US Perspectives

Report
WEATHER RESEARCH
AFTER THORPEX
Acknowledgements: USTEC Members
US THORPEX Planning Workshop, Silver Spring, MD, 5-6 June 2014
1
THORPEX 101 – 2005-2014
• Objective
– Accelerate improvements in high impact weather forecasts
• History
– WMO/WWRP sponsored program launched in 2004
• Approach
– Research related to end-to-end forecast process
– Coordination across
• Components of forecast system
– Observing, data assimilation, ensemble forecast, decision support systems
• Nations & regions
• Research & operational communities
– Modernize / optimize forecast system
• Allocate research resources to maximize overall economic impact
• Adaptive & probabilistic approaches
– Observations, covariances, physics, decision procedures
2
SOME MAJOR US ACCOMPLISHMENTS
• $ 20+M THORPEX-related investments by agencies
– Field campaigns, AOs, archives, etc
Developed, tested, & operationally implemented
• Adaptive observations
– Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program
• National Weather Service – Suspended
• Ensemble-based DA
– Hybrid GSI-EnKF – NCEP, GMAO
• Multi-center ensemble forecasting
– North American Ensemble Forecast System
• NCEP, Canada, Mexico
• + FNMOC - NUOPC
3
WWRP REORGANIZATION
• Few standing WGs focusing on basic research areas
– DAOS, WGNE, Ensemble/Predictability, SERA
• Time limited projects – supported by WGs & Trust
Funds
– Polar Prediction Project (PPP) - launched
– Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) - launched
– High Impact Weather (HIW) – final planning phase
– Need for coordinated US engagement
• What are US needs in next 5-10 yrs?
– Societal needs?
– Scientific opportunities?
4
US WEATHER RESEARCH PLANNING - 2024
Three considerations:
• Formulate expected societal needs
– Agency requirements
– Agency funding opportunities
• Explore scientific opportunities
– WWRP projects
• Polar Prediction Project (PPP) – Geographical focus
• Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) – Lead-time focus
• High Impact Weather (HIW) – Lead-time focus
• Outline US research interests / talent
Determine overlap between three factors
• Identify US weather research themes
– Themes can cut across THORPEX legacy projects
5
THORPEX LEGACY PROJECTS
• One atmosphere, all spatial/temporal scales
connected
• Post-THORPEX projects focus on various aspects of
forecasting
• Subjects of post-THORPEX projects overlap
• US research themes may address / fall under 2-3
post-THORPX projects
6
US THORPEX ORGANIZATION - CURRENT
• US THORPEX Executive Committee – USTEC
– NASA
– US Navy
– NOAA
– NSF
– US Representative to ICSC
Vacant
Melinda Peng
John Cortinas
Michael Morgan
Zoltan Toth, Chair
• US THORPEX Science Steering Committee - USTSSC
– Edmund Chang (Chair), Malaquias Pena (Co-chair)
• US Program Office
– Supported by NOAA & NSF
7
SUGGESTED US POST-THORPEX ARRANGEMENT
Purpose
– National coordination of US weather research activities
• Incl. intl. engagement w. WWRP / THORPEX legacy projects
• US Executive Weather Research Committee USWRC
– USTEC members (NASA, NOAA, NSF, US Navy)
– Invite other agencies (FAA, US Geological Survey, etc)
• US Weather Research Science Steering Committee USWRSSC
– USTSSC members
– New Chair?
8
WORKSHOP EXPECTATIONS
• Questions about THORPEX
– How THORPEX influenced weather research?
– What was triggered, fostered, facilitated w. THORPEX?
• What would have happened anyway?
• Major projects create opportunities
– Realize and take advantage of them
– Be creative, don’t be bound by what’s on ground
• Create / influence the future
• Present outcome of workshop at WWOSC in
Montreal
– Major US weather research themes
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BACKGROUND
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