Open

Report
ICES advice as of 30th June 2014
Nick Bailey, Coby Needle, Helen Dobby, Emma Hatfield
Marine Scotland - Science
North Sea overview 2014
State
Stock
F
Cod
Haddock*
Whiting
Saithe*
Plaice
Sole
Herring
Sprat
SSB
Advice (for 2015)
Landing
% Basis
26713 -20
48176
8
13678 -15
72854 -15
128376 15
10973
-8
429797
-9
227000 58*
Note
Man Plan
long term phase of plan
MSY
combined areas. Recent recruitments small
Man Plan
North Sea part. SSB low and recruitment low
Man Plan
Recruitment low, SSB below trigger level
EU man plan
biomass increase, F low, recruitment ave
EU man plan
F still just above target
man plan
F low, biomass declining slightly
MSY
F decreasing SSB at Bpa high recruitment
Nephrops
Fladen
Forth
Moray
Farn
Inc all other
10759
1769
1185
983
17699
NA MSY
Biomass just above trigger, low harvest rate
NA MSY
Biomass above trigger, harvest rate below target
NA MSY
Biomass above trigger, harvest rate below target
NA MSY
stock below trigger and harvest rate too high
14
Other (data limited)
Brill
Dab
Flounder
Grey Gurnard
Lemon sole
Turbot
Witch
Generally same advice as last
year for these stocks. Turbot advice
reduced
North Sea cod
Total removals
300
200
100
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
1.2
Fishing Mortality
Fmsy
Fpa
Flim
350
300
SSB in 1000 t
1
0.8
F (ages 2-4)
Recruitment (age 1)
3500
Unaccounted
Discards
Landings
Recruitment in millions
Landings in 1000 t
400
0.6
0.4
0.2
250
Spawning Stock Biomass
Bpa
MSY Btrigger
Blim
200
150
100
50
0
0
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
North Sea cod
• Retrospective pattern
– Indicates “same outcome as last year”
Georges Bank yellowtail flounder
North Sea cod
North Sea cod
• Discarding remained high in 2013
(b) Proportion discarded at age (by number)
1
age 1
0.8
0.6
age 2
0.4
age 3
0.2
age 4
0
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
North Sea cod
• Increasingly northerly distribution
2010-14
cod 1983-1988: length > 30 cm
cod 2010-2014: length > 30 cm
52
52
54
54
56
56
58
58
60
60
62
62
1983-88
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
North Sea cod
•
•
•
•
•
Retrospective pattern
Discarding still high in 2013
More northerly distribution
F still declining and SSB still rising
Recruitment remains low
58
56
54
52
• Management plan (EU-Norway):
– Catch 2015 = 35 486 t
– Landings 2015 = 26 713 t
– 20% reduction on 2014 TAC
• MSY approach:
– 61% reduction on 2014 TAC
60
62
cod 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
North Sea whiting
North Sea whiting
• Still no agreed reference points
• Management plan (EU-Norway):
– Catch 2015 = 28 317 t
– Landings 2015 = 17 190 t
– 15% reduction on 2014 TAC
52
54
56
58
60
62
whiting 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
North Sea plaice
North Sea plaice
2005-14
plaice 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
60
58
56
54
Total = 9913 fish
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
52
52
54
56
58
60
62
plaice 1983-1992: length > 30 cm
62
1983-92
Total = 10821 fish
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
North Sea plaice
• Very abundant, historical maximum
• Management plan (EU-Norway):
– Catch 2015 = 179 301 t
– Landings 2015 = 128 376 t
– 15% increase on 2014 TAC
52
54
56
58
60
62
plaice 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Northern Shelf haddock
Northern Shelf haddock
60
58
56
52
54
56
58
60
62
haddock 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
62
haddock 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
54
•
Now assessed as a single stock
MSY approach:
– Catch 2015 = 54 580 t
– Landings 2015 = 48 176 t
– 8% increase on 2014 TACs
ICES yet to advise on area TAC split
52
•
•
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Northern Shelf saithe
Northern Shelf saithe
60
58
56
52
54
56
58
60
62
saithe 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
62
saithe 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
54
•
Management plan (EU-Norway):
– Catch 2015 = 80 097 t
– Landings 2015 = 72 854 t
– 14.9% decrease on 2014 TAC
Two years of discard estimates from EU fleets used in advice: time series
too short to use in assessment. Norwegian discard rates assumed 0%.
