Vulnerability Impact Assessment Tools Panchase

Report
GON/MFSC-UNDP/UNEP-IUCN
Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Project,
Nepal
Vulnerability Impact Assessment
(VIA) in Panchase, Nepal
By:
Madhav Karki, Ph.D.
For ISET-Nepal EBA project team
Outline
•
•
•
-
Brief Introduction of Panchase
Purpose and Process of VIA
Adapting to the UNEP/WCMC Guide
Conceptual Framework: Integrating EBA and CBA Tools
- EBA Strategy
• Methodology
• Preliminary Results
• Implications to the ongoing Work
Panchase Conservation Area (VDC
Boundaries)
Panchase Conservation Area
(Watershed boundaries)
Panchase Ecosystems: unique and
challenging
• Climatic conditions (e.g. sub-tropical-temperate);
• Geophysical conditions (e.g. mountainous);
• Dominant land use by humans (e.g. agriculture and –
forestry ecosystem);
• Land cover – mainly forest, grassland, fresh water, and
agriculture;
• Species composition (e.g. Oak-Castanopsis-Quercus
forests);
• Resource management systems and institutions (e.g.
protected and community managed forests, open grazing,
mixed farming system).
Population Growth/Decline in Project
Districts
Source: CBS, 2011
Geograp 1991
hic area Census
(skm)
data
Kaski
2017
292945 380527 490429
+29% or
+2.9%/anum
Parbat
494
143547 157826 147076
-6.8% or
0.68%/anum
293526 317320 288040
-9.23% or
-
Syangja 1164
2001
Census
data
2011
Census
data
Rate of Pop.
Growth
(2001-2011)
District
0.923%/anum
Population data by VDC (2011)
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
Male
4000
Female
3000
Total
2000
1000
0
Bhadaure Dhikur P Chapakot Pumdi B
T
Salyan
Kaskikot Sarangkot
Population data by VDC (2011)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
3899
2000
4455
1500
8354
1000
500
0
Purpose and Use of VIA
• To assess impacts of CC not only on society but
also on the ecosystem and the links between the
two,
• To define the objectives and focus of adaptation
using ecosystem services in the centre.
• To develop a knowledge base for developing
human centred adaptation strategy for
ecosystem management
• to develop adaptation strategies that reduce
climate sensitive risks and enhance resilience of
community & ecosystem
PROCESS: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK,
STRATEGY, & ADAPTED METHODOLOGY
VIA of the Society & Ecosystem
(Source: UNEP/WCMC Guidelines)
General Process for VIA and EBA strategy
development (UNEP/WCMC Guidelines)
Climate Impacts on Fragile Systems and
Marginal Agents (Source: ISET)
Coupled Human-Environmental System
(CHES) ( Adapted from Locatelli, et al (2008)
Conception of System as gateways
Integration of EBA & CBA Tool
• Both CBA & EBA are human-centred
• Ecosystem goods and services are critical resources for
people-centred adaptation
• Both aim to scale up and make community-driven
• CBA reduce peoples’ vulnerability; EBA enhances
resilience
• Both recognize the relevance of local specificities
• CBA empowers people; EBA strengthen communitybased approaches
• Integrated approaches better address shortcomings of
both
EBA strategy
• Capitalize on natural resilience of human and
eco-systems to a certain threshold level of
changes;
• Build on these social and bio-physical system
strengths ecosystem services are available for
adaptation now and in future;
• Develop knowledge through traditional and
scientific sources and processes
• Develop adaptation strategies that reduce
climate sensitive risks and builds system
resilience
EbA Strategic Framework
Land use
Land cover
Change
Sustainable
Management of
Ecosystem
Climate
Change
People and
ecosystem
Biodiversity
Conservation
Restoration of
Ecosystem
Socio-economic
Change
Different Interpretation of Vulnerability
(Source: O’Brian et al, 2007)
Note: In the EBA context, Contextual
Vulnerability is appropriate as the impacts are due
to surrounding changes and existing conditions:
Landscape-based Vulnerability Assessment
(adapted from Klausmeyer et al 2011)
Vulnerability
Impacts
Climate Stress
Exposure
Climate
Change
indicators
Adaptive Constraints
Landscape Exposure
Exposure Buffering
Features
Sensitivity
Historical
Climate
Variability
Topography
Hydrology
Geography
Habitat
Loss
Habitat Fragmentation
Adapted VIA Process for
Enhanced Risk &
Threats
Panchase:
1. Assess Vulnerability
Review of methods
3. Assess
Adaptive
Constraints
Monitoring and
Evaluation
2. Assess Impacts
4. Assess changed
sensitivity and
exposure
5. New vulnerability
due to Climate Stress
6 Resource maps
7. Adaptation
planning & options
Shared Learning
Dialogue (SLD)
envelop
8.Prioritized for
implementation
Community of
practices
Knowledge &
Information Base
Steps for Localized System-based Vulnerability Assessment
(VIA Tools for Panchase)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Participatory Resource Mapping
Adaptation Capacity/Constraint Assessment
Vulnerability Trend Assessment
Current Climate Vulnerability Mapping
Landscape Level Vulnerability Mapping
Community-level Climate Change Perception
Participatory Scenario Building
Adaptation Planning and Visioning (Shared
Learning Dialogue)
9. Adaptation Strategy Development
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
Panchase Conservation Area (Land Use
Land Cover Map, 1993)
Panchase Conservation Area
(Land Use Land Cover 2010) (Source: ICIMOD)
Panchase Conservation Area (aspect)
Panchase Conservation Area
(elevation)
Socio-economic Vulnerability (% landless
households/population)
Resources Maps (Rivers and rivulets)
Adaptive Capacity/Institutional
Strength Map
Climate Change Projections for Nepal
