Lec 1 – Gen Perera - defence seminar 2014

Report
NATIONAL SECURITY
CONCERNS, TRENDS
&
CHALLENGES
OF
SRI LANKA
By
Major General Udaya Perera
RWP RSP USP USAWC psc M.Sc(IND) M.Sc(USA) NDU-CT(USA)
INTRODUCTION
MONGOLIA
IRAQ
IRAN
CHINA
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
NEPAL BHUTAN
INDIA BANGLADESH
Sri Lanka
Maldives Island
Indian Ocean
Pacific Ocean
JAFFNA
KILINOCHCHI
MULLAITTIVU
MULAITHIVU
MANNAR
VAVUNIYA
TRINCOMALEE
ANURADHAPURA
BATTICALOA
KANDY
COLOMBO
HAMBANTHOTA
GALLE
His Excellency Mahinda Rajapaksa
The President of the Democratic Socialist Republic of
Sri Lanka
THEN
NOW
THEN
NOW
THEN
NOW
KILINOCHCHI
Water Supply System
Destroyed by the LTTE
JAFFNA
KILINOCHCHI
TRINCOMALEE
BATTICALOA
KANDY
COLOMBO
HAMBANTOTA
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
UNHRC
Media
REGIONAL
Tamil
Population
65 Millions
• SAARC
• National
Political Parties
NATIONAL
SOUTH
•
•
•
•
Defence
Intelligence
Para Military
Police
GoSL
Economy
• Business
• Other Minority
Communities
• Bureaucracy
Tamil Pop
North & East
1,611,036
CONSENSUS / MODERATE
Slackers
Sri Lankan
Refugees
Arab
Spring
Nations Supporting
Pro LTTE Org
Media
Media
• Tamil Elam Supporters
Org (TESO)
• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Tamilnadu
Factor
• Unemployed
• NEETs
• Under Employed
• Trade Unions
• Cooperates
• Indian Tamils
•
•
•
•
•
•
• Pro Govt Political
Elements
• Anti LTTE Media
Enablers
• Neutral Nations
• Friendly Nations
NORTH
&
EAST
EU
Global
Tamil
Population
74 Million
GLOBAL
• TGTE
• GTF ( Global Tamil
Forum)
• HQ GP
• ICET (Intl. Council of
Eelam Tamils)
• BTF (British Tamil
Forum)
• TCF (Tamil Centre
France)
Aggressors
UN / INGO
TAMIL
DIASPORA
NGO / INGO
Media
• Political Parties with
Extremist Ideologies
Tamil pop
3 Million
South – 46%
North – 54%
•
NGO / INGO
• Political Parties
with Separatist
Ideology
• Media Promoting
Separatist Ideology
• Extremist
Religious Elements
War Widows
Unemployed
Beneficiaries
Disables
Displaced
Indian Tamil
Internationalization of
Local Political Issues
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
“Nations have No Permanent
Friends or Foes, they only have
Permanent Interests”
- Lord Palmerston
(VUCA)
Volatile, Uncertain, Complex &
Ambiguous
1. Common Global Threats
and Challenges
2. New Trends, Challenges and
Concerns on National Security
of Sri Lanka in Post Conflict
Context
COMMON GLOBAL THREATS AND
CHALLENGES
•
Nuclear
•
Biological
•
Cyber
•
Transnational Crimes
•
Terrorism
•
Environment/Climatic Changes
and Natural Disasters
•
Nuclear
•
Biological
•
Cyber
•
Transnational Crimes
•
Terrorism
•
Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
Tsunami 2011
•
Nuclear
•
Biological
•
Cyber
•
Transnational Crimes
•
Terrorism
•
Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
•
Nuclear
•
Biological
•
Cyber
•
Transnational Crimes
•
Terrorism
•
Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
(NEET)
Not in Education, Employment or Training
Sleep During the Day
NEETs
Anti Social
Activities
Active During the Night
Net Intrusions
Drug Trafficking
Robberies
Arms
Smuggling
Child
Abuse
Man in the
Middle
Attacks
Unethical
Hacking
Premeditated
Crimes
Counterfeiting
•
Nuclear
•
Biological
•
Cyber
•
Transnational Organized Crimes
•
Terrorism
•
Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
Drug Trade
Arms Smuggling
Human Traffckling
Marijuana
Illegal Gambling
Cocaine
Prescription Drugs
Heroin
Software Piracy
Oil Theft
Cigarette Smuggling
Counterfeit Foods
Counterfeit Auto Parts
Counterfeit Toys
Counterfeit Electronics
Illegal Logging
Methamphetamine
Illegal Fishing
Human Smuggling
Wildlife Trafficking
Ecstasy
Music Piracy
Counterfeit Shoes
Counterfeit Clothing
Waste Dumping
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
Art Theft
Cable Piracy
Video Game Piracy
Counterfeit Sporting Goods
Counterfeit Pesticides
Alcohol Smuggling
Mobile Entertainment Piracy
Counterfeit Cosmetics
Movie Piracy
Metals and Minerals Smuggling
Counterfeit Aircraft Parts
Counterfeit Weapons
Kidnap and Ransom
International Adoptions
Fake Diplomas and Degrees
Prostitution
Counterfeit Watches
Book Piracy
Counterfeit Money
Nuclear Smuggling
Counterfeit IDs and Passports
Organ Trafficking
Counterfeit Purses
Counterfeit Lighters
Counterfeit Batteries
•
Nuclear
•
Biological
•
Cyber
•
Transnational Crimes
•
Terrorism
•
Environment/Climatic Changes and
Natural Disasters
“All terrorists share one common
denominator; they “live” in the future,
and are convinced that they will defeat
their enemies and achieve their
political goals”
- Bruce Hoffman
STRATEGY
AL QAIDA & OTHER TERR GP?
GLOBAL
PROCUREMENT– KP
DIASPORA
GTF
KADALPURA - SHIPPING
TCC BTA
BTF TGTE TCF
ICET
DRUG TRAFFICKING
TRO
INT
WORLD TAMIL MOV
FINANCE
TAMIL NET
TRADES/VENTURES
SEA PIRACYSEA TIGERS
PROPAGANDA
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
ARMS SMUGGLING
REGIONAL
LOCAL
HUMAN SMUGGLING
ASSASSINATIONS
DE-STAB ADMIN
TERRORISM
SABOTAGE
SOUTH
PSY OPS
TERRORISM
DE-STAB ECONOMY
VIOLATING HR
DE-STAB ECONOMY
EAST
CHILD REC
 STRENGTHENING OF ETHNIC ENCLAVES
COUNTER STATE
ETHNIC CLEANSING
MECHANISM
NORTH
LTTE
LTTE
TERR
ATTACKS
EXTORTIONS
FORCED RECRUITMENTS
EXTORTIONS
FORCED LABOUR
VIOLATING HR
LOW
HIGH
THREAT SEVERITY
David C. Rapoport
FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM
1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901)
2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960)
3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000)
4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025)
Dr. Tom Marks
In “INSURGENCY” - Terrorism is a Method
In “TERRORISM”
- Terrorism is a Logic
COUNTER STATE MECHANISM
JAFFNA
MUHAMALAI
KILINOCHCHI
WELIOYA
ARIPPU
SILAWATTURAI
VIRTUAL COUNTER STATE
13,000 Km2

