7-RS-Platou-Riggflyt..

Report
The North Sea AHTS market
15th of May
Rigg-Flytt i praksis, Bergen
North Sea AHTS spot-rates
Weekly
Annual averages
GBP'000
140
120
120
100
100
GBP '000
70
Thousands
GBP '000
140
60
50
80
80
40
60
60
30
40
40
20
20
20
10
-
1
6
11
16
2011
21
26
31
2012
36
41
2013
46
51
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
16,000+ BHP
10-15,999 BHP
2
North-Sea term rates: AHTS and PSV
GBP '000
GBP '000
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
02
03
04
10-15,999 BHP
05
06
07
08
16-19,999 BHP
09
10
11
12
20,000+ BHP
3
Total North Sea AHTS utilisation currently at low levels
Supply, demand and utilisation rate: AHTS
100
150
90
140
80
130
70
120
110
50
100
40
90
30
20
80
10
70
0
60
Utilisation Rate
Vessels
60
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
13 (Mar)
Demand
Supply
Utilisation
4
Smaller vessels have been squeezed out of the North Sea market
AHTS demand by size category (bhp)
100
90
80
70
Vessels
60
50
40
30
20
10
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Demand >=16,000 bhp
Demand 12-15,999 bhp
Demand <12000 bhp
5
Servicing rigs main driver of AHTS demand – North Sea (2011-12)
Only vessels >12,000 bhp included
Term work (2011-12)
Spot work (1496 fixtures)
OTHER
4%
OTHER MOORING
TOW PRELAY
2%
2%
3%
4%
CONSTRUCTION
4%
CONSTRUCTION
19%
MISC FPSO
6%
CONTINGENCY
40%
CR
8%
RM/CR
37%
RM
71%
6
Dayrates correlated with size and work type (>12,000bhp)
Average spot rate (2011-12) by work type
Average of GBP
Main Scope
CR
TOW
MOORING
MISC FPSO
CONSTRUCTION
RM
PRELAY
Average
BP Size
<180
180-219 220-329 >=330 Average
13,886
13,292
15,176 18,339
14,522
11,263
18,012
32,302
19,845
14,136
28,249 14,199
23,132
19,140
14,668
28,001
24,534
17,460
15,534
39,023
26,409
20,356
22,710
30,499 32,362
26,867
33,502 39,864
36,719
18,910
20,751
28,924 33,697
25,429
7
North-Sea: Rig moves driving spot work
Only vessels >12,000 bhp included
Spot fixtures vs spot work
300
40
35
250
30
200
150
20
Vessels
Fixtures
25
15
100
10
50
5
0
2007-1
2008-1
2009-1
RM
2010-1
OTHER
2011-1
CR
2012-1
Spot work
8
North-Sea rigs: Supply, demand and utilization
Other North-Sea - Jackup
240%
220%
200%
160%
Jackups
6
140%
4
120%
100%
2
80%
60%
-
40%
40
180%
35
160%
30
10
80%
5
60%
-
40%
25
200%
35
180%
30
160%
25
140%
20
15
10
120%
100%
5
80%
0
60%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Demand
Active supply
Total supply
Active utilization
20
Other North-Sea: Floater
200%
180%
160%
140%
120%
15
10
Utilization
Floaters
30
100%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Demand
Active supply
Total supply
Active utilization
Floaters
35
Norway - Floater
120%
20
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Demand
Active supply
Total supply
Active utilization
40
140%
25
15
Utilization
Jackups
180%
200%
100%
80%
5
60%
-
40%
Utilization
8
45
Utilization
Norway - Jackup
10
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Demand
Active supply
Total supply
Active utilization
9
Market Drivers – Jackup Activity Norway
2013
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
ROWAN GORILLA 6 - 4Q (CONOCOPHILLIPS)
ROWAN NORWAY - CONOCOPHILLIPS
MAERSK GIANT - DONG/TALISMAN/DET NORSKE/REPSOL/CENTRICA
MAERSK GUARDIAN - LUNDIN
MAERSK REACHER - BP
