KWALE COUNTY INVESTMENT FORUM 2014 INVESTING IN VALUE CHAINS IN AGRI-INDUSTRIES: The Case of Fruit Value Chains in Kwale County By: ENG. DAVID K. OPIYO KENYA INDUSTRIAL ESTATES LTD OUTLINE 1. Introduction 2. Resource availability 3. Viable value addition products 4. Business profiles 5. Economic and social benefits 6. Required business development services 7. Conclusion INTRODUCTION Agriculture and Business Environment Agro-ecological zones : -Medium agricultural potential : 15% of land -Marginal lands: 18% -Range land (arid and semi arid: 67% Annual precipitation: -900mm – 1500 mm per annum along the coast; -500mm to 600 mm per annum in the hinter land. Climate: -Hot and dry from January to April/May; -June to August is the coolest period of the year; -Short rains from October to December; -Long rains from March/April to July Business Environment -High level of poverty - 74.9% (National poverty level-50%); -Lack of sustainable income from manufacturing, trade and other commercial ventures in the region; -No facilities for post-harvest preservation ; -Very little local value addition to agricultural commodities and fish products; -Main business is in hospitality and tourism sector. Infrastructure: -Roads, electricity and water have lately been improved; -County is well linked to other parts of the country through highways; -Linked to the export market through the port of Mombasa and Moi International airport; -The county lies along the Indian Ocean; -Neighbours Tanzania and Zanzibar. Resource Availability - Fruits Mangoes -Most widespread fruits along the coastal region; -Kwale is one of the largest producers after Tana River ; -Main growing areas are Matuga and Msambweni Sub counties; -Acreage under mango tree is 4135 hectares mostly holdings farms in and around homesteads; -Approximately 500,000 trees which yield an average of 179 kgs per year per tree; -43,196 tonnes sold in the year 2011; 52,574 and 91,390 in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Main species (cultivars): Ngowe, which is the dominant variety estimated at 50%; Boribo/Kipunda/Kimji or indigenous variety that is being gradually replaced due to low yields and biennial harvesting; Apple – popular for its sweetness and amount of flesh; about 20%. New varieties: Haden, Tommy Atkins, Van Dyke, Sensation and Kent - yield between 1,000 and 1,200 fruits per tree Mango Market 50%: Kongowea Market in Mombasa; 20%: exported to Tanzania; 10%: Hotel Industry along the South Coast; 10%: Processors, mainly Milly Processors in Mtwapa, Kilifi County (famous for Picana brand); Balance is sold locally by hawkers or consumed at farm level; Mango fruits fetch a price of Kshs.20 per Kg, i.e. Kshs.5-7 per fruit; Figure goes down drastically during peak harvest periods - as low as 50 cents due its rapid ripening and perishability. Main Challenges Poor market development and weak supply chains leading to exploitation of the farmer; Pest and disease invasion: fruit fly, weevil, powdery mildew, etc; Unreliable rainfall hence the need for irrigation; Low uptake of modern farming practices; farmers’ unable to buy inputs/implements; Poor post-harvest handling; Lack of storage facilities for ripe fruits; Minimal value addition. Citrus Kwale is the largest producer in the coastal region, followed by Taita Taveta; Citrus family includes oranges, lemon, tangerine, grapefruit and lime; Main growing areas are Matuga, Msambweni, Shimba hills and Mwaluphamba; Acreage: 2870 hectares - mostly small holding farms in and around homesteads; High potential within the current growing area and beyond. Approximately 800,000 trees which yield an average of 52 kgs per year per tree; 20,157 tonnes sold in 2011; reduced to 8,398 in 2012; increased to 41,400 in 2013; Market 60%: Kongowea and other markets in Mombasa; 20%: Hotel Industry along the South Coast; 10%: Grocery stores; balance - hawkers or consumed at farm level; Price Kshs. 20-25 per Kg/ Kshs.3-5 per fruit; as low as Kshs. 1 during peak season; Stiff completion from Tanzania - sweeter, juicier variety in Tanga Region. Challenges to production Pests / diseases, poor husbandry practices, old trees that need replacement; Destruction of the crop by wild animals, especially in Shimba Hill area; Lack of technological packages of training and extension services; Poor infrastructure -high transportation costs for off-farm delivery to markets; Exploitation by middlemen due to unorganized market structures; Poor post-harvest handling, lack of storage facilities for ripe fruits; Minimal value addition. Passion Farming of