted Acreage
USDA
IAG
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
78.6
#N/A
80.9
#N/A
81.8
#N/A
78.3
#N/A
93.5
0.5
86.0
0.9
86.4
1.9
88.2
2.1
91.9
3.0
97.2
0.3
95.4
3.6
94.0
Double Crop
Prevented Plant
73.4
3.67
#N/A
75.2
4.51
#N/A
72.0
2.88
#N/A
75.5
3.78
#N/A
64.7
5.18
0.6
75.7
6.81
0.6
77.5
4.65
0.9
77.4
2.32
1.3
75.0
4.50
1.4
77.2
5.40
0.2
76.5
7.65
1.7
82.0
6.00
59.7
#N/A
57.2
#N/A
57.3
#N/A
60.5
0.3
63.2
0.1
59.2
0.9
53.6
3.3
54.4
4.1
55.7
0.6
56.2
2.0
55.0
Prevented Plant
62.1
#N/A
13.7
#N/A
14.2
#N/A
15.3
#N/A
10.8
0.1
9.5
0.0
9.1
0.2
11.0
0.1
14.7
0.2
12.3
0.1
10.4
0.2
11.0
Prevented Plant
13.5
#N/A
227.6
229.5
225.3
226.5
229.6
234.4
232.2
230.2
236.0
242.5
238.5
242.0
YoY chg (less dbl crp)
224.0
1.3
225.0
1.0
222.4
-2.6
222.7
0.3
224.4
1.7
227.5
3.2
227.5
0.0
227.8
0.3
231.5
3.7
237.0
5.5
230.9
-6.2
236.0
5.1
Prevent Plant Total
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
1.5
1.6
3.9
6.8
8.8
1.1
7.5
325.7
322.3
317.6
315.6
320.4
325.0
319.3
316.7
315.1
326.3
324.8
34.1
34.7
34.9
36.0
36.8
34.6
33.7
31.1
31.2
29.7
27.0
Corn
Prevented Plant
Soybeans
All Wheat
Cotton
Primary
Primary less dbl crp
Principle Crops*
CRP Enrolled
Source: USDA, IAG,million acres, million bushels, million 480-lb bales
* Crops included in Principle Crops are corn, sorghum, oats, barley, winter wheat, rye, Durum wheat, other spring wheat, rice, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edible beans, potatoes,
sugarbeets, canola, and proso millet. Harvested acreage is used for all hay, tobacco, and sugarcane in computing total area planted. Includes double cropped acres and unharvested small
grains planted as cover crops.
4
USDA, IAG
5
US Corn Supply and Demand
Millions of Acres
Millions of Bushels
Area Planted
Area Harvested
Percent Harvested
Yield Per Acre
13/14 USDA Estimates
February
March
95.4
95.4
87.7
87.7
92%
92%
158.8
158.8
IAG Estimates
13/14
14/15
95.4
94.0
87.7
86.0
92%
91%
158.8
159.0
11/12
91.9
84
91%
147.2
12/13
97.2
87.4
90%
123.4
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
1,128
12,360
29
989
10,780
162
821
13,925
35
821
13,925
35
821
13,925
35
1,618
13,673
20
Total Supply
13,517
11,932
14,781
14,781
14,781
15,311
Feed and Residual
Feed Replaced by DDGs
Food, Seed and Industrial
Ethanol Usage
Total Domestic
Exports
Exports Replaced by DDGs
4,557
1,310
6,428
5,000
10,985
1,543
297
4,335
1,173
6,044
4,648
10,379
731
322
5,300
5,300
5,400
6,400
5,000
11,700
1,600
6,400
5,000
11,700
1,625
5,291
1,165
6,393
4,992
11,685
1,479
443
Total Demand
12,528
11,111
13,300
13,325
13,163
13,350
Ending Stocks
Stocks to Usage
Production-Usage
Carry-Out Months of Supply
Average Farm Price
USDA Estimates
989
7.89%
-167
0.95
$6.22
821
7.39%
-331
0.89
$6.89
1,481
11.14%
625
1.34
$4.20
$4.80
1,456
10.93%
600
1.31
$4.25
$4.75
1,618
12.29%
762
1.47
1,961
14.69%
323
1.76
6,450
5,000
11,850
1,500
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
US Wheat Supply & Demand
(million bushels, million acres)
Millions of Acres
Millions of Bushels
Area Planted