WEST EPSILON - STATOIL
MAERSK INSPIRER - STATOIL
MAERSK GALLANT - CONOCOPHILLIPS
WEST ELARA - STATOIL
MAERSK INNOVATOR - CONOCOPHILLIPS
2014
MAERSK INTERCEPTOR - Q4 (DET NORSKE)
MAERSK INTREPID - 3Q (TOTAL)
ROWAN STAVANGER - 3Q (LUNDIN)
WEST LINUS - 1Q (CONOCOPHILLIPS)
ROWAN VIKING - 3Q (LUNDIN)
ROWAN GORILLA 6
ROWAN NORWA
MAERSK GIANT
MAERSK GUARDIAN
MAERSK REACHER
WEST EPSILON
MAERSK INSPIRER
MAERSK GALLANT
WEST ELARA
MAERSK INNOVATOR
IN NORWAY
ENTERING INTO A CONTRACT IN NORWAY
2015
MAERSK XL ENHANCED 3 - 2Q (STATOIL)
MAERSK INTERCEPTOR
MAERSK INTREPID
ROWAN STAVANGER
WEST LINUS
ROWAN VIKING
ROWAN GORILLA 7
ROWAN NORWA
MAERSK GIANT
MAERSK GUARDIAN
MAERSK REACHER
WEST EPSILON
MAERSK INSPIRER
MAERSK GALLANT
WEST ELARA
MAERSK INNOVATOR
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
AVAILABLE AoC RIG
•Mostly large jackups (~CJ70) contribute to growth
•Large jackups require also larger AHTS vessels
10
Market Drivers – Floater Activity Norway
2013
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
SS EIRIK RAUDE - DP/CM - POTENTIAL 4Q – NEXT WEST AFRICA 1 YEAR
SS ISLAND INNOVATOR - DP/CM - 2Q (LUNDIN)
SS LEIV EIRIKSSON - DP/CM - 1Q (RIG MGT. NORWAY)
SS COSLINNOVATOR - DP/CM - STATOIL
SS COSLPROMOTER -DP/CM - STATOIL
SS WEST HERCULES - DP/CM - STATOIL
DS WEST NAVIGATOR - DP/CM - SHELL
SS COSL PIONEER - DP/CM - STATOIL
SS OCEAN VANGUARD - CM - STATOIL
SS DS BREDFORD DOLPHIN - CM - LUNDIN
SS TRANSOCEAN WINNER - CM - LUNDIN/MARATHON
SS STENA DON - DP - STATOIL
SS BORGLAND DOLPHIN - CM - RIG MGT NORWAY/STATOIL
SS BIDEFORD DOLPHIN - CM - STATOIL
SS POLAR PIONEER - CM - BP
SS SCARABEO 5 - DP/CM - STATOIL
SS TRANSOCEAN ARCTIC - CM - RIG MGT NORWAY
SS TRANSOCEAN SEARCHER - CM - STATOIL/BG
SS TRANSOCEAN BARENTS - DP/CM - DET NORSKE
SS DEEPSEA ATLANTIC - DP/CM - STATOIL
SS WEST ALPHA - CM - STATOIL/EXXONMOBIL
SS TRANSOCEAN LEADER - CM - STATOIL
SS TRANSOCEAN SPITSBERGEN - DP/CM - STATOIL
SS DEEPSEA BERGEN - CM - STATOIL
SS WEST VENTURE - DP/CM - STATOIL
SS SONGA TRYM - CM - STATOIL
SS SONGA DELTA - CM - STATOIL
SS SONGA DEE - CM - STATOIL
SS SCARABEO 8 - DP/CM - ENI
IN NORWAY
2014
SS HENRY GOODRICH - CM - POTENTIAL 3Q
SS EIRIK RAUDE - DP/CM - POTENTIAL
SS SONGA EQUINOX - DP/CM - JULY (STATOIL)
SS ISLAND INNOVATOR - DP/CM
SS LEIV EIRIKSSON - DP/CM
SS COSLINNOVATOR -DP/CM
SS COSLPROMOTER -DP/CM
SS WEST HERCULES - DP/CM
DS WEST NAVIGATOR - DP/CM
SS COSL PIONEER - DP/CM
SS OCEAN VANGUARD - CM
SS DS BREDFORD DOLPHIN - CM - AGR GROUP
SS TRANSOCEAN WINNER - CM - MARATHON
SS STENA DON - DP
SS BORGLAND DOLPHIN - CM
SS BIDEFORD DOLPHIN - CM
SS POLAR PIONEER - CM - STATOIL
SS SCARABEO 5 - DP/CM
SS TRANSOCEAN ARCTIC - CM
SS TRANSOCEAN SEARCHER - CM - BG
SS TRANSOCEAN BARENTS - DP/CM
SS DEEPSEA ATLANTIC - DP/CM
SS WEST ALPHA - CM - EXXONMOBIL
SS TRANSOCEAN LEADER - CM
SS TRANSOCEAN SPITSBERGEN - DP/CM
SS DEEPSEA BERGEN - CM
SS WEST VENTURE - DP/CM
SS SONGA TRYM - CM
SS SONGA DELTA - CM
SS SONGA DEE - CM
SS SCARABEO 8 - DP/CM
2015
SS WEST PHOENIX - DP - POTENTIAL 2Q
SS WEST RIGEL - DP/CM - POTENTIAL 1Q
SS COSLPROSPECTOR - DP/CM - POTENTIAL 1Q
SS HENRY GOODRICH - CM - POTENTIAL
SS EIRIK RAUDE - DP/CM - POTENTIAL
SS SONGA ENABLER - DP/CM - 3Q (STATOIL)
SS SONGA EENCOURAGE - DP/CM - 2Q (STATOIL)
