Risk-informed decision-making - Overseas Development Institute

Report
Risk-informed
decision-making:
An agenda for
improving risk
assessments under
HFA2
Photo credit: Andrew McConnell/Panos Pictures
CDKN Goals
Disaster risk management
1. Improving risk informed decision making – increasing the use of
science information
2. Mainstream DRM into CCD at national and sub-national levels
3. Positioning DRM as a priority consideration in sustainable
development and post-2015 policy frameworks
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Credit: G.M.B. Akash/Panos Pictures
CDKN Goals
1. Improving risk informed decision making – increasing the use of science
information
Examples of relevant projects:
• Partnership with the IPCC to promote key messages emerging from 5th
Assessment Report
• Developing a Climate Risk Assessment for CCD Planning in Central Asia
• Risk and vulnerability mapping in the Zambezi basin to inform basin-wide policy
• Learning Network on the Uptake of Risk Assessments in LAC
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Credit: G.M.B. Akash/Panos Pictures
Risk assessments
1. Increase awareness and understanding of
disaster risk
2. Develop financial applications to spread and
transfer risk
3. Guide and inform risk management and
adaptation policies
4. Inform early warning systems and contingency
planning
5. Inform spatial planning decisions
World Bank and United Nations (2012b) Improving the assessment of disaster risks
to strengthen financial resilience: A Special Joint G20 Publication by the
Government of Mexico and the World Bank. Washington DC: World Bank.
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Photo credit: Chris Stowers/ Panos Pictures
Learning Network on the Uptake
of Risk Assessments in LAC
Case studies:
• Colombia, El Salvador, Dominican Republic, Costa
Rica, Ecuador, Peru
• Mini case studies in Pakistan (NDMA), India (CDKN
project in Ahmedabad) and Ghana (CDKN project in
coastal areas)
• 3-4 risk assessments in each
• Range of intended uses:
 raise awareness x3
 risk transfer x2
 inform policies x11
 preparedness and EWS x1
 planning x6
• Mix of contexts and scales
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Photo credit: Chris Stowers/ Panos Pictures
Obstacles to uptake
Technical
1. Lack of conceptual clarity
2. Lack of data
3. Low technical capacity
Operational
1. Difficulties in interpreting results
2. Mismatch between scales
Institutional
1. Low salience
2. Short political timescales
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A political impact agenda
Enabling factors for successful use of risk assessments
1.
Process not projects
2.
Engage end users in design
3.
Build capacity
4.
Promote partnerships across scales
5.
Target sectors
6.
Build inter-sectoral collaboration
7.
Interpret outputs
8.
Link risk to development needs
9.
Tie to political timescales
Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
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Conclusions
 HFA2 should promote risk assessments that help policy-makers to relate
disaster risk to broader development decisions
 Technical, operational and institutional obstacles stand in the way of riskinformed decision-making. Too often, risk assessments are ignored by
decision-makers because results are difficult to interpret
 Risk assessment should be demand-led and designed with end-users to
ensure uptake and sustainability in application
 One-off risk assessments (as pre-conditions to risk management projects)
should be avoided - these have a very short shelf life
 Donors should seek to develop local capacity for commissioning and
interpreting risk studies
 Future risk assessments should focus on sectoral needs as the basis for
subsequent multi-sectoral work
Climate and Development Knowledge Network | www.cdkn.org
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www.cdkn.org
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