2012 Master Plan Presentation to CEQ - July 2010

Report
Louisiana’s Comprehensive
Master Plan for a Sustainable
Coast: 2012 Update
Karim Belhadjali – Coastal Protection and
Restoration Authority
Builds on Other Efforts
2
Linking Back to Master Plan Objectives
1. Reduce economic losses from
storm-based flooding
2. Promote a sustainable coastal
ecosystem by harnessing natural
system processes
3. Provide habitats suitable to
support an array of commercial
and recreational activities coastwide
4. Sustain Louisiana’s unique
heritage and culture
5. Provide a viable working coast to
support industry.
Key Components of 2012 Update
• Specific & Realistic Goals & Objectives
• Prioritized Project List
• Map showing the selected projects and what they
provide:
• Levels of risk reduction
• Levels of ecosystem services across the coast
• Extent and character of future landscape
• Detailed Implementation plan with:
• Schedule, Costs, Expected sources of funding
• Adaptive Management plan to guide implementation
4
Elements of 2012 Master Plan with Building
Blocks for Other Efforts
Project Team &
Collaborative Effort
6
Master Plan Delivery Team
Coastal Scientists
Planners
Engineers
Social Scientists
7
Review and Coordination
CPRA
Coastal Protection and
Restoration Authority
Master Plan Delivery Team
Prioritization Tool
Technical
Advisory
Committee
Project Effects
Models
Technical
Advisory
Committee
Cultural Heritage
Technical Advisory
Committee
Modeling
Workgroups
Science &
Engineering
Board
(MP-SEB)
Framework
Development
Team (FDT)
Stakeholders
Technical Advisory Committee Members
Project-Effects Models
•
•
•
•
Steve Ashby, USACE Eng. Res. Dev. Center
John Callaway, University of San Francisco
Fred Sklar, South Florida Water Mgmt. District
Si Simenstad, University of Washington
Prioritization Tool TAC
• John Boland, John Hopkins
• Ben Hobbs, John Hopkins
• Len Shabman, Virginia Tech
Cultural Heritage TAC
• Don Davis, Louisiana State University
• Carl Brasseaux, University of Louisiana Lafayette
• Maida Owens, LA Dept. of Cultural, Recreation, Tourism
9
National Science and Engineering Board Independent Technical Review
Ecosystem Science / Coastal Ecology
• William Dennison, University of Maryland
• Edward Houde, University of Maryland
• Katherine Ewell, University of Florida
Engineering
• Robert Dalrymple, Johns Hopkins University
• Jos Dijkman, Deltares
Geosciences
• Charles Groat, University of Texas at Austin
Social Science and Risk
• Greg Baecher, University of Maryland
• Philip Berke, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill
Climate Change
• Virginia Burkett, U.S. Geological Survey
Environmental/Natural Resource Economics
• Edward Barbier, University of Wyoming
10
Framework Development TeamOver 30 Federal, State, NGO, Academic,
Community, and Industry Organizations
11
Predictive Models Overview
Predictive Modeling Team
• CPRA Team Leads
– Mandy Green (Planning)
– Carol Parsons-Richards (LACES)
• Technical Lead
– Dr. Denise Reed (UNO)
• Technical Coordination
– Alaina Owens (Brown and Caldwell)
• 7 Model Teams
• Over 50 Experts
Predictive Models Workgroups
Predictive Model
Eco-hydrology
Workgroup Leader + Members
Dr. Ehab Meselhe, ULL + 9 members
Vegetation
Wetland Morphology
Barrier Island
Morphology
Upper Trophic Level
Storm Surge
Dr. Jenneke Visser, ULL + 8 members
Dr. Greg Steyer, USGS + 6 members
Dr. Mark Kulp, UNO + 6 members
Dr. Andy Nyman, LSU + 8 members
Dr. Joe Suhayda/Arcadis, + 3 members
Storm Damage/Risk Dr. Jordan Fischbach, RAND + 7 members
Data Integration
Craig Conzelmann and USGS team
Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
Predictive Models
• Dr. Steve Ashby, USACE - Engineer
Research and Development Center
• Dr. John Callaway, University of San
Francisco
• Dr. Fred Sklar, South Florida Water
Mgmt. District
• Dr. Si Simenstad, University of
Washington
Predictive Models Overview
• Eco-Hydrology
• Mass-balance box model
• Output – 16 variables
• stage, salinity, sediment, water quality
• Wetland Morphology
• 4 submodels - changes in the landscape
• Output – land change, fragmentation, elevation, SOC
• Barrier Shoreline Morphology
• Changes in tidal inlet area, location, area, and elevation
• Vegetation
• Probability of death / establishment of 21 vegetation
classes, per salinity, inundation
Predictive Models (cont’d.)
