Florida Economic Forecast for 2015

Report
by
Albert Williams, Ph.D.,
Associate Professor of Finance and Economics
Huizenga School of Business
Source: Wikipedia.com
GDP for Florida and USA - 2013
Industry
All industry total
Private industries
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods manufacturing
Nondurable goods manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
USA
2013
($million)
16,701,415.00
14,613,827.00
269,099.00
449,352.00
287,068.00
611,374.00
2,079,518.00
1,096,437.00
983,081.00
998,685.00
956,302.00
490,257.00
802,378.00
3,293,209.00
1,114,594.00
2,178,614.00
100%
88%
2%
3%
2%
4%
12%
7%
Florida
2013
($million)
800,492.00
700,423.00
9,086.00
2,478.00
15,173.00
34,705.00
39,616.00
23,556.00
6%
6%
6%
3%
5%
20%
7%
13%
16,060.00
56,490.00
61,580.00
24,540.00
30,927.00
177,675.00
44,522.00
133,153.00
Percent
Percent
100%
87%
1%
0%
2%
4%
5%
3%
2%
7%
8%
3%
4%
22%
6%
17%
GDP for Florida and USA - 2013
Professional and business services
2,005,337.00
12%
98,807.00
12%
1,172,107.00
7%
54,603.00
7%
Management of companies and enterprises
327,891.00
2%
12,568.00
2%
Administrative and waste management services
505,340.00
3%
31,635.00
4%
1,388,015.00
8%
77,562.00
10%
187,077.00
1%
8,232.00
1%
1,200,938.00
7%
69,331.00
9%
622,603.00
4%
50,498.00
6%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
162,548.00
1%
15,328.00
2%
Accommodation and food services
460,054.00
3%
35,170.00
4%
360,630.00
2%
21,284.00
3%
2,087,589.00
12%
100,069.00
13%
718,451.00
4%
11,565.00
1%
1,954,987.00
12%
118,070.00
15%
777,325.00
5%
39,713.00
5%
Private goods-producing industries
3,409,343.00
20%
85,886.00
11%
Private services-providing industries
11,204,483.00
67%
614,537.00
77%
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Educational services, health care, and social assistance
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food
services
Other services, except government
Government
Addenda:
Natural resources and mining
Trade
Transportation and utilities
GDP growth rate for Florida is 2.2 percent in 2013
In terms of real GDP growth rate, Florida grew at 2.2 percent,
which among the ten largest states was the third highest rate.
INFLATION - CONSUMER PRICE INDEX,MIAMI-FORT
LAUDERDALE – AUGUST 2014
Area prices down 0.1 percent over the two months;
up 2.4 percent over the year
Source: BLS
Employment and Unemployment - Florida
Source: BLS
Source: BLS
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business
Research Office, University of Florida
Consumer sentiment improving in Florida
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research Office, University of Florida
Home Prices - U.S. and Miami
¾ percent increase from August 2014 to September 2014
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research Office, University of Florida
Median list price is much higher than median sale price
- approximately $50,000 difference! County level will be different!
Summary of Florida
 GDP growth rate is 2.2 percent in 2013. Forecasted to be above 2 percent




for 2014 and 2015
Unemployment dropping
House prices increasing
Consumer confidence increasing
Reasonably optimistic forecast
Economic
Assessment:
Recommendations:
Implications
 Be cautious
 Do not forget your financial cushion

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