ETHNIC CLEANSING

STRENGTHENING ETHNIC
ENCLAVES

FORMING OF LAND, NAVAL &
AIR WINGS

BUILT NUMBER OF AIR
STRIPS – LINKING THE
WORLD
ILLEGAL TAXATION AND
BANKING
MULAITHIVU
KILINOCHCHI
MANNAR

OMANTHAI
PULMODDAI
VAVUNIYA
TRINCOMALEE
TRINCOMALEE
HOROWPOTHANA
SAMPOOR
ANURADHAPURA
MAVILARU
VAKARAI
MINNERIYA
HABARANA

DAMBULLA
BATTICALOA
BATTICALOA
KARADIYANARU
MAHAOYA
KANDY
SMUGGLING ARMS/AMMO

CONVENTIONAL FORM OF
DEFENCES

CONSCRIPTION

ILLEGAL COURTS

ILLEGAL POLICE

ILLEGAL STAMPS & POSTAL

COMMUNICATION NETWORK
AMPARA
NEGAMBO
NUWARAELIYA
COLOMBO
KUMANA
DEMANDED EELAM
GALLE
TERRITORY – 19,000 Km2

HAMBANTHOTA
STRATEGY
AL QAIDA & OTHER TERR GP?
GLOBAL
DIASPORA
PROCUREMENT– KP
LTTE
WORLD TAMIL MOV
GTF
KADALPURA - SHIPPING FINANCE
TGTE TCC BTA
TCF
BTF
TAMIL NET
ICET
TRADES/VENTURES
DRUG TRAFFICKING
TRO
INT
SEA PIRACYSEA TIGERS
PROPAGANDA
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
ARMS SMUGGLING
REGIONAL
LOCAL
HUMAN SMUGGLING
ASSASSINATIONS
DE-STAB ADMIN
TERRORISM
SABOTAGE
SOUTH
PSY OPS
TERRORISM
DE-STAB ECONOMY
VIOLATING HR
DE-STAB ECONOMY
EAST
CHILD REC
COUNTER STATE
MECHANISM
NORTH
LTTE
TERR
ATTACKS
EXTORTIONS
FORCED RECRUITMENTS
EXTORTIONS
FORCED LABOUR
VIOLATING HR
LOW
DEFEAT
OF
• ISOLATED
THE LTTE
•Unorganized
•Localized
•Non-sponsored
HIGH
THREAT SEVERITY
1ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901)
2ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960)
3RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000)
4TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025)
5TH - ?
•
Nuclear
•
Biological
•
Cyber
•
Transnational Crimes
•
Terrorism
•
Challenges and Security Threats
due to Environment/Climatic
Changes and Natural Disasters
NEW TRENDS, CHALLENGES AND
CONCERNS ON NATIONAL
SECURITY OF SRI LANKA
IN POST CONFLICT CONTEXT
• Ideological
• Constituting Ethnic Enclaves
• Non State Actors
• Perception
• Ideological Threat and International
Network
• Destabilization Through Constituting
Ethnic and Religious Enclaves
• Non State Actors
• Perception
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
UNHRC
Media
• SAARC
REGIONAL
Tamil
Population
65 Millions
• National
Political Parties
NATIONAL
SOUTH
•
•
•
•
Defence
Intelligence
Para Military
Police
GoSL
Economy
• Business
• Other Minority
Communities
• Bureaucracy
Tamil Pop
North & East
1,611,036
CONSENSUS / MODERATE
Slackers
Sri Lankan
Refugees
Arab
Spring
Nations Supporting
Pro LTTE Org
Media
Media
Aggressors
• Tamil Elam Supporters
Org (TESO)
• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Tamilnadu
Factor
• Unemployed
• NEETs
• Under Employed
• Trade Unions
• Cooperates
• Indian Tamils
•
•
•
•
•
•
• Pro Govt Political
Elements
• Anti
LTTE
Media
Enablers
• Neutral Nations
• Friendly Nations
NORTH
&
EAST
EU
Global
Tamil
Population
74 Million
GLOBAL
• TGTE
• GTF
• HQ GP
• ICET
• BTF
•TCF
UN / INGO
TAMIL
DIASPORA
NGO / INGO
Media
• Political Parties with
Extremist Ideologies
Tamil pop
3 Million
South – 46%
North – 54%
•
NGO / INGO
• Political Parties
with Separatist
Ideology
• Media Promoting
Separatist Ideology
• Extremist
Religious Elements
War Widows
Unemployed
Beneficiaries
Disables
Displaced
Indian Tamil
Internationalization of
Local Political Issues
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
