11A 1 Kirk - CAVCOE_ACT_conf

Report
Three
Technologies
That Will
Change The
World
Barrie Kirk, P.Eng.
Executive Director, Canadian Automated Vehicles Centre of Excellence
Presentation to ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit
December 3, 2014
ACT Canada’s Sustainable
Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
2
ACT Canada’s Sustainable
Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Agenda
• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)
• Connected Vehicles (CVs)
• Electric Vehicles (EVs)
• Benefits, synergies and issues
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Agenda
• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)
• Connected Vehicles (CVs)
• Electric Vehicles (EVs)
• Benefits, synergies and issues
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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First Generation of AVs are here
• Semi-autonomous cars: Infiniti Q50,
Mercedes S-Class
– Intelligent cruise control (acceleration and
braking)
– Lane-keeping
– Automatic parking
– Pedestrian avoidance / automatic braking
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Suncor: Automated Dump Truck
7 Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
ACT
Induct Navia
8 Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
ACT
Trial of fully-automated taxis planned for
Milton Keynes, UK, in 2015
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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AV Rollout
• Rollout will be evolutionary; two versions
• Technology companies: Google, RDM, Induct
– Low-speed, electric, fully-automated
– Then add speed, highway capability, etc.
• Most major car manufacturers
– Add Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) to
familiar models
– Intelligent cruise control (acceleration and braking),
lane-keeping, pedestrian avoidance, auto parking
– Then evolve to full automation
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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AV Rollout (cont’d)
• 2014: first generation AVs
• 2018-2019: first commercial fullyautonomous, highway-capable cars
• 2020-2030: major penetration of AVs in
Canada, US and around the world
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Agenda
• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)
• Connected Vehicles (CVs)
• Electric Vehicles (EVs)
• Benefits, synergies and issues
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Connected Vehicles
• Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V)
• Vehicle-to-roadside infrastructure (V2I)
• Vehicle-to-other systems/servers (V2X)
– Mainly to the Internet
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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CV: Current Applications
• Infotainment:
– Traffic, weather, restaurants, concierge service
– Music, movies, games, social networking
• Vehicle remote access
• Vehicle health reports
• Usage Based Insurance (UBI)
• Fleet management for trucks
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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CV: Future Applications
• Safety / collision avoidance
• Fleet management for Transportation-as-aService (TaaS)
• Enhanced integration of smartphones into
vehicles
• Updating car’s OS, driving software
• Scanning web for conditions on road ahead
• Road-trains / platooning
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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CV Technologies
• 3G, 4G, LTE mobile phone technology
• Wi-Fi, WiMAX
• Dedicated Short Range Communications
(DSRC) at 5.9 GHz
– Now being tested at Ann Arbor, MI
• By 2020: 5G mobile phone technology
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Agenda
• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)
• Connected Vehicles (CVs)
• Electric Vehicles (EVs)
• Benefits, synergies and issues
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Electric Vehicles
• Many models of all-electric vehicles
commercially available now
– Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus Electric, Tesla, etc.
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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All-Electric Prototype AVs
RDM (UK)
Google
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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AV + EV Prototypes
Nissan has
tested AV
technology on
an all-electric
Nissan Leaf
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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EV Features
Energy efficient
Zero emissions
Great acceleration
Less maintenance
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
Range anxiety
Recharge time
Battery cost
Battery size, weight
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Agenda
• Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)
• Connected Vehicles (CVs)
• Electric Vehicles (EVs)
• Benefits, synergies and issues
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Automated
Vehicles
Connected
Vehicles
Electric
Vehicles
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
ACE Vehicles
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Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS)
• Fully-automated taxis
– Replacement for car ownership, regular taxis,
some transit, car rental
– Call, pay via Smartphone
• “Personalized mass transit”
• Uses AV, CV, EV
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TaaS (cont’d)
• Much safer:
– No driver → 80+% reduction in collisions
• Reduced cost / fares:
–
–
–
–
–
No driver
Low energy costs
Low maintenance costs
Cost competitive with transit
Much lower cost than regular taxis
• Reduced car ownership (started!)
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TaaS + Transit
• Reduced transit ridership
• Reduced need for park-and-rides
• Traditional transit best for:
– High volume routes, rush hour
• TaaS best for
– Low density, non-rush hour routes
– Last mile
• Issues
– Optimum mix of transportation modes
– TaaS offered by transit companies or private sector?
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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TaaS + Urban Planning
• Substantially reduced need for parking
• Changes in where people live and work
– More intensification and more sprawl
• Change in design of homes
• Reduced focus on Transit Oriented Development
• Less pollution + less parking spaces = greener
cities
• AV-only zones
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Impact of AVs on Government
• Government: all levels / most departments
– Finance, economy and GDP
– Transportation policies and regulations
– Policies on industry, R&D
– Urban planning
– Health-care
– Policing
– Transit
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Impacts of AVs on Private Sector
• Corporate business plans / employment:
– Taxis
– Trucking / delivery
– Auto industry
– Oil industry
– Electricity generation and distribution
– Technology industry
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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AVs: The Coming of the Next Disruptive
Technology
• Report by Conference Board of Canada,
CAVCOE and Van Horne Institute
• Scope:
– Status and trends in AVs
– Impact on economy, infrastructure, transportation
costs
• Due out in December
– Free!
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Conclusions
• Our cities and our world will look very
different in 2030 compared to today
because of ACE vehicles
• Transportation-as-a-Service a key outcome
• Huge impact on transportation and transit
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Recommendation
• All transportation / transit long range plans
should incorporate impact of AVs
CBoC CTI Nov 25, 2014
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Questions?
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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Follow-up
• Barrie Kirk
[email protected]
613-271-1657
• AV Update, a free monthly e-newsletter
with news on AVs from around the world
– To subscribe: business card with “Newsletter”
• www.cavcoe.com
ACT Canada’s Sustainable Mobility Summit; Dec 3, 2014
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