to view Ahmed Mousa Jiyad`s presentation

Report
Presentation delivered before
The 4th Iraqi Petroleum Conference
Iraq: Exploration, Field Development & Operation Challenges
Organized by
Target Exploration
13 &14 September 2012,
The Imperial College, London, UK
By
Ahmed Mousa Jiyad
Iraq/ Development Consultancy and Research
Norway
Phone: +46 5659 5699
Email: [email protected]
The Issues
Augments Petroleum Proven Reserves
Enhance Production Capacities
Expand Export Capacities and Diversify Export Outlets
Increase Gas Utilization & Reduce Gas Flaring
Develop Refining Capacities
FDI-IOCs Involvement
NES, NDP and Managing the Plenty
Main Determinants Facing Iraq’s Petroleum Strategy
1- Augments Petroleum Proven Reserves
Current Proven Reserves: 143 bbl; 66 oilfields;
7%
28%
65%
Oil in Place Reserves
Remaining Proven Reserves
Accumulated prod., at 1/1/2010
Enhance The
Recovery
Factor
The 4th/5th
Bid Rounds
Deep
Drilling
MoO
Exploration
program
2- Enhance Production Capacities
3.0
Production-mbd
2.5
2.0
Re P
PPP
1.5
DPP
D/ReD P
1.0
0.5
0.0
Rumaila
WQ1
Zubair
Missan
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
PPP (7, 9, 10, 13 Ys)
Majnoon
Halfaya
1.2
Garraf
1.0
DPP
Badra
0.8
Qaiyara
0.6
Najma
AlAhdab
0.4
0.2
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0.0
2009
Production (mbd)
WQ2
DP
12
Production-Mbd
10
8
6
4
2
0
TP
BFTP
GFTP
PROVEN RESERVES, TOTAL & INCREMENTAL
PRODUCTION CAPACITY
14 Oilfields
67.3 bbls (58.5%)
MoO plan
(mbd):
2011 – 2.75
2012 – 3.3
2013 – 4.5
2014 – 6.5
Gas Reserves & Availability
Proven gas reserves:112 tcf- trillion cubic feet, 71% associated gas, 20% non-associated
and 9% dome gas. Geographically: 30% in the north and 70% in the south/middle Iraq.
Probable reserves are estimated to be 275-300 tcf.
Associated Gas: 1mbd oil gives 0.800BcfdA 12.5 mbd oil gives 10.0 Bcfd
Gas Flaring: currently Iraq is producing 1.5 bcfd, of which some 700 mcfd
flares.
Gas Fields Bid Round: Akkas, Mansuriya and Siba.
Total 7.4 tcf proven Reserves. Production capacity of 820 mcfd; PPPs:
9-13; P/R ratio:~25 years.
N/IOCs
Consortium (75%)
St/Pr
(25%)
CPmbd
(BLP)
PPTsmbd/ Y
RF
S.B
$m
IPTFCP
000bd
Reserv
e
billion
barrels
MEO
$m
IR
$bln
$/b)
Oilfield
AlAhdad
CNPC (100)
SOMO
0.000
0.115a/*Y
6
3
*
1.00c
350
1.6
Rumaila
(N&S)
BP (50.666),
CNPC (49.333)
SOMO
1.066e
2.850/
7Y
2
500
10%
BLP
17.8
300
15-20
West
Qurna1
Exxon Mobil (80),
Shell (20)
OEC
0.300
0.244f
2.350/
2.850 7Y
1.9
2.0
100
10%
BLP
8.6
200
40-50
Zubair
Eni (43.747), Oxy (31.253),
Kogas (25)
MOC
0.200
0.183f
1.200/
7Y
2
100
10%
BLP
4.1
200
35
Missan
(3 oilfields)
CNOOC (85)
TAPO (15)
IDC
0.100
0.450/
*Y
2.30
300
10%
BLP
2.5
200
*
West
Qurna2
Lukoil (75),
Statoil (25)
NOC
0.000
1.800/
13Y
1.15
150
120
12.876
250
30
Majnoon
Shell (60),
Petronas (40)
MOC
0.045
1.800/
10Y
1.39
150
175
12.580
300
*
Halfaya
CNPC (50), Total (25)
Petronas (25),
SOC
0.003
0.535/
13Y
1.40
150
70
4.098
200
*
Garraf
Petronas (60),
Japex (40)
SOC
0.000
0.230/
13Y
1.49
100
35
0.863
150
7-8
Badra
Gazprom (40), Kogas (30),
Petronas (20) TPAO (10),
OEC
0.000
0.170/
7Y
5.50
100
15
0.109
1.203g
100
3.52
Qaiyara
Sonangol (100)
SOC
0.000
0.120/9Y
5.00
100
30
0.807
150
2.0
Najma
Sonangol (100)
IDC
0.000
0.110/9Y
100
20
0.858
100
*
1.698
11.730
6.0
0
--
1853
----
67.285
2500
*
Total
d
b
b
3- Expand Export Capacities and Diversify Export Outlets
MoO Plan
2011 – 2.4
2012 – 3.25
2013 – 5.09
2014 – 5.65
ICOEE
Export outlets (mbd)
NAG: 8.5
(5SPMs, BoT & KoT)
Syria: 4.5
(Rehab1.25; new 1.25 L/m
crude; 1.5 Hc)+ gas pipeline
Turkey: 1.6 (Upgrade K-C)
+ new oil and gas pipelines!