TGTE - Transactional Government of Tamil Eelam
BTF
- British Tamil Forum
MTF
- Malaysian Tamil Forum
HQ GP - Headquarter Group
TCC
- Tamil Coordinating Committee
GTF
- Global Tamil Forum
PRESENT LTTE INTERNATIONAL NETWORK
TGTE
V RUDRAKUMARAN
PRIME MINISTER
GTF
DR. S. J. EMMANUEL
PRESIDENT
TCC
PERINBANAYAGAM
SIVAPARAN
@ NEDIYAWAN
LEADER
HQ GROUP
SEKARAPILLAI
VINAGAMOORTHI @
VINAYAGAM @ ARIVALAGAN
SENIOR INTELLIGENCE
LEADER
BTF
TCF
MTF
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
UNHRC
Media
Global
Tamil
Population
74 Million
GLOBAL
• Friendly Nations
• SAARC
REGIONAL
Tamil
Population
65 Millions
• National
Political Parties
NATIONAL
SOUTH
•
•
•
•
NORTH
&
EAST
Defence
Intelligence
Para Military
Police
GoSL
Economy
• Business
• Other Minority
Communities
• Bureaucracy
• Anti
LTTE
Media
Tamil Pop
North & East
1,611,036
CONSENSUS / MODERATE
Enablers
Slackers
Sri Lankan
Refugees
Arab
Spring
Nations Supporting
` Org
Pro LTTE
Media
Media
Aggressors
• Tamil Elam Supporters
Org (TESO)
• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Tamilnadu
Factor
• Unemployed
• NEETs
• Under Employed
• Trade Unions
• Cooperates
• Indian Tamils
•
•
•
•
•
•
• Pro Govt Political
Elements
`
EU
Economic
Refugees
• Neutral Nations
• TGTE
• GTF
• HQ GP
• ICET
• BTF
•TCF
UN / INGO
TAMIL
DIASPORA
NGO / INGO
Media
• Political Parties with
Extremist Ideologies
Tamil pop
3 Million
South – 46%
North – 54%
•
NGO / INGO
• Political Parties
with Separatist
Ideology
• Media Promoting
Separatist Ideology
• Extremist
Religious Elements
War Widows
Unemployed
Beneficiaries
Disables
Displaced
Indian Tamil
Internationalization of
Local Political Issues
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
• Ideological Threat and International
Network
• Destabilization Through Constituting
Ethnic and Religious Enclaves
• Non State Actors
• Perception
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
UNHRC
Media
• SAARC
REGIONAL
NATIONAL
Defence
Intelligence
Para Military
Police
GoSL
Economy
• Business
• Other Minority
Communities
Media
• Bureaucracy
Tamil Pop
North & East
1,611,036
CONSENSUS / MODERATE
Aggressors
• Tamil Elam Supporters
Org (TESO)
• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Tamilnadu
Factor
• Unemployed
• NEETs
• Under Employed
• Trade Unions
• Cooperates
• Indian Tamils
•
•
•
•
•
•
• Pro Govt Political
Elements
• Anti
LTTE
Media
Arab
Spring
Media
• National
Political Parties
•
•
•
•
Nations Supporting
Pro LTTE Org
Slackers
Sri Lankan
Refugees
Tamil
Population
65 Millions
SOUTH
Enablers
• Neutral Nations
• Friendly Nations
NORTH
&
EAST
EU
Global
Tamil
Population
74 Million
GLOBAL
• TGTE
• GTF
• HQ GP
• ICET
• BTF
•TCF
UN / INGO
TAMIL
DIASPORA
NGO / INGO
Media
• Political Parties with
Extremist Ideologies
Tamil pop
3 Million
South – 46%
North – 54%
•
NGO / INGO
• Political Parties
with Separatist
Ideology
• Media Promoting
Separatist Ideology
• Extremist
Religious Elements
War Widows
Unemployed
Beneficiaries
Disables
Displaced
Indian Tamil
Internationalization of
Local Political Issues
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
Ethnic Enclave
EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
• Ideological Threat and International
Network
• Destabilization Through Constituting
Ethnic and Religious Enclaves
• Non State Actors
