FGD Penyusunan Konsep Transportasi Metropolitan Bandung Raya

Report
FGD Penyusunan Konsep Transportasi
Metropolitan Bandung Raya
Bappeda Jabar
Harun Al-Rasyid Lubis / iTB
Transit Affairs : To be More Precise ....
TOO LATE TO BE TRUE
POLICY INCONSISTENCIES
MASTERPLAN &
STUDIES ARE PILED UP
Finally ,...... MP3EI
NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES
INCREASE
Unrealistic transit plan
Improved Bus Services, BRT and
Monorail Enthusiasm
2
3
3
4
Greater Bandung Monorail
5
Split - Jabodetabek
Tantangan Moda
Pengembangan
Angmum Perkotaan
6
7
Park & Ride
USULAN TRANSPORTASI
BMA (SNCF – PT LAPI ITB,
2009)O
Sumber : SNCF – PT LAPI ITB, 2009
8
DUAL TRACK STRATEGY
 Saat ini sepeda motor menjadi pilihan.
 Agar sistem angkutan massal perkotaan dapat berfungsi optimal maka harus:
 Didukung oleh sistem feeder yang efektif
 Pola tata ruang yang ber-pola Transit Oriented Development
 Pricing policy dan kebijakan manajemen transportasi yang berbasis insentif dan dis-insentif
9
ATP WTP dan SP
Hasil sampel data Tahun 2014
Moda
WTP (Rp/trip)
Hasil analisis Tahun 2013
ATP (Rp/trip)
Angkot
12368
13438
Bus
13321
14410
Monorail vs Bus
57%
Monorail vs Angkot
43%
49%
0%
20%
P Monorail
51%
40%
60%
P Moda Lain
80%
100%
Total Penumpang Skenario Monorel BMA (%)
Modal Share Tahun 2018
Angkot
18.7%
7.2%
1.5%
DAMRI
49.9%
TMB
Kereta
22.7%
Monorel
Tahun
Modal Share Tahun 2031
45.8%
32.5%
9.3%
11.6%
8.5%
Kereta
Monorel
Total
(orang)
(orang)
(orang)
(orang)
(orang)
(orang)
71627
32635
2156
10402
26800
143620
DAMRI
2019
101577
40692
3046
14029
64474
223818
TMB
2020
114646
45917
3481
16419
74716
255179
Kereta
2021
127086
47956
3703
18415
83581
280741
Monorel
2026
164490
46977
4045
32655
146371
394538
2031
164490
46977
4045
58401
231548
505461
2036
164490
46977
4045
87524
366416
669452
2041
164490
46977
4045
127506
580044
923062
2046
164490
46977
4045
183926
918553
1317991
2051
164490
46977
4045
262424
1455144
1933080
0.2%
Angkot
DAMRI
TMB
Kereta
75.3%
TMB
2018
2.4%
13.6%
DAMRI
Angkot
0.8%
Modal Share Tahun 2051
Angkot
Monorel
12
Kurva Investasi/Km vs Tariff/km (IRR
17%)
6,000
Tariff Minimum/Km (Rp)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
10
20
30
40
50
Investasi/Km (Milyar)
13000 pph
10000 pph
16500 pph
20000 pph
60
Kurva Investasi/Km vs Tariff/km (IRR
17%)
Tariff Minimum/Km (Rp)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
10
20
30
40
50
(Milyar)100000 pph
30000 pph Investasi/Km
50000 pph
160000 pph
270000 pph
300000 pph
60
Public monopoly  Market  Partnerships (PPP)
2. Choosing Appropriate
Assessment Procedure
1. Good Public & Corporate Governance
MPW
Parliement
Constitution
MoT
MoHousing, MoHealth
Government
Regulatory Bodies
Private Sector
& SOEs
Communtiy / Civil Soceity
Profess . Assoc
Universities
NGO
Rules to be applied :
Prerequisite:
1.
2.
3.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Model good governance
Government less govern
Roles of private sect & Communtiy should be increased in
phasing ( gradually )
Formation of regulatory bodies
Clean government
Privates are capable
Industy and society are professional / mature
15
Viability, Demand Risk & Guarantees
Revenue ($)
Revenue ($)
Revenue shared with Government
CADS(1)
Revenue Cap
User paid
CADS(2)
Minimum Revenue Guarantee
Government Revenue Support
time
Tenor of Contract
Risk Allocation Framework
Optimality
Clarity
Certainty
17
18
STRUKTUR PROYEK MONORAIL JABAR (INDIKASI)
19
Existing PPP Framework – Stucked !
New Pres. Reg. 75 / 2014 KPPIP ?
20
+
Reformasi
ProposedKelembagaan
PPP Institutional Reform
Unit Kerja Presiden Untuk
Special
PPP Delivery Unit
Percepatan Pembangunan
InfrastrukturOffice
under Presidential
Government Support
-
non-sectoral
Market savvy, commercially adept
International reputation
Non-budget ministry level,
commercial set-up
- High level KPI
- High level business diplomacy
- Key stakeholder: contracting agencies
Government of Indonesia (“Gol”)
Land Fund
Guarantee Fund
(IIGF)
Land
Acquisition
Cost Recovery /
Political Risk
Preparation
Bidding
Regulatory
Reform and
Capital Market
Infrastructure Fund
PT SMI
PT IIF
Investor /
Lender
Project
Financing
Construction
Operation
21
Bernardus Djonoput ro - Navigat ing The New Indonesia!!
…..Thank you …
Terima
22

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