52
•
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
North Sea herring
North Sea herring
• Stock considered to be in low productivity phase although above
SSB trigger
• F is below Fmsy
• Recruitment generally low in recent years because overwinter
survival since 2002 remains poor
• Advice is for catches of 429 727 t in human consumption fleet
(9% reduction on 2014 TAC)
North Sea sprat
North Sea sprat
• Stock has been at or above Bpa since 2005. SSB in 2013 is
estimated to be at Bpa
• Fishing mortality has shown an overall decreasing trend since
2004
• Recruitment in 2013 is estimated to be one of the highest in the
time-series
• Advice for 2014-2015 is landings of 227 000 t (58% increase on
2013-2014 advice)
Fladen Nephrops
Abundance
Stock Abundance
Abundance (millions)
6000
0
0 2000
2000 4000 6000 8000
Landings
Discards
10000
14000
Catches
Catches
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
10
8
6
4
2
0
Catches 2015 no more
than 10 759 tonnes
All catches landed
Reported Harvest Rate %
Harvest
Harvest rate
rate
1995
2000
2005
Year
2010
Moray Firth Nephrops
Abundance
Stock Abundance
200 400 600 800
0
Abundance (millions)
Landings
Discards
0
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Catches
Catches
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
10 15 20 25 30
5
0
Landings 2015 no more
than 1185 tonnes
Reported Harvest Rate %
Harvest
rate
Harvest rate
1995
2000
2005
Year
2010
Firth of Forth Nephrops
Stock Abundance
Abundance
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
600
0 200
0
1000
2000
Abundance (millions)
3000
Landings
Discards
1000
Catches
Catches
2013
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
50
40
30
20
10
0
Landings 2015 no more
than 1769 tonnes
Reported Harvest Rate %
Harvest
Harvestrate
rate
1995
2000
2005
Year
2010
Farn Deeps Nephrops
Catches
Abundance
Harvest rate
Landings 2015 no more
than 983 tonnes
North Sea Nephrops
• General improvement in North Sea Nephrops
• Increases in abundance and reduced harvest rates in Scottish
FUs – advice for increased TACs
• Fishery at Fladen taking some time to get back to ‘normal’
• Other FUs are data limited
• Advice overall – 14% increase (excl N Deeps)
Mixed fishery advice – North Sea
West Coast overview 2014
West Coast 2014
State
Stock
Cod
Haddock*
Whiting
Megrim*
Rockall haddock
Rockall megrim
Anglerfish
Hake
Herring
Nephrops
North Minch
South Minch
Clyde
Inc other
F
SSB
Advice (for 2015)
Landing
% Basis
0
MSY and Prec
Note
Low SSB, High F, poor recruitment
Combined with N sea
0
5950
0
2930 ++
?
?
78457
-4
22690 -19
?
?
?
?
?
Low SSB but slowly increasing, F low, some good recruitments
MSY
Combined with N Sea. Same advice as last year
MSY
Biomass declining, F just above target, improved recruitment
Advice in autumn
Advice in autumn
MSY
High SSB, F just above Fmsy, good recent recruitment
Man Plan
Biomass low, F just above target, recruitments low
Advice in autumn
Advice in autumn
Advice in autumn
Advice in autumn
Advice in autumn
West Coast cod
West Coast cod
2005-14
cod 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
60
58
56
54
Total = 1788 fish
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
52
52
54
56
58
60
62
cod 1983-1992: length > 30 cm
62
1983-92
Total = 1008 fish
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
West Coast cod
Status unchanged.