Nabucco??
Jordan: 10,000 bd (Trucks)
IIS gas pipeline?
IPSA- oil pipelie?
Zerga-Jordan?
4- Increase Gas Utilization & Reduce Gas Flaring
BR1
• BGC- LNG
BR2
• IOCs obligations
BR3
• Free gas fields
BR4
• Priority for gas fields. Possibility
for Export of Dry Gas
MoO Plan
Natural gas
production
capacity
(mmcf/d):
2011 – 1,775
2012 – 2,375
2013 – 3,075
2014 – 4,500
5-Developing Refining Capacity
MoO Plan: Refining capacity
(000bd-input)
2011
2012
2013
2014
575
640
680
700
Four new major refineries
Nassiriya (300,000 bd)- $8bn; Missan (150,000 bd)- $5bn
Kirkuk (150,000 bd)-$5bn; Karbala (140,000 bd)-ca$5bn
The legal frameworks are outlined in two laws: Investment Law (No. 13 of 2006)
through NIC and the Refinery Investment Law (No. 64 of 2007). Contractual terms
outlined in 17 January 2012 invitation offer from MoO, London Conf., May ???
In addition to these new capacities the ones to be renovated are Baiji, north of
Baghdad, the Doura refinery in southern Baghdad and the Basra refinery in the
south.
6- FDI & IOCs Involvement
The
Constitutional
Principles
 The State shall guarantee the reform of the
Iraqi economy in accordance with modern
economic principles to insure the full
investment of its resources, diversification
of its sources, and the encouragement and
development of the private sector. §25
 The State shall guarantee the
encouragement of investment in the
various sectors, and this shall be regulated
by law. §26.
 Using the most advanced techniques of the
market principles and encouraging
investment to develop oil and gas wealth.
§112 (2nd).
Iraq’s Investment Requirements in the
Petroleum Sector
$200 billion
$100bn to develop upstream oil and gas fields;
$40bn to develop the gas industry;
$30bn to increase refinery capacity;
$30bn to expand export facilities.
7-NES, NDP and Managing the Plenty
National Energy Strategy
NES is drafted by a committee composed of the
ministries of Oil, Electricity, Planning, and Finance,
DPM/E (HS) and PMAC (TG & others) .
The World Bank financed the study and also assisting in
its formulation .
IEA-WEO 2012
"This strategy is going to provide the groundwork
for which is the optimum scenario for Iraq to
follow," "We are looking 20 years from now." (TGPMAC)
HIPCU
HRD
HRD
LGDO
HGDO
LRD
LIPCU
LRD
Where stands Iraqi today?
Iraq-HIPCU
2.6
350
2.5
FRD
300
2.4
250
2.3
2.2
200
2.1
150
2.0
1.9
100
1.8
Export mbd-LHS
1.7
Rev$/d (mil)-RHS
1.6
H
G
D
O
0
L
G
D
O
Iraq-LIPCU
50
Conceptual “Situation/ Strategy” Matrix
Proactive NOT Reactive
Situation /
Strategy components
Honeymoon
Delicate
balance
Risky
Nightmare
Situation Analysis/
Description
Impact /Results Assessment
(Measurement units, verifications,
norms, etc)
Policy Options:
(What to do, when, how, etc)
Annexes: (Methodology, data,
scenarios, models etc,)
Institutional and Legal Frameworks: (Governance, Transparency and Accountability)
8-Main Determinants Facing Iraq’s Petroleum Strategy
1- Legal: Constitution,
FOGL, MoO, INOC,
provincial law/KRG
etc;
2- Institutional: who do
what under what
authority..,;
3- Human resources: de
facto and de jure.., decapacitating;
management and
coordination
4- Logistical (sector
specific) and
infrastructure;
5- Structural
(Macroeconomics):
Absorptive capacity
limitations, Dutch
disease and resource
curse attacks;
6- Political (domestic);
7-Geopolitical / regional;
8- International;
9- Security;
10- Oilfields specifics;

similar documents