FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS Nicosia , Conference June 4th 2014 2 Lessons from existing Life-Cycle offerings 3 Target-Date «Life-Cycle» Funds Definition Target date funds, which are also called lifecycle funds, are designed to offer a convenient way to invest for a person expecting to retire around a particular date. A target date fund pursues a long-term investment strategy, using a mix of asset classes (or asset allocation) that the fund provider adjusts to become more conservative over time. Research shows that asset allocation is one of the most important factors in long-term portfolio performance. Features • Diversification across asset classes • Avoiding extreme asset allocations • Automatic rebalancing • Automatic adjustment for changing risk profile Source: www.ici.org 4 Target-Date «Life-Cycle» Funds US MARKET • The target-date fund industry continues to have some of the most consistent cash flows among all open-end mutual funds For the past five years, net flows into these funds have averaged about USD 48 billion per year • In 2013 target-date funds took in nearly USD 51 billion in net new assets, bringing the industry’s total net assets up to USD 621 billion • Target date strategies is expected to capture 63.4% of 401(k) contributions in 2018 Source: Ibbotson; Global analytics firm Cerulli Associates 5 Target-Date «Life-Cycle» Funds …and in Europe? • European Life-Cycle funds are structurally different to US funds and take a far more aggressive approach. • Some experiences: Austria: first introduced lifecycle investing in 2004 as a “target risk fund”. Now almost all schemes to secure retirement for employees (Pensionskasse) offer a lifecycle option Netherland: lifecycle funds have grown to such an extent that in 2007, the Pension Act required all defined contribution schemed to have a lifecycle default. Sweden: in 1998, the government passed pension reforms increasing the use of lifecycle funds. Although lifecycle represent only a small segment of the market, their role has endured for over a decade 6 With previous offers, risk of sacrificing protection or performance Target date offers de-risking over time (“glide-path”) but no formal protection Risk of protection being insufficient for some investors Proportion in % 100% Target date offers with 100% max NAV formal protection Risk of sacrificing upside potential in low interest rate environments Opportunity cost for investment occurring in high rate context Euros Asset allocation at retirement date 65 90% 60 80% 70% 55 60% 50 50% 45 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nov-20 40 Cash Bonds Equity Years NAV Nov-30 Nov-40 Nov-50 Nov-60 Nov-70 Guaranteed value at maturity Years Need to develop a new type of offering, combining protection and upside potential Source: BNPP IP, for illustrative purposes only 7 Need for a solution adaptative to various interest rate regime Swap rates Interest rates: currently low… and unpredictable over a long term savings horizon 7,00% 6,00% 5Y IR ? 5Y IR 5,00% 8Y IR 8Y IR 10Y IR 13Y IR 4,00% 10Y IR 13Y IR 3,00% 15Y IR 15Y IR 20Y IR 25Y IR 2,00% 20Y IR 25Y IR 1,00% 30Y IR 30Y IR 0,00% Our starting point to develop BNP Paribas Plan Easy Future Source: BNPP IP 8 Easy Future: our answer, based on two innovations Aiming to reconciliate Innovation 1 Protection mechanism - Protection and upside potential reconciled - Adaptation to market changes - An offer built to remain relevant in the future - Potential good news to come - Value formally protected at maturity - Protection adaptative to: - Interest rate - Time remaining to maturity Innovation 2 - Reasonable sized cushion Management of the - High diversification risky assets - Risk-controlled leverage A breakthrough approach documented in a white paper 9 Easy Future for the investor in a nutshell Range of 8 open-ended target dated sub-funds ranging from 2018 to 2043, allowing to invest at one’s own pace and respect one’s own horizon, well-adapted to progressive savings Aiming to offer a good balance between: capital growth potential: a well-calibrated portion of funds invested in performance engines & an adaptative Formal Protection: a formally protected value at maturity for each fund which can only increase over time A Cushion Portfolio Insurance range of funds with relevant value proposal whatever time left to maturity & interest rates, hence well-adapted to progressive savings 10 An adaptative protection mechanism ● A formally protected Value at maturity, which can only increase over time – Common to all the investors of a given sub-fund – Formal protection given by the BNP Paribas Group ● A daily calculation to determine the protection – Daily calculation of new potential value at maturity: Protected Value at maturity = Current NAV x Current Protection Ratio The best of 2 1. Linked to time remaining to maturity 2. Linked to interest rate conditions – New value at maturity only taken into account if above previous one Introducing a new approach: PIWAP = Portfolio Insurance With Adaptative Protection 11 2nd protection: highlighting the limits of traditional approaches Traditional guaranteed funds = pre-determined protection ratios Here 100% of investor’s capital guaranteed in 25 years 1 Put aside assets ensuring protection 2 Deduct size of cushion investable in risky assets Case 1: low interest rates (1.5%) Cushion investable in risky assets 11 €* Assets ensuring protection 89 € NAV=100€ ? 100 € Protected NAV at maturity=100€ Protection excessively ambitious, upside potential sacrificed Case 2: high interest rates (5%) ? Cushion investable in risky assets Assets ensuring protection 62 €* 100 € 38 € NAV=100€ Protected NAV at maturity = 100€ Protection sacrificed, excessive risk taking Risk taking (protection/return couple) depends on rates and residual maturity Source: BNPP IP; for illustrative purpose only ; Management fees assumption: 1% - * Level of the cushion if a new protection is given 12 2nd protection: paradigm change by linking it to interest rates Our proposition = adapt protection to interest rate conditions 1 Invest a reasonably-sized cushion in risky assets 2 Deduct the relevant protection given interest rates Case 1: low interest rates (1.5%) Case 2: high interest rates (5%) ? Cushion investable in risky assets Assets ensuring protection ? 