passion fruit is among the fastest growing agricultural activities in Kwale County (KARI report) Growing areas : Msambweni, Shimba Hills, Mwaluphamba and LungaLunga (lower parts); 1million trees in Kwale County which yield an average of 14 kgs per year/tree; Acreage is 887.8 hectares mostly small scales farmers; Can harvest throughout the year using irrigation and modern farming methods; simple to cultivate, inter cropped as a creeper, can thrive even on hedges; KARI has introduced Varieties like Brazil and CF4 – better tolerance to diseases and bugs compared to the local yellow passion fruit;is training farmers in orchard management and fruit harvesting; rapid increase in fruit supply - has doubled in 4 years; 20 collection centers supported by MESPT have changed the supply mode. Market Mostly sold to ALL FRUIT EPZ Limited, Changamwe, Mombasa County. Requires 10,000 MT pa but farmers can only supply 400 tonnes. 12 MT sold between Dec. 2011 and Feb 2012; increased to 44MT in June – Sept 2012 and 85MT in Dec 2012 – Jan 2013. Prices: KShS.6 to Kshs.14/Kg; 70%: Kongowea and other grocery markets in Mombasa and Kwale Counties, 20%: Hotel Industry along the South Coast; balance - processors or consumed at farm; Challenges to production: Similar to other fruits Pineapple The most important variety "Smooth Cayenne" is grown commercially in Kenya for both canning and the fresh market. Not widely grown in Kwale County; found in Msambweni and Matuga Subcounties but have a very high potential ; Only 30.7 hectares most of which are small scale holding in and around homesteads; Approx. 300,000 trees - average of 2.95 kgs per year per tree; 694 MT sold in 2011, increased to 729 and 902 in 2012 and 2013 respectively; Planting to harvesting takes 1 – 2 years; ratoon crop 9 months – 18 months; For canning and puree production, sugar/acid ratio 13 to 16° Brix is suitable attainable when the fruits mature when there is plenty of sunshine. Market 80%: Kongowea Market in Mombasa ; 20%: Hawkers or consumed at farm level. Price: Kshs.20 per Kg, i.e. Kshs. 20 per fruit. Challenges to production : Unreliable rainfall hence the need for irrigation + similar to other fruits. Paw paws Popular fruit in Kwale County; main growing areas are Msambweni, Shimba Hills, Matuga and Lunga Lunga (lower parts); 450,000 trees in the County - average yield of 39 Kgs per year/tree; Acreage: 722 ha mostly small scale farmers; Harvested throughout the year; high potential for more cultivation. Market 60%: Kongowea, other grocery markets in Mombasa and Kwale; 10%: Hotel Industry along the South Coast; Balance is consumed at farm level. Price: Kshs.10/Kg, i.e. Kshs. 10 per fruit. Challenges to production Pests and diseases; poor crop husbandry practices; High transportation costs due to poor infrastructure; Lack of inputs and knowhow; very limited value addition. Others Include: bananas, jack fruits, guavas, tomatoes and water melons; Currently grown on a very small scale, mainly as subsistence crops; combined annual yield 2,000MT Kshs. 30,000,000; High potential for commercial production, especially guavas, tomatoes and water melons - in high demand due to their medicinal value and nutrients; Establishment of processing factories – like a tomato paste plant - would instantly catalyze the crop production. Summary Fruits Growing Regions CITRUS (oranges, lemons and tangerine) MANGO Msambweni Matuga Shimba Hills Mwaluphamba Matuga Msambweni Kinango (very rarely) Msambweni Shimba hills Mwaluphamba Lungalunga (lower part of Lunga Lungaalong the beach) Matuga Msambweni PASSION PINEAPPLE PAWPAWS OTHERS Msambweni Lungalunga Shimba hills Matuga Approx. No. of Trees 797,222 Yield (Tonnes) Per Year 2012 2013 2014 Income (Ksh.M) Potential Yield (T) 51.93 Price (Ksh/ Kg) 20 8,398 41,400 828 100,000 510,493 52,574 91,390 179 15 1,370.85 300,000 986,444 5,740 14,108 14.3 20 282.16 50,000 307,000 729 908 2.95 20 18.16 5,000 451,250 8,326 17,597 38.99 10 175.97 50,000 30,000 20,000 2000 MAIN FRUITS IN KWALE 350,000 300,000 PRODUCTION 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 CITRUS MANGO PASSION PINEAPPLE PAWPAWS FRUITS current production (MT) potential production (MT) OTHERS Viable Value Addition Products Fruit Juice Liquid that is naturally contained in the fruit; Mechanically extracted and flavored but retains its natural quality; Most popular juices are made from mangos, citrus, paw paws, pineapple, tomatoes, guavas, apples, pitches and strawberries; Orange juice is most recommended for Kwale with option to produce mango, passion, tomatoes and guava juices