Export performance of Sri Lanka - Exporters Association of Sri Lanka

Report
Export performance of Sri Lanka
Statistical Analysis
By Subhashini Abeysinghe, Senior Economic Analyst
Verité Research Pvt. Ltd.
A interactive Forum “Whither Exports in the next 5 years?”, Organized by The Exporters Association of Sri Lanka
25th October 2013
Exports from selected East Asian Countries
(as a % of World Exports)
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
Sri Lanka
South Korea
Malaysia
Source: World Trade Organization
Thailand
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
1956
1952
1948
0.00%
Viet Nam
Exports as a % of GDP: Comparison with East Asian NICs
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0
Malaysia
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Source: World Bank Data
Korea, Rep.
Exports As a % of GDP: Comparison with selected developing countries in Asia
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Bangladesh
Vietnam
India
Sri Lanka
Source: World Bank Data
Cambodia
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
0
Sri Lanka: Growth in Exports and Imports by Month
100
80
60
40
20
-40
Export Growth
Import Growth
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Jul-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
-20
Jan-11
0
Annual Average Export Growth (%)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2002-12
2010-12
Source: World Trade Organization
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
Chile
Malaysia
Thailand
South Korea
Brazil
Bangladesh
India
Cambodia
Viet Nam
Ghana
0
Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka
Composition of Exports (% of GDP)
Composition of Exports (Value USD Mn)
25
9000
8000
20
7000
6000
15
5000
4000
10
3000
2000
5
Agricultural exports
Industrial Exports
Services exports
Agriculture
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Services
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0
2004
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
2003
1000
Industry
Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka
Industrial Exports
(As a % of Total Exports)
Agriculture Exports
(As a % of Total Exports)
80
28
78
26
24
76
22
74
20
72
18
16
70
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
10
2005
66
2004
12
2003
68
2003
14
Composition of Exports from Sri Lanka
Textile and Garments as a % of Manufacturing
80
Garments Exports: Vietnam and Sri Lanka
Value & % of Manufacturing Exports
70
160
60
140
50
50
120
40
40
30
30
20
20
60
10
China
Malaysia
Viet Nam
India
Sri Lanka
2012
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
0
Indonesia
Thailand
100
80
60
40
10
20
0
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
70
VT (USD Bn)
VT (% of Manu.)
Source: World Trade Organization/Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
SL(USD Bn)
SL(% of Manu.)
Apparel Sector
Top 5 Products Exported to USA
350
500
250
0
2007 2008 2009 2010
3.0
Value (US$ Mn)
2012
2011
2010
2009
Quantity (Mn Units)
Leading apparel items exported as a % of Total apparel imports
into USA from Sri Lanka (at 6 digit level)
Persons engaged '000s (L)
31
18
Top 5
26
Top 10
2002
62
58
49
No. of establishments (R )
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
2008
2.0
2007
1000
450
4.0
2006
550
5.0
2005
1500
6.0
2004
650
7.0
2003
2000
Us$ Million
750
8.0
2002
No of Persons
850
2500
No of establishments
3000
950
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
Million Units
Employment and Establishments
38
33
Top 15
Top 20
2012
Source: US International Trade Commission
Agricultural Products
Tea Exports (Price and Volume)
Desiccated
Coconut
Cinnamon
500
Volume
Value
10
121
1
362
-16
115
36
203
400
200
300
150
200
100
100
50
0
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Natural Rubber
300
250
Million Kg
Tea
600
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
Volume Mn Kg
Price Rs/Kg
Rs/Kg
Agriculture Product Export
Growth (%):
2002-2012
350
Agricultural Products
Average Price (Rs per Kg)
70
1200
60
1000
50
800
40
Tea Bags
Packets
Bulk
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
Tea Bags
Packets
Bulk
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2005
2012
2011
2010
0
2009
0
2008
200
2007
10
2006
400
2005
20
2006
600
30
2004
Percentage
Composition of Tea Exports
Instant tea
Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
Agricultural Products
600
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
Labour Force (000' persons)
Daily wages (incl price share and incentive)
1
0
COP (USD/Kg)
Source: Statistical Information on Plantation Crops
Vietnam
200
Kenya
300
2
India
400
Bangladesh
500
3
Sri Lanka
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
Cost of Production and Productivity- Tea
Rs per Day
000' Persons
Employment and Wages - Plantations
Productivity (000Kg/ha/yr)
Product Concentration
Product Concentration of Exports at HS 4 digit
59 61
49 52
Composition of Exports by Product
Diamonds
Spices
Rubber products
36 35
Tea
Petroleum products
Apparel
CR(5)
CR(10)
2005
CR (15)
2012
Other
0
10
2012
Central Bank Annual Reports and Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
20
30
40
2002
50
Market Concentration
Direction of Exports (As a % of Total Exports)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Market Concentration of Exports
(% of Total Exports)
82
75
74
66
62
Asa
EU
USA
Other
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
51
CR(5)
Asia - India
Central Bank Annual Reports and Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
CR(10)
2005
2012
CR(15)
Services Exports
1000
0.01
500
0.00
0
World Exports (USD BN)
2012
0.02
2010
1500
2008
0.03
2006
2000
2004
0.04
2002
2500
2000
0.05
1998
3000
1996
0.06
1994
3500
1992
0.07
1990
4000
1988
0.08
1986
4500
1984
0.09
1982
5000
1980
0.10
Share of Sri Lanka
Source: World Trade Organisation
Value USD Bn
% Share
Commercial Services: Value of World Exports and the Market Share of Sri Lanka
Services Exports
Exports as a % of Total World Export of Commercial Services
3.50
3.00
2.50
India
Malaysia
2.00
Sri Lanka
Viet Nam
1.50
Indonesia
Thailand
1.00
0.50
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
0.00
Services Exports
Ranking of Sri Lanka
Global Locations Index 2011
Export Earnings: USD Million
Total Score
1200
21
Business Environment
1000
People, skills and availability
800
Financial Attractiveness
600
44
33
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index
Rank out of 140 countries (2013)
400
200
Availability of qualified
labor
IT/BPO Sector
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0
Tourism Sector
112
ICT infrastructure
116
Tourism infrastructure
108
Environmental
sustainability
119
Overal rank
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Annual Reports
& Export Development Board
74
0
50
100
Source of Export Growth
Intensive Margin or Extensive Margin?
