What does UKIP`s progress tell us about England?

Report
What does UKIP’s progress tell us
about England?
Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Ukip support in domestic polls 2010-2014
Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford “Polling Observatory” poll aggregation estimates
Top UKIP Scotland results
Moray 13.6%
Dumfries & Galloway 13.5%
Falkirk 12.8%
Scottish borders 12.4%
Highland 12%
Orkney Islands 12%
Average 10.7%
Easily dwarfed by England…
Map: Election Data
Top 10 Ukip strongholds in 2014
Basildon
44.8
Great Yarmouth
45.2
Forest Heath
45.8
Thurrock
45.9
Teignbridge
46.7
Fenland
47.3
Castle Point
47.8
Tendring
48.4
South Holland
48.5
Boston & Skegness
51.6
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
Who is Ukip recruiting?
• The ‘left behind’; old, white, working-class men with few quals,
in heavily white areas, lots of pensioners, Eastern England
• Anchored in deep social and value change in Britain, widened
since the post-2008 crisis and unlikely to close in near future
• Motivated by ‘Brussels-Plus’; anti-EU but also anti-immigration,
anti-establishment, and specifically angry over management of
immigration and the post-2008 financial crisis
• Most are ex-Tories but not simply splinter party!
• But key challenges: young, women, EMs, middle-class, tactical
votes, the Farage succession and first order elections (!)
Possible scenario #1
UKIP TANK
External factors
• Overcome by majoritarian system in 2015, tactical voting
• Fails to secure seats, written-off irrespective of impact
• Conservative/Con-led victory as most Cons return to fold
• EU referendum briefly revives Ukip, but Eurosceptics lose
• Wider generational and social change drains Ukip reservoir
Internal factors
• Farage succession fails (Knapman and Pearson)
• Donors are not forthcoming at general election
• Party implodes (as in 1996, 2000, 2004…)
• But what evidence do we have?...
Where are Ukip 2014 voters going?
Defected from Con to Ukip in 2014
60
• 37% of Con voters who switched to
Ukip in 2014 Euros say they will
return to Cons in 2015…
50
• But 52% say they will stay with Ukip
in 2015
40
30
• More generally, 64% of all Ukip voters
(not just ex-Cons) say they will stay
with Ukip in 2015
– Equivalent figure in 2010 was 29%
20
10
0
Ukip
Con
Don't Know
Other
Possible scenario #2
UKIP THRIVE
External factors
• Ukip win at least one seat in 2015 – certainly possible
• Labour re-elected in a fragile state, Cons in disarray
• Issue agenda remains highly favourable for Ukip
– Referendum shelved, immigration remains high, Lab unable to deliver change
• Ukip entrench as main opp in Lab heartlands, similar to EU rad right
Internal factors
• Farage succession goes well, ‘red/blue kipper’ takes over
• Targets voters disillusioned with unpopular Labour government
• In 2014 UKIP won popular vote in Rotherham, Rother Valley, Dudley
North, Plymouth Moor View, Penistone & Stocksbridge and Great
Grimsby
• And there is other evidence….
Where Ukip ‘beat’ Labour in 2014
South Lakeland
York
Eden
Stockport
Lancaster
Calderdale
Craven
Ryedale
Hambleton
Harrogate
Carlisle
Cheshire West
Cheshire East
Darlington
Hartlepool
Rossendale
Richmondshire
Stockton-on-Tees
Fylde
Ribble Valley
Selby
Blackpool
South Ribble
Hyndburn
Doncaster
Kingston upon Hull
Wakefield
Redcar and Cleveland
North Lincolnshire
Scarborough
Middlesbrough
East Riding Yorkshire
Rotherham
North East Lincolnshire
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Immigration increasingly key
What is the most important issue facing the country?
100
Vote UKIP (EP)
Stay Loyal
Defect
Percentage
80
60
40
20
0
Immigration
Economy
Source: British Election Study
What data did I use today?
• Revolt on the Right – book on the rise of Ukip (2014)
British Election Studies since 1964
British Social Attitudes survey since 1983
BES Continuous Monitoring Surveys, 2004-2013
5,593 UKIP intended voters
Extensive interviews with activists
• Insurgency – forthcoming book on the 2015 campaign
British Election Study 2014-2015
Interviews with party strategists

similar documents