The TBEST Framework for Data Analysis and Forecasting

Report
September 17, 2013
Center for Urban Transportation Research | University of South Florida
TBEST
Transit Boardings Estimation and Simulation Tool
Transit Demand Modeling/Analysis Software developed by
the Florida Department of Transportation Office of Freight,
Logistics and Passenger Operations
FDOT Goal
Provide a “Comprehensive Transit Network Modeling,
Management and Analysis Software with a focus on short to midterm transit planning available to all Florida transit agencies”
Support Agency Transit Development Plans (TDP):
TBEST is an FDOT approved ridership estimation
methodology
TBEST Utilization
Provide workflow support for the following:
• Service Planning
• Comprehensive Operational
Analysis (COA)
• Grant Applications
Transit Planning/Forecasting Software
• FTA Title VI Analysis
Short and
• Mobility Studies
Operations
Long Range
mid-term
• NTD Route Miles
Cube
Hastus
Voyager
Trapeze
TBEST
• Market Analysis
TransCAD
Others…
Others…
• Network Accessibility
Framework Components
•
•
•
•
Model Development
Application
Analysis
Reporting and Output
Managing Components
TBEST Transit System
• Composed of model scenarios
which contain editable routes,
stops, socio-economic data and
network attributes
• All GIS/database files managed
internally
• Download pre-formatted SE data
• Managed Model Validation
• Customizable model structure
• Easily create current or future year
scenarios
Transit Data Management
Supporting Data
Dataset
Source
Socio-Demographic
Census 2010 and ACS
Employment
InfoUSA (or local zonal data)
Land Use (Parcel-Level)
Florida Department of
Revenue
Network
Download or GTFS
Special Generators
Agency
Socio-Economic Growth Rates
Bureau of Economic and
Business Research
Observed Ridership for
Validation
Agency
FDOT
Provided
TBEST GIS Specifications
• Desktop application requiring ArcGIS 10.1 Basic license
• Utilizes ArcGIS Engine for map display, spatial analysis and
network editing
• ESRI personal geodatabase stores transit layers and socioeconomic data geometry
• Demographics, service characteristics, and model output
stored in SQL Server 2008 R2 (Express or Enterprise editions)
• No Network Analyst or ArcSDE required
• Utilizes ESRI Map Services, Bing Maps or preformatted .mxd
for base map
• No fee for TBEST except ArcGIS license
Model Specifications
• Micro-level model which simulates transit ridership at the
level of the individual stop: by route, direction and time
period
• Designed to capture both walk market and network
accessibility
• Model equations estimate direct and transfer boardings
• Accommodate service features of fare, speed, frequency, etc.
• Accommodate fundamental differences in route types (local,
circulator, express)
• Model validation process allows TBEST to adapt to different
urban locations without developing new model equations
(transferable)
Model Equations
Users are able to maintain multiple model structures which can be applied to
model scenarios
TBEST is installed with two model structures,
the classic TBEST Model which utilizes
the Census and Employment data and
the new TBEST Land Use Model which
includes trip-generation from parcel land
use data.
Available Models
New models coming online in Los Angeles and Oregon
– LA model will include specific equations for Bus and Rail
– Oregon model will include customization of the parcel level land use
model
BRT Sensitivity
TBEST now supports BRT route definition and model
sensitivity
How it works
Users specify the implementation level of specific route-level
BRT characteristics and
TBEST will adjust base
ridership forecasts with
an empirically derived
adjustment factor
Network Interoperability
• GTFS Import
– Imported networks for all FL agencies with
GTFS feeds
– Also used nationally in Ft. Worth, Portland,
Los Angeles, Savannah
• GTFS Export
– Export TBEST network into GTFS
– Added TBEST attributes to exported data
including ridership and stop amenities
• ArcGIS
– Export TBEST maps and data into ArcGIS
– Import route alignments into TBEST from
outside data sources
– Export “loaded networks” into geodatabases
Scenario Modifications
Category
Changes
Headway Adjustment
Operating Strategies
Short Turning
Route Splitting
Through Routing
Service Supply
Adjustments
Running Time Adjustments
Schedule Changes
Schedule Coordination between Routes
Span of Service Adjustments
Extend Routes
Alignment Changes
Shorten Routes
New Routes
Service Redistribution
System Changes
Network Structure
Demand
Adjustments
Fare Policy
Socio-Economic Forecasts
First-Boarding Fare
Transfer Fare
System level, Zonal level, DRI/Corridor level, Route, Segment
or Stop level
Model Reporting
Stop, Segment, Route and Regional distribution reports with supporting maps
Model Reporting
Scenario Comparison and Mobility Threshold service recommendations
Model Reporting
TDP Summary Report
Summarizes annual service area pop, employment, performance, and service for
all scenarios in a TBEST transit system
Market Analysis
• Works to summarize the intensity and distribution of
land use, socio-economic, and employment data for
a given transit market in a current year or future year
socio-economic setting
• Performed on existing or proposed network structure
or within specific DRI’s/corridors to determine the
viability of transit options in the area
• Independent of the TBEST modeling capabilities
Market Analysis
Land Use Market Analysis
Market Analysis
Socio-Economic Market Analysis
Market Analysis
FTA Title VI Analysis
Network Accessibility Analysis
• Combines TBEST transit networking origin/destination
capabilities with market and model results to produce
an interactive summarization of network accessible
markets and model output
• Network Accessibility Build - core of the accessibility
calculation which populates an origin/destination
matrix for each stop in the network
• Summarizes both outflow and inflow markets and
ridership from a selected stop, multiple stops or from
a geographic area by time of day
• Filter results by trip time and number of transfers
Network Accessibility Analysis
Network Accessible Market Analysis
Implementation Results
Win-Win-Win Situation
FDOT standardized model platform for consistent
TDP ridership reporting across agencies
Agencies have a pre-built methodology for
estimating ridership + multiple workflow support
Consultants using TBEST for TDP, COA, etc. have an
easy-to-implement ridership estimation solution
with available data, tools and modeling capabilities
Steps Underway
September 2013
– Release TBEST 4.1
– Contains online Video Tutorials
– Classroom training early 2014
January 2014
– Enhanced FTA Title VI and Environmental Justice Analysis
and Reporting
June 2014
– Parcel Editor
– Integrate Observed Ridership for COA support
October 2014
– Network Accessibility Composite Measures
Contact Information
Thank You!
www.tbest.org
Rodney Bunner
Transportation Technology Specialist
[email protected]
[email protected]
727-455-4059
Gabrielle Matthews
FDOT Project Manager
[email protected]
850-414-4532

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