Question 6 Exemplar - Education Scotland

Report
6 (a) Outline the strengths and weaknesses of this
source for a researcher interested in measuring public
support for ID cards. (10)
6 (b) Suggest, giving reasons, one alternative method
by which the information could be presented in order
to make it easier for a researcher to use. (5)
Outline the strengths
and weaknesses of this
source for a researcher
interested in measuring
public support for ID
cards. (10)
Key word – ‘this source’ –
means that you must examine
the source of the information
very carefully.
You should focus on:
• the fact that it is an opinion poll
• the fact that the opinion poll was
carried out by MORI, an
internationally respected polling
company
• how the poll was conducted
Outline the strengths
and weaknesses of this
source for a researcher
interested in measuring
public support for ID
cards. (10)
date on which the poll was carried
out
characteristics of the sample
who has been sampled
and who has been left out?
size of the sample
use of ‘weighting’
use of ‘rounding’
type of questions asked
Question asks you to describe and explain the
strengths and weaknesses of this source of information.
Your answer therefore must be balanced for full marks.
This means that you must address both the strengths
and the weaknesses.
If you do not, your answer will be marked out of 6
marks and not 10.
Your answer though does not have to be equally
balanced.
It is possible to achieve 6 marks for strengths and 4
marks for weaknesses or vice versa.
You will get a lot of credit for developing your points
and for providing exemplification.
Answers that simply list points will not receive a high
mark.
Answers that show a lack of knowledge or
understanding of the issue will not achieve high marks.
Company used to carry
out the opinion poll:
MORI
is an internationally respected polling company
has a lot of experience in carrying out opinion polls; knows
importance of sample size, characteristics of sample population etc.
and has to stay in business so it has to maintain its credibility as a
polling company.
has to stay in business so it has to maintain its credibility as a polling
company. used by many high profile companies such as market
research, newspapers and political parties to gauge public opinion on
many issues.
is used by many high profile companies such as market research,
newspapers and political parties to gauge public opinion on many
issues.
Company used ‘weighting’
to choose the sample
Weighting ensures that the sample of 1000 people aged 18
and over are representative of the whole population of the UK.
Weighting takes into account the following characteristics of
the UK population:
its age structure
its gender structure
socio-economic structure.
Size of sample 1000
Use of computer
rounding
Many critics of opinion polls
wonder how a sample of around
1000 people can be representative
of the opinions of millions of
people.
This will introduce statistical
error into the final results
reducing their level of accuracy.
Research method
used – advantages
and disadvantages
Advantages of telephone interviewing using RDD – Random Digit
Dialling.
•RDD provides a representative probability sample of all telephone users,
unlike telephone surveys which rely on registered telephone number lists or
directories. (Telephone interviewing has traditionally been regarded as
unreliable because of the difficulty of obtaining an unbiased genuinely
random sample from the phone book).
• ICM and Gallup argued that 94% of the population could now be
contacted by phone. RDD can be used to contact ex-directory numbers.
•Good because people who are ex-directory can now be contacted; mainly
female, people living on their own – no longer excluded from the sample.
Research method
used – advantages
and disadvantages
Advantages of telephone interviewing using RDD – Random Digit
Dialling.
•Telephone interviewing makes it easier and cheaper to get a wider
sample in terms of geographical positioning; avoids clustering which
happens with postal surveys.
•Allows for more stringent checks to be carried out on those who are
interviewing because they are all based in one central position rather
than being spread throughout the country.
Research method
used – advantages
and disadvantages
Disadvantages of telephone interviewing using RDD – Random
Digit Dialling.
•10% of the UK population do not have a telephone – these people are
also excluded from the survey – mainly people in the lower socioeconomic groups in society.
•Still the problem of ‘obtaining a response’- non-contacts and refusals.
•Still the problem of reliability of information received over the phone.
People find it easier to make false comments on the phone. Is the
person on the phone who they say they are?
Reliability of opinion
polls as a source of
information
Opinion polls are inherently limited in their value as predictors
because they only represent a ‘snap-shot’ of public opinion at the
time the survey is carried out and the results ‘go to press’.
Opinion polls can only measure what people say. What people say
and actually do are often not the same and so if used to predict how
people might vote on the issue, opinion polls are not accurate.
Reliability of opinion
polls as a source of
information
This poll was carried out between 18 and 23 March 2004 but the
results were not published until 23 April 2004.
Some of the respondents may well have changed their mind on the
issue during that time. Results therefore may not be an accurate
reflection of public opinion.
Reliability of opinion
polls as a source of
information
1972, 1992 General Elections - opinion polls carried out during
the election campaign came under criticism for high level of
inaccuracy.
Opinion polls since 1970 have predicted the wrong outcome in 5
out 7 elections.
Reliability of opinion
polls as a source of
information
Some people are inclined to give ’politically correct’ answers to
questions. This will inevitably increase the chances and size of error
in the result.
Many critics of opinion polls wonder how a sample of around
1000 people can be representative of the opinions of millions of
people.