SS SONGA ENDURANCE - DP/CM - 1Q (STATOIL)
SS SONGA EQUINOX - DP/CM
SS ISLAND INNOVATOR - DP/CM
SS LEIV EIRIKSSON - DP/CM
SS COSLINNOVATOR -DP/CM
SS COSLPROMOTER -DP/CM
SS WEST HERCULES - DP/CM
DS WEST NAVIGATOR - DP/CM
SS COSL PIONEER - DP/CM
SS OCEAN VANGUARD - CM
SS DS BREDFORD DOLPHIN - CM
SS TRANSOCEAN WINNER - CM
SS STENA DON - DP
SS BORGLAND DOLPHIN - CM
SS BIDEFORD DOLPHIN - CM
SS POLAR PIONEER - CM
SS SCARABEO 5 - DP/CM
SS TRANSOCEAN ARCTIC - CM
SS TRANSOCEAN SEARCHER - CM
SS TRANSOCEAN BARENTS - DP/CM
SS DEEPSEA ATLANTIC - DP/CM
SS WEST ALPHA - CM
SS TRANSOCEAN LEADER - CM
SS TRANSOCEAN SPITSBERGEN - DP/CM
SS DEEPSEA BERGEN - CM
SS WEST VENTURE - DP/CM
SS SONGA TRYM - CM
SS SONGA DELTA - CM
SS SONGA DEE - CM
SS SCARABEO 8 - DP/CM
ENTERING INTO A CONTRACT IN NORWAY
37
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
AVAILABLE AoC RIG
•Only newbuilds and modern units are entering the NCS
•The majority of these semi-submersibles are both CM and DP
11
Other demand – Prelay, Mooring, Floating Production, etc
Platforms (existing and expected)
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
30
25
20
Platforms
Days
Other demand (based on spot fixtures)
15
10
5
-
0
2007-1
2008-1
2009-1
2010-1
2011-1
2012-1
PRELAY
CONSTRUCTION
MOORING
MISC FPSO
TRENCHING
TOW
OTHER
4Q MA
0
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
Fixed
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Floating
Source:Infield
12
Large untapped potential in Arctic/Harsh Environment areas
Oil reserves
Gas reserves
90
Wells Drilled North Sea (UK and Norway)
Wells
Exploration
3249
Appraisal
1907
Development
8332
Total
13488
1,200
Undiscovered
80
70
Discovered, not Onstream
1,000
Onstream
800
50
TCF
BNBBL
60
600
40
30
400
20
200
10
-
0
Source:Infield, USGS, NPD, DE&C, RS Platou
13
North-Sea AHTS Vessel Demand Drivers (12,000+bhp) - Summary
70
60
Vessels
50
40
30
20
10
99
00
01
02
Estimated Core demand
03
04
05
06
Greenland + Other
07
08
CR
09
10
11
Actual demand
12
13
14
15
Core demand
14
Ordering activity of AHTS vessels (>12,000bhp)
by region of build
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
Vessels
Vessels
by size category
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
<180
2005
180-219
2006
2007
220-329
2008
>=330
2009
2010
2011
2012
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Europe
2006
Asia
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Other
15
Existing fleet and orderbook
April 2013
EXIST.FLEET
UNITS
AHTS (BHP)
1,145
214
320
117
68
1,864
4-7,999
8-9,999
10-15,999
16-19,999
20,000+
TOTAL
Norway orderbook
ON ORDER
Delivered
2013
2013
2014
2015+
89
6
21
14
12
142
12
1
5
5
2
25
67
5
15
10
7
104
22
1
4
4
5
36
0
0
2
0
0
2
4
1
2
2
0
ON ORDER IN %
OF EXIST.FLEET
7.8
2.8
6.6
12.0
17.6
7.6
B ra zil
C hina
India
Indo ne s ia
M a la ys ia
N o rwa y
A HTS 4-7,999 B HP
0
55
0
15
0
0
S inga po re Unit e d S t a t e s O t he rs
8
0
8
T o tal
86
A HTS 8-9,999 B HP
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
4
A HTS 10-15,999 B HP
0
5
0
9
0
0
2
1
4
21
A HTS 16-19,999 B HP
0
3
0
0
0
0
8
4
1
16
A HTS 20,000+ B HP
3
1
2
0
0
5
0
1
1
13
A H T S T o tal
3
65
3
25
0
5
19
6
14
14 0
• AHTS vessels on order in % of existing fleet (worldwide) is higher in the larger AHTS categories.
