Envelope/Scenario Forecasts - Strategic Human Resource Planning

Report
Chapter 6
Determining
HR Demand
Copyright © 2013 by Nelson Education Ltd.
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Learning Outcomes
After reading this chapter, you should be
able to:
• Understand the importance of demand
forecasting in the HR planning process
• Recognize the linkages between the HR plan,
labour demand forecasting techniques, and
the subsequent supply stage
Copyright © 2013 by Nelson Education Ltd.
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HR Demand
Copyright © 2013 by Nelson Education Ltd.
Thinkstock
HR demand: The
organization’s
projected
requirement for
human resources
3
Two Approaches to
HR Demand
Quantitative
1. Trend/Ratio
analysis
2. Regression
analysis
1.
2.
3.
4.
Qualitative
Envelope/scenario
planning
Impact analysis
Delphi technique
Nominal group
technique
Copyright © 2013 by Nelson Education Ltd.
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Trend Analysis
Trend analysis: Reveals the historical
relationship between an operational index
and the number of employees required by the
organization (demand for labour)
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©atm2003/Shutterstock
Ratio Analysis
• Ratio analysis: A
quantitative method
of projecting HR
demand by
analyzing the
relationship between
an operational index
and the number of
employees required
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Trend/Ratio Analysis
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Regression Analysis
Regression analysis: Very effective,
quantitative forecasting technique for short-,
medium-, and long-range time horizons
• Can be easily updated and changed
• Uses SPSS or SAS
Copyright © 2013 by Nelson Education Ltd.
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HR Budgets
HR budgets: Quantitative, operational, or
short-run demand estimates that contain the
number and types of personnel required by
the organization as a whole and for each subunit, division, or department
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Thinkstock
HR Budgets:
Staffing Table
• Staffing table: Total
HR demand
requirements for
operational or shortrun time periods
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HR Budgets:
Staffing Table
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Two Approaches to
HR Demand
Quantitative
1. Trend/Ratio
analysis
2. Regression
analysis
1.
2.
3.
4.
Qualitative
Envelope/scenario
planning
Impact analysis
Delphi technique
Nominal group
technique
Copyright © 2013 by Nelson Education Ltd.
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Envelope/Scenario
Forecasts
Envelope/scenario forecasts: Projections, or
multiple-predictor estimates, of future
demand for personnel predicated on a variety
of differing assumptions about how future
organizational events will unfold
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Envelope/Scenario
Forecasts
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Impact Analysis
Impact analysis: A forecasting method in
which past trends are analyzed by a
panel of experts to predict future HR
demand
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Delphi Technique
Delphi technique: A process in which the
forecasts and judgments of a selected
group of experts are solicited and
summarized in an attempt to determine
the future HR demand
Usually do not meet in person; predictions anonymously circulated
and revised
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Nominal Group
Technique
Nominal Group Technique: Long-run
forecasting technique utilizing expert
assessments
Usually do meet and jointly determine forecast
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