F continues to be very high and SSB very low
Recruitment low since 2001 and considered impaired
Discards account for 80% of catches
Advice is for no directed fishery and minimise discards
54
56
58
60
62
cod 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
52
•
•
•
•
•
Total = 1008 fish
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
West Coast whiting
West Coast whiting
Current stock situation poor but showing improvements
F is very low ,SSB beginning to increase (around Blim)
Recruitment has improved in last few years
Discards account for high proportion of catches
Advice is still for no directed fishery and minimise discards
54
56
58
60
62
whiting 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
52
•
•
•
•
•
Total = 6114 fish
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Rockall haddock
Rockall haddock
• Stock has declined in recent years
• F is fairly low (just above target) and SSB currently declining
• A couple of better recruitments in recent years should see stock
improve
• Measures to reduce discards of incoming year classes should be
developed
• Advice is for landings of 2930 t (this represents a 142% increase
on current TAC)
West Coast & northern North
Sea megrim
Catches
Catches
8
7
Discards
6
Landings
5
4
3
2
Same advice as last year:
landings of 5950 t (3 %
below current TAC)
1
0
1985
1991
1997
2003
F/FMSY
1.2
2009
B/BMSY
B/BMSY
Fmsy
F/FMSY
3
Blim
1
MSYBtrigger
2.5
0.8
2
0.6
1.5
0.4
1
0.2
0.5
0
0
1985
1991
1997
2003
2009
1985
1991
1997
2003
2009
Northern hake
Northern hake
hake 1983-1992: length > 30 cm
Total = 513 fish
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
52
52
54
54
56
56
58
58
60
60
62
62
hake 2005-2014: length > 30 cm
Total = 2812 fish
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Northern hake
• Stock has been very high in recent years
• F has decreased but still above target
• Stock predicted to increase again following recent high
recruitment
• Advice is for landings of 78 457 t (this represents a 4% reduction
on current TAC)
West Coast herring
West Coast herring
• Stock considered to be stable but at a low level compared to the
past
• F is fluctuating (around target) and SSB above trigger level
• Recruitment at a low level in recent years
• Management plan advice is for landings of 22690 (reduction of
19% on 2014 TAC)
Blue Ling
Blue Ling
•
•
•
•
•
Stock in good shape
F has been falling for some time, now below Fmsy
Biomass increasing
Recruitment relatively stable throughout time series
Based on MSY approach, catches 2015 not more than 5046
(29% increase)
Ling
Ling
•
•
•
•
•
Stock in quite good shape,
Increasing catch rates imply improving stock biomass
New data do not change general perception
Data limited approach, advice the same as last year
10 800 tonnes (III, IV, VI, VII, VIII, XII, XIV)
Tusk
Tusk
•
•
•
•
•
Stocks generally in quite good shape
Various stock units including ‘other’ areas (includes IV and VI)
New data do not change perception of stock
Advice for ‘other’ in 2012 was for 2 years
Based on data limited approach advice is for catches no more
than 8500 tonnes
Greater Forkbeard
Greater Forkbeard
•
•
•
•
Data limited stock
Based on 4 survey series – stock increasing in recent years
Large increase (86%) between 2009-11 and 2012-13
Under data limited rules implies an increase in catch of 20%
compared to average of last three years – so a TAC of 2628
North Sea
Status
summary
1970
Cod
1980
1990
2000
2010
2000
2010
2000
2010
F
SSB
Haddock
F
SSB
Plaice
F
SSB
Herring
F
SSB
Nephrops
F
Fladen
SSB
Forth of Forth
SSB
Moray Firth
SSB
F
F
Note:
Reference points for whiting not defined
West Coast
1970
Cod
1980
1990
F
SSB
Haddock
F
SSB
Rockall haddock
F
SSB
Herring
F
SSB
Nephrops
F
North Minch
SSB
South Minch
SSB
Clyde
SSB
F
F
Note:
Reference points for whiting not defined
Widely Distributed
1970
Hake
1980
1990
F
SSB
Saithe
F
SSB
Megrim
F
SSB
Mackerel
F
SSB
Note:
Reference points for anglerfish not defined; Assessment and reference points for mackerel under review

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