• Upper Trophic Level
• Habitat Suitability Indices
• 14 species and 1 functional group
• Storm Surge and Wave
• Coarsened AdCirc grid (used by USACE)
• Use output from wetland /barrier morphology and vegetation
to modify grid points
• Output – storm surge and wave elevation
• Risk Assessment (damage)
• Surge elevation, value of assets (commercial, residential,
infrastructure, strategic assets)
• Output – flood depths and resulting residual damages ($)
• Data Integration
• File naming, automations, model linkages and data transfer
Modeling in a Systems Context
Data
Integration
Stage, Salinity, Water Quality
Stage, Salinity
EcoHydrology
Stage
Land Configuration, Elevation
Stage,
Salinity
Sediment
Land
Configuration,
Elevation
Wetland
Morphology
Dominant Vegetation
Vegetation
Island
Configuration
Barrier Island
Morphology
Land
Configuration,
Elevation
Dominant
Vegetation
Dominant
Vegetation
Surge
Upper
Trophic
Habitat
Suitability
Index
Damage
Surge, Waves
Surge, Waves
Damage, $
20
Modeling in a Systems Context
Data
Integration
Stage, Salinity, Water Quality
Stage, Salinity
EcoHydrology
Stage
Land Configuration, Elevation
Stage,
Salinity
Sediment
Land
Configuration,
Elevation
Wetland
Morphology
Dominant Vegetation
Vegetation
Island
Configuration
Barrier Island
Morphology
Land
Configuration,
Elevation
Dominant
Vegetation
Dominant
Vegetation
Surge
Upper
Trophic
Habitat
Suitability
Index
Damage
Surge, Waves
Surge, Waves
Damage, $
21
1. INPUTS
Wind speed &
direction
Water depth
Salinity
Water temp
Land area
Gulf stage
Gulf salinity
Gulf nutrients
Air temp
Riv discharge
Riv sediment
Riv nutrients
Diversion flows
Atmospheric
deposition
Rainfall
Evapotrans
1. OUTPUTS
Stage
Salinity
Water temp
Sed retention
Accretion
Total Kjeldahl N
Tidal prism
Nitrate + nitrite
Ammonium N
Dissolved org N
Total P
Dissolved org P
Dissolved inorg
P
Chlorophyll a
Detritus
Residence time
N removal rate
2. INPUTS
Land/water
Land change rates
Elevation
Avg band 5
Reflectance
Eustatic SLR
Subsidence
Compaction
Freshwater input
Sed supply
Bulk density,
%OM, %mineral
Accretion & elev
Salinity
Inundation
Marsh type &
dominant species
SURRGO Soils
2. OUTPUTS
Land change
Fragmentation
Elevation
Soil Org C
4. INPUTS
Vegetation
Distribution
Land area/
distribution
Elevation
Water level
Salinity
Nitrogen
4.
OUTPUTS
% of each
vegetation
class in
each cell
Inputs, Outputs
1. EcoHydrology
2. Wetland
Morphology
3. Barrier
Morphology
3. INPUTS
Historical shoreline & bathymetry
Tidal inlet configuration
Sediment character
LiDAR elev
Land area distribution & elev
Waves & surge
Water elev & tidal velocity at inlets
3. OUTPUTS
Barrier area &
geometry
Inlet config
Shoreline
position
5. INPUTS
Water depth & fluctuation
Salinity; Water temp
TSS ; Dissolved O
Chlorophyll a
Marsh edge; % open water
% emergent veg (by type)
River nutrients
Island surface area &
distance
% submerged substrate
covered by emergent veg
 Water depth in wooded
wetlands
% area within 3 km (< 9 ppt
salinity & depth 1-30 cm)
% area (1-12 cm deep)
% area within 10 km (1-12
cm deep)
% cultch cover on bottom
Similarity index around the
cell
4. Vegetation
5. Upper
Trophic
6. Surge
7. Damage
6. INPUTS
Land area
distribution & elev
% of each vegetation
class
Barrier island
geometry
Inlet config
Shoreline position
6. OUTPUTS
Surge
hydrographs
Waves
7. INPUTS
Surge
hydrographs
Waves
Protection
system inputs
5. OUTPUTS
Habitat Suitability
Indices for 15
species:
Crawfish
Alligator
Largemouth bass
Mottled duck
Gadwall
Green-wing teal
River otter
Muskrat
White shrimp
Brown shrimp
Oyster
Spotted sea trout
Roseate spoonbill
Neotropical
migrants
Black drum
7. OUTPUTS
Residential
risk/damage
Modeling Status and Next Steps
• All of the modules are running
• FWOA in progress
• Production mode
• On-going technical oversight (TAC)
• Assessment of model uncertainty
• USACE model certification
2012 Master Plan Outputs
• Maps showing ranges of Master
Plan outcomes
• Levels of flood protection
• Levels of ecosystem services
• Extent and character of landscape
• Adaptive management plan to
guide implementation
•
•
•
•
•
Maps of near-term projects
Maps of potential future project
Schedule
Costs
Expected sources of funding
Questions?
