Aquaculture_Toft

Report
Marine Aquaculture
Jodie Toft and the Marine NatCap team
InVEST Finfish Aquaculture Model
Evaluate how human activities and climate change may
affect production and value of aquacultured finfish
Image courtesy of the BC Salmon Farmers Association
InVEST Models & Linkages
Crop
Pollination
Water
Purification
Marine
Water
Quality
Aquaculture
Managed
Timber
Production
Reservoir
Hydropower
Production
Habitat Risk
Assessment;
Biodiversity
Coastal
Vulnerability
Aesthetic
Quality
Groundwater
Recharge
Coastal
Protection
Recreation
Flood Risk
Mitigation
Fisheries
(including
recreational)
Overlap
Analysis
Sediment
Retention
Agricultural
Production
Ecosystem Service =
Provisioning of Food
Renewable
Energy
What about filtration?
Carbon
Storage &
Sequestration
(Blue Carbon)
Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 supporting service
Optional model linkage, no sequencing
Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 that quantifies service
Required/optional model linkage,
sequencing needed
Marine model: Tier 1 supporting service
Marine model: Tier 1 that quantifies service
Marine model: Tier 0
Model coming soon!
InVEST Models & Linkages
Crop
Pollination
Water
Purification
Marine
Water
Quality
Aquaculture
Renewable
Energy
Managed
Timber
Production
Reservoir
Hydropower
Production
Habitat Risk
Assessment;
Biodiversity
Coastal
Vulnerability
Aesthetic
Quality
Sediment
Retention
Groundwater
Recharge
Coastal
Protection
Recreation
Agricultural
Production
Flood Risk
Mitigation
Fisheries
(including
recreational)
Overlap
Analysis
Carbon
Storage &
Sequestration
(Blue Carbon)
Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 supporting service
Optional model linkage, no sequencing
Terrestrial/freshwater model: Tier 1 that quantifies service
Required/optional model linkage,
sequencing needed
Marine model: Tier 1 supporting service
Marine model: Tier 1 that quantifies service
Marine model: Tier 0
Model coming soon!
VIDEO INTERLUDE.
Inputs
Farm locations
Farm operations
Outputs
Number of fish, date of
outplanting, ideal
harvest and dressed wt.
Weight of fish
harvested
Environmental
characteristics
Value of fish
harvested
Temperature
Economics
Price-per-pound,
operating costs,
wages
Growing an individual fish
Target harvest
weight
Weight (kg)
Weightt = (aWt-1b * temperature effect) + Wt-1
Outplanting
weight
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
T = 11C
T = 9C
T = 13C
0
200
400
600
Days
Stigebrandt 1999. Turnover of energy and matter by fish – a general model with application to salmon. Fisken og Havet
Ecosystem service value:
1 growing cycle, 1 farm
Weight of harvested fish =
(target harvest weight * # of fish in the netpen) - mortality
Weight of processed fish =
Wt. of harvested fish * fraction
remaining after processing
Value of processed fish =
Wt. of processed fish * (market price
– fraction that is costs)
A complete model run: 1 farm
8
7
8
Value of processed fish
7
6
Weight (kg)
Weight (kg)
6
5
4
3
5
4
3
Fallowing
period
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
200
400
Days
600
0
200
400
600
Days
0
5
User-defined length of model run (e.g., 5 years)
The Model in Action:
Salmon netpens in WCVI
Value of salmon harvest (5 years)
Finfish_Harvest
Value ($)
0 - 3,397,750
3,397,751 - 6,795,500
6,795,501 - 10,193,250
10,193,251 - 13,591,000
• $240,325,000
• 184,811,334 kg
Scenarios
1. Baseline: some farms fallow, some don’t
2. Scenario A: all farms have 4 month fallowing period, some
farms removed or relocated
3. Scenario B: some farms fallow, some farms removed
Scenario A
Baseline
Scenario B
Harvested biomass (kg)
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
$300,000,000
$250,000,000
Baseline
Scenario A Scenario B
Net present value ($)
$200,000,000
$150,000,000
$100,000,000
$50,000,000
$Baseline Scenario A Scenario B
Data Requirements
Application
• What might you use this model for?
• For what kinds of questions in what kinds of
decision making?
Hands-on session
The Model in Action: Part 2
Shellfish aquaculture in Lemmens Inlet
Float homes and shellfish tenures in Lemmens Inlet
Floathomes
Shellfish tenures
Value ($)
Floathomes
2,209 - 44,640
Shellfish tenures
44,641 - 87,072
Value ($)
87,073 - 129,503
2,209 - 44,640
44,641 - 87,072
129,504 - 171,935
Ecosystem risk
<VALUE>
87,073 - 129,503
1.24 - 2.80
129,504 - 171,935
2.80 - 4.35
4.35 - 5.91
A. Baseline
Float
Homes
B. Conservation
Recreational
Kayaking
Increased
Kayaking
Shellfish
Aquaculture
C. Industry Expansion
Geoduck
Harvest
Crab
Harvest
Eelgrass
Guerry et al IJBSESM, in press
What’s next for
Aquaculture in InVEST?
Finfish: wastes and sea lice
Finfish: wastes and sea lice
For use by other InVEST
models:
• Habitat Risk
Assessment
• Water Quality
• Fisheries
Shellfish!
Who?
• Pacific Oyster
• Easter Oyster
• Blue Mussel
• Manila Clam
What?
• Quantity, Value
of harvest
• Quantity of
Filtration (for use
in other models)
Questions?

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