PowerPoint

Report
Eurasian Economic Integration
EDB Centre for Integration Studies
2014
Section I. Eurasian Economic Integration
and its institutions
2
Regional integration stages
STAGES
Economic Union
SUPRANATIONAL
REGULATORY BODY
Single Economic
Space
Customs Union
Free Trade Zone
3
History of Eurasian integration
FORMATION
OF THE SES
Agreement on
deeper
integration
Treaty on the
Customs
Union and SES
Treaty on the
establishment
of EurAsEC
SES
PROJECT
Belarus, Kaz
akhstan,
Russia
Decision of
IGC to form
the CU as a
part of
EurAsEc
COMMENCEM
ENT OF EEC
OPERATION
FORMATION OF THE
EURASIAN ECONOMIC
UNION (EEU)
FORMATION
OF THE CU
SINGLE CODED
DOCUMENT
CU: Russia Belarus
CU: Russia Kazakhstan
no later than
01.2015
NO INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION
AND LEGAL PERSONALITY
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION AND
LEGAL PERSONALITY EXISTS
INTEGRATION STRUCTURES CREATED
EurAsEc structures: IGC, IC, IPA, IC Secretariat
CU Structures: SACU,
CUC, CUC Secretariat
SES
structures:
SEEC, EEC
Court
EEU structures:
SEES, EEC, Court,
Assembly
4
Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union
The Treaty (signed May 29th 2014, functional January 1st 2015)
establishes the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)
• EEU ensures free movement of goods, services, capital and labor
• Coordinated, coherent or uniform policy in economy sectors
• The Union is an international organization of regional economic integration, which has
international legal personality
The Union operates on the basis of the following principles:
• Respect for universally recognized principles of international law
• Respect for difference of political structure of the Member States
• Promotion of mutually beneficial cooperation, equality and consideration of national interests
• Compliance with the principles of market economy and fair competition
• Operation of the Customs Union without exceptions and limitations after the transition periods
5
Goals of establishing the EEU
• Creation of conditions for stable development of
economies of the Member States in order to
improve the living standards of their population
• Aspiration to create a single market for goods,
services, capital and labor within the Union
• Comprehensive modernization, cooperation and
improvement of competitiveness of national
economies in the context of the global economy.
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EEU bodies
Supreme Eurasian Economic Council
(Supreme Council)
Eurasian Intergovernmental Council
(Intergovernmental Council)
Eurasian Economic Commission
(Commission, EEC)
Eurasian Economic Union Court
(Union Court)
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EEU management bodies
Supreme Eurasian Economic Union
(Heads of State Parties)
Eurasian Intergovernmental Council
(Heads of Governments of the Parties)
Council of the Commission
3 Council members, one Vice Prime Minister of each Party
EEC
Commission Board
(9 Board Members, 3 per each Party)
Advisory
bodies
Chairman of the Board
Member of the Board (Minister)
for main areas of
integration and macroeconomics
Member of the Board
(Minister) for Economics
and Financial Policy
Member of the Board
(Minister)
for Technical
Regulation –
Member of the Board
(Minister)
for Trade
Member of the Board
(Minister)
for Competition and
Antitrust Regulation
Member of the Board
(Minister)
for Industry and
Agroindustrial
Complex
Member of the Board
(Minister)
for Energy and
Infrastructure
Member of the Board
(Minister)
for Customs
Cooperation–
Departments
Departments
Advisory
bodies
Departments
8
EEU budget
ASSESSED CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE
PARTIES
Proportional to standard distribution of
import customs duties for each party
(Treaty on the Eurasian Economic
Commission)
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
BELARUS
9
Customs Union
Single customs area
Abandonment of customs clearance of goods in mutual trade
Uniform Customs Code
Single trade regime with third countries
Transfer of customs controls to the external borders
Single customs tariff and non-tariff regulation system
10
Provisions of the Treaty
relating to the Customs Union
Information exchange and statistics
Operation of the Customs Union
Regulation of trade of medications and medical products
Foreign trade policy
Technical regulation
Sanitary, veterinary-sanitary and phytosanitary quarantine
measures
Consumer protection
11
Single Economic Space (SES)
Implementation of "four freedoms": free movement of goods, services, capital and
labor
Harmonization and unification of the rules of economic regulation in key areas (competition,
subsidies, government procurement, technical regulation, activities of natural monopolies,
protection of intellectual property, etc.)
Implementation of coordinated macroeconomic and monetary policy
Formation of integrated sectoral markets
12
Provisions of the Treaty relating to SES
MACROECONOMIC
MONETARY POLICY
TRADE IN SERVICES,
INSTITUTION,
OPERATION
AND INVESTMENT
ACTIVITIES
TAXES AND TAXATION
GENERAL PRINCIPLES
AND RULES OF
COMPETITION
LABOUR MIGRATION
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
GOVERNMENT
PROCUREMENT
INTELLECTUAL
PROPERTY
ENERGY
NATURAL
MONOPOLY
AGRICULTURAL
COMPLEX
REGULATION OF
FINANCIAL SERVICES
13
MACROECONOMIC POLICY
Main macroeconomic indicators of
sustainable economic development
Inflation in annual
terms does not
exceed by more
Annual consolidated
than 5 percentage
budget deficit of the State debt does not
points the level of
country does not
exceed 50% of GDP
inflation in the
exceed 3% of GDP
Member State in
which this index has
the smallest value.