• Perception
Violent
Non State
Actors
Non Violent
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
UNHRC
Media
• SAARC
REGIONAL
Tamil
Population
65 Millions
• National
Political Parties
NATIONAL
SOUTH
•
•
•
•
Defence
Intelligence
Para Military
Police
Economy
GoSL
• Business
• Other Minority
Communities
• Bureaucracy
Tamil Pop
North & East
1,611,036
CONSENSUS / MODERATE
Nations Supporting
Pro LTTE Org
Slackers
Sri Lankan
Refugees
Arab
Spring
Tamilnadu
Factor
• Unemployed
• NEETs
• Under Employed
• Trade Unions
• Cooperates
• Indian Tamils
Media
Aggressors
• Tamil Elam Supporters
Org (TESO)
• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Media
•
•
•
•
•
•
• Pro Govt Political
Elements
• Anti
LTTE
Media
Enablers
• Neutral Nations
• Friendly Nations
NORTH
&
EAST
EU
Global
Tamil
Population
74 Million
GLOBAL
• TGTE
• GTF
• HQ GP
• ICET
• BTF
•TCF
UN / INGO
TAMIL
DIASPORA
NGO / INGO
Media
• Political Parties with
Extremist Ideologies
Tamil pop
3 Million
South – 46%
North – 54%
•
NGO / INGO
• Political Parties
with Separatist
Ideology
• Media Promoting
Separatist Ideology
• Extremist
Religious Elements
War Widows
Unemployed
Beneficiaries
Disables
Displaced
Indian Tamil
Internationalization of
Local Political Issues
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
Ethnic Enclave
EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
TREATY OF WESTPHALIA
1648
PRINCIPLE OF TREATY OF
WESTPHALIA
•
Sovereignty
•
Equality
•
Internationally Binding Treaties
•
Non Intervention of Internal Affairs
• Ideological Threat and International
Network
• Destabilization Through Constituting
Ethnic and Religious Enclaves
• Non State Actors
• Perception
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT
Media
EU
Global
Tamil
Population
74 Million
GLOBAL
• Friendly Nations
UNHRC
• Neutral Nations
• SAARC
REGIONAL
Tamil
Population
65 Millions
UN / INGO
TAMIL
DIASPORA
Enablers
Nations Supporting
Pro LTTE Org
Slackers
Sri Lankan
Refugees
Arab
Spring
NATIONAL
• National
Political Parties
•
•
•
•
NORTH
&
EAST
Defence
Intelligence
Para Military
Police
GoSL
Economy
• Business
• Other Minority
Communities
Media
•
•
•
•
•
•
• Pro Govt Political
Elements
• Bureaucracy
• Anti LTTE
Media
• Unemployed
• NEETs
• Under Employed
• Trade Unions
• Cooperates
• Indian Tamils
Tamil Pop
North & East
1,611,036
CONSENSUS / MODERATE
NGO / INGO
Aggressors
• Tamil Elam Supporters
Org (TESO)
• Pro LTTE Political Gps
Media
SOUTH
• TGTE
• GTF
• HQ GP
• ICET
• BTF
•TCF
Tamilnadu
Factor
Media
• Political Parties with
Extremist Ideologies
Tamil pop
3 Million
South – 46%
North – 54%
War Widows
Unemployed
Beneficiaries
Disables
Displaced
Indian Tamil
• NGO / INGO
• TNA (Tamil
National Alliance)
•Media Promoting
Separatist
Ideology
• Extremist
Religious
Elements
Internationalization of
Local Political Issues
VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL
EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM
CONCLUSION
MEANS
WAYS (6R)
ENDS
Reconstituting the
Government authority
over LTTE controlled
Elements areas through
Humanitarian Operation
of
National
5R
Power
Reconstruction
Resettlement
Rehabilitation
Reintegration
Reconciliation
PEACE
Conflict
Sustainable
PEACE
Post
Conflict
&
DEVELOPMENT
THANK YOU

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