Volodymyr Fesenko`s presentation

Report
Ukrainian crisis
2013-2014
Volodymyr Fesenko
Center for Political
Studies "Penta" (Kyiv,
Ukraine)
Preconditions of new Ukrainian
revolution
 Crisis of the post-soviet
development model in
Ukraine
 Significant ethnic and
cultural diversity of
Ukrainian society
 Tradition of mass
political protests in
Ukraine.
Main causes of the crisis and revolution
 authoritarian trends
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strengthened
systemic corruption
enormous pressure on
the private business
deterioration of social
standards
crisis in economy
growing discontent
with Yanukovych
regime
Immediate reasons of the revolution
 sharp and unexpected
turn in foreign policy
when popular
expectations were proEuropean;
 demonstrative use of
violence against
protesters (events of
November 30th, 2013).
Peculiarities of new Ukrainian
revolution
 Center and a symbol of mass
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protests – Maidan (square
downtown Kyiv)
continuous massive protests
with up to 200 thousand
participants per day
revolution started with
peaceful protests which grew
into street fights due to the
use of violence by government
More then 100 people died
The revolution is proEuropean
Collective coordination of the
Maidan. Absence of one single
leader.
Driving forces of the revolution
 Socially active part of the
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middle class
«Independence generation»
Civil society: protest
groups, social and political
movements of Maidan.
Three parliamentary
opposition forces and nonparliament opposition
political parties.
Unsatisfied citizens from
different social groups
Social and demographic portrait of
protesters. Beginning of the revolution
 50% of participants come
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from Kyiv, 50% from
provinces.
Total majority (92%) are not
members of any political
party
Maidan was younger then
population of a country in
general – average age 36
Men dominated over women
insignificantly (56% against
44%)
64% had university degrees.
Language structure
corresponded with average
in country.
Social and demographic portrait of
protesters at the last stage of revolution
 88% are from province, 12% -
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from Kyiv. 55% come from
Western Ukraine
84% of permanent Maidan
participants came there
independently, 13% belonged
to groups organized by civic
movements, 3% - by political
parties.
The majority of participants
were not members of any
social or political movements
(70%)
88% - men, 12% - women;
average age – 37 years
42% have higher education,
9% were students.
Role of nationalistic radical movements
in Maidan
 Nationalist movements
constituted no more than one
third of permanent
participants of Maidan.
 Membership of the most
known radical organization on
Maidan (Pravyi sector) was no
more than 500 people
 The problem was not in the
influence of nationalistic
organizations on Maidan but
in radicalization of protests.
In between December 2013
and February 2014 a
percentage of supporters of
creation of militarized units
for resistance (on Maidan)
grew from 21% to 50%.
Goals (demands) of protesters
December 7-8, 2013
December 20, 013
February 3, 2014
Resigantion of Yanukovych, early
presidential elections
End of repressions, amnesty for detained
protesters
Resignation of government
75,1
65,7
85,2
81.8
63,9
82,2
80,1
74,5
68,2
Criminal cases against officials
responsible for use of violence against
protesters
Dissolution of Parliament and
appointment of early parliamentary
elections
Return to the 2004 edition of the
Constitution, which limits President;s
authority
Criminal cases against corrupt officials
57,6
50,7
63,7
55,6
51,4
59,1
37,9
42,8
62,5
49,6
42,8
62,1
Signing of Association Agreement with
the EU
Raising of social standards
71,0
58,6
49,0
46,9
42,5
41.1
Freeing of Yulia Tymoshenko
37.8
36,0
30,4
Potential challenges and threats
 Threat of dissolution of the
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country
Possible separation of
Crimea
Severe economic conditions.
Deterioration of economic
situation due to pressure
from Russia.
Growing political instability
Risks of Maidan anarchy
during the first postrevolution months.
Need for implementation of
painful and unpopular
reforms
Internal consequences of revolution in
Ukraine
 Systemic reset of power
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structures
Existence of two power
centers (new public
administration and Maidan)
during the first postrevolution months.
Transformation of Ukrainian
political system into
parliamentary-presidential.
Significant changes in the
party landscape and change
of political preferences of
electorate.
Attempt to conduct structural
reforms
External actors in Ukrainian crisis
 Russia
 The EU
 The USA
Russian influence over Ukrainian crisis
 Political and economic
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pressure over Ukraine
Significant economic support
to Yanukovich(30% discount
on gas; 15 bln USD loan)
Persuading Ukrainian
government to “establish
order” including with
military means.
Development of counterMaidan projects on the level
of local Russian speaking
elites («Ukrainian front»
etc.).
Launch of scenario of
separation of Crimea
The US influence over Ukrainian crisis
 Prevention of violence
 Visa sanctions against
particular Ukrainian
officials, warning on
upcoming financial
sanctions
 role of the intermediary in
the political negotiations
 Assistance in channeling
financial support to
Ukraine through IMF.
 Pressure on Russian
leadership
The EU influence over Ukrainian crisis
 The EU failed to make Yanukovych
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sigh Association Agreement and
DCFTA.
Belated reaction of the EU toward
Ukrainian crisis during its first
phase.
Prevention of usage of violence by
government of Ukraine
Efficient mediation to stop bloody
conflict and organization of
negotiations between the
government and the opposition
Possibility of direct macroeconomic
support for Ukraine.
Pressure over Russian political
management aimed at prevention of
interference into internal affairs of
Ukraine.
Geopolitical consequences of the new
revolution in Ukraine
 Ukraine is back on track in
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regards to the EU integration.
Further tensions between
Russia and Ukraine
Possible international crisis
over status of Crimea.
Probable crisis of relations
between Russia and the West
due to political situation in
Ukraine and Crimea.
Ukrainian factor can influence
situation in Eastern Europe
and political situation in
countries of Eurasian Union, in
particular Belarus and Russia.
Crimean crisis
 Russia launched scenario of
separation of Crimea.
 Pro-Russian organizations in
Crimea seized the power.
Leader of political party
«Rosiyskoe edinstvo» (Russian
unity) Sergiy Aksionov
appointed as the prime minister
 All air bases in Crimea are
controlled by russian army
 It is military aggression, but
without formal announcement
of war
Crimean Crisis. Scenarios
1) Rapid separation of Crimea from
Ukraine after the referendum on
the new status of the autonomy.
2) Russia establishes unofficial
protectorate over Crimea, which
formally continues to be a part of
Ukraine.
3) Ukraine agrees on significant
extension of autonomous status of
Crimea and thanks to Western
support and pressure over Russia
makes Russian forces come back to
their military bases.
Crimean scenario is already used for
other Eastern regions of the country
to divide Ukraine and make new
Ukrainian government illegitimate.
Thank you for the attention!

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