• Many of the units in the >16,000 bhp size category are built in Asia.
16
The North Sea AHTS fleet – in service vessels
Only vessels >12,000 bhp included, March 2013
Age profile by country of build: Norwegian Continental Shelf
Age profile by country of build: Other North-Sea
9
5
8
7
4
3
5
Vessels
Vessels
6
4
2
3
2
1
1
0
0
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
Norway
96
Spain
98
00
Chile
02
04
06
08
10
12
82
84
86
Norway
88
Spain
90
92
Denmark
94
96
Germany
98
00
UK
02
04
Netherlands
06
08
10
12
Vietnam
17
Can “North Sea” AHTS vessels return home?
North-Sea AHTS fleet changes
Location of Norwegian built tonnage (blt >2000)
60
>=330
50
220-329
180-219
<180
Vessels
40
?
30
20
10
0
N. AMERICA
FAR EAST
MED
S&W AFRICA AUSTRALASIA S. AMERICA
NORTH SEA
18
North Sea AHTS fleet: Supply, demand and utilization rate
Only vessels >12,000 bhp included
Supply, demand, utilization rate
Utilization rate vs spot-rates*
80
70,000
170%
160%
70
60,000
150%
60
07
08
140%
06
50,000
15
130%
50
40
110%
100%
30
40,000
GBP
Vessels
120%
11
13
30,000
90%
20
80%
14
12
10
20,000
09
70%
10
60%
0
50%
98
99
00
01
Supply (>12,000bhp)
02
03
04
05
06
07
Core demand + Other*
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Util. core demand + Other*
15
10,000
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
*Spot-rates – as quoted in Platou Supply Monthly for 16,000+bhp
19
Conclusions/Summary
• AHTS demand in the North-Sea is currently growing as a consequence of higher offshore activity as a result
of more lenient taxes on the NCS (since 2005), new basins opening for exploration and development,
significant discoveries in even mature basins and a generally favourable investment climate in the oil and
gas industry (oil prices are still very much elevated).
• Large AHTS demand is largely driven by rig activity and especially the floaters. There has been extensive
discussions whether the new floaters, which generally have both DP and Conventionally Mooring, will
require the same AHTS intensity. Generally speaking we see that conventionally moored floaters use 3-4
vessels, while DP/CM units require 2-3 vessels.
• North-Sea AHTS vessels are likely to receive a significant boost in demand from new basins opening up in
the Arctic. Exploration, development and production has already started in the Barents Sea and
exploration has started in Greenland. The Greenland campaign of Cairn gave a significant boost to demand
in 2010/11 and this is likely to continue in 2014+ when Cairn returns with Statoil and other oil companies
follow in their footsteps.
• Very few orders of North-Sea specified AHTS tonnage have been made in recent years. Earnings have been
moderate and capital increasingly difficult to get hold of, thus restraining investments. This will lead to very
little supply growth the next years.
• The North-Sea fleet utilization is therefore likely to have passed its cyclical low (although 2013 is still
expected to be a challenging year) and will start to climb in 2014/15. Spot-rates/Term-rates are likely to
follow.
20
OSLO
ABERDEEN /
LONDON
MOSCOW
COPENHAGEN
GENEVA
NEW YORK
SHANGHAI
ATHENS
ISTANBUL
HOUSTON
ACCRA
SINGAPORE
CAPE TOWN
RIO
SYDNEY

similar documents