25 75 NAV=100€ 85 Protected NAV at maturity=85€ Cushion investable in risky assets Assets ensuring protection 200 25 75 NAV=100€ Protected NAV at maturity = 200€ Protection and upside potential combined ; value proposition aiming at being relevant whatever interest rates Source: BNPP IP; for illustrative purpose only ; Management fees assumption: 1% - * Level of the cushion if a new protection is given 13 Historical illustration of the protection ratios Swap rates 7,00% 6,00% Illustration of the backtested protection ratio for 25 year target date fund in various interest rate regimes Protection ratio of 25 y @ 256% Yield curves Protection ratio of 25 y @ 189% 5Y IR 5,00% 8Y IR Protection ratio of 25 y @ 110% 4,00% 10Y IR 13Y IR 3,00% 15Y IR 2,00% 20Y IR 25Y IR 1,00% 30Y IR 0,00% Protection ratios significantly above 100% for longer-dated funds in high interest rate contexts Source: BNPP IP & Bloomberg, au 01/10/13 14 Protection at maturity ensured by low risk fixed income assets ● A synthetic fixed income portfolio specific to each BNP Paribas Easy Future fund with a maturity matching the fund’s maturity ● A zero coupon behavior ● A synthetic exposure replication to a BNP Paribas collateralized bond Cushion invested in risky asset Low risk Fixed income – BNP Paribas ratings (4 April 2014): A+ (S&P), A1 (Moody’s), A+ (Fitch) – Maturity of the synthetic BNP Paribas bond matching the fund’s maturity – Funding level reflecting BNP Paribas rating and BNP Paribas UCI funding vehicles ● An active duration management to optimize rebalancing between the Low risk fixed income portfolio and the cushion invested in risky asset Fixed income assets following strict guidelines 15 Risky asset portfolio specifically designed for CPPI structure Cushion invested in Risky asset ● Designed and managed to be used in CPPI structures with a controlled downside risk to minimize monetization: – Global diversification aiming at reducing downside risk – Leverage to boost returns but a flexible leverage aiming at reducing drawdown risk Low risk Fixed income ● A model portfolio based on risk budgeting approach to ensure diversification over time – 80 % of the risk budget allocated to directional exposure on traditional asset classes – 20% of the risk budget allocated to a largely diversified portfolio of absolute return strategies ● An active management that can deviate from the model portfolio to benefit from market opportunities or protect from market threats – risk budget allocated to directional exposure can vary from 50% and 100% – risk budget allocated to absolute return leeway can vary from 0% and 50% Combination aiming at being well-prepared to face different market conditions Source: BNPP IP; for illustrative purpose only 16 Backtested benefit of the directional risky asset construction 1 Diversification benefit: sharpe ratio improved: similar long term returns with lower volatility 3 2 Flexible leverage benefit: increasing the sharpe ratio and minimizing drawdowns Leverage benefit: increasing risk and, hence, return potential Significant value brought by each of the three layers Source: THEAM as of 30/09/13 17 Fund behavior: risky assets flat ; interest rates up Example ● Example on BNPP Plan Easy Future 2038 : risky assets flat ; interest rates up Source: BNPP IP as of 16/09/13 for illustrative purpose only Starting point: 24.6€ 24.6% in line with 20% to 25% objective 75.4€ 75.4% Protected Value at maturity = Current Protection Ratio x current NAV = 110.4% x 100.0€ = 110.4€ Protected Value = 110.4€ Current NAV = 100.0€ Risky assets flat, interest rates up +1%*: 29.6% > 20% to 25% objective 20.8€ 24.6€ 58.5€ 70.4% needed for protection Rebalancing** 62.4€ 25.0% back in line with 20% to 25% objective Rebalancing into low risk Fixed income with higher rates 75.0% Current NAV = 83.2€ Protected Value = 117.7€ Current NAV down * From 2.67% to 3.67% Protected Value at maturity = Current Protection Ratio x current NAV = 141.5% x 83.2€ = 117.7€ > 110.4€ Protected Value at maturity increased ** From risky assets to fixed income instruments FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS An extensive Marketing kit 19 All the material gathered on a dedicated website http://easyfuture.bnpparibas-ip.lu/ Video Retail flyer, Q&A and protected values Simulator Redirection towards subfund pages Source: BNPP IP - For illustrative purpose only FOR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS Conclusion 21 BNPP Plan Easy Future: main features & benefits Benefits for end client Benefits for distributor 8 target date funds, dated 2018 to 2043 Simple choice of relevant fund Comprehensive range, completed over time to remain consistent Upside potential thanks to well-calibrated risky asset exposure Room for capital to grow, even when interest rates are low Cash lock risk minimized, sustainable fees Capital formally protected at maturity Adaptative to market environment Visibility at all times regarding minimum capital at maturity, which can only increase over time Adaptation to progressive investment; Higher protection ratios for investments occuring with higher rates Differentiation vs. « glidepath » offerings A paradigm change vs. existing protected target date ones Contact opportunities with client: on NAV and/or protected value A win-win value proposition, designed for the long term 22 Disclaimer This material is issued and has been prepared by BNP Paribas Asset Management S.A.S. 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