Shift in Product Composition: 2005 & 2012
(Change as a % of Exports):
62
71
39
63
84
95
24
44
87
08
20
21
85
89
11
53
38
03
23
61
09
40
-8.0
-3.0
HS
Description
62
71
39
63
84
95
24
44
87
Apparel – not Knitted or crocheted
Precious stones
Plastics/articles thereof
Made up textile articles
Machinery and parts
Toys, games, sports equip.
Tobacco, manufac. Tobacco
Wood and articles thereof
Vehicle spare parts
08
20
Coconuts/fruits
Preparations vegetables, fruits
21
85
89
11
Misc. edible preparations
Electrical machinery and parts
Ships, boats
Milling industry products
53
38
03
23
Veg. textile fibers
Misc. chemical products
Fish
Residues from food indus/animal feed
61
09
40
Apparel – Knitted or crocheted
Tea and spices
Rubber and articles thereof
2.0
Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
Source of Export Growth
Intensive Margin or Extensive Margin?
Annual Average Growth (%) :
2006 - 2012
39
61
71
63
95
24
62
09
87
03
44
53
84
40
08
85
38
11
20
23
21
89
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
HS
Description
39
61
71
63
95
61
24
09
87
03
44
53
84
40
08
Plastics/articles thereof
Apparel – not Knitted or crocheted
Precious stones
Made up textile articles
Toys, games, sports equip.
Apparel – Knitted or crocheted
Tobacco, manufac. Tobacco
Tea and spices
Vehicle spare parts
Fish
Wood and articles thereof
Veg. textile fibers
Machinery and parts
Rubber and articles thereof
Coconuts/fruits
85
38
11
20
Electrical machinery and parts
Misc. chemical products
Milling industry products
Preparations vegetables, fruits
23
21
49
89
Residues from food indus/animal feed
Misc. edible preparations
Printed books, papers, pictures
Ships, boats
Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
Source of Export Growth
Intensive Margin or Extensive Margin?
Change in Direction of Exports: 2005 &2012
U.S.A.
INDIA
U.KING.
SPAIN
SNGAPOR
FRANCE
JAPAN
U.ARB.E
SU.ARAB
SYRIA
NETHLDS
ISRAEL
HG KONG
MALDIVE
PAKISTN
UKRAINE
SWEDEN
RUSSIA
THAILND
BANGLA
MEXICO
CANADA
AUSTRAL
SWITZLD
LIBYA
AZBIJAN
GERMANY
MALYSIA
INDNSIA
TURKEY
IRAQ
CHINA
BELGIUM
IRAN
ITALY
-10.0
-5.0
Average Export Growth (2005-2012)
U.S.A.
INDIA
SPAIN
TOTAL
U.K.
FRANCE
JAPAN
U.A.E.
SYRIA
NETHERLANDS
RUSSIA
GERMENY
BELGIUM
CANADA
PAKISTAN
AUSTRALIA
SAUDI ARABIA
HONG KONG
ISRAEL
MEXICO
UKRAINE
MALDIVES
IRAN
SWITZERLAND
ITALY
TURKEY
THAILAND
SWEDEN
BANGLADESH
CHINA
SINGAPORE
IRAQ
INDONESIA
MALAYSIA
LIBYA
AZERBAIJAIN
0.0
5.0
Source: Sri Lanka Customs Statistics
0
20
40
60
Exports to Asia
Exports to Selected Asian Countries
(China, S. Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore)
40
35
As a % of Total Exports
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Thailand
Vietnam
India
Pakistan
Source: www.trademap.org
Sri Lanka
Exports from Sri Lanka:
Shrinking Share in a Growing Market
20
0.03%
6
0.02%
4
0.01%
2
0.00%
0
World Exports
Share of Sri Lanka
2011
8
2008
0.04%
2005
10
2002
0.05%
1999
12
1996
0.06%
1993
14
1990
0.07%
1987
16
1984
0.08%
1981
18
1978
0.09%
World Export Value USD TN
% Share of Sri Lanka
0.10%
World Export Value of Merchandise Exports
and World Market Share of Sri Lanka
Time Taken to Double World
Exports
USD Trillion
19791991
19912003
20032008
2-4
4-8
8-16
13 Years
13 Years
6 Years
?
Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?
Share of Agricultural Products and Clothing Exports in World Exports
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
Agriculture products
Clothing
Source: World Trade Organisation
Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?
Source: Key Trends in International Merchandise Trade, UNCTAD, 2013
Exports from Sri Lanka: In Shrinking Markets?
Share of World Imports
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0
Developed economies
Developing economies
Developing economies: Asia
Source: UNCTAD International Trade Statistics
Thank You!

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