Temperature Trend – Kaski (804)*
Average Jan Temp
15
14.5
14
13.5
13
y = 0.0333x - 53.074
R² = 0.2414
12.5
12
11.5
11
10.5
10
1970
1975
1980
Average temp
*
1985
1990
1995
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Average temp)
2000
2005
2010
2015
Linear (Average temp)
The number in the bracket is the DHM Station Number
Temperature Trend Kaski (804)
Average May Temp
26
25.5
25
24.5
24
y = 0.0362x - 47.949
R² = 0.1739
23.5
23
22.5
22
1970
1975
1980
Average temp
1985
1990
1995
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Average temp)
2000
2005
2010
Linear (Average temp)
2015
Temperature Trend, Syangja (805)
Average Jan Temp
17
16
15
14
13
12
y = 0.0406x - 68.187
R² = 0.0219
11
10
1975
1980
1985
Average Jan Temp
1990
1995
Linear (Average Jan Temp)
2000
2005
2010
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Average Jan Temp)
2015
Temperature Trend, Syangja 805
Average May Temp
27
26
y = 0.1575x - 291.03
R² = 0.1075
25
24
23
22
21
20
1975
1980
1985
Average May Temp
1990
1995
Linear (Average May Temp)
2000
2005
2010
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Average May Temp)
2015
Temperature Trend, Parbat 614
Average Jan Temp
17
16
15
14
13
y = 0.0254x - 36.596
R² = 0.0317
12
11
10
1985
1990
Average Jan Temp
1995
Linear (Average Jan Temp)
2000
2005
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Average Jan Temp)
2010
Temperature Trend, Parbat 614
Average May Temp
26.5
26
25.5
25
24.5
y = 0.0176x - 10.217
R² = 0.0202
24
23.5
23
1985
1990
Average May Temp
1995
2000
Linear (Average May Temp)
2005
2010
10 per. Mov. Avg. (Average May Temp)
Preliminary Results (Climate Stress)
Cs+ Exposure +Sensitivity
• Based on the increasing trend both in historical
and predicted Temperature data as well as high
regional variability, the temperature related
exposure and sensitivity are Moderate to High;
• Since Rainfall indicates no trend with higher
frequency of extreme events observed and
predicted, moisture stress in the month of May is
expected to be Moderate.
Preliminary Results (Landscape
Exposure)
LE= topography+ hydrology+ geography (t+h+g)
As the series of Maps indicate, the Landscape is
characterized by mountainous/hilly
topography with moderate to high slope
gradients dominated by Southern & Western
facing aspects (that are generally dry), as well
as the hydrology is characterized by extreme
events; the Landscape Exposure is considered
Moderate.
Perceptional Current Vulnerability Ranking
VDCs
(Very low=1, Low=2, Moderate=3, High=4, Very high=5)
Parbat
Khaulalakuri
Ramja deurali
Chitre
Tilahar
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
5
5
5
4
2
4
4
1
4
4
1
5
5
5
4
4
Arthar Dandakharka
3
5
2
4
5
Pakuwa
5
5
5
5
3
5
Chapakot
Pumdibhumdi
Kaskokot
Sarangkot
Dhikurpokhari
Bhadaure Tamagi
2
2
3
5
4
3
5
5
1
3
Salyan
4
4
2
2
1
4
3
5
3
3
3
5
2
3
5
3
2
4
2
3
2
4
2
5
4
4
4
5
4
2
4
2
5
4
4
1
3
5
3
Kaski
2
3
4
4
1
3
1
1
3
Syangja
Bhatkhola
Bangephadke
Arukharka
Land and Ecosystem
Grazing area
Communication
Other Energy
Electricity
indicative
endangered species
Transportation
(Roads/Trails)
Irrigation
Agriculture
Forest
Drinking water
SYSTEMS
4
5
2
2
First order ward level vulnerability
ranking (based on field survey & gateway system)
Preliminary Results: Priority Themes for EBA
EBA Thematic Areas
Water related adaptation
project/programme:
Priority Remarks
Counts
Rehab. Of Drinking
12
Water Sources and
Irrigation Structures
Agriculture related adaptation
project/ programme:
9
Diversifications and
Water Availability
Road related adaptation project/
programme:
3
Road Stabilization and
Resilient Construction
Energy related adaptation project/
programme:
2
Renewable and Clean
Local Energy Solutions
Forest related adaptation project/
programme:
2
Forest and Wildlife
Management to
Improve Livelihoods
and Reduce People-
Adaptation decision (sample)
• B: Project name: Wildlife and Forest Conservation
1. Activity Options:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Increase tourism
Improve conservation of forest resources
Protect and conserve water resources
Conserve wildlife, grassland and habitat
Conserve biodiversity
2. Objectives:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Enhance tourism
Publicize and promote Panchase conservation area widely
Manage wildlife by protecting/improving habitats
Stop deforestation and forest fire
Identify and manage important medicinal herbs to increase income source
3. Operations (Activities):
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
Local people should be made aware and concerned about the value of conservation
Conservation with the help of helping/supportive local organizations
Create fire lines to avoid forest fire
Completely avoid/stop illegal hunting
Carry out afforestation in barren land to conserve habitat
Improve Public awareness through knowledge sharing
Give special importance to endangered special for their conservation
Resources necessary:
•
•
Technician’s service and technical knowhow; Financial support
Improve human resources by building capacity, transfer skills, and conduct training
Adaptation Scenario Building Process
a

4 VDC clusters were formed local communities were
engaged in listing possible adaptation activities based on the
Vulnerability scenario discussed
 This shared learning methods helped identify 7 thematic
activities
 Out of these 2 to 3 options were prioritized one of which is
on Forest and Biodiversity Conservation
THANK YOU

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