as alternative products during low citrus season. Reason: presently no large scale processors of orange juice in the Coast Region. Mango, passion factories available. Fruit Puree Made by boiling peeled fruit and adding sugar and starch to produce a sweet a jelly; Can be consumed directly or incorporated in making juice, jam and squash; Is locally popular, mainly as a sweetener in oriental and Arabic dishes; Pineapple or mango puree added to cake makes it soft, sweet and yummy; Also a great baby food. Can also be topped on desserts, cookies or to the bowl of cereals. Huge export demand in the Middle-East and Europe. Fruit Jam/Tomato Paste Thick mixture of fruits, pectin and sugar; boiled gently but quickly until the fruit is soft and has an organic shape; Most fruits can produce jam but pineapple, mango, strawberry and plum jams are the most common and popular brands; Marmalade is a variety of jam made from citrus fruit, adding peels to bring a bitter-sweet flavor. Tomato paste Thick paste made by cooking tomatoes for several hours to reduce moisture, straining them to remove the seeds and skin, and cooking them again to reduce them to a thick, rich concentrate; Used as a flavor /gravy on dry fried food like potato chips, chicken, rice, bananas grilled beef and fish. Other Products Raw Material Benefits Animal Feeds Fruit fibre and other wastes Linkage to livestock farming Biogas Fruit fibre and other wastes Green energy Non-nutrient compounds Citrus peels Medicinal value Dietary fiber or NSP (nonsoluble polysaccharides) like hemi-cellulose, pectin, tannins and gums Help prevent constipation by reducing gastrointestinal time Increase the bulk to food. Juice Location Annual Output (MT ‘000) producers in Pulp the Coast Region Mango Market Citru Passion Others Total (mango, juice s Juice (MT ‘ passion, Juice 000) citrus) All fruits EPZ Changa 30,000 0 0 0 30,000 Export, mwe Local EPZ Refiner s Milly Mtwapa, processors Kilifi Malindi Malindi 7,000 4,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 15,000 Export, local 3,000 0 0 0 0 Farmers Co- 3,000 Local refiners op. Coast Hola 0 1,500 0 0 Development ) Kilifi 5,000 0 0 0 2,000 (proposed) Over 20 2,000 Local (tomato Authority ICDC project 500 7,000 Export, local All over 0 200 300 200 300 1,000 Local Current Juice Production 2,300 1,200 3,800 5,700 Pulp (mango, passion, citrus) Mango juice Citrus Juice 45,000 Passion Juice Others Juice Demand Structure Type of Consumer Number Weekly Demand Est. (M ltrs) Large Supermarkets ( e.g. Annual Demand (M ltrs) 40 0.4 20.8 78 0.12 6.3 0.18 9.4 43 0.02 1.04 Other Hotels & Restaurants 300 0.05 2.6 Other institutions 150 0.02 1.04 Nakumatt, Uchumi, Naivas, Budget, Tuskeys) Medium size supermarkets and grocery stores Retail shops 3,000 Tourist Hotels (Hospitals, Colleges, Schools ) Export to Tanzania Total 10 - 51.18 Proportion of Demand by Consumer Annual Demand (Million ltrs) 25 20.8 20 AMOUNT 15 10 10 9.4 6.3 5 2.6 1.04 1.04 Tourist Hotels Other institutions 0 Supermarkets Export to Tanzania Retail shops Grocery stores Restaurants TYPE OF CONSUMER Market for other products Demand for fruit jam, puree and tomato paste is closely related to that of juices; Prominent exporters can take 20,000 MT of puree and jam/marmalade pa for the MiddleEast and European market; Market Challenges and Constraints Seasonality of the crops might impede continuous production; facility required for preservation of the raw materials during off season. Food production industry - protracted licensing and regulation processing, especially regarding environmental and public health concerns. Marketing Strategy Direct marketing of bottled juice and tomato paste to supermarkets, retailers, hotels, institutions, etc; Ex-factory sale of juices, tomato paste and compost manure; Sub-contracted supply of concentrate to large juice processing factories; Targeting the export market for the bulk of puree; Ensuring that products are standardized, branded and well packaged to meet international standards; Use of website, media and word of mouth to advertise the products. Pricing Strategies Consider terms of sale - credit sales, wholesale vs. retail, distance to market and type of packaging. Adopt penetration pricing as an entry strategy - slightly lower than the average industry prices. SUPPLY CHAIN Raw Material Supply Chain Key success factor for fruit projects - over-ripe, rotten fruits are discarded as waste at considerable loss to the business; delays in supply cause factory down time. Recommended supply chain: -farmers deliver to collection