Kenya - The Millennium Project

Report
Kenyan Node
Katindi Sivi Njonjo
About IEA
Budget Information Programme
 Focuses on analysing the national
budget
What is it?
• Think tank
• Doing policy analysis and
research
• It is non partisan…no political
or any party affiliation
• It is a membership
organization
Regulation programme
 Focuses on the legal framework
governing economic activity
Trade Information Programme
 Focuses on regional and international
trade relations
Futures Programme
 Focuses on Utilization of futures
methodologies for research and policy
analysis
Kenyan Node
Goals for 2011
• Research
• Scenarios
Building
• Policy Advocacy
Future Effect of Kenya’s Youth
Bulge
Mazingira scenarios
Research into Kenya’s Youth Bulge
•
Documented the state of youth in
Kenya
•
Compiling a research compendium
with the following papers:
1.
Demographics
2.
Health
3.
Education
4.
Political participation
5.
Family
6.
Un/employment
7.
ICT and international Migration
8.
Crime
9.
Vigilantism
10. Entertainment
11. Sports
•
Conducting countrywide scenarios
conversations
Main Message 1: Future Effects of Kenya’s Youth
Bulge
1970
2010
2030
2050
Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, UN
• Kenya’s population is increasing by 1M annually
• Though women are giving birth later, to fewer children and spacing
them more
• Demographic structure is changing and has various implications of
Kenya’s political, economic and social stability
• Phenomenon will create a youth bulge in 10 years
Future Implications
Political implications
1. Demographic trends are
likely to exacerbate youth
violence (through gangs,
vigilante groupings and
militia groupings)
Economic Implications
1. Demographics trends will trigger low
economic performance av. 3.6% due to
high dependency
2. Exacerbate unemployment beyond the
current 25% rate
3. High cost of living and especially high
food prices is causing major
disillusionment and will be an eventual
trigger of violence
Social implications
1. Overpopulation and overcrowding (2010 - 40M, 2030 – 60M)
2. High rural – urban migration
3. Rapid Urbanization & increased slums and pollution
4. Increase in resource conflicts
5. High crime rates
Main Message 2: Future Effects of Kenya’s
Reproductive Health
• Dangerous trends due to risky sexual behavior
hence:
1. High teenage pregnancies (1 out of 4 children born in
Kenya are unplanned for) thus contributing to high
pop
2. Rising HIV and STI infection rates and risk having
high mortality rates of Kenya’s workforce in the future
% of teenagers who have began child
bearing
36.2
26.2
16.5
9.4
2.1
15
16
17
Age
18
19
Achievements
1.Presented youth facts to over 1000 multistakeholders
2.Influenced some UN agencies programming.
They are revising their interventions (poured a
lot of money in rural areas whereas in some
cases, the need is in urban areas or slums)
3.Young people are tokenized and manipulated.
This work is passing the message that this is
not sustainable leading to prioritization of youth
issues religious leaders, donors and policy
makers (especially in preparation to next years
elections)
4.Influenced the prime ministers youth round
table and employment summit
5.Popularizing issues of demographics and
reproductive health for political stability
Dissemination Strategy
1. Using social media to
popularize the work among the
youth mainly facebook and
twitter
2. Using dramaturgy to encourage
creativity in scenarios building
among youth
3. Recording all conversations and
will be producing a
documentary of the stories
Possible youth scenarios in Kenya
• Held 9 scenarios
workshops in Kenya’s
provinces (about 200
young people)
?
Technology
Main driving forces
• All teams chose
governance (public
participation,
constitutionalism, political
leadership)
• 5 chose technology,
• 2 chose unemployment,
2 chose access to
relevant and quality
education
• 1 chose globalization
• 1 chose the cost of living
• 1 chose the land tenure
system.
?
Governance
?
?
Policy Proposals
• Policies should be
geared towards
achieving a favorable
age structure
i.e. A large proportion of
the population
comprised of workingage adults, with
smaller proportions
and slower growth of
dependent populations
children and older
adults
Strategy
1. Adequate Investment in
Reproductive Health i.e.
reduce the unmet need for
family planning
2. Improve education of the
girl child which has a
direct co-relation with
early marriages, child and
maternal mortality rates
etc
3. Adequate and Relevant
Education to prepare
youth for meaningful
employment
4. Urbanization policies
Environmental scenarios
• Could not get funding because
of donor focus on reform
programmes
1.Implementing the new
constitution
2.TJRC
3.Electoral reforms
• ILRI conducting a big
environmental study
• Oxford contacts trying to link me
up with the scenarios phase of
the project
• I may need to synergize with
the if there is room.
Asante Sana!

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