14
Labour migration in the EEU
• Workers of the Member States are not required to obtain permits for work
in the State of employment.
• The State of employment recognizes documents confirming education ,
with no recognition procedures applied for these documents (exception educational, legal, medical, pharmaceutical activities).
• The period of temporary stay (residence) of a Member State worker and his
family members in the State of employment is determined by the period of
employment or a civil contract.
• Social security (social insurance) (except pension) is provided for Member
State workers and their family members on the same terms and in the same
manner as for the citizens of the state of employment
15
Transitional provisions of the EEU Treaty
2016
Common market for
medications and
medical products
2019
Common electric
power market
2025
Creation of a
supranational
regulatory authority
for financial markets
Common market for
gas, oil and
petroleum products
16
Section II. Permanent projects of the EDB Centre for
Integration Studies
17
EDB Centre for Integration Studies
•Centre for Integration Studies was
founded in 2011
•It is a structural unit of the EDB
•Focus on application quantitative
studies: macroeconomic modeling,
databases, calculation of economic
effects
•Located in St. Petersburg
•7 employees, outsourcing is actively
used
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EEU macroeconomic policies analysis and
forecasting system
 Evaluation of long-term trends
and the current state of SES
economies;
 Coordination of efforts and
positions on the development of
short-and medium-term
outlook, as well as scenarios
for the development of
economic situation;
 Forming proposals and
Countries
recommendations on monetary,
fiscal and policy based on the
Type
results of forecasting;
 The work is carried out in
collaboration with EEC and
Implementanational authorities (Belarus)
tion
• Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia
• DSGE
• Financial Programming
• Econometrics
• Quarterly data
• MatLab and IRIS
• Multi-country model and 5 country models
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Monitoring of mutual direct investments (MMI) in the
CIS
•
•
•
MM is the largest
international database
on mutual direct
investment in the CIS
region
MMI CIS uses only
public information
sources of various
types
The database has
structured information
on 1060 projects since
1992
Russian FDI stock by countries CBR and MMI CIS data
Country
FDI stock, $ billion
(CBR data)
FDI stock, $ billion
(MMI CIS data)
Total, CIS and Georgia
Belarus
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
Moldova
Georgia (excluding Abkhazia and
South Ossetia)
Kyrgyzstan
Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan
* Preliminary estimate by adding to the data at the beginning of 2012 information on net inflow in 2012 published by CBR on 11 June 2013.
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Monitoring of direct investment of SES and Ukraine in
Eurasia
Country
number of
transactions in
the database
number
numberofof
transactions
transactions
with
in FDI
the
over S1
database
billion (end
of 2012)
number of transactions
with FDI from $ 100 million
to $ 1 billion (end of 2012)
FDI stock at the end
of 2012, S billion
Russia
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Belarus
Joint
projects
Total
• Based on improved methodology;
• Geographical coverage - the whole of Europe, Turkey, China,
Mongolia, both Koreas, Japan, and Vietnam;
• More than 300 transactions, though dominated by Russia.
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•
•
•
EDB Integration Barometer:
attitude to the CU and SES in member states
In use from 2012. A
monitoring study of
2012
Kazakhstan
integration
2013
preferences of the
former Soviet
Union population
(11 CIS countries
2012
Russia
and Georgia)
2013
In 2013, 12
countries
participated in the
2012
survey.
Belarus
More than 14
2013
thousand people
interviewed (from
1000 to 2000 in
each country).