centers; picked by factory; -Co-ops manage the collection centers and pay the farmers; -Co-ops are contracted suppliers to the factories. Other inputs - sugar, starch and packaging material - procured in sufficient quantities to last for approximately one month. Transportation of Raw Materials Most efficient and currently popular - vehicle leasing. Frees the company from maintenance, service and insurance costs. It is thus recommended to lease transport but have one (1) 7 - ton lorry as fallback. Product Supply Chain Distributors, wholesalers and retailers; Exporter to the export market (for puree); Factory gate sales for manure and other by-products. Business Profiles: 1. Juice Production Reception of goods Sorting Washing Peeling Splitting and removal of core Blending Pulping Filtering Dispatch Labeling and packing into cartons Packaging into bottles Cooling Pasteurizing Proposed Factory site Local leaders and the business community prefer plant to be located along the Mombasa – Lunga Lunga Highway, i.e., between Msambweni and Matuga - easy access to market; -good transport infrastructure. County Integrated Development Plan (CIDP) recommends Kikoneni/Dzombo in Lunga Lunga Constituency. Other factor to consider is closeness to the source of raw materials Shimba Hills produces the largest quantity of citrus fruit. At least 3 acres of land is required; necessary infrastructure must be in place. Organizational Structure Board of Directors Managing Director Chief Finance Officer Human Resource Manager Adm. Asst. Accountant Clerks/ Storekeepers Drivers Production Manager Food Technologist Security Technicians Chemist Lab Staff Prod. Supervisor Operators Estimated Investment (5,000 tons pa) Item Costs Land and building 25,000,000 Plant & equipment 70,000,000 Other assets 6,000,000 Working capital 5,000,000 Start-up costs 2,000,000 Total 108,000,000 Financing Plan County government: land, construction of factory shed, provision of infrastructure; Farmers co-operatives: establish fruit collection centers; in future plans to carry out semi-processing (pulping) in those centers; Co-operatives to raise funds from members for initial costs and working capital; private investors: plant, working capital and other fixed assets Shareholder Percentage shareholding Items financed Kwale County /Cooperatives 30% Land & building Start-up costs Working Capital Total Plant & Equipment Private Investors 70% Other assets Total Grand total Amount (Kshs) 25,000,000 2,000,000 5,000,000 32,000,000 70,000,000 6,000,000 76,000,000 108,000,000 Projected Income Statement Indicator IRR (10 years) ROI 3rd year Return on Equity year BEP 3rd year Rate 9% 18% 3rd 22% Comparison to market Treasury bonds: 5-6% Fixed deposit: 7 - 8% Unit trust rate: 8 -10% 32% Net profit after tax 3rd Kshs. 24,062,960 year Industry average: 30 – 50% of capacity Shows good profitability 40000000 35000000 30000000 25000000 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 2. Fruit Puree Particulars 1st Year 2nd 3rd Year 4th Year 5th year Year Capacity 40% Utilization Raw Material Input (tons) Puree production (tons) 10,000 50% 12,500 60% 70% 80% 15,000 17,500 20,000 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 By-products (manure) (tons) Summary of Investment Item Costs Land and building 25,000,000 Plant & equipment 65,500,000 Other assets Working capital Start-up costs Total 6,000,000 11,800,000 2,600,000 110,900,000 Proposed Business Model Ownership Structure Private investors to take full ownership of the project – Kshs. 110.9M; Farmers to form cooperatives for supply of raw materials; County Government to extend necessary support to the business: infrastructure, ease of licensing, business development services to farmers in order to increase crop yield. Proposed Factory Site Msambweni is the most suitable and convenient location: -Easy access to market; -Good transport infrastructure, especially to collect pineapples and mangoes beyond the boundaries of Kwale County. -Availability of land (at least 3 acres) and necessary infrastructure will be an important consideration. Main Markets Export markets in the Middle East and Europe; Supermarkets and hotels in Kenya and neighboring countries; Ex-factory sale of compost manure to farmers; Projected Income Statement Indicator Rate IRR (10 years) 9% ROI 3rd year 20% Return on Equity 3rd 27% year BEP 3rd year 27% Comparison to market Treasury bonds: 5-6% Fixed deposit: 7 - 8% Unit trust rate: 8 -10% Net profit after tax 3rd Kshs. 29,905,274 year Industry average: 30 – 50% of capacity Shows good profitability 