Trade Expansion in a Time of Economic Crisis? Following the Trans

Report
Deborah Elms
September 2012
[email protected]
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Eleven countries, three continents, diverse
levels of economic development
◦ Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico,
New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, Vietnam
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“High quality, 21st century” agreement
Accession clause
◦ Open to new members, especially from APEC
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Fourteen formal negotiating rounds held,
starting in March 2010
Canada and Mexico join in 15th round, Dec ‘12
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1. Substantial scope
◦ Including “behind the border” measures
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2. Depth
◦ Limited sensitivities
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3. Shared set of norms and commitments
Beyond bilateral arrangements
◦ Address noodle bowl problems of overlapping PTAs
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Attractive to developed and developing
country members
Note: 21st century, high quality has not been
defined by government negotiators
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Section 1: Origins of the TPP
◦ P4 agreement, US templates, development
◦ Historical review of negotiations (thru Nov 2011)
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Section 2: Details of agreement
◦ What would a high quality deal look like anyway?
◦ How close does the TPP appear to come to ideal?
◦ Chapters cover: market access in goods, ROOs,
services, investment, IPR, regulatory coherence,
labor, environment, potential export rules
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Section 3: Connection of TPP to other PTAs
◦ Latin America, APEC, ASEAN, WTO, Regionalism
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Existing, overlapping, FTAs pose major
problems: most serious in goods
Has severely complicated negotiations over
both tariff reductions and over ROOs
Complex structural negotiating positions
◦ United States and Peru
◦ Rest in a “plurilateral” offer on goods
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Officially, no exclusions
Ten-year timeline
At end of 10 years, may be all sorted
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Specific areas of concern
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Dairy
Sugar
Textiles
Footwear
Tobacco
Autos?
Quantitative restrictions (TRQs): not yet dealt
with (complicated because also in PTAs)
Rules of origin
◦ Product-specific ROOs so far
◦ Yarn-forward likely for most textiles
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Deadline of 2012 not going to be met
Perhaps APEC, November 2013?
◦ Depends in part on Canada, Mexico
◦ Japan?
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Political level decisions needed
Tensions within agreement-managing
strategic and economic needs
Accession procedures into TPP in future?
Status as a “living” agreement
High quality: compared to what
benchmark?
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For market access in goods
◦ No exclusions, including sensitive products in
agriculture
◦ No special provisions for textiles
◦ Phase out of quantitative restrictions?
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Liberal Rules of Origin criteria
In services
◦ Liberalize on basis of negative list
◦ Modest sensitivities allowed
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New topics, new ideas brought to table
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Market Access-Goods
State-Owned
Enterprises
Agriculture
Textiles
Technical Barriers to
Trade
Rules of Origin
Sanitary, Phytosanitary
Measures
Customs Cooperation
Investment
Services
Financial Services
Telecommunications
E-Commerce
Business Mobility
Government
Procurement
Competition
Intellectual Property
Labor
Environment
Capacity Building
Trade Remedies
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TPP members committed to including “new”
issues—21st century topics
Several topics lumped into horizontal basket
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Small and medium enterprise (SME) support
Regulatory coherence
Competitiveness
Supply chain management
Development
As negotiations continue, innovative features
increasingly watered down
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Simple Average Final WTO Bound Tariff (2010)
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
Total
20.0
Ag
10.0
Non-Ag
0.0
Non-Ag
Total
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Simple Average WTO MFN Applied Tariff (2009)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Total
5.0
Ag
0.0
Non-Ag
Non-Ag
Total
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WTO Applied Tariff Rates 2009
Animal products
Dairy products
140.0
Fruit, vegetables, plants
120.0
Coffee, tea
100.0
Cereals & preparations
80.0
Oilseeds, fats & oils
60.0
Sugars and confectionery
40.0
Beverages & tobacco
20.0
Cotton
Vietnam
United States
Singapore
Peru
New Zealand
Mexico
Malaysia
Other agricultural
Chile
Canada
Brunei
Australia
0.0
Fish & fish products
Minerals & metals
Petroleum
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Manufactures, n.e.s.
Transport equipment
Electrical machinery
Non-electrical machinery
Leather, footwear, etc.
Clothing
Textiles
Wood, paper, etc.
Chemicals
Petroleum
Minerals & metals
Fish & fish products
Other agricultural
Cotton
Beverages & tobacco
Sugars and confectionery
Oilseeds, fats & oils
Cereals & preparations
Coffee, tea
Animal products
Dairy products
Fruit, vegetables, plants
WTO Applied Tariff Rates 2009
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Australia
Brunei
Canada
Chile
Malaysia
Mexico
New Zealand
Peru
Singapore
United States
Vietnam
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Regulatory coherence
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Small and medium enterprises
◦ Especially focused on TBT issues
◦ Single regulatory agency?
◦ Binding?
◦ Folded into competitiveness and business
facilitation
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Development
◦ Timelines
◦ Capacity building
◦ Financing
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Maintain own labor laws as per 1998 ILO
Declaration
Not core ILO provisions
Will apply to EPZs and free trade zones
How to handle complaints?
Connection between TPP and previous FTA
commitments on labor
Dispute settlement?
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How to push conservation—at TPP or
national level?
Uphold commitments under signed MEAs
Conservation of natural resources and
wildlife
◦ Includes fish, logging, trade in wildlife, CITES
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TPP and climate change
Public participation?
Dispute settlement?
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State-owned enterprises
Export competition
◦ Agricultural subsidies and food aid programs
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E-commerce rules
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Extent of dispute settlement
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◦ Cross-border data flows and storage facility
locations
◦ Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) rules?
◦ Investor-state?
Government procurement
Trade remedies
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TPP is farthest reaching IP FTA yet
◦ Much more intrusive than TRIPS in WTO
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Access to medicines issues
◦ Data exclusivity, patent linkage, patent term
extensions (access window)
◦ Biologics
◦ Drug pricing and reimbursement programs
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Copyright
Trade secrets
Local content requirements (for broadcast)
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Geographical indications
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Enforcement
◦ Third-party FTA commitments
◦ Compound names
◦ “Commercial scale”
◦ “Willful” infringement
◦ ACTA vs. TPP provisions
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Internet service providers
◦ 3 step test
◦ Fair use exceptions
◦ Retransmission
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