Type of questions
asked in the opinion
poll
•Questions are examples of ‘closed questions’ – they give the respondent a
choice of answers from a directed list. Gives standardised answers.
Standardised answers make it possible to identify patterns and make
comparisons between the different groups of people such as between males
and females or between working-class and middle-class.
Results can be replicated easily to check for reliability.
Same questions can be repeated at a future date in order to make
comparisons over time – longitudinal study.
Reduces possibility of interviewer bias.
Type of questions
asked in the opinion
poll
With closed questions it is difficult for respondents to elaborate or
develop their answers in depth. This means that the results may not be
wholly valid in that they do not give a true picture of the respondent’s
point of view.
Difficult to make generalisations or assumptions based on the results.
Key words – information,
presented, easier, a researcher.
Consider how the information is
presented by MORI e.g.
b) Suggest giving
reasons, one alternative
way in which the
information in the source
could be presented in
order to make it easier
for a researcher
to use.
•The questions are written in
bold.
•The standardised answers are
listed underneath.
•The number who responded to
each standardised answer is given
beside it in %s.
How could this be improved upon?
Primary data that is
collected in statistical form
can be presented in a variety
of graphical ways.
Presenting data in
this way is very
important because it
helps analysis.
helps identify
relationships
between
variables
helps
identify
patterns
helps
summarise
data
Graphical
representation
is important
because it
makes a
report
more attractive
clarifies
text
demonstrates
points
more forcibly
There is a huge range of
graphical and
cartographical
techniques available
The technique you use will
depend on the type of
data collected
Whatever the technique chosen,
it should be
neat, colourful and annotated, in
order to ensure its impact and
effectiveness.
So all diagrams must have:
a title
a key
colour
a
labelled
axis
and be
referred
to in
the text
Results of Opinion Poll
on Identity Cards
•A comparative bar graph is used to
show the frequency or amount of a
number of different categories or
questions.
•The bars are drawn with a gap in
between them, and they are
coloured or shaded differently. This
is because the categories are
unconnected.
Percentage
100
50
Key
Yes
No
Don’t know
0
1
2
Questions
3
Results of Question (i) To what
extent, if at all, are you in favour of,
or opposed to, a national identity
card scheme?
This method of presenting the results is
called a histogram – used when results are
connected – ‘yes’,‘no’,‘don’t know’
It has the same advantages as for a bar graph
however in this example three histograms
would have to be drawn:
Percentage
100
50
•one for each question
•a different colour could be used for each
question.
0
Yes
No
Question (i)
Key
Percentage
Don’t know
Results of Opinion Poll
on Identity Cards
Percentage
Question 1
Question 2
Question 3
Key
Yes
No
Don’t know
100
50
It has the same advantages
as for the vertical
presentation.
0
This is an example of a
comparative bar graph on its
side.
Results of Question (i) To what
extent, if at all, are you in favour of,
or opposed to, a national identity
card scheme?
Yes
No
Don’t know
Key
Percentage
100
50
It has the same advantages
as for the vertical
presentation.
0
This is an example of a bar
graph on its side.
Percentage
Question 1 :To what extent, if at all, are you
in favour of, or opposed to, a national
identity card scheme?
5%
Strongly in favour
6% 1%
Moderately in favour
8%
50%
30%
Neither in favour nor
opposed
Moderately opposed
Strongly opposed
Don’t know
5%
Strongly in favour
6% 1%
Moderately in favour
8%
50%
30%
Neither in favour nor
opposed
Moderately opposed
Strongly opposed
Don’t know
A pie chart is a good way of showing how a whole is divided up – in this
case the answers to the question.
Each segment of the pie represents the possible answers to the question.
The size of a segment represents the percentage support for that answer
e.g. ‘Don’t know’ = 1%.
The use of different colours for each segment makes it easier to
distinguish between the different levels of support for each answer.
Question 1 :To what extent, if at all, are
you in favour of, or opposed to, a national
identity card scheme?
5%
Strongly in favour
6% 1%
Moderately in favour
8%
50%
Neither in favour nor
opposed
Question 2 : For what reasons are you in
favour of a national identity card scheme?
Moderately opposed
Strongly opposed
30%
Don’t know
Preventing illegal
im m igration
16%
0%
30%
Question 3 : How much, if anything, do you know
about the Government’s proposals to introduce a
national identity card scheme for all UK citizens?
Making it easier to prove
w ho you are
17%
18%
A great deal
6%
6%
Easier to detect and arrest
crim inals
19%
Stopping people applying
for goods etc fraudulently
in your nam e
Having one card to act as
ID, passport and driving
licence
A fair amount
22%
28%
Just a little
38%
Heard of it but
know nothing
about it
Never heard of it
Good way of comparing and analysing the
results for all three questions.
No marks are given for the choice of alternative
method of presentation.
Marks are given for the explanation of method chosen
e.g. why that method would be easier for a researcher.
For full marks you would have to give at least two well
developed points.

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