80%
10% 4% 6%
73%
15%
6% 7%
72%
17%
5% 6%
67%
60%
65%
24%
28%
23%
5% 3%
6% 6%
3% 9%
Безусловно
положительно
/ Скорее положительно
Absolutely
positive/
mostly positive
Безразлично
Indifferent
Скорееnegative/
отрицательно
/ Безусловно
Mostly
absolutely
negative отрицательно
Затрудняюсь
ответить
Not
sure
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EDB Integration Barometer:
attitude to the CU and SES in third countries
Узбекистан
Uzbekistan
Таджикиста
Tajikistan
н
77%
75%
Кыргызстан
Kyrgyzstan
14%
72%
Армения
Armenia
12%
67%
Грузия
Georgia
19%
59%
Молдова
Moldova
9%
54%
Украина
Ukraine
Туркмениста
Turkmenistan
н
Азербайджа
Azerbaijan
н
7% 5%
50%
12%
50%
13%
37%
6%
3% 9%
14%
5%
16%
11%
11%
3%
10%
16%
24%
11%
28%
9%
9%
53%
Absolutely
positive/
positive
Безусловно
да / mostly
Скорее
да
Indifferent
Мне безразлично
Скорее
нет / Безусловно
нет
Mostly
negative/
absolutely negative
Затрудняюсь
ответить
Not
sure
27%
4%
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EDB Integration Barometer:
general preference indicators
Culture
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Economy
Armenia
Belarus
Georgia
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Kyrgyzstan
Georgia
Tajikistan
Moldova
Uzbekistan
Russia
Turkmenistan Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Armenia
Belarus
Georgia
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
Vector
"EU
countries"
All areas
Policy
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Armenia
Vector
"Former
USSR countries"
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
Vector
"Other
countries"
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Eurasian Integration Indicators System
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
2002
•
•
•
•
2008
2012
Indicators system shows long-term integration trends of the CIS-12 region
The purpose of the composite index is to combine various aspects of regional cooperation into a
single indicator reflecting the degree of integration of each country with CIS-12
To determine the composite index the nine integration indices of each country were normalized
with the CIS-12 Region, from macroeconomics and trade to labor migration and academic mobility
EIIS was republished twice - in 2009 and 2013
26
Database of regional economic organizations:
global experience for EEU
• Regularly updated open database on 80 regional economic integration
associations / arrangements;
• Comparative analysis of 110 indicators (database fragment) :
GDP per
capita
(current
US$)
GDP per Exports of Imports of
capita,
goods
goods
Total
PPP
and
and
trade, bln GDP, bln $
(current services services
$
internatio
(% of
(% of
nal $)
GDP)
GDP)
RIO
Power
Population
index
(Total)
(cinc)
CAN
CACM
0,0029 103680776 6601,7211 9881,3679 23,189838 23,322026
0,0005 40113099 3693,145 5934,4515 33,890266 45,49147
275,72
94,65
684,48
148,13
COMESA 0,0017 469492802 1317,5201 2293,5952 26,348766 34,573136
302,78
607,82
ECOWAS
MERCOSUR
EEA
0,001
318500013
1242,2
2120,8
49,1
30,7
290,05
395,67
0,007
279780342
11383,5
12652,7
15,7
16,2
803,02
3184,87
514412456
33448,5
33927,8
43
40,9
11673,59
17146,43
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Eurasian continental integration
Important areas of continental
integration:
EEU - West
EEU - East
Regarding westwards direction, the
possibility of economic integration with
the EU is being studied
As to eastwards direction, China, India,
Vietnam, and other countries are
important
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Single Economic Space
from the Atlantic to the Pacific
Liberalization of trade,
including creation of free
trade regimes
Creation of four
common spaces
EU
Economic
union
Common internal
market
Single economic
space
APEC
Customs union
Free trade area
Customs union
Free trade area
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Շնորհակալություն ուշադրության համար.
Дзякую за ўвагу!
Назар аударғандарыңызға рахмет!
Thank you for your attention!
Centre for Integration Studies
Eurasian Development Bank
Russian Federation, 191014
Saint-Petersburg 7 Paradnaya str.
Tel.: +7 (812) 320 44 41
Fax: +7 (812) 329-40-41
www.eabr.org
30
FOREIGN TRADE POLICY
•
•
•
•
•
•
The union may grant tariff preferences in respect of the goods from developing and
least developed countries
Uniform rules apply for determining the origin of goods imported into the customs
territory
Introduction of counter measures in the customs territory of the Union carried out by the
Commission, including by increasing the rates of import customs duties and introduction of
quantitative restrictions, temporary suspension of preferences
Joint measures to promote exports include, in particular, insurance and export credits,
international leasing, promoting the concept of "Eurasian Economic Union Product" and
introduction of single labeling for the goods of the Union, organization of fairs and
exhibitions, advertising and branding activities abroad
In the customs territory of the Union the single Commodity Nomenclature of Foreign
Economic Activity of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Common Customs Tariff
of the Eurasian Economic Union apply, which are approved by the Commission and used
as trade policy instruments of the Union
Measures can be introduced to protect the domestic market with respect to the goods
originating in third countries and imported into the customs territory of the Union, in the
form of special protective, antidumping and countervailing measures
31
Key powers of the
Eurasian Economic Commission
Macroeconomics
Determination of scenario parameters for forecasts of socio-economic development for the 3-year period
natural monopolies
Making decisions to expand the spheres of natural monopolies
government procurement
Decision to cancel the exemption from national treatment
Making decisions to correct the fact of violation of obligations to implement the Agreement
competition
Cancellation of decisions on introduction of state price regulation.
Approval of extension of the terms for introduction of state price regulation
Railway transport
Approval of application of exceptional rates
Making decisions on suspension / cancellation of decisions on tariff changes
competition
Decisions to apply sanctions and fines.
Decisions on restraint of violations
Industrial subsidies
Decisions on the admissibility of providing specific
subsidies
32
EEU effects for membership candidate countries
Armenia:
•In case of Armenia's accession to the CU short-term effects
will be about 4% of GDP;
•Attracting major targeted investments in the Armenian
economy.
Tajikistan:
•Additional increase in potential GDP growth by 3.5% in
Tajikistan in the medium term.
Kyrgyzstan:
•Potential stable GDP growth to 6%;
•Increase in remittances from labour migrants (in 2012
amounted up to 29% of GDP of Kyrgyzstan);
•Improvement of the investment attractiveness of Kyrgyzstan.
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