Area Harvested
Percent Harvested
Yield per Harvested Acre
10/11
53.6
47.6
89%
46.3
11/12
54.4
45.7
84%
43.7
12/13
55.7
48.9
88%
46.3
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
976
2,207
97
862
1,999
112
743
2,266
123
718
2,130
170
718
2,130
170
718
2,130
170
603
2,154
100
Total Supply
3,279
2,974
3,131
3,018
3,018
3,018
2,857
Food
Seed
Feed and Residual
Total Domestic Usage
Exports
926
71
132
1,128
1,289
941
76
162
1,180
1,051
945
73
388
1,406
1,007
960
74
250
1,284
1,175
960
74
250
1,284
1,175
960
75
250
1,285
1,130
950
75
125
1,150
1,000
Total Demand
2,417
2,231
2,414
2,459
2,459
2,415
2,150
862
35.66%
41.30%
743
33.30%
34.45%
718
29.74%
35.65%
558
22.69%
558
22.69%
603
24.96%
707
32.86%
$5.70
$7.24
$7.77
Ending Stocks
Stocks to Usage
% Soft Wheat (Red & White)
Average Farm Price
USDA Estimates
13/14 USDA Estimates
February
March
56.2
56.2
45.2
45.2
80%
80%
47.2
47.2
$6.65
$6.95
$6.75
IAG Estimates
13/14
14/15
56.2
55.0
45.2
46.8
80%
85%
47.2
46.0
$6.95
15
USDA, IAG
16
World Major Wheat Exporter Supply & Demand
March Report
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
10/11
84.28
345.73
13.34
11/12
78.66
378.33
19.06
Estimated
12/13
74.54
332.04
16.47
Total Supply
443.35
476.04
423.04
448.93
450.04
Feed
Total Domestic
Exports
85.28
247.92
116.73
97.81
261.53
140.01
90.11
252.61
116.72
88.45
250.88
138.89
86.85
249.28
141.39
Total Demand
364.65
401.55
369.33
389.77
390.67
53.71
41.69%
59.16
46.67%
59.37
47.12%
(million metric tons)
Ending Stocks
78.69
74.50
Stocks to Usage
49.93%
48.68%
*Canada, US, EU-27, FSU-12, Australia, Argentina
USDA Estimates
2013/14 USDA Projections
February
March
53.59
53.67
379.19
379.71
16.16
16.67
17
Canada Wheat Supply & Demand
March Report
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
10/11
7.74
23.30
0.44
11/12
7.36
25.29
0.49
Estimated
12/13
5.93
27.21
0.48
Total Supply
31.49
33.14
33.62
43.04
43.04
Feed
Total Domestic
Exports
2.70
7.55
16.58
4.70
9.85
17.35
4.39
9.59
18.98
5.00
10.20
23.00
5.00
10.20
23.00
Total Demand
24.13
27.20
28.57
33.20
33.20
7.36
29.43%
5.93
21.80%
5.05
17.68%
9.84
29.64%
9.84
29.64%
(million metric tons)
Ending Stocks
Stocks to Usage
USDA Estimates
2013/14 USDA Projections
February
March
5.05
5.05
37.50
37.50
0.49
0.49
18
FSU-12 Wheat S&D
10/11
25.99
81.07
5.50
11/12
23.61
115.03
8.02
Estimated
12/13
27.03
77.50
7.23
112.56
146.66
111.76
125.12
125.70
Feed
Total Domestic
Exports
23.87
75.06
13.89
27.90
79.87
39.77
20.96
71.80
25.50
23.84
74.38
33.90
23.34
73.88
34.90
Total Demand
88.94
119.64
97.30
108.28
108.78
23.61
26.55%
27.03
22.59%
14.46
14.86%
16.85
15.56%
16.92
15.55%
(million metric tons)
March Report
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Ending Stocks
Stocks to Usage
USDA Estimates
2013/14 USDA Projections
February
March
14.38
14.46
103.83
103.83
6.91
7.41
19
EU-27 Wheat Supply & Demand
March Report
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
10/11
16.58
136.67
4.62
11/12
11.93
138.18
7.37
Estimated
12/13
13.56
133.88
5.26
Total Supply
157.86
157.48
152.70
156.95
Feed
Non-Feed Domestic*
Total Domestic
Exports
52.52
70.33
122.84
23.09
57.50
69.73
127.23
16.69
50.50
69.50
120.00
22.62
Total Demand
145.93
143.92
11.93
8.09%
*calculated
13.56
9.42%
(million metric tons)
Ending Stocks
Stocks to Usage
USDA Estimates
2013/14 USDA Projections
February
March
10.08
10.08
142.87
142.89
4.00
4.00
IAG
13/14
10.08
143.00
4.00
14/15
12.58
146.00
4.00
156.97
157.08
162.58
49.50
69.25
118.75
27.50
48.00
69.25
117.25
29.00
47.00
69.00
116.00
28.50
50.00
72.00
122.00
24.00
142.62
146.25
146.25
144.50
146.00
10.08
7.07%
10.70
7.32%
10.72
7.33%
12.58
8.71%
16.58
11.36%
20
21
22
23
Global Primary Wheat Buyers
Imports
000 MT
11/12
Egypt
11,650
China
2,933
Brazil
7,338
Indonesia
6,457
Algeria
6,500
Japan
6,354
European Union 7,368
Iran
800
Korea, South
5,188
Nigeria
3,931
United States 3,050
Mexico
5,020
Philippines
4,075
Turkey
3,847
Iraq
3,785
Yemen
2,685
Bangladesh
2,016
Saudi Arabia
2,904
Libya
1,561
Afghanistan
2,200
Morocco
3,713
World
149,324
12/13
8,300
2,960
7,358
7,146
6,484
6,598
5,264
6,169
5,439
4,140
3,341
3,826
3,645
3,622
3,949
3,149
2,719
1,921
2,050
1,600
3,833
144,627
Usage
13/14
10,500
8,500
7,400
7,200
6,500
6,200
4,000
4,500
4,500
4,200
4,627
4,300
3,400
3,700
3,200
3,100
3,300
2,700
2,050
2,000
2,000
151,997
11/12
18,600
122,500
11,200
6,250
8,950
6,400
127,234
15,500
5,181
3,551
32,112
7,600
3,650
18,100
6,359
3,100
4,000
4,000
1,672
4,700
8,800
688,852
12/13
18,700
125,000
10,900
6,650
9,450
6,900
120,000
16,400
5,196
3,970
38,269
6,625
3,785
17,500
6,060
3,249
4,000
3,150
2,162
5,740
8,300
686,673
13/14
19,100
125,500
11,400
7,065
9,850
6,800
118,750
17,000
4,744
3,835
34,959
6,500
3,745
17,750
6,400
3,350
4,300
3,300
2,162
6,045
8,700
696,605
Source: USDA, IAG
24
25
CME Corn: CFTC Speculation/Hedge Report
(Futures Net of Options Contracts, Supplemental Report - Adjusted for Index Funds)
Date
12/03/13
12/10/13
12/17/13
12/24/13
12/31/13
01/07/14
01/14/14
01/21/14
01/28/14
02/04/14
02/11/14
02/18/14
02/25/14
03/04/14
Net
Index
Spec
Long
Spec
Short
Net
Spec
Hedge
Long
Hedge
Short
Net
Hedge
Open
Interest
372,877
369,230
363,949
361,890
356,873
357,291
417,608
415,716
414,636
410,117
396,151
398,890
394,714
405,136
192,395
187,743
186,053
185,712
185,701
190,591
192,942
189,737
188,236
211,803
218,465
225,459
247,711
263,594
380,353
353,006
361,463
342,634
349,480
345,196
344,298
336,046
321,303
284,387
255,137
246,236
210,676
171,026
-187,958
-165,263
-175,410
-156,922
-163,779
-154,605
-151,356
-146,309
-133,067
-72,584
-36,672
-20,777
37,035
92,568
398,405
398,581
404,707
390,032
404,574
404,449
409,793
420,582
427,266
414,362
422,182
443,203
400,756
379,479
464,906
485,642
475,003
468,418
466,553
473,047
538,101
545,660
566,333
608,959
634,171
684,199
685,438
734,932
-66,501
-87,061
-70,296
-78,386
-61,979
-68,598
-128,308
-125,078
-139,067
-194,597
-211,989
-240,996
-284,682
-355,453
1,521,559
1,536,489
1,550,962
1,524,435
1,531,779
1,563,886
1,646,323
1,680,673
1,660,475
1,686,048
1,729,744
1,774,313
1,652,554
1,689,545
26
27
CME Wheat: CFTC Speculation/Hedge Report
(Futures Net of Options Contracts, Supplemental Report - Adjusted for Index Funds)
Date
12/03/13
12/10/13
12/17/13
12/24/13
12/31/13
01/07/14
01/14/14
01/21/14
01/28/14
02/04/14
02/11/14
02/18/14
02/25/14
03/04/14
Net
Index
Spec
Long
Spec
Short
Net
Spec
Hedge
Long
Hedge
Short
Net
Hedge
Open
Interest
139,535
136,941
129,035
122,855
122,052
121,826
123,218
121,227
120,099
123,548
124,433
126,718
122,196
124,213
82,060
77,051
76,881
80,104
82,062
84,808
84,305
84,906
83,912
87,603
85,284
81,827
74,992
73,019
181,565
181,047
180,201
182,533
185,876
186,442
174,817
174,635
179,917
177,609
167,831
152,599
129,661
112,625
-99,505
-103,996
-103,320
-102,429
-103,814
-101,634
-90,512
-89,729
-96,005
-90,006
-82,547
-70,772
-54,669
-39,606
87,200
93,237
97,298
100,437
103,314
103,312
95,628
108,720
119,645
116,969
111,969
97,550
78,395
63,352
107,860
106,525
104,448
102,462
105,471
106,532
111,038
123,109
130,716
139,894
142,130
143,568
132,780
135,010
-20,660
-13,288
-7,150
-2,025
-2,157
-3,220
-15,410
-14,389
-11,071
-22,925
-30,161
-46,018
-54,385
-71,658
453,589
465,509
488,060
503,814
500,015
508,765
537,899
572,239
571,942
570,981
569,751
556,645
473,752
452,194
28
29
30
This publication is intended for informational purposes only and the opinions set forth herein should not be viewed as an
offer or solicitation to buy, sell or otherwise trade futures, options or securities. All opinions and information contained in
this document constitute International Agribusiness Group’s (“IAG”) judgment as of the date of this document and are
subject to change without notice. IAG and their respective directors and employees may effect or have effected a
transaction for their own account in the investments referred to in the material contained herein before or after the material
is published to any customer of a Group Company or may give advice to customers which may differ from or be
inconsistent with the information and opinions contained herein. While the information contained herein was obtained
from sources believed to be reliable, no Group Company accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any
inaccuracy herein or from any use of this document or its contents. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or
published in electronic, paper or other form for any purpose without the prior written consent of IAG. This report has been
prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. For
the customers of IAG, this report is produced exclusively for our business and expert clients, it is not for general distribution
and our services are not available to private clients. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The risk of loss associated with futures and options trading can be substantial.
International Agribusiness Group, LLC, 33533 West Twelve Mile Rd, Suite 145, Farmington
Hills, MI, 48331, 800.334.8881.
31

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