60,000,000.00 50,000,000.00 40,000,000.00 30,000,000.00 Series1 20,000,000.00 10,000,000.00 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 3. Fruit Jam/Tomato Paste Production Program Particulars Capacity Utilization Raw 4th Year 5th year 40% 50% 60% 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,500 1,900 2,300 2,600 3,000 70% 80% Material Input (tons) Jam 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year production (tons) By-products (manure) (tons) Process flow chart CLEANING PULPING DE-SEEDING CRUSHING COOKING MIXING OF PECTIN & SUGAR COOLING &PACKAGING DISPATCH Summary of Investment Item Costs (KES) Land and building 16,000,000 Plant & equipment 38,500,000 Other assets 1,000,000 Working capital 9,000,000 Start-up costs 1,500,000 Total 66,000,000 Proposed Ownership Structure Farmers form a cooperative society which will own and manage the project; Raise 20% of investment through shares; balance financed through a medium-term loan, preferably from the Co-op. Bank of Kenya; County government could also inject funds to support farmers. Optional; County Government will also extend necessary support to the business. Proposed Factory Site Most suitable and convenient location is Ukunda town: Easy access to the beach hotels in Diani which are the main local consumers; Good transport infrastructure ensures easy linkage to Mombasa and the up- country market; Direct link to Northern Tanzania where there is a good market for the product. Projected Income Statement Indicator Rate IRR (10 years) 14% ROI 3rd year 31% Return on Equity 3rd 132% year BEP 3rd year 28% Net profit after tax 3rd Kshs. 17,870,775 year Comparison to market Treasury bonds: 5-6% Fixed deposit: 7 - 8% Unit trust rate: 8 -10% Industry average: 30 – 50% of capacity Shows good profitability ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BENEFITS Economic Indicators a. Wealth creation: Increased income from fruit farming since there will be a ready market Dividends from shares in the investments; Income from direct and indirect employment; BDS providers will be engaged; Linkage to transporters, wholesalers and retailers; Providers of technical services e.g. maintenance, plumbers etc. b. Tax revenue: National and County government will benefit from tax revenues, licenses and other levies. c. Value addition: potential to add value by over 50% to raw fruits. d. Employment creation: approximately 100 direct jobs and over 1,000 indirect employment e. Export potential: high potential for export to the international markets and East African region especially Tanzania. Social Benefits Improved standard of living for local farmers Strengthening the cooperative movement in the region Reduced insecurity due to gainful employment of idle youth Employment opportunities for women IMPLEMENTATION PLAN Activity Feasibility Study Raising Equity Growing of fruits Construction Procuring & Installing plants Training Trial/Commissionin g of projects Jul- Oct- Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Sep Dec ‘15 ‘15 ‘14 ‘14 ‘15 ‘15 REQUIRED BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT SERVICES BDS Activity Enhanced agricultural Local extension including Target beneficiary farmers services cooperative societies provision of essential farm inputs Entrepreneurship Expected benefits and Right fruit varieties for the proposed products Improved land utilization Improved living standard and Cooperatives and small scale management training enterprises Better yield Better business management Inculcation of entrepreneurial culture among locals Governance and Cooperative management Job creation Better managed cooperatives and businesses leadership skills and SMEs Strong cooperative movement Technical skills training Youth and women Enhanced human resource capacity; Improved product quality; Job creation Marketing and accessing Cooperatives, public procurement and Women SMEs, Youth Improved market access CONCLUSION Proposed business models are financially viable and also economically/socially beneficial to the local community and the country as a whole towards the attainment of Vision 2030; It is possible to implement all the proposed projects within a period 12 to 18 months as outlined in the implementation plan above; The investors will have the latitude to vary plant capacities, technology and product range including integrating all the products in one factory. Potential investors are therefore invited to: Consider the business proposals contained in this report; Identify suitable investment opportunities therefrom. THE END THANK YOU.