For more information, send an e-mail to
[email protected] or go to
coastalmasterplan.la.gov
27
Uncertainty Analysis
1) Sea level rise
2) Subsidence
3) Marsh collapse threshold
4) Storm frequency and
intensity
5) River discharge
6) Rainfall
7) Evapo-transpiration
8) Nutrients
Ecosystem Modules
Bathy-topo
outcomes
Surge/Wave
Module
9) Demographics
10) Induced development
11) Drainage performance
12) Structural system fragility
13) Effectiveness of nonstructural measures
Flood
Damage
Module
Ecosystem
service
outcomes
Flood damage
outcomes
14) Project costs
15) Project time to completion
16) Available funding
16 uncertainties
identified by
modeling groups
Prioritization Tool
28
Seven Modules: Overview of
Project-Effects Models
Eco-Hydrology Team
Ehab Meselhe
Team Lead,
Chenier Plain Model
Alex McCorquodale
Pontchartrain and Barataria Model
Jonathan Hird and
Jeff Sheldon
Terrebonne and Atchafalaya Models
Stokka Brown
Technical Support
30
Barrier Shoreline Team
Mark Kulp
Team Lead
Ioannis Georgiou
Barrier Shoreline and Tidal Inlet Morphology and
Dynamics
Dallon Weathers
Barrier Shoreline Morphology, Dynamics
Zoe Hughes
Barrier and Tidal Inlet Morphology and Dynamics
Duncan FitzGerald
Tidal Inlet Morphology and Dynamic
Abby Sallenger
Barrier Shoreline Elevation Morphology and
Dynamics
Darin Lee
Scientific input and internal review
31
Wetlands Morphology Team
Greg Steyer
Brady Couvillion
Hongqing Wang
Craig Fischenich
John Rybczyk
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lead
Wetland productivity
Model Development (w/Bill Sleavin)
Landscape Trend Analysis
Input Data (w/Nadine Trahan and Holly Beck)
Model Development (programming, modification,
calibration and validation)
Hydrodynamic and depositional processes
Erosional processes
Linkage with barrier islands and/or storm surge
Relative elevation models (model modification,
parameters/coefficients w/G. Holm and B. Perez)
Organic matter/nutrient/bulk density contributions
Hyper-temporal rate examination
Inundation pattern assessment/RSLR
Yvonne Allen
•
•
•
Ron Boustany
• Organic matter/nutrient/bulk density contributions
Vegetation Team
Jenneke Visser
Team Lead
Scott Duke-Sylvester
Algorithm development and implementation
Whitney Broussard
Algorithm development and implementation
Jacoby Carter
Algorithm development and implementation
Hongqing Wang
Algorithm development and data exchange with
other modules
Mark Hester
Scientific input and internal review
Ken Krauss
Scientific input and internal review
Rebecca Howard
Scientific input and internal review
Charles Sasser
Scientific input and internal review
33
Higher Trophic Level Team
Andy Nyman, Team Lead
• American alligator
• muskrat
• river otter
Don Baltz
•
•
•
•
Michael Kaller
• largemouth bass
Paul Leberg
•
•
•
•
•
Robert Romaire
• wild-caught crawfish
Tom Soniat
• Eastern oyster
Craig Conzelmann & USGSTeam
• Model coding
black drum
speckled trout
brown shrimp
white shrimp
gadwall
green-winged teal
mottled duck
neotropical migrants
roseate spoonbill
34
Surge / Wave Team
Joseph Suhayda
Team Lead, Advisor
Hugh Roberts
Surge modeling
John Atkinson
Surge modeling
Ryan Clark
Technical support
35
Risk Assessment Team
Joseph Suhayda
Team Lead, Advisor
Jordan Fischbach
Modeling, risk assessment lead
David Ortiz
Modeling, risk assessment
advisor
Nicholas Burger
Team Member
Matthew Hoover
Team Member
David Johnson
Team Member
Jordan Ostwald
Team Member
Benjamin Bryant
Team Member
36

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