Today*s Safer Trucks - Freight and Logistics Council of Western

Report
National Truck Plan:
Modernising the Australian Truck Fleet
Fremantle, 13 June 2014
1
Who is TIC?
• Truck Industry Council, formed 2001
– Previously Commercial Vehicle Committee of the Federal
Chamber of Automotive Industries
• Promotes new trucks as: “Safer, Greener, Essential”
• 9 full members,  17 truck brands (March 2014)
• 3 associate members (engine & component suppliers)
Today’s Safer Trucks
2
Australian Truck Market:
17 TIC Member Truck brands
Today’s Safer Trucks
3
Engine & Major Component
Brands Represented
Today’s Safer Trucks
4
Australian Truck Market (ALL > 3,500kg)
45000
Australian Truck Market by Volume
40000
38131
36622
34732
35000
33499
31673
30745 30645
30000
28654
25000
29393
30100
27858
23544
20517
20000
18708
17923
15000
10000
5000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Today’s Safer Trucks
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
5
Australian Truck Market:
Vehicle Origin by Volume
Source of Australian Trucks
2006 CY
17726
18000
16000
2011 CY
15050
14052
2012 CY
14000
12000
10000
7626
7493
7116
8000
6226
5284
4800
6000
2863
1672
4000
1800
2000
0 134 65
0 84 111
Korea
China
0
Japan
Europe
Australia
Nth America
Total Truck Market: 30,745 Units (2012)
Today’s Safer Trucks
6
60.0%
Australian HD Truck Segment by Source
2006 (%)
50.7% 50.8%
49.1%
50.0%
2011 (%)
2012 (%)
40.0%
Total HD Truck Market:
11,378 Units (2012)
HD definition: All 4x2 and 4x4 over 39t GCM + all Multi-Axle
30.0%
20.0%
NOTE: Australia
total INCLUDES,
all Kenworth,
all Mack, local
IVECO & local
(most) Volvo
19.8%
17.9%
17.2%
19.2%
17.8%
16.1%
15.8%
13.6%
12.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Australia
Japan
Nth America
Today’s Safer Trucks
Europe
7
TIC’s Proactive Stance on
Emissions Performance
• TIC has been working
with government to
develop emissions ADRs
since 2002
• It take over 60 post
2007 trucks to equal
the PM emissions of
just 1 pre 1995 truck
Today’s Safer Trucks
1 x Pre 1995
EQUALS
60 x Post 2007
8
National Truck Plan (NTP) – V4
2014-2022
• Contains proposals that will assist
government achieve its goals for
– environment,
– public health, and
– safety
• Investment allowance restricted to trucks with Gross
Vehicle Mass > 4,500 kg. Matches those trucks that are
eligible for Road User Charge
• Assume Carbon Tax component NOT applied 1 Jul 14
• A document updated 1-2 times/yr to adjust to policy
and market changes
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
9
Plan seeks to address average age:
Today’s technologies to modernise the fleet
Ta bl e 2 . 1
A BS M ot or Veh ic l e C en su s d at a f or 2 0 1 0 , 2 0 1 1 & 2 0 12
Truck type
As at 31 Mar 2010
Light rigid*
Heavy rigid
†
Articulated‡
Non-freight carrying
§
All trucks registered
As at 31 Jan 2011
As at 31 Jan 2012
No.
Average
age (yrs)
No.
Average
age (yrs)
No.
115,843
10.9
119,539
10.9
124,291
10.9
315,435
15.4
318,223
15.5
322,115
15.6
82,436
10.9
85,965
11.3
87,995
11.5
22,533
14.0
22,656
14.1
22,722
14.2
536,247
13.68
546,383
13.77
557,123
13.85
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
Average
age (yrs)
10
Proposed Incentives
• National Truck Plan offers government a 5-year
proposal to modernise the truck fleet
• The proposed incentive is in two parts:
1.
2.
A 15% investment allowance for new trucks meeting the
latest emissions standard
A 25% investment allowance for new trucks exceeding the
current standard, such as alternative fuel vehicles and
hybrids
• A potential funding option is:
1.
A Road User Charge varied by the emissions standard of the
vehicle (Fuel Tax Credit lower for older trucks).
Note: Savings here help pay for the investment allowances
2. This option (outlined in NTP – V4) details an incentive plan
that is revenue neutral (or cash positive) over 5 years
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
11
Tax Credit vs Emissions Standard
(V4 Proposal)
Possible Fuel Tax Credit by Emissions ADR and Financial Year
Pre-ADR70
ADR70/00
14
ADR80/00
ADR80/01 & 80/02
12.643
ADR80/03
12.003
12
ADR80/04 (or >80/03)
11.153
Current System (NOT Including Carbon Tax Effect)
10.303
10
9.453
Tax Credit Amount (Cents per Litre)
8.603
7.753
8
6.903
6.053
6
5.203
4
2
0
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
2020-21
12
Cashflow over 5-Year Period
Savings By Year
Incentive Revenue
Financial
Positive over 5
Year
years
$m
Year 0 2014-15
0.0
Year 1 2015-16
235.5
Year 2 2016-17
338.9
Year 3 2017-18
324.5
Year 4 2018-19
315.2
Year 5 2019-20
292.8
By end Year 5
1,507.0
Net for Year Cumulative
Cost of
Investment
Allowance ($m)
$m
$m
0.0
0
0
250.9
-15.4
-15.4
278.2
60.7
45.2
309.9
14.6
59.9
321.8
-6.6
53.3
298.6
-5.8
47.5
1,459.5
47.5
Net revenue exceeds cost during year 2, and remains ahead.
NOTE: By 2020, HVCI Reform model (Mass-Distance-Location) may be in place
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
13
Cumulative avoided health costs:
Targeted vs BAU scenarios
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
14
required average growth rate
Forecast
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
15
Total Non-Budget benefits
Table 3.6
Benefit Calculations: Adopting an Effective Truck Incentive Plan that
achieves the Targeted Scenario
$Million (2012 Basis)
Comment
Low Range
Estimate
Median Range
Estimate
High Range
Estimate
Avoided Health Costs
881.1
1,881.6
2,949.5
Refer Appendix C for further details
Avoided Fatalities
135.2
157
221
Refer Appendix E for further details.
Benefit Description
Cost of one life lost consistent with Dept of
Finance and Deregulation figure
Reduced CO2 / Carbon Tax
Operator Direct savings
Totals
45.7
53.7
75.5
VeryAppendix
Conservative;
details
E for furtherFuel
Refer
2,510.2
2,815.4
3,786.1
Refer Appendix E for further details
3,572
4,908
7,032
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
economy gains post 2017 >5%
Benefits calculated to 2022 only, but will
continue beyond this date
16
Headline Figures
• Total net revenue gain of $47million in 5 years
Cost savings could continue beyond the 5 years, or can revert
to an alternative HV Charging & road funding model after
2020
• Total non-budget Benefits of between $3.57 billion
and $7.03 billion by 2022
• Fleet renewal accelerated by 102,000 trucks
• Timed to extract maximum benefit from current HV
pricing scheme before any HVCI Reform
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
17
Government and NTP: Common Goals
• Ageing truck fleet and transport workforce
 The NTP aims to significantly reduce the truck fleet age and
with more modern trucks new (younger) drivers will be enticed
to the transport industry
• Improving road transport safety
 The NTP will modernise the national truck fleet bringing new
trucks with the latest safety features (ABS, FUPS, ESC)
• Reduce road transport fuel use and emissions
 The NTP will significantly reduce the number of pre 1995 Trucks
on the road, replacing them with trucks that have the latest
emission technology (Euro 5 and 6) and from 2017 new trucks
will potentially benefit from legislated fuel consumption
improvements in Europe, USA and Japan
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
18
Government and NTP: Common Goals
• Increase productivity
 The NTP will result in a younger truck fleet, with new trucks
offering much higher levels of telematics data. New trucks with
RFS will replace older trucks with non RFS compliant suspension
systems. These features can be used for HML, just one example
of increased productivity gained from a newer truck fleet
• Improved data sharing
 By replacing the number of pre 1995 trucks in the national
truck fleet with new trucks, the NTP will raise the level of truck
telemetry and data gathering, much of this data cannot be
gathered on pre 1995 (non CAN) trucks. This increased level of
truck data could be shared and used by the broader Australian
transport industry and government organisations
National Truck Plan 2014-2022
19
Thank you
Tony McMullan, Chief Executive Officer – Mob. 0427 941281
Mark Hammond, Chief Technical Officer – Mob. 0408 225212
www.truck-industry-council.org
Regular updates and monthly
truck market commentary